Head to heads

From discussions on another thread I wondered about the relationship (or dare I even say "correlation") between overall and slam head to heads for the top 4 players.

Here (hopefully correct) but please feel free to point out if the slam parts are wrong) are the respective scores and some (again, hopefully) illuminating thoughts. I've listed them in order of total number of matches played in the respective head to heads with the slam head to head followed by the overall one (in brackets)

1. Djokovic 3(14) Nadal 5(16)

The big rivalry of the moment although the way Novak has dominated Rafa in the slams recently it could be hard for Rafa to maintain his slender lead in either head to head. The big question mark must be if Nadal can hang on to his clay court dominance given Novak's recent run of form including beating Rafa in clay court finals last year (the French excepted).

2. Federer 2(9) Nadal 8(18)

Obviously considered the king of head to heads given their large number of slam meetings (especially in the finals). Skewed largely in the favour of Nadal by his almost absolute dominance over Federer on clay and the fact that they have met so many times in the French Open final (hence the overwhelming dominance in slam head to heads for Rafa). Having said that in more recent times Rafa's triumphed invariably almost regardless of surface (it seems that indoor hard courts may be Roger's last bastion of defence).

3. Federer 6(14) Djokovic 4(10)

Again Novak starting to catch up on Roger in both head to heads. The only man though to beat Novak in a slam since start 2011. Difficult now to see a surface where Roger can hurt Novak with Djokovic winning four of their last five meetings since the start of 2011 athough Roger remains the last man to beat Novak in a slam since the start of his recent run of form.

4. Murray 2(5) Nadal 6(13)

This surely is the best match up for Murray fans (and no doubt Andy himself). The only one of the top 4 that Andy's beaten in slams and, given the relative dominace of Rafa overall perhaps a surprise. Could well be though that the relatively high number of times they've played in slams (8 times) has given Andy confidence in taking him on.

5. Federer 2(6) Murray 0(8)

This is the only had to head where the slam leader isn't the overall leader in head to heads too. For that rather unscientific anomaly doesn't this match up give Andy the best chance of his first slam should the met again in the final of one? Of course being seeded 3 and 4 makes that an unlikely scenario at present especially given Novak's current form.

6. Djokovic 2(7) Murray (0)4

As against Federer Murray hasn't had too many slam meetings with Novak perhaps hinting at why he hasn't found a way of getting past either yet. The problem for Andy is that even his best at the Aussie Open wasn't enough against a player who has been in the form of his life for the last year or so. Now that there no longer 3 and 4 in the world respectively then expect many more slam meetings with Novak most likely to be than man to beat if Andy really wants to win one or more slams. Beating him at Cincinnati may have helped although that was a less than 100% fit Novak who retired midway through he second set.


So actually overall head to heads maybe don't lie (with the glaring exception of Murray vs. Federer). Nadal has the best head to head match up overall of any of the top 4 although Djokovic is rapidly closing down on him. If Novak turns round those overall head to heads say by the middle of next year (a possibility baring injury or dramatic loss of form) then he'll be the undisputed king of all the head to heads and who'd bet against that one?

newballs wrote:4. Murray 2(5) Nadal 6(13)

This surely is the best match up for Murray fans (and no doubt Andy himself). The only one of the top 4 that Andy's beaten in slams and, given the relative dominace of Rafa overall perhaps a surprise. Could well be though that the relatively high number of times they've played in slams (8 times) has given Andy confidence in taking him on.

I make no secret of the fact that in most tournaments the match up I most want to see in the final is Federer v Nadal. With the seeding how it is this means I want Murray on Nadals side of the draw. When Federer was number 1, Djokovic number 3 and Murray 4 I also wanted Murray on Nadals side of the draw (It's not just this year that Djokovic has been more tricky for Nadal than Federer). It's interesting to know I'm keeping my fingers crossed for the same thing as Murray fans. I'll keep quiet about Murray's two slam wins against Nadal in the hope that our combined wishes will be effective.

A marvellous post. I think Federer will retire with a winning head to ehad against Djokovic, but it will be close! Federer and Nadal might not meet that frequently from now on at slams, since they could both begin to decline next year, which leaves us with only 3 slams. They would be only 50% likely to be in the same half of the draw, and even then, who's to say that no one would beat them before the semis?

These stats are fascinating. But hasn't Davy got a winning head to head against Rafa? And you could argue that Rafa was good enough to reach finals last year and then succumbed to a rampant Nole, thus wrecking his head to head with Djoko.
Similarly, Fed was good enough to get to lots of clay court finals only to lose to Rafa while Rafa rarely - in Fed's prime - played Rog in hard-court or indoor finals. Ironically, when Rog should have twice played Rafa in a US final, Rog lost in the semis after having match points.
Also, what are we to make of the Murray-Fed match up when they NEVER meet any more?

sirfredperry wrote: Also, what are we to make of the Murray-Fed match up when they NEVER meet any more?

Best chance of an imminent match up will be Dubai where with Nadal not playing Federer will be seeded 2 and Murray 3. Therefore they could be drawn to meet in the semis. However given that Indian Wells starts immediately Dubai finishes I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of them go out early.

Well in fact there are quite a few days before IW gets going as it's effectively a week-long tourney played over two weeks. Fed got to the final at Dubai last year and the semi at IW. Murray, though, is the one liekly to really benefit points-wise this year.

I think we all know the next match between Nadal and Djokovic, and Murray and Djokovic will ne highly interesting given Nadal's and Murray's performance against Nole at AO...and of course whatever Nadal has been working on in private in February.

Fed will never close the gap further on Nadal, indeed I dont think he'll beat him again unless they meet indoors.
Murray will I believe have a roughly even H2H with Nole, and I think Nole will continue to beat Nadal roughly 2:1 ratio - although in slams this is more unpredictable as Nadal seems to raise his game more there.

Since most of Federers victories nowadays come in the World Tour Final, you can't separate the indoor hard court stat from the "end of season /out of season" stat.

With regard to the Murray slam H2H stat - it would be better to compare sets won to sets lost to determine his progress across the years.

I'm keeping track of the ranking points of the numbers 2-4 that will still be valid when Roland Garros starts (i.e. taking away all points that will expire before the start of the French). This is the current situation:

Nadal: 6,535 (10,435)
Federer: 6,860 (8,330)
Murray: 6,320 (7,150)

So they are very close, and it'll be interesting to see who will arrive in Paris as #2. The main tournaments to earn points are:

HC: Dubai (500), Indian Wells and Miami (1000)
Clay: Barcelona (500), Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome (1000)

Although Federer is slightly ahead in points, Nadal still has the best prospects:
- most points are to be earned on clay
- Nadal is guaranteed to avoid Djokovic until the finals

For Nadal it is crucial to stay at #2, because he would hate to run into Djokovic already at the semi-final stage.

P'staff. Thanks for that points review. It's amazing just what big swings in points you can have - sometimes from just one tournament. In 09 Rafa was miles ahead at the top, then lost in the French and did not play Wimbledon and 4,000 points just went up in smoke. Fed was similarly affected in 2010 and Djoko - and to a lesser extent Rafa - could be hit this year.

Have to agree that Roger is the guy that Andy probably wants to face both in the ATP events they enter before the slams and in the slam themselves. Their slam seedings at present make such a clash unlikely though so Andy's best bet in my opinion is being in Rafa's half (with the possible exception of the French) and seeing who comes through in the other half.

Hmmm...Andy hasnt really faired that well against Nadal of late in slams though. I have the feeling Nadal now has abit of a mental hold over Murray given he's beaten Murray without too much trouble in the last 4 slams...inc. 3 last year.

Lydian the reality is he hasn't yet shaped up well against anyone else in the top 4 yet. OK he pushed Novak last time round but you still didn't get the feeling he can quite bridge that gap as thing stand.

Nadal has a more limited game than Novak relying as much on mental strength as his shot making so if he's slightly off the top of his game Andy knows he's in with a good chance. With Djokovic there just don't seem to be any chinks in his armour at present and Andy would surely be better off seeing him in the other half of the draw in the slams if at all possible.

I actually, think Andy is Novak's toughest head to head right now. Two of Novak's wins recently have been by the closest of margins in Rome 2011 and at the current AO 2012. I think if Roger sticks around he will have a negative h2h against all three of the top 4 guys when he retires. This to me seems to be the most interesting factoid. Many will point to how the younger players enjoyed an age difference. And that is true certainly beating Roger today is not the same as beating him in 2006. But then what do we make of Roger's wins against Novak and Andy in the early part of their careers when both of those guys were still very young and Roger was at his peak. With Nadal there is less of an argument since Nadal has pretty much had that rivalry with Roger in the bag since he was 18 years old.

I don't think h2h tells us the whole picture obviously of a players standing. But what is interesting to point out is that Roger has a losing h2h with 2 of his 3 closest rivals and is losing ground rapidly with the other one Djokovic. And Novak with the move that he has made still has a losing record against 2 of his top 3 rivals. Although at 14-16, and 10-14 vis a vis Rog and Rafael he could get the edge in both those rivalries.

Most impressive statistic. Since the start of 2011 when Novak turned his game around, Novak is 7-1 against the rest of the big 4 in grandslams.

newballs

I disagree that "Nadal has amore limited game than Novak".

Novak is exceptional at what he does but what he does is more limited than Nadal. Novak is great at taking the ball early and hitting hard and flat. He loves getting the ball back hard too as he can feed off the power. He also benifits when his opponant plays the same style as he does. Many players do! He is excellent when players try and move him from side to side at the back of the court as he can feed off the rhythm.

But Nadal can add more variety with changes of pace and spin. Nadal is also good at making a player move up and down the court (as opposed to side to side). He is also very good at moving up and down the court himself. By playing with more variety he can beat Djokovic. He can beat Djokovic at his own game too but we have all seen this is much more difficult.

Also think Murray has a better chance against Djokovic than Nadal. But would find both difficult in important matches and especially in slams. IMO he would really need either to be playing below par.

Hawkeye, I personally think Andy is right now a scarier matchup for Novak frankly than either Fed or Nadal. I know people will think I am crazy, especially with the way Fed played at the end of the year last year and how close Nadal came in that final. I actually think that Murray presents the most problems to Novak because he can match Novak pretty well from the return and the backhand.

But about Nadal having more variety than Novak I disagree. Novak actually hits the ball with a lot of spin, not as much as Nadal but his standard forehand is very heavy. Novak stands closer and hits flatter than Nadal and can flat it out for a winner off either wing. Overrall, I think Novak has much better variety than Nadal. When you look at Novak's ability to change direction and go up the line off both wings, his drop shots, his improved volleys, and maybe the best backhand lob right now on tour.

well hawkeye nobody (with the possible exception of Nadal) can defend as well as Novak and nobody (period) can turn defence into attack like Novak. Given that he never (and that's only a slight exaggeration) misses nowadays with his forehand and rarely his backhand either then there aren't too many holes in his game to exploit. Mentally and physically there were weaknesses to exploit but those days have long gone so you are really looking at the complete package.

That's why all these head to heads are going to be turning in his favour soon unless Rafa, Andy or a.n.other can take it to an even higher level. Thats also why Rafa's being trying to take the ball earlier against Novak and attacking him. Seems like that message has been getting through to Andy too that if you stay back against Novak too much then you may as well kiss the match goodbye.

Johnny Bravo > Samurai Jack

Better hair, better shades, better ratings.

Recent slam performance suggests that Djokovic has great difficulty in beating all three. If we consider their most recent slam match ups we have

Djokovic beats Nadal in five sets coming back from a break down in the fifth: 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5
Djokovic beats Murray in five sets coming back from two sets to one down: 6-3, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-1, 7-5
Djokovic beats Federer in five sets after saving two match points: 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 7-5

Would it be a significant negative in Fed's resume if he finished his career with a losing h2h to Murray, Nadal, and Djoko? It would be an interesting side note and not exactly a bright spot on the resume. I wonder what Roger's h2h is with the strong era champions of Ivan Ljubicic, Hewitt, Roddick, Safin, and Ferrero?

Nore Staat wrote:Recent slam performance suggests that Djokovic has great difficulty in beating all three. If we consider their most recent slam match ups we have

Djokovic beats Nadal in five sets coming back from a break down in the fifth: 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5
Djokovic beats Murray in five sets coming back from two sets to one down: 6-3, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-1, 7-5
Djokovic beats Federer in five sets after saving two match points: 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 7-5

True Nore Staat, but then you have the fact that he has won 7 of his last 8 encounters with the other top 4 guys. The AO was a weird match, I really think Novak should have finished it 4 sets and I think if Murray hadn't taken so much out of him that he probably would have taken Nadal in 4 tough sets as opposed to 5 brutal sets. But good point Nore Staat the margins at the very top are really thin. I think what is currently separating Novak from the other top 4 guys is that little bit of extra confidence he has from all the recent grandslam wars he has won against the rest of the top guys. The fact that he has won these close grandslam wars over the last 12 months I think makes him even mentally stronger in the next five set shootout he has with Roger, Rafa, or Murray.

Murray seems to have got his head in order with the help of Lendl.
Rafa has been working with the weight of his racket and was successful against Djokovic when he was a little more attacking and hitting his shots flatter.
Federer has been working with Annacone to improve his slam performances (Nadal seems to be his only real weakness).

They are all working hard to overcome Djokovic.

This leads for very interesting times in tennis. The only thing is that their matches may get longer and longer.

NS he may have been pushed by all three but the reality is he beat them all and the only one who really looked like he had what it took to beat Novak was Federer.

I just wonder who's actually going to step up and beat him in the slams again. Maybe a focused Andy with Lendl on board might just be the guy to do it and that would be a result to talk about.

I think we can also add Del Potro into the mix although Federer appears to have his number.

sirfredperry wrote:These stats are fascinating. But hasn't Davy got a winning head to head against Rafa? And you could argue that Rafa was good enough to reach finals last year and then succumbed to a rampant Nole, thus wrecking his head to head with Djoko.
Similarly, Fed was good enough to get to lots of clay court finals only to lose to Rafa while Rafa rarely - in Fed's prime - played Rog in hard-court or indoor finals.

Well they have. Basically on outdoor hard Nadal won and indoor Federer won. Simple.

Outdoor hard court finals 2-1 Rafa. Indoor hard court finals 1-0 Fed.

newballs wrote:NS he may have been pushed by all three but the reality is he beat them all and the only one who really looked like he had what it took to beat Novak was Federer.

I just wonder who's actually going to step up and beat him in the slams again. Maybe a focused Andy with Lendl on board might just be the guy to do it and that would be a result to talk about.

Tend to agree with these comments, out of these three matchups the one with Fed saving matchpoints like that was the one that was most dangerous for Novak. He really was at death's door. Against Nadal I really thought he was going to take one of his break points in the fourth and seal the deal, but he just played a bad set at the worst time of the tourney. And credit to Nadal he played with so much ferocity to just win that 4th set. Certainly, Nadal was closer this time around than any of the previous 6 times.

For me, I still think Andy is Novak's most dangerous contender. For one thing Andy I think still has room for improvement in a couple of areas. If Andy can solidify, I am not saying turn these shots into weapons, but if he can solidify the second serve and forehand Novak could have some serious difficulties with him. Because these are the two areas Novak plays to against Andy. In AO 2012 Andy did a much better job with the forehand than in AO 2011. So it shows some progress on the forehand. But when you look at the second serve, Novak again pummelled Andy's second into submission. Not winning even 30 percent of points on your second serve isn't going to win you too many matches.

Agree with Socal re Andy. Fedal are getting older (miles on the treads) despite occassional threats in matches.