Masters betting prices.

People

Only a couple of weeks now until what most people consider to be the 'real' start of the season.

I'd like to start a thread on betting prices for the Masters. I'm not looking to start a discussion about who is or isn't going to win etc. All I'm looking for is some good tips (price and bookie please) that you think offers a bit of value. Either E/W or to win.

I always have a flutter so any sensible suggestions welcomed

Just been looking at paddypower.com and found the following prices:

GMac and Dustbin both 25's. GMac has the silky putting touch required and Dustbin the length to overpower the course.

Kuchar is 33's, been playing very solidly so far this year and Sergiois 50's. Looks like he is starting to find a bit of confidence in his game again and the new claw grip for his putting has made a big difference. Would he be a sentimental bet or do you think he has a chance?

D4S I'm having a stab at Sergio because I have a sneaky feeling that he's almost ready for the comeback. I also think theres a bit of sentimental stuff about an aniversary of Seve/Olly win this year.

Robert karlson is another outsider who looks like he's almost back after his illness last year

Its always surpised me that Luke Donald does not do better at Augusta. His short game is magnificent. I know his long game is getting better especially now he is using TM's R11. And short hitters have won here before. Would be a good bet around 33/1 mark ?

Nick Watney is around 25s also and i think he has to be a good bet. He has the length, is a good putter and is in good form (lowest scoring average on the US tour at 68.92 - not bad!)

Been looking at the odds on William Hill just now and seeing that Goosen is at 50/1 is a great bet even for an each way, his record for T10's at Augusta is superb and his high draw shot is perfect for the place.

Vijay is at 66/1 is also a great bet, he is in good form this year hitting it well and putting solid, and he knows how to Win at Augsuta.

The other outside with good odds this year is Adam Scott, he has for so long flattered to deceive yet this year his long game is better than it's ever been, hits it long and pretty straight, and since switching to the long putter his putting has been superb and at 66/1 is worth a punt.

Finally 33/1 for Justin Rose is another good bet for a high finish has a good game for Augusta this 4 is where my money goes this year for the fairly long odds but some good finishes this year and i can see it being one of tem for some reason

Some prices from victorchandler.com - each way available at 1/4 odds for top 5 finish.

Tiger 6/1 ... you're having a laugh
Hefty Lefty 8/1 ... ditto
LW 14/1 ... fancy him for a major this year but not at that price. No value
Kaymer 16/1 ... as per LW
Watney 16/1 ... another fancied runner but no value in that price
McIlroy, Gmac, Dustbin and Luke all 25/1 .. now we start to get to some odds with value. Gmac and Luke at that price starting to look attractive. Not so much BabyMac and Dustbin
Casey 28/1 ... tempting but not tempting enough
Kooch and Justin Rose 33/1 ... <pensive look>
Mahan, Poults, Furyk, Bubba and Adam Scott 40/1 ... fancy Poults for a bit of a comeback at some point but think Augusta may be just too soon

Some selected others

Rickieeeeeeee 66/1 ... that could be tempting for a smaller side bet
Manassero 100/1 .. he's not even qualified yet but not a bad price for an early E/W punt
Ross Fisher 100/1 ... seems generous
"Marvin Logie-Baird" 100/1 ... Martin who?
MAJ 125/1 .. that would make a nice little E/W payout
Sandy Lyle 1000/1 ... *cough*

I did notice those odds for MAJ. If he can get in contention then he can be very dogged so could make a good E/W punt.

Fowler? Again, could have a high finish although can't see him winning so another possible E/W

I'm starting to like the look of Mahan. Think for me I'll back a Brit/Euro to win and maybe some each way on the septics. There's no way I'll be sat on the couch on the Sunday night cheering on a yank!

I might put some money on Laird, because of all the fuss on 606 about him, I find myself enjoying his missed putts too much! Feeling guilty about that so if I put some cash on him that might change!

Adam scott is a really good call because he now seems to be confident on the greens and is dropping putts again. hate the long putter but it works for him and he seems to have a great swing with it. Great results recently and is on the best form for a couple of years, as it seemed he was vanishing.

I fancy Woods in this but his odds are a disgrace, Rose is my outsider

Drive:
I wandered into Ladbrokes yesterday and asked them to source me odds on an unnamed first time major winner to triumph at the Masters. I've got a sneaking feeling that someone who hasn't won a major before will do it this year. I'll let you know what odds they give me nearer the event. I just think there is a mass 'changing of the guard' going on at the moment and a lot of the 35s and overs are being usurped by the young guns

Kaymer on SkyBet is 18/1 which to me is ridiculous odds for the world number 1. Each way pays down to 5th so you would get 9/2 if he just has a solid week. Also has the game - long off the tee, solid on the greens and knows very much how to win.

Rose has led the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds at The Masters in the last few years so would again be a good each way bet. Came 3rd last week and I think is 25/1.

My outsider bet is Garcia each way at 55/1 on SkyBet. I know that he has always had putting problems but he seems to be playing well this year and at just over 12/1 for a top 5 finish there may well be a chance to lay him back out if he gets into contention. He may even go the distance now that nobody expects him to...

Biggest lay of the event - Woods at 8/1 favourite. He can't putt or chip so as much as he can praise the way he is swinging it after nudging another -3/4 on a no pressure sunday to come 15th like he has all year, he will not add to his tally on this one.

sharrison01 wrote:Biggest lay of the event - Woods

Not the first time THAT has been said!

Of the Europeans I reckon it's time GMac has a big result - and many people have mentioned Donald. Even at 18/1 I think Kaymer is too short odds to be any real value in a field of that calibre

Of the Yanks I have a sneaky feeling that Rickie "Ronald McDonald" Fowler is due a big result and ditch his spice boy image

Like the chances of Rose & Watney ( price too short) and for a couple of outside punts Immleman @ 80/1, seems to be regaining some form and Couples @ 100/1 who's Masters record is fantastic ( still cry over my betting slip from last year when I backed him e/w at 150/1 1st 5 - finished 6th!!)

sharrison01 wrote:Kaymer on SkyBet is 18/1 which to me is ridiculous odds for the world number 1. Each way pays down to 5th so you would get 9/2 if he just has a solid week. Also has the game - long off the tee, solid on the greens and knows very much how to win.

He has never made a cut here though. He has all the tools for it, I backed him myself on his first two visits at pretty long odds. Gave him a miss at a price in the 30-40s last year and the result was the same. If I recall correctly, he has missed the cut by a stroke each time. So in the words of Duncan Bannantyne... at 18/1 'I'm out'.

I reckon Luke Donald is much better value at 25/1, he is in good form and been T3 and T10 here before. G-Mac is 35/1 and he has two mc and a T17 in his 3 visits, if either of those guys have a reasonably good week they should be in or around the places.

nixonuae wrote: for a couple of outside punts Immleman @ 80/1, seems to be regaining some form

I suggested on the old 606 that he was coming in under the radar so far this year, he was 100/1 with Bet Fred at the start of the week - 20 points more than the next best and I see they have trimmed him now. Even last year when he had next to no form he still managed a 20th at Augusta. The course sets up well for him.

Redrage wrote:

sharrison01 wrote:Kaymer on SkyBet is 18/1 which to me is ridiculous odds for the world number 1. Each way pays down to 5th so you would get 9/2 if he just has a solid week. Also has the game - long off the tee, solid on the greens and knows very much how to win.

He has never made a cut here though. He has all the tools for it, I backed him myself on his first two visits at pretty long odds. Gave him a miss at a price in the 30-40s last year and the result was the same. If I recall correctly, he has missed the cut by a stroke each time. So in the words of Duncan Bannantyne... at 18/1 'I'm out'.

I reckon Luke Donald is much better value at 25/1, he is in good form and been T3 and T10 here before. G-Mac is 35/1 and he has two mc and a T17 in his 3 visits, if either of those guys have a reasonably good week they should be in or around the places.

I also considered Kaymer's two missed cuts but don't really see that as any reason for him not to win. Augusta National is a course that requires some experience to do well round. A certain Mr Woods missed the cut in '96 and then broke every record under the sun the following year.

Donald is interesting at 25/1. Traditionally not a place for shorter hitters but he seems to be keeping it nice and straight at the moment and certainly has the short game. I just can't see G-Mac as a Masters winner as he's maybe just a bit scrappy for Augusta. His chipping and putting are sound enough but he seems to just be all over the show at the moment and for Augusta I just think that your whole game needs to be solid and it's a tough place to grind your way round, which is how I think of G-Mac's game. I'll probably back him for The Open though...

sharrison

I'm liking the look of GMac and it's because of his putting as you mention. He is an exceptional holer out and I think that's crucial at Augusta as very often chipping to the 10-15 feet range is considered a good result. Come the end of the week, he'll be very high up in that stats category, as will the winner.
Loooook will be in the mix (hopefully!) and I think will be a good e/w bet @25's Scott's putting is also looking a lot better with the broomhandle, he would be a very popular winner I think.

And finally, what about Sergio? Long and short game are excellent and so far this year he seems to be putting an awful lot better. Does he have the guts for a fight on the Sunday night?

I've always thought that the winner of the masters was never the best putter (although it was important) but rather the best mid-iron player. The course has an emphasis on the tee shot it's true but the severe slopes and high speeds of the greens means that hitting average mid irons onto the green was never enough. You had to be knocking down flagsticks in the 160 - 200 range.

You could compete missing the small target area around the pin and two putting... but you could never expect to hole a series of monster putts and get into contention that way.