England vs Wales - Match ups.

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The Back Three

Wales Likely - North - Halfpenny - Cuthbert.

England Likely: Ashton - Foden - Strettle

England's back three contains more pace, whilst Foden on his day can be electric, although was poor against Italy and Brown will feel unlucky to miss out, Ashton has looked out of sorts on the left wing, whilst Strettle has been solid if not spectacular. The Welsh wings will prove a real handful for England and they need to find a way to negate them. North is world class in attack - he has it all, pace, power and vision, however his defensive work-rate may need work on, whilst Cuthbert is also fast and powerful. Halfpenny has been goal kicking well, he's looked mostly solid under the high ball and there is no doubt he has gas and is creative in attack. Therefore I'd have to say that Wales have the edge here.

Centres

Wales Likely: Roberts - Davies

England Likely: Barritt - Tuilagi/Farrell - Tuilagi

The Welsh centre partnership is extremely potent and many have labelled both Davies and Roberts as a future Lions centre pairing. Davies is in the form of his life, both players have a physical presence and are strong ball carriers, both have a high defensive work-rate and both are surprisingly fast. England on the other hand must pick Tuilagi as he has the x-factor and could potentially damage Wales (both in attack and defence!) the problem is, who to play him with. If England pick Barritt at 12 they have a rock wall defensively and a player who will aim to get you across the gainline in a one dimensional manner. If England pick Farrell at 12, they can rely on his composed goal kicking, and in attack he may offer more creativity than Barritt although hasn't really had the chance to show this against Scotland and Italy, there will also be question marks surrounding whether his defence will be able to cope with the likes of North, Roberts and Davies running at him. Therefore I would pick Barritt and Tuilagi in the centres, I feel the could combine well together and would be rock solid defensively. Wales have the edge here by a clear margin.

Half Backs

Wales Likely: Phillips - Priestland

England Likely: Dickson - Hodgson/Youngs - Flood/Dickson - Flood

Both Welsh half backs are extremely dangerous, in defence Phillips acts as an extra flanker, whilst in attack he can ball carry effectively and provide good service. Priestland attacks the gainline, has a very strong kicking game and is solid in defence. England have a tough choice to make regarding scrum half - Youngs has been out of sorts, whilst Dickson has looked lively when he has come on and is buzzing for a start. Arguably the most important decision England need to make is at fly half, between Flood and Hodgson. Hodgson hasn't done anything wrong, he defended very well against Scotland and Italy, he didn't have the burden of goal kicking, whilst he has scored two opportunist charge down tries in two games, although he has struggled to ignite the England backline. I'd go with Flood, simply as Flood is an established international goal kicker - which means England can have Barritt and Tuilagi in the centres, whilst Flood also has the ability to get the backline moving and he can bring the best out of Ben Youngs and Manu Tuilagi. Tough call on Hodgson though. Wales again have the edge at half back.

Back Row

Wales Likely: Warburton (c) - Faletau - Lydiate

England Likely: Robshaw (c) - Morgan - Croft

Wales have potentially the best back row in world rugby. Lydiate is a traditional blindside who carries hard, has a huge defensive work-rate and does the grafting. Faletau has an even higher defensive work-rate than Lydiate which really says something, and he is a huge ball carrier, at 21 his potential is ridiculous. Warburton is also a fantastic player already, he is fast, powerful and can compete with the best in the world at turning the ball over at the breakdown. England in the back row are a work in progress, Robshaw playing at 7 is a traditional blindside - his work-rate is phenominal, however he lacks the scavenging skills and pace of an openside. Croft is an unorthodox blindside, who tends to go missing in games, however on his day he can be very effective, and his lineout skills are unquestioned. Morgan is a direct, powerful number 8 with a good defensive work-rate and deserves a chance to start. Again Wales have the edge here.

Second Row

Wales Likely: Evans - Jones

England Likely: Botha - Palmer

Evans is a solid lock, who tackles hard and carries well in the tight, whilst Jones looks a reborn player in the second row at the minute and really acts as an extra flanker around the pitch. England will look to gain the upper hand in the lineout with Palmer calling the shots and Croft able to help out, whilst Botha will look to make his physical presence felt around the park. The engine room of England's scrum may also be more effective than the Welsh with Botha a particularly strong scrummager. Therefore I feel England have the edge here.

Front Row

Wales Likely: Jenkins - Bennett - Jones

England Likely: Corbisiero - Hartley - Cole

There is no doubt on his day Jenkins is the best loosehead prop in the world especially around the park with his ball carrying, defence and handling particularly impressive. Jones is a powerful tighthead and Bennett may need to work on his consistency in the lineout, where England will target him. England's front row is also a work in progress - Corbisiero, Hartley and Cole have all scrummaged well against the Scots and Italians. Hartley has been very effective in the loose, his lineout has mostly been impressive, whilst Corbisiero and Cole will want to make more of an impression around the park. Even call in this department.

Conclusion

Wales have the upper hand in most departments, however England will look to dominate in the set-piece and if the right selections are made I can see England potentially pulling off an upset. (Funny to say that about a home game at Twickenham) Maybe I am just living in hope.

Robshaw's Barmy Army.

Good OP and sums things up quite well - In regards to Wales lineout I think it's still shaky, even though we only lost 3 each game (I think), but I'd imagine it would improve with Owens in the side as although he can be shaky when his throwing is on form he can be great and every throw can be dead on. My worry is that with out a settled 2 even if Rees comes back, and with another change in the 2nd row/lineout captain - it will mean we'll have some badly executed set piece moves.

But still I think we'll def have the advantage in the backs, just see if England get an advantage in the front 5 and how well they use it.

It'll be a really close game and very intense, but I'm a lot more confident that usual going there, which means I think we'll scrape it

luckless_pedestrian wrote:

eirebilly wrote:i really hope Wales get lots of possesion because you are playing some draw droppinginly good rugby

You slag!

Yeah but you love me

cheers dreamer -

England fans - do you think you'll create lots with 10. Farrel 12. Barritt 13. Tuilagu? Or do you think England will adopt a defensive, play the percentages and look to win the setpiece battle?

Am interested to see how you lot feel the game will go, as if you look to unleash big players like Barritt, Tuilagu and Foden then it could make it a really exciting game

It's those chaps you wear, Billy.

luckless_pedestrian wrote:It's those chaps you wear, Billy.

suits you sir

I think we'll definitely create more with Tuilagi playing at 13 than with our current starting 15. Both Barritt and Tuilagi draw in defenders, which could leave open channels for Stretts and Ashton (if indeed, they do start). Manu can also make something from nothing, so will hopefully present England with a bit more space. Not sure about Farrell at 10 yet to be honest. Rather Hodgson or Flood there, with Farrell as the bench option.

Thanks for getting it back on track rugbydreamer

To all those chaps bemoaning the "derailing of the thread" just ignore the wums. It's easy. There i've said it.

I expect Wales to beat us. Convincingly.

For England I say play Farrell at 10 with Barrit and Tuilagi in the centres and here's how i get there...

1. Were likely to lose this game anyway whoever we pick. We must pick a team to have best chance of winning this game but also one for the next 3 matches.

2.Inside centre has been England's main problem position since the retirements of Catt and Greenwood. Barrit looks the part. Give him an extended run there and see how he goes.

3. Farrell's long term future i see at 10. If he's good enough he's old enough. I do not see him as a long term 12. He lacks size and running threat. His composure and excellent kicking skills make him a 10 if anything at international level. The jury is out on the "if anything at international" part. He needs a go at 10 and well have Dickson there to hopefully give him good service. His defence in 10 channel is a welcome bonus for Wales.

4. Flood should be eased in off the bench. It is too much to ask him to step straight into 10 in this match with kicking duties. We need one of Farrell or Flood to kick goals. I've said its too much for Flood at this time so Farrell it has to be.

5. Ditto for Hodgson/ Farell.

6. Flood at 10 and Farell at 12 is not an option = too lightweight in defence + not sufficient running threat to interest Wales back row in attack. Tuilagi would be repeatedly gang tackled out of the game.

7. Tuilagi is our best outside centre. He is match fit after Sunday's game for Leicester and showed enough form to get in. He offers attacking and defensive threat and is a bullawark against the bohemoth welsh backs. He must play.

8. I think that Barrit Tuilagi is our best centre combination. Barrit CAN pass so relax people Noon Tindall this is not!

I'm a little confused by your comments - Rugbydreamer - Enforcer

The general feeling on this boards and else where are that Wales are the best team at he moment in the NH, plus many pundits say the same thing.

My personal view is that Wales may be the form team but since when has that won anything, rugby can be a funny old game sometimes and in my experience past performances don't lie, Wales haven't won anything yet.

I'm fed up with people assuming my responses are there to wind people up when they are not, its my point of view and this is a discussion board is it not?

I would like to see Foden brought into the attacking line by Barritt and Tuilagi to be honest. I think that he is Englands best attacking option.

eirebilly wrote:

Adam wrote:

eirebilly wrote:Adam, i see what you are saying and in a way agree with you but i do feel that England will need the physical presance of Tuilagi to start. For me its all about Flood v's Farrell.

Stranger things have happened (he did select a guy with 1 cap as his skipper), but I just can't see Lancaster chucking Farrell the starting 10 shirt yet. But then has Flood shown enough form? Honestly, I'd stick with Hodgson to start, Flood on the bench...

Normally i would agree with you but i dont think that Hodgsons defence is as good as it once was and i seriously believe that defence is the key to any possible English victory.

Na, I disagree with you here mate. Firstly, Hodgson is a much better defender than he's ever been. His defence was terrible, but - whilst he's never going to be a destructive defender - he's really worked on it at Sarries and is now pretty competent. Also, defence is at least as much about the system as the player(s). Hodgson/Farrell/Barritt has not only stood pretty firm in the opening couple of games, but is known to function well at club level. Defence-wise, sticking with these three would be the least risky strategy - and I agree that how England defend in the fisrt half will be key to them standing a chance in this game.

I just think that, generally, people are over-optimistic about players returning to the side from injury hitting form immediately. It rarely happens - much less risky to stick with the incumbents and introduce Flood and Tuilagi from the bench (nice and early, I might add, depending on how the game's going).

Foden's mistake against Italy was a clear indicator that the guy is frustrated and is forcing it to much, give him the ball in a little space and yes his the best weapon England have, if Farrell and Barritt can't do it then we have to find someone who will.

Ashton needs a rocket up his ass, he needs a performance more than anyone IMO.

I think that if England go out to play defence and contain the Welsh backline they will be on a hiding to nothing. They need to score tries and they won't do that with Barritt. I hope they come out to play an attacking game because it could be the match of the tournament if they do.

HERSH

totally agree abotu Ashton. He is well off form. Who could England replace him with?

mckay1402 wrote:HERSH

totally agree abotu Ashton. He is well off form. Who could England replace him with?

Sharples!!

@Hersh; I think Foden was forcing that pass too much yes, but he hasn't been in this habit for a while at all. I think he forced that pass as a result of his frustration at the earlier try-which was no one's fault, just horrendous bad luck and a ricochet!

Sharples deserves a go.

I think Ashton has lost his drive and maybe a place on the bench will help him focus

It's very unfair to be pointing the finger at England's outside backs. I don't want to harp on here, but the game plan has been very narrow so far. If the ball isn't making it to the wing and the centers aren't breaking the gain line then there's very little that can be done from out wide. Foden had a crack against Italy and found his loose fowards absent from a supporting role and hence the result was a try to Italy. We've also fallen back into a very kick-chase oriented game and on the whole the kicking hasn't been great. Largely aimless hoofs down the middle. It'll be very interesting to see how Lancaster tries to take on Wales. I would expect more kicking early on and probing the line out, put the pressure on and then a lot of close work in the forwards. Conditions depending, I don't think we'll see many opportunities for the back three until the game opens up in the second half. Then it will be about conditioning and fitness, we'll see just where the two teams are at. If we can wear out Wales with a battering close game in the first half, we might just finally be able to see a bit of action from the back.

We will have to agree to disagree on this then Adam. I just dont see Hodgson as a very strong defender and his kicking is not as good as Farrells and that could prove important.

Tuilagi and Barritt would make a great centre partnership in my view so can only see that the competition is between Flood and Farrell and Flood did not look impressive on the weekend.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but it's Twickers. Teams get Twickers jitters. There is no such thing as a foregone conclusion in this one.

Sackey ? Varndel ?

Starting with Flood would be a gamble, his not ready yet.

IMO a good 6 nations for England this year is winning one of our next three games, I know some of you won't think like this but until we have a confirmed new coach, structure etc... then I think its the best we can hope for.

Who would you want to beat most out of Wales, France or Ireland?

From a rugby point of view I'd like to see a winner takes all game between Wales and France

plus I think we owe Ireland one.

Eirebilly and Adam,

Hodgson's main limitation is not his defence although it has been questioned a lot and more based on the past than the present i think.

His main limitation is his lack of running threat at 10. It might just be a personal preference of mine but i believe that you MUST have a 10 that interests the opposition back row in defence. AND a 12 that does the same.

If you dont then what you have is a defence that will slide out and smash anyone that you DO try to use as a ball carrying threat. It is just to easy to defend against.

Flood can playing flat offer a threat of a half break at least. Hodgson used to offer a threat. Farrell - i dont know yet ......and perhaps his newness to the scene warrants some backrow attention.


Barrit does. So bare minimum he plays 12.

The way to unleash Foden, Ashton and Strettle??

Provide running threats on the inside who can pass.

8 - Morgan
9 - In form Youngs wdve been ideal Dickson will get the ball moving at least.
10 - Farrell
12 Barrit
13 Tuilagi

That is enough to keep inside defenders honest!!

Well, we can hope for 3 wins surely HERSH.

I think the teams are closer this year than for some time. We certainly have the players to win all 3.

If we get past Wales this weekend, then just watch the expectation turn to grandslam, even though it's still France and Ireland on the list - mostly because both of them will now play a compressed schedule and we'll be at home for the final weekend.

I would be tempted to attack Wales at source and pick an entire reserve front row. Normal starting front row to give it a real lash and then bring on Stevens and Sheridan with 20 minutes to go. Farrell at 10 with Barrett and Tuilagi and then Hodgson to come off the bench and change the style of game later on. Drop Croft and Youngs as they cannot still be picked for poor performances. Tempted to chuck Lawes in at 6.

Wales should still win but at least they should know they have been in a battle.

Pessimist! We've got the players to take them, you have to believe it. Look down the likely team sheets and tell me where there's a clear advantage to Wales? and if it's "on form" or on potential ability/historical ability.

Just as the England cricket side slumped to series defeat and then bounced back as a different unit in the one-dayers, I can see the same side suddely producing its potential. And where is this ever more likely than the first home game of the season?

My views exactly Triangulation. For me it was always going to be a Flood v Farrell for the 10 and with Flood not playing that well it has to be Farrell at 10.

I am not suggesting that England go out and try to defend Wales off the park because that wont end well, i am saying that England do need to have a strong defence to counter Wales strong attack.

HERSH. As much as i hate this but i think that this year will be Englands year to beat Ireland but only because its in Twickers.

hugehandoff

im all for this kind of bold shock and awe approach it sends shivers up my spine.

i wouldnt drop croft though. one of wales possible weaknesses is lineout. we need hin to attack them there.

lawes could warrant a start but also there is a strong argument for unleashing him off the bench when the welsh start trying to crank it up in the last quarter. he has a superb workrate but also one or two juddering hits from him could end an attack there and then.

Wales approach to games so far has been 60 minutes of softening up. running their opponents all over the place with as much ball in play time as possible followed by devastating scoring bursts against tiring defences when the game opens up.

England's best hope may well be to kick the leather off the ball with strong kick chase and set piece game for as long as possible. Reduce the ball in play time. Minimise any softening up.

That plus some inspiration from somone as i dont think well win without at least 2 tries.

What i have seen as being Wales' worst aspect of this 6N is the kicking away of possesion. I have no idea how many times that they have broken the golden rule of kicking away first phase possesion after a turnover but it must be staggeringly high. If they do that against England and give Foden the chance to run in broken play then they may be shocked.

That said, Englands forwards will have to be alot more mobile in getting to foden (or any other player) if England make a line break.

Selection this week is going to be very interesting indeed. I would be surprised if SL even kept an unchanged team, but I do hope that some of these changes are made. Players coming off the bench do tend to make an impact as they can see where things need changing plus their adrenalin is flowing freely! Croft or Lawes would do well coming off the bench, but I do think that Lawes would be a better starter. And the way Flood played yesterday means he should not play - he needs more game time.

Has to be kicks for touch, and deep touch to prevent the quick lineouts. We should relentlessly and ruthlessly target this weakness. If it proves early on we have no domination afterall then be prepared to change the game. t might also be worth dropping some short chips in behind the Welsh backline early on - they're obessessed with rushing the defensive line and with bulk at the moment and it's something that I haven't seen any of their opponents try with any conviction (or execution) yet. Big guys turning all afternoon will slow down their rush defense and also tire these guys out. Test their ability to get down on the ball. If nothing else, it will tie them in for the next phase and give us mismatches in the midfield.

Disagree with a lot that has been said about the back row. Lydiate is definitely not a ball carrier, infact he would be quite weak in that area of his game. His game is a defensive one, and he is generally very good at it. Also Faletau I am beginning to think isn't big enough to play 8 but may suit flanker more. He is getting knocked back a fair bit and making fewer carries than before. His work-rate however is immense. Warburton is still class, but Tipuric will be on his tail now.

I realise I am going to get attacked for saying this, but I don't think Wales have one of the best back rows in the world. Not yet anyway.

miteyironpaw

I agree with your analysis on lineout and chip chase 100%

Were going to have to box very clever indeed to stay in the game let alone win.

Massive test of the smarts as well as the resolve of the brains trust and team coming right up.

But hell we wouldnt have it any other way!

miteyironpaw wrote:It might also be worth dropping some short chips in behind the Welsh backline early on - they're obessessed with rushing the defensive line and with bulk at the moment and it's something that I haven't seen any of their opponents try with any conviction (or execution) yet. Big guys turning all afternoon will slow down their rush defense and also tire these guys out. Test their ability to get down on the ball. If nothing else, it will tie them in for the next phase and give us mismatches in the midfield.

Dear Stuart Lancaster,

Please ignore this advice. It's actually a very good idea and might cause us real problems. So don't get England to do it, there's a good lad.

to be fair, it's exactly what Ireland should have done against us, but didn't. Let's hope England don't cotton on to this idea

I might be tempted to start Flood because I think he's a smarter footballer than Hodgson and his execution is slightly to be more precise, which may be unfair on Hodgson depending on what kind of game he's been asked to manage. I'd definitiely have him on the bench in case Flood does one of his rabbit in the headlight impersonations. My personal belief is that Flood likes to have a solid ball carrying option outside him, because it gives him longer on the ball and a get out of jail card in the event he is closed down so my selection at 12 would be highly controversial. So controversial I can't mention it for fear of being labelled unkindly.

Suppose I would be happy with:
9Dickson 10Farrell 11Strettle 12Barritt 13Tuilagi 14Ashton 15Foden. Not bad at all.

It might work!

The lumps always struggle when they have to turn back on themselves

Mitey you have given me hope once more.

I'd be tempted to bring Tuilagi in to 12 outside of Flood and push Farrell in at 13 into a Conrad Smith role. It gives Flood a ball carrying option right on his shoulder and also means a miss pass behind him running as a decoy opens up a distribution/kicking option wider out. We want to mix it up and Tuilagi running into the 9/10 space is likely to have more impact than running into 12/13 against Wales. Farrell is more likey to give Ashton and Strettle options and he's got a better ability to switch play or read the Welsh umbrella defense, or execute a few kicking options.

Just by 2p.

Did you put an application in for the England job?

I did. But they haven't replied.

I did send them in some sketches of my game plans and running plays though. At first I was worried they were going to steal them and use them without credit, but now I just hope for England's sake that they didn't get lost in the post. If you see Tuilagi running decoy into the Welsh midfield with Farrell taking a miss pass, chipping the defense and Aston diving over in the corner at about 3 minutes into the second half... I'm just saying.

Well mitey, you've changed your tune over the weekend. "IF" we get past Wales this weekend? "Just by 2p"???

Whereas last Friday you were spouting:
"My opinion is a spanking for Wales, as I've said. That's my opinion. Not sure why you think my prediction has to match yours."
and:
"It really doesn't matter who wants it more.
England will win. Wales lack the ability, both mental and physical to win at Twickenham"

Could it be you've had a healthy injection of realism? Or are you just getting a bit senile........

I also send my moves book to the RFU and hope to see....

Quick off the top lineout ball followed by Barrit on the crash and Croft hitting the second phase ruck ball fast coming round the corner....

England will need to box clever. We need to take in time play right down by hoofing the leather off the ball into row Z, attacking welsh lineout and scrum.

BUT we also need excellent strike moves to get at least 2 tries out of the match when in the red zone. Finally we'll need luck. That may come in with the bounce of the ball on one or two of our little kicks in behind the bohemoth thick red line!

Good luck and God Speed England!

rugbydreamer wrote:All - I've had a clear up of the thread to remove the wum posts and those that commented on them (sorry if I've missed any). Can we all please try and stay on the topic at hand and stop the needless baiting? It's getting very tiresome now. Thanks.

Come on RD, the one piece of evidence I have to prove I am not the only one that believes there were circumstances effecting our loss in the QF and you remove it.

And by the way, my post wasn't a wum.

tatterd wrote:Well mitey, you've changed your tune over the weekend. "IF" we get past Wales this weekend? "Just by 2p"???

Whereas last Friday you were spouting:
"My opinion is a spanking for Wales, as I've said. That's my opinion. Not sure why you think my prediction has to match yours."
and:
"It really doesn't matter who wants it more.
England will win. Wales lack the ability, both mental and physical to win at Twickenham"

Could it be you've had a healthy injection of realism? Or are you just getting a bit senile........

Well Tatterd, I've been convinced by many of the Welsh posters on here, whose opinions I respect greatly, not just for their insight into the game but their ability to so eloquently state their case and defend it with logic, reason and supporting statistics (rather than have the mods threaten to remove me for being obnoxiously bombastic). So I've revised my estimate from a whipping to a close win for England. I meant "2p worth, tuppence, two pence" rather than 2 points though in the trailer to that post. More than anything I hope it's a great game to watch. Was it just me, or did the Ireland-Wales game see to whizz by in about 20 minutes?

Not meaning to antagonise anyone (or set anyone off on an 'obnoxiously bombastic post) but I somehow can't see England providing us with an exhibition of running rugby that will beat the way Ireland played.

Smirnoffpriest wrote:Not meaning to antagonise anyone (or set anyone off on an 'obnoxiously bombastic post) but I somehow can't see England providing us with an exhibition of running rugby that will beat the way Ireland played.

that might be true, but then running rgby isn't necessarily the only way to win a match.

I fear we'll see much more from England on Saturday, Priest. They have some dangerous backs just waiting to be worked into space.

biltongbek wrote:

rugbydreamer wrote:All - I've had a clear up of the thread to remove the wum posts and those that commented on them (sorry if I've missed any). Can we all please try and stay on the topic at hand and stop the needless baiting? It's getting very tiresome now. Thanks.

Come on RD, the one piece of evidence I have to prove I am not the only one that believes there were circumstances effecting our loss in the QF and you remove it.

And by the way, my post wasn't a wum.

ah I know, sorry about that Biltong!

I had to remove yours though, because it contained a quote of one of the wum posts, and I didn't have time to edit it out. My apologies.