The Murray Conundrum - Has His Time Cometh?

Wow. This Australian Open is now starting to really heat up. Federer and Nadal effortlessly making the quarter finals. Murray seeming finding an easy path after the tricky opening round. Djokovic was coasting and came through a stiff test through that was Hewitt. Now we are at the business end. Djokovic isn't going to find it easy finding his way through the running machine that is Ferrer. Anyone who saw his encounter with Gasquet would agree that brute stamina came through over talent. Federer by large has the most difficult task of the the big 4. Del Potro seemingly back in form and for me is looking like his 2009 best. Nadal will face Berdych. Again not an easy match. Berdych has won 6 out of 6 tiebreaks in this tournament. To me that is a very tall order for Nadal. Then we come to Murray. He will be up against a tired Nishikori. 2 5 setters and a 4 setter. Murray has come through so far un-scathed and to get a retirement at this late stage can only boost his chances come the final week.

I ask is this Murray's time? He will not have the luxury that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic had during their maiden Slam success in facing an opponent in the final who has no Slams behind them. In previous Slam finals Murray has spoke about the strength of the 'era' as a measuring stick to the opposition he faced. Unfortunately for Murray the realisation is that he will need to beat Federer, Nadal or Djokovic for that Slam title. I am hoping if Murray reaches the final that Lendl will be able to have hypnotic effect on him so he will not come out all defenssively, but instead will go for his shots right from the off. Del Potro has done it and came through it. Murray will need to do the same if he is to taste Slam success. This is where Murray has to hold himself together mentally. He must be aware of the position he finds himself in. Facing the lower ranked player left in the draw and physically will be feeling the effects of his long matches. Murray will be fresh physically and will need to make sure he is mentally fresh too. The US Open recently showed a kind draw. Donald Young in the 4th Round and then Isner in the Quarter Finals who was the lowest ranked player. Murray needs to learn from that. Let's hope he will go that one step further.

No doubting Roger Federer has the toughest path from here on in but on the other side of the coin he is the GOAT is he not so where is the problem? I feel the key to his quarter-final is who wins the first set. Whoever does that I believe will go on to win. Nadal will probably have his toughest match so far against Berdych but should come through in three or maybe four sets.

On the other side of the draw, Ferrer will give it his all but his trademark game will not bother Djokovic and I see him coming through in three sets. Andy couldn't have wished for things to turn out better for the QF's match but he must remain focussed on the job in hand to beat Nishikori. I see Andy playing the physical game and draining the last energy out of Kei before moving in for the kill in three or four sets.

Is it Murray's time? I am not convinced the Lendl effect will kick in for a few months and to expect Andy to beat Djokovic (the star player of last year, reigning champion and world No.1) and follow that up by beating probably Nadal or Fed in the final will be a mighty big ask but we shall see.

I think anything more than 3 sets for Murray will be disappointing. Given the form he has shown and that Nishikori has spent more time on court and that he hasn't the game to trouble Murray, I can't see where the 'dangers' are.

As for Federer, he is facing a player that will match him FH for FH and BH for BH. I can't see Djokovic taking Ferrer in 3 sets. If Djokovic dips like his did today, Ferrer will have the stamina to take the game from him.

Nadal will need to play a perfect length and not put anything short to the Berdych FH.

Murray will probably win; it's inevitable, it has to happen sooner or later. I must resign myself to this fact.

Most intriguing. I have rarely seen Murray look so assured in a Grand Slam tournament (perhaps French Open 2011, before he met Nadal or Wimbledon 2009 before he met Roddick). Hewitt has shown there is a little question mark over Djokovic, and the importance of keeping the pressure up against him, even if Djokovic looks at first to be impregnable. Hewitt basically ran out of puff.

The other half of the draw, Del Potro, Federer, Nadal, Berdych - they all might knock seven bells out of each other ... If Berdych were to somehow knock out Nadal then I could possibly see a path through to the final for Federer ... but I can't see him overcoming both Del Potro and Nadal.

Exciting times for a Murray fan it seems.

Nishikori would be a bit of a banana skin if he slipped up there. Really surprised he beat Tsonga and difficult to see him likewise tripping up Murray.

Federer vs. Del Potro is the pick of all the QFs especially if del boy is somewhere back to his best form. Still you'd have to see Andy in all likelihood beating both Djokovic and probably Federer - both for the first time in a slam. That's a big ask but maybe his time has come.

My cautiousness stems from past experiences though with Andy. Also it is a little bit of a concern that he hasn't had a tough workout so far and if he beats Nishikori in straight sets he may go into the semis lacking competitive match practice. Who knows what will happen but agree the pick of the QF's are Federer V Del Potro.

Murrays route to the final has indeed been imperious.

Despite the very best that Harrison (rank 77), Vasselin (rank 101), Llodra (rank 46) and Kukushkin (rank 92) could throw at him he has stayed mentally strong and his on court behaviour has been impeccable (apart from the small forgivable wobble in that first set against Harrison). Llendl's magical influence is plainly there for all to see.

Murray's talents are such that grand slam tennis is so easy it sometimes becomes boring.

“It’s just boring,” said Murray, who led 6-1, 6-1, 1-0 when Kukushkin gave up
the fight.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/australianopen/9031839/Andy-Murray-reaches-Australian-Open-quarter-finals-after-Mikhail-Kukushkin-retires-injured.html

These are indeed very exciting times to be a Murray fan.

hawkeye wrote:
Murray's talents are such that grand slam tennis is so easy it sometimes becomes boring.

“It’s just boring,” said Murray, who led 6-1, 6-1, 1-0 when Kukushkin gave up
the fight.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/australianopen/9031839/Andy-Murray-reaches-Australian-Open-quarter-finals-after-Mikhail-Kukushkin-retires-injured.html

Don't worry HE, I'm here to put your quote in context again

/www1.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/7450378/-Boring-win-pleases-Murray

Clearly he was saying it was boring for the audience and neither player was enjoying it because Kukushkin was unable to move. Again less juicy but more accurate.

As far as his chances looking ahead, one day at a time.

Ferrer has the stamina, but lacks the power to hurt Djokovic too much. Perhaps a set from Djokovic is all he will take.

Murray was unfortunate in a sense to not get match practice against Kukushkin, who he knows relatively well (from Brisbane). He may prove too much for Kei under the tutelage of Lendl.

Federer played well against Tomic and Del Potro could be considered an experienced version of Tomic. A good match to look forward to.

Berdych can overpower Nadal, but cannot last a five-setter, so that would be interesting to see.

Very nice tennis at the business end of the slam.

Hawkeye I need to clarify one thing.

Are you actually praising Andy through the tournament so far?

Hmm carrieg 4. Not convinced. Andy wears his heart on his sleeve and still seems to be trying to articulate honestly how he felt.

Interestingly Lendl in the article is confident of being here for the long haul but then again you wouldn't expect him to say anything else would you? I just hope some of his experience is rubbing off on Andy and he continues this more mature approach.

"one day at a time"

Now you sound like Andy's coach!

LF,

Indeed it is nice tennis coming towards the end of the Slam. All 4 matches I would gladly pay to see.

CC,

I do undertsand the caution you display, but in fairness it is good he is facing a lower ranked opponent after his match with Kukushkin. It is good that he gradually builds his form towards the latter stages.

Oh Hawkeye you're so naughty but wickedly funny.

I can just imagine the looks on Crag and Banbro's face.

LK. you know him/her better than that. Oh the irony.

Anyway, wrt the OP. I think Murray has a great chance. He does look that little bit calmer but meaner.

Did anyone watch his studio interview on Eurosport today? He made some very interesting points particulary about playing more aggressively; it confirmed what I had been thinking. He said that it feels quite natural now to him to stand close to the baseline and infact feels unnatural when he stands far back. That this is something he has been consciously working on for a while more recently, whereas is the past he had opted to stay back because it was, on the whole, working for him and therefore he didn't feel the urgenvy in trying to implement this mindset more frequently.

I think that bodes well for his chances. He will definitely give Novak a run for his money, even moreso without the pressure of having to play him in a final.

As for the final, I would imagine he would rather play Rafa than Roger at this juncture.

Of course Ferrer, followed by Del Po or berdych would be even better.



emancipator

Of course, words are one thing and action is another; it remains to be seen if he can translate this mindset onto court success against the top three.

Did anyone watch his studio interview on Eurosport today? He made some very interesting points particulary about playing more aggressively; it confirmed what I had been thinking. He said that it feels quite natural now to him to stand close to the baseline and infact feels unnatural when he stands far back. That this is something he has been consciously working on for a while more recently, whereas is the past he had opted to stay back because it was, on the whole, working for him and therefore he didn't feel the urgency in trying to implement this mindset more frequently.

I saw that interview, and like you I was somewhat delighted that he is know started to step inside the court and take the ball on.

His FH, looks 'Clijsters' like when he hits it from a vertical stance.

a "vertical" stance

Can't actually think of any other type - unless you've been drinking or something!

newballs wrote:a "vertical" stance

Can't actually think of any other type - unless you've been drinking or something!

eg. Static.

I can't see any other way of summing it up.

lk thanks for the clarification

If he faces Djokovic, he gets caned in the semi's. Djokovic is he ultimate clutch player now. Today's performance won't matter to him.

If he faces Federer, the genius of the great man is too much for Murray's limited gameplay.

If he faces Nadal, again he loses. Nadal has too much power and can bully Murray.

If he faces Del Potro, it would be a close match. I'd hope Delpo won.

If he faces Ferrer, Berdych etc, he wins.

I think Murray would stand the least chance against Federer, and then Nadal and I still think, though less than 50%, he can beat Djokovic despite last years final where I thought he just beat himself. Everyone else he should be fine against.

Surely Murray's biggest obstacles are Nadal and Djokovic winning this title. Firstly Djokovic beat him easily in straight sets on the very same court just a year ago.

Nadal dominates the head to head vs Murray, I think 13- 5 or something along those lines?? He also beat Murray in all 3 grand slam matches they played last year. Something tells me Nadal is the last person Murray wants to play

slashermcguirk wrote:Surely Murray's biggest obstacles are Nadal and Djokovic winning this title. Firstly Djokovic beat him easily in straight sets on the very same court just a year ago.

Nadal dominates the head to head vs Murray, I think 13- 5 or something along those lines?? He also beat Murray in all 3 grand slam matches they played last year. Something tells me Nadal is the last person Murray wants to play

But didn't Murray beat Nadal in their last tennis match at the end of last year ?

Assuming Murray gets past Nishkori & Djoker takes care of Ferrer, which they will IMO, Murray again finds himself in a familiar spot.

Does Murray have the game to beat 2 of the top 3 in a grandslam in consecutive matches? Probably not if all of them play close to their best.He needs some luck ... maybe like Nadal and Federer 5 setter lasting 5 hours , an injured djoker etc.

It will all depend if he has the courage of his new convictions to take the ball earlier

I stated ages ago, to much mirth, that Murray would become an Agassi type player, i.e. take years to work out his true game and then cash in

My issue is if any of the Top 3 start to serve wide and accurate - fatal for a returner standing close to the baseline, he will then revert to type

I actaually do not think Nadal here is a huge issue. Murray knows he can beat him on hard courts and for me his best performance in a Slam was here two years ago against the great Spaniard

He's close and sooner or later he will win one, simply because he's likely to remain way better than the players below him for some considerable time yet. if the best the yoof have to offer is Raonic, Tomic and Harrison then Nole and Murray will be licking their lips at constant forays deep into Slams, for the next 5 years

But first let's hope for another 'boring' match tonight and a win

In the past Murray would have a tough match in about R3 or R4. He might even be beaten into submission by a hard hitting Gonzalez or a Cilic, at the very least he would have a tough match maybe a 5-setter at this stage (Gasquet, Wawrinka). But these days it's cruise control to the semis.

Ban
You got your wish - three straightforward sets, even (according to Andy in his interview) not serving very well. As others thought, Nishikori didn't have enough in his game to really hurt Andy.

So it's all gone just about as well as could be hoped for Andy in reaching the semi final - lost the first set of the tournament, but since then he's been comfortable against all his opponents, and he hasn't had to face any real danger men. Now of course it gets more difficult - probably Djokovic, who looked in imperious form until the Hewitt match, as the semi final opponent, and then Federer or Nadal in the final. Fed in particular has looked to be in fine form this tournament. Andy at his best CAN beat all of these, but wouldn't be favourite in either match - I think with his current form it's about a 1 in 3 chance of him winning each match.

Henman Bill wrote:In the past Murray would have a tough match in about R3 or R4. He might even be beaten into submission by a hard hitting Gonzalez or a Cilic, at the very least he would have a tough match maybe a 5-setter at this stage (Gasquet, Wawrinka). But these days it's cruise control to the semis.

Yes, because the difference is he's luckily avoided playing any such names.

dummy_half wrote: Andy at his best CAN beat all of these, but wouldn't be favourite in either match - I think with his current form it's about a 1 in 3 chance of him winning each match.

Sounds about right.

I think there's no need to be pessimistic about Andy's chances against Djokovic. In fact, the only time in recent matches that Djokovic has beaten him easily was the AO final last year.
Other straight sets losses happened 5 years ago i.e. not too relevant.

I think Murray needs to up the anti. For me, he needs to serve at 65% at least against the top 3. If he is to win, it needs another gear shift. Big time. Take nothing away from him, it is good he got through in 3, but if I was Lendl I would be proper peed off!!

I think Murray has a great shot against Djokovic.

What would concern me is that he hasn't been challenged en route to this clash and now he will be up against the best player in the world, ie a massive jump up in class. How will he respond when the pressure starts building as it inevitably will?

He has to step in and be assertive; I don't think he can win a war of attrition from the baseline against Djokovic. Both players need to do this since they are both inclined towards counterpunching. I think the winner will be the one who can take this mindset onto court and implement it best.

However, Djokovic is still a pretty strong favourite



emancipator