Some statistics on the AO predictions (606v2 World Tour)

For those who haven't yet done so, please don't forget to submit your predictions before 21:00 GMT today! After this deadline, the thread will be locked by our moderators.

link to Australian Open predictions thread

still 90 minutes left!

only 30 minutes left...

Still time for everyone to change to pick Tsonga as the winner! You'll be soooorrrryyyyyy!

JuliusHMarx wrote:Still time for everyone to change to pick Tsonga as the winner! You'll be soooorrrryyyyyy!

If we do or if we don't??????

carrieg4 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Still time for everyone to change to pick Tsonga as the winner! You'll be soooorrrryyyyyy!

If we do or if we don't??????

Haven't worked that out yet!

No, not Tsonga, Djoko to win! Oh b0ll0x, too late....

Just realised that Wawrinka is playing rubbish so Berdych is likely to make the quarter-finals instead of him, and Del Potro is not making much progress in terms of tennis performance and so Fish might beat him to the quarter-final spot.

Some statistics on the AO predictions submitted:

We have 22 participants. For those who missed the deadline: Indian Wells is your next chance!

Djokovic is the overwhelming favorite, no surprise there. Federer and Murray are predicted by most participants to do better than Nadal (14 think Fed will reach the final, only 5 think Nadal will).
Next up are the players referred to as the 'Wolves' in an earlier thread by invisiblecoolers: Tsonga and Del Potro.
Berdych is seen as a more likely semi-finalist than Ferrer (I guess because Ferrer is unlucky to be in Djokovic' quarter).

Outside of the "fantastic four", only Tsonga is seen as capable of winning the AO: Jo-Wilfried received one bold vote

Quarter-finalist are basically the top 8 with Del Potro replacing Fish. Interesting stat is that 21 (!) people think Del Potro will reach the quarters or better. BTW Djokovic is the only player mentioned by all 22 participants. Only a handful of players outside of the top 10 have been tipped to reach the quarter finals: Gasquet, Dolgopolov, Davydenko (already out), Nalbandian, Wawrinka, Isner and Nishikori.

Interesting times ahead!

Player	Rank	W	RU	SF	QF
Djokovic	#1	12	2	7	1
Federer	#3	4	10	4	3
Murray	#4	3	4	11	4
Nadal	#2	2	3	8	6
Tsonga	#6	1		3	17
Del Potro	#11		2	1	18
Berdych	#7		1	6	11
Ferrer	#5			1	13
Tipsarevic	#9				4
Gasquet	#18				4
Dolgopolov	#13			1
Davydenko	#52			1
Nalbandian	#87			1
Almagro	#10				2
Wawrinka	#22				2
Fish	#8				1
Isner	#17				1
Nishikori	#26				1

After the first round, only one player predicted to reach the quarter-finals has been eliminated...

prostaff85 wrote:After the first round, only one player predicted to reach the quarter-finals has been eliminated...

OK, no need to go on about it!

Sorry Julius it was not my intention to put you in the spotlight!
After the next round there may be more names in red.

I think Del Potro's past reputation precedes his recent form, if you know what I mean ... more people should have gone for Fish based on last years form.

I disagree that Delpo is playing worse than when he won teh USO. I think he can play as well as then if not better.
He did take a set of Djoko at teh DC and ran Nadal very close ddespite being tired and playing against a delirious crowd.

Once again winning in 2009 is not the same as winning in 2012. Just watch the level Tsonga and Murray had to play today to get through. It's tough out there and no way Delpo woud have climbed back up the ranking last year had his form not been as good as 2009.

Don't forget that though he won the USO 09 is was very close to lose it in 3 straight one-sided sets in that final and we woudl not be talking about Delpo as we are now.

He was very good then but he is at least as good now.

You might be right. It's true that the "ante" appears to be being raised - Murray is always saying he has to keep getting stronger and fitter. The recent furore regarding Nadal's comments on Federer are indicating that the top three of Nadal, Djokovic(?) and Murray(?) want to reduce the number of mandatory tournaments per year so that they can continue to (or increase) the physical effort they can put into the tournaments. I wonder whether there will come a time that a match never ends (e.g. the US Open final with Djokovic and Nadal being more fresh) - with a stalemate ensuing.

Hmmm, Mardy Fish the No 8 seed is the first major casualty in the second round in the men's draw. He hasn't played since the World Tour Final last year and his end of season performance was poor - having been injured. This is what it says on the ATP site:

"Extended fine hard-court form at ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Cincinnati, when he beat Nadal 63 64 in the QFs before falling to Murray in the SFs...At the US Open, he lost to Tsonga over five sets in the 4th RD...Fell to Nadal in Tokyo SFs...

Suffered opening-round loss to Tomic in Shanghai (64 16 46) and retired 1st RD in Basel with a left hamstring injury after just one game against Blake...Also retired 3rd RD in Paris with a left abductor injury against Monaco, but still clinched his place at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals courtesy of other results.

On his debut appearance at the circuit finale, went 0-3 in round-robin action, falling to Nadal (62 36 76(3)), Tsonga (76(4) 61) and Federer (61 36 63)...Completed the best season of his career with a 43-25 match record."

So although he had his best season last year his end of year performance was poor, which can be explained through physical impairment and consequent lack of match fitness.

Nore Staat wrote:Just realised that Wawrinka is playing rubbish so Berdych is likely to make the quarter-finals instead of him, and Del Potro is not making much progress in terms of tennis performance and so Fish might beat him to the quarter-final spot.

Wawrinka lost concentration in the 3rd set, but otherwise looked pretty good today against Baghdatis. Next up for him is Almagro, which looks doable as well.
Fish is out and Del Potro has a free path to the quarter finals now. Tough to see him get past Federer for the semis though, but who knows!

I am impressed by Wawrinka.

Usually he sits in Fed's quarter in the Slams and gets knocked out in the QF. Let's see if Nadal can do it this time!

He has got a new racquet and a new clothing sponsor.

Playing at night he will get a good chance!

Wawrinka has only made two grand slam QFs, US Open 2010 and AO 2011, losing both times. He has also reached and been knocked out five times at the fourth round stage. His Grand Slam record last year was:

AO QF
FO 4R
Wim 2R
USO 2R

Interesting article on Nadal from the Telegraph reporter (Simon Briggs). Also an interesting observation on the Falla - Fish match:

"... eighth seed Mardy Fish became the first significant casualty in the men’s draw when he lost in straight sets to Alejandro Falla, the Colombian who is probably best known for taking Federer to a deciding set in the first round of the 2010 Wimbledon Championships.

Speaking afterwards, Fish expressed his exasperation at the repeated appearances of a trainer on court to treat Falla for cramp. “It's my responsibility to put it behind me,” he said, “but I'm a human being. I see that guy's called the trainer three, four times. It's hot, and I'm down two sets to love, and I'm looking for anything to sort of gain the momentum a little bit. I think it had a significant bearing on the third set, for sure.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/australianopen/9021883/Australian-Open-2012-Rafael-Nadal-eases-through-to-third-round-after-straight-set-victory-over-Tommy-Haas.html

ps: and Congratulations to LKillar for calling correctly the Falla-Fish match

Fish is such a nice and fair player. I did not see the match but I woudl certainly agree with him. We can't have players getting massages on court while the other wait under the sun.

When will they finally trade massage and MTOs for points and game?

That would be more exciting than HE even!

Rafael Nadal had one of the easiest victories of the second round, winning in straight sets and only losing 11 games (6-4 6-3 6-4), yet the match lasted 2 hours 29 minutes!

In total there were 174 points played which makes 6 points per game so averaging game wins to 30. That's 52 seconds per point on overall average.

A disgrace to the sport. One day we will wake up to that and wonder how we have allowed a sport to be turned into circus!

52 seconds???

That is utter disgraceful. What in the hell was the umpire doing?

I mean come on, do officials not look at what the average time a 3 set win takes and think that anything longer than 2 hours needs to be looked at?

legendkillar wrote:52 seconds???

That is utter disgraceful. What in the hell was the umpire doing?

I mean come on, do officials not look at what the average time a 3 set win takes and think that anything longer than 2 hours needs to be looked at?

52s is really average for Nadal's matches.

Tenez wrote:

legendkillar wrote:52 seconds???

That is utter disgraceful. What in the hell was the umpire doing?

I mean come on, do officials not look at what the average time a 3 set win takes and think that anything longer than 2 hours needs to be looked at?

52s is really average for Nadal's matches.

I know some of his 4 setters have gone into 4 hours and I raised an eyebrow, but 2 1/2 hours for a 3 setter??

Must be removing all those wedgies!!

Murray took 1 hour and 58 minutes to dispatch his opponent. Albeit conceding 1 game less, that is still 31 minutes less than Nadal.

If you were an official for the tournament what would you say in light of that evidence?

Exactly! those are precious recovery minutes for such a physical player.

OCD...my .....

Tenez wrote:Exactly! those are precious recovery minutes for such a physical player.

OCD...my .....

Let's hope Murray ruffles some feathers in their next encounter

He undoubtebly will. Trust my words!

With the top 4 in the semis, we've also reached the 'business end' of this first 606v2 World Tour event!

Eight (of 22) participants got the semis right, but this only means they have a small head-start. The points system is similar to the Olympics "medal tables" where a single gold medal is better than 20 silver or bronze!

14 people see Federer reaching the final, only 5 predicted Nadal will get there.
Djokovic also got 14 votes to make the final, versus Murray's 7.

Best prediction so far was Nishikori reaching the QF, only one of us saw that coming!

Player	Rank	W	RU	SF	QF
Djokovic	#1	12	2	7	1
Federer	#3	4	10	4	3
Murray	#4	3	4	11	4
Nadal	#2	2	3	8	6
Tsonga	#6	1		3	17
Del Potro	#11		2	1	18
Berdych	#7		1	6	11
Ferrer	#5			1	13
Tipsarevic	#9				4
Gasquet	#18				4
Dolgopolov	#13			1
Davydenko	#52			1
Nalbandian	#87			1
Almagro	#10				2
Wawrinka	#22				2
Fish	#8				1
Isner	#17				1
Nishikori	#26				1

Right! When is the tournament?

The train has left already! Have you changed your mind based on what you've seen so far?

Sorry I meant the "next" tournament.

We're doing only Slams and Masters, so it's going to be Indian Wells!

Nadal's win over Federer has significantly narrowed down the list of potential winners for the first "606v2 World Tour" event:

if Nadal wins the AO, we'll have two winners: teassoc and Mad for Chelsea. Both predicted Nadal to beat Murray in the final, but they will also win in case Nadal beats Djokovic (not predicted by anybody ).
Both got three semi-finalists right and 7 quarter-finalists.

if Djokovic wins the final, sirfredperry will be our first winner. He predicted everything would go exactly according to seeding and thus missed only Nishikori as quarter-finalist. Runner-up would be Nore Staat who predicted this same result for the final, but got "only" 6 quarter-finalists right.

finally if Murray wins his first Slam here in Melbourne, break_in_the_fifth will follow in this footsteps and take his first 606v2 Slam (all 4 SF's correct and 6 QF's)!

Just a brief post here to inform that sirfredperry is our first Slam winner on the 606v2 World Tour!

The only mistake in his predictions was Tsonga being eliminated by Nishikori in the 4th round (in 5 sets). So almost perfect.
Runner-up was Nore Staat who was also very close. I'll publish the full "world rankings" later this week on the main 606v2 World Tour thread.

Thanks everyone for participating and let's see if we can challenge sfp at our next event: Indian Wells in March.

I thought we were going to keep score every event and see who was No 1 at the end of the year.

We are! Or at least every Grand Slam and Masters 1000 event.
So sirfredperry is in the same position as Djoko: great start but there are many more events to come - let's see who's on top at the end of the year!

So by the end of this there's still a chance I could be a slamless no1?

Yes! A kind of Wozniacki

Hope it comes to be, shouldn't be too difficult, loads of points for predicting the winner and only needs someone to do slightly better than you for you to lose. I love how slamless no1's p!ss everyone off whereas I see no problem with it, particularly in the womens game where GS events are basically the same as normal tournaments.