Six Nations - Half Time Analysis

So, we have now reached the midpoint of the 2012 Six Nations, and so far, we have seen a lot of exciting games with every team showing some promise.


........Team.........P...... W..... D...... L...... F...... A...... PTS
1......Wales ........3...... 3...... 0...... 0...... 69.... 46.... 6
2...... France.......2...... 2...... 0...... 0...... 53.... 29.... 4
3...... England......3...... 2...... 0...... 1...... 44.... 40.... 4
4...... Ireland.......2...... 1...... 0...... 1...... 63.... 33.... 2
5...... Scotland.....3......0...... 0...... 3...... 36.... 63.... 0
6...... Italy..........3...... 0...... 0...... 3...... 37.... 91.... 0


Wales

Wales will be very happy with their 6N so far. They started with a very impressive win in Dublin and followed it up with a convincing victory over Scotland and then a nervy victory at Twickernam. They haven't yet reproduced the form they showed in the WC 1/4 final victory against the Irish, but, have still managed to claw away wins against England and Ireland, something a Welsh team not playing at 110% hasn't done for a long time.

Wales now have 2 home fixtures to look forward to, with much of the hard work done. Italy next up should be a comfortable win in Cardiff and performance will be the key factor Warren Gatland will be looking for before what should be a grand slam decider against France. World cup runners up against 4th with home advantage, it should be a great game (and I have tickets )

Prediction

Italy (H) - W (20 - 30pts)
France (H) - W (Home advantage sways it, 1 - 10 pts)


France

France have yet to put in a dazzling performance in this 6Ns, but they still give off the impression of playing in 2nd gear. A 30 - 12 victory over Italy in Paris was comfortable, but not great, and their PD won't be helped much (especially with Ireland winning 42 - 10 when they played Italy). Against Scotland they looked very beatable, although looked fairly in control at the end of the game, but a 6pt lead can always be thrown away, and Scotland did have chances.

France now have 3 tough games in a row, they will certainly be battered by the time they reach Cardiff. Still, French rugby is known for its depth, and based on the names on the team sheet, I think they will be able to beat both Ireland and England at home. Still, an upset is on the cards and this French team may be tested further to see if the WC final performance was a one off.

Prediction

Ireland (H) - W (1 - 10pts)
England (H) - W (1 - 10pts)
Wales (A) - L


England

England have 2 away wins and 1 home defeat under new coach Stuart Lancaster. There victories over Scotland and Italy were very tight and nervy, with 2 charge downs the difference at the end, it won't help their PD but they will take heart from winning away from home. Their performance against Wales all provides a lot of positives, but they will have to replicate it in the next 2 games if they want to stay in the top half of the 6N table. England may yet have a bright future if some of the hangers on can be dropped.

Tuilagi, Farrell and Dickson showed that England can breach defences and whether they can gel together in the up coming games will be key. England may need to experiment from the bench, as Stevens, Lawes and Youngs showed that England don't have depth off the bench. Paris is next up, and they will need a big performance.

Prediction

France (A) - L
Ireland (H) - W (1 - 10)


Ireland

Ireland have played well in parts and badly in parts. They were very close against Wales, but a home loss doesn't set them up well for the 6Ns. They showed promise against Italy, despite not playing brilliantly, they still put 42 points on Italy - Although the scoreline flatters them somewhat. Ireland have all the player that have been so brilliant for Leinster, Munster and Ulster, but they seem to fail to put in a performance worthy of their parts internationally. Personally, I think Kidney is not the man to take Ireland forward.

Ireland now have trips to Paris and Twickernam, historically, Ireland don't do well in Paris. They will fancy themselves against England, but, I think England will improve futher before then and possibly home advantage will see an English victory. Ireland should beat Scotland in the Aviva, but if they slump after consecutive losses, who knows.

Prediction

France (A) - L
England (A) - L
Scotland (H) - W (5 - 15pts)


Scotland

Hopeless in attack against the English, brave but indisciplined against the Welsh and defiant but inevitably shaky against the French. Scotland can take solace in the fact that they have improved game on game. With Laidlaw, Hogg and Rennie established in the team now, they have 3 very good players who are potentially a match for any in the 6N. Gray and Hamilton are dominant in the lineout, but the forwards still struggle in the scrums. The tries are starting to come now though.

Scotland will be a heroic performance to win in Dublin, and I can't see it happening. However, after their game against France, I think they can go to Rome as favourites and avoid the wooden spoon.

Prediction

Ireland (A) - L
Italy (A) - W (1 - 10pts)


Italy

Fought well against France, but will really rue the missed opportunity against England. They regressed in the second half against Ireland and are now set for another heavy defeat in Cardiff. Whether they can return to Rome and put in a performance to beat Scotland is in doubt, especially if they are missing Castro.

Italy have tried to be a bit more expansive this season, but they have been given little by the strong defences of the French, English and Irish and I wonder if they will return to 'up the jumper' rugby when they are contemplating the wooden spoon on the final weekend. They beat France, came very close to beating Ireland and scared Wales last season - but when they have 3 away games, they are destined for the wooden spoon.

Prediction

Wales (A) - L
Scotland (H) - L


???Final Table???
Wales
France
England
Ireland
Scotland
Italy.

Your final tally obviously could be the right one. And I think whenever Wales wins a championship/Slam Ireland tends to slide to 4th...so it doesn't look inaccurate.

But just little adjustments to your points that might see a different conclusion.
Wales are surging ahead, playing their heads up attacking rugby. They have 7 tries from 3 games.
Ireland playing the halfway house game between terrible and alright have 7 tries from 2 games.

To suggest England might further improve seems to preclude the idea that Ireland have so much more room to improve too...and are scoring highly enough even before any improvement.

So Ireland beginning to find a rhythm, and habitually getting better as the Six nations goes on, potentially beats France (doable on the evidence of today's game against Scotland) at home in Paris and that takes the pressure off Wales a little - but also bolsters Ireland's belief that they can give themselves a good platform to perhaps take the championship away from Wales with two more barnstorming performances against Scotland and England. Incentives are powerful things when you intially think you've blown a season with a first loss at home to Wales.

I dont think we will beat the French. They have a better scrummage than we have faced before this season and backs who can cut through us.

France have a tough run in with four games on the bounce so injuries may be a factor but in Fofana they have the star of the tournament so far. They should beat Ireland at home and will crush England and I expect them to burst our bubble.

England have another two tough games ahead cant see them winning either. The French are simply to strong and I think they will run riot in Paris.

Scotland will beat the Italians and I have a feeling that they have turned a corner since scring against the welsh. I wouldnt be suprised to see them turnover the Irish in Dublin. If they can score a hatful against the Italians their points difference could be very good for the final table.

Ireland should beat the Scots but again with four games on the trot to come fatigue and injuries could well play against them vs the Scots which will leave England on the recieving end of a green backlash. Until England can score tries in open play they are not going to win big matches no matter how good the defence is.

Italy have struggled this term but its a new coaching team and a new philosophy in the long run they will be better for it but they need to find an outside half from anywhere. Saying that the ten yesterday showed great hands to put Parisse in for his try.

France
Wales
Ireland
Scotland
England
Italy.

TycroesOsprey wrote:I dont think we will beat the French. They have a better scrummage than we have faced before this season and backs who can cut through us.

France have a tough run in with four games on the bounce so injuries may be a factor but in Fofana they have the star of the tournament so far. They should beat Ireland at home and will crush England and I expect them to burst our bubble.

France can be quite lose in defence. I think Wales should be able to keep them nervy enough in that department for extended periods. I don't think France are an attacking side as much as they are a counter-attacking side. So, unlike England, Wales I think will be allowed to be the attacking side they like to be..but Wales don't make too many errors doing that so counter-attacking options might not be so available to the French. I think France will have to improve by some distance to push Wales off the Slam. I really can't seriously judge France yet. Potential is one thing...but yet again, they're failing to deliver clinical evidence.

Home advantage is looking the difference in some of these games

I would have

France v Ireland
England v Ireland
and Wales v France

as different results if played in the opposite venue.

But, we have already had a lot of away wins this 6Ns - Ireland could well finish with 4 wins, as could France, Wales or England.

The difference is, at the moment, Wales are pretty much guaranteedto finish with at least 4 wins, whereas the others are a lot further away.

Dunno Fly the French scare me like none of the other teams. If only they had kept Lievremont I would be happy but PSA knows what he is doing. The thing is I would class Wales as a counter atacking side as well. However our tactical kicking has been a weak point all tournament and against the French we will get punished if we kick poorly to Medard Clerc et al. Of course Ireland could beat them in Paris and rip the whole thing wide open. Well when I say wide, a threeway that the English Scots and Italians arent invited too.

Dunno Fly the French scare me like none of the other teams

Me too. I just feel that they've barely been at the games so far. Whether they ever will turn up is an open question, but if they do, whoever is on the receiving end is going to suffer.

Now bear in mind it's the French we're talking about and they are considerably less predictable than the weather. So they might just decide they aren't coming out to play this 6Ns for some inscrutable French reason so obvious they aren't going to explain it. But I just feel they are waaaaay the most dangerous side in the tournament and someone's going to get a clobbering. They are two from two and have played the same opposition as England. Which do you think looks scarier?

Cowshot wrote: They are two from two and have played the same opposition as England. Which do you think looks scarier?

They've played Scotland and Italy - same opposition as England (apart from the Welsh). Both those sides played three and have lost three. Despite the efforts of those sides, that's the calibre of sides the French have beaten. France might prove to be scary (next week!) but until then, no - they don't look particularly scary. A lethal side on paper, a good side on evidence - that's all. The Welsh are just gettng early nerves..... comes with the territory of being favourites

Well you can't really fault the welsh can you.

I thought they were fortunate to get that last penalty against Ireland, but it happened and the kick went over. 1 from 1

They did lead the scottish match even before the first yellow card, but they used the advantage of 1 man for the 18 minutes well and you would expect a team on form to do that with the advantage. 2 from 2

Against england it was a tough battle but unlike the Irish match they deserved their winning try and hence not just luck in that. 3 from 3

As far as all the controversy over the penalty in the Irish game, the yellow cards in the Scottish game and the deliberate actions by North, they won three and got away with what they could.

One win you can call luck if you want, two wins you might still want to call a favourable run of events, but three in a row is neither.

They are creating a habit of winning and that breeds confidence, I think they have the best attacking back line in the six nations and a great set of loose forwards. They have a definite weakness in the line out.

Their tight five is good, rather than spectacular and can hold their own against anything the NH can throw at them.

I would suggest that they have the six Nations in the bag with two home matches left, but then this is rugby and anyhting can happen still, and usually will happen.

A lethal side on paper, a good side on evidence - that's all.

And one which has done exactly and precisely enough to win each game. No more.

Now, I'm not predicting anything. It's the French. But the Welsh aren't the only ones with squeaky bums on this issue!

for starters, France will have to beat Ireland and that's far from a given. I actually think both teams are not at their best in terms of defense so we should see some tries. Poitrenaud replacing Medart at FB not going to help.
France attacking play is fairly basic and far from creative, they tend to force their way through the defensive line after 2/3 quick passes and the Scottish blitz defense was quite effective against that.
They clearly have to improve significantly. Now, although I dont think France is unpredictable these days, they tend to react to the opposition which makes me hope they will show more in the next games.