Nole's Slippery Slope

Don't get me wrong I like Nole but I have to be realistic. Last year at this time Djokovic must have been high in confidence. Davis Cup, AO, Dubai and last but by no means least (because of who he beat and how he did it) Indian Wells wins tucked safely away and an unbeaten record growing nicely. That along with lower expectations allowed him to play with the sort of freedom that helped him continue collecting trophys and wins. It also helped that other players didn't yet see him as THE player to beat.

This year things look very different. With a scary amount of points to defend, a target on his back and two consecutive semi losses (to players not called Roger or Rafa...) he is starting to look vulnerable. It's just my subjective opinion but his standard of play has dropped too. It dropped after last years US Open but credit to him it didn't stop him winning in Australia.

Now with hardly any time to catch breath he has to play and defend yet more points in Miami. Unlike Nadal and Federer he has little experience with defending so many points. It must be a whole lot less fun than gaining them for the first time and it can only get harder with a few losses.

Miami is very important. The last hard court tournament before moving on to clay and grass. Hard court remains Djokovics best surface despite his three wins on clay and grass last year. If he's not playing well on hardcourt it will be more difficult to improve his leval on a surface that doesn't suit him as well. There are at least two players who will be happy to take advantage.

I will be very surprised if Nole doesn't slip down the rankings. I will also be very surprised if he doesn't climb back up at some point... As long as he doesn't get too discouraged and hurt by the slip.

This time last year Nole looked imperious. This year he looks a little tired already, perhaps mentally as well.

The AO was a brutal final for both opponents. I know a lot of people enjoyed it but you had to wonder, at the time, if it hadn't taken a bit of stuffing from both players for the beginning of this year.

I said on another thread that at first I thought Rafa would suffer most as the loser, but I think he will benefit from once more being the hunter. I am interested to see how Novak comes out in Miami.

He has actually had a very good year. Won the exhibition tournament, won Australian open and 2 semi finals is hardly a bad innings. What is so remarkable about djokovic is his consistency. Outside of world tour finals 2011, when was the last time he did not reach at least semi finals of a tournament?? Probably 2010???? Amazing stats

But if he continues being "good" like this he will continue to slip...

To me, it's just a few points there and then. He still got 6 BPs v Isner and only converted 2. Had he converted 3, he woudl have been in the final and may have had another TMS in the bag.

As amazing as his streak was last year, he was also fortunate to have won those very close matches which allowed him to be unbeaten for nearly 6 months.

I cannot read anything from what I have seen so far. If anything he maanaged to win another slam without being in tip top form.

Well the AO win, for Nole, was massive. First, he successfully defended 2,000 points and secondly he showed that 2011 was no mere flash in the pan.
I don't think he's gonna be unduly worried about a couple of semi final defeats. I think he said earlier that he could hardly be expected to have the sort of start this year that he had last year.
The points are now slewed so heavily towards successful GS runs that a player who does well in the slams can pace themselves a bit in the other tourneys. But I certainly agree a win against Nole means more to the others now than it did before he got to number one. Consequently ALL matches for Djoko are little bit harder.

Tenez

Rafa could say the same last year... and look what you say about him now.

Nole is a 1 year wonder and he can not sustain what he did last year, he might get another GS and a couple of Masters this year, which is good enough for a mega-boring player.

Also him being No:1 in all tournaments so far till SF have been a walk in the park for him, Isner came and washed him away.

sirfredperry

If he chooses to concentate on slams there will be no escape from the slippery slope. He has 4,000 non slam points to defend in the next few weeks

H'eye. Yes, it is a lot of points and it's fairly certain that some will slip away. Fed coming so much more into the picture this year just adds to the fun.

SFP - Did you get my PM?

hawkeye wrote:Tenez

Rafa could say the same last year... and look what you say about him now.

In which way? For Rafa it's not about a point there and then....it's 7/0 for Djoko. A bit different.

This is another good thread (there have been a number of bad ones but that's another matter) and tenez made a salient point about how Djokovic won a number of close matches before ultimately winning his grand slams and this no doubt fulled his self belief which I think has been a crucial factor (by no means the only factor). His close victories recently include:

USO Semi-Final 2010 (beat Federer after facing two match points)
Miami Final 2011 (beat Nadal in tie breaker)
Rome Semi-Final 2011 (beat Murray in tie breaker but lost serve just beforehand after leading the set)
USO Semi-Final 2011 (beat Fed again after facing again two match points)
Aussie Open Semi-Final (beat Murray in 5 hard fought sets although I'm sure Murray had led in the final set but got broken?)
Aussie Open Final (beat Nadal after Nadal had a 4-2 lead in the final set)

The key thing about all the above matches is that his opponent could have won them (and in all situations, they either had match points or only had to hold serve to beat him). Now I'm not going to pretend that his loss to Isner is the start of a trend necessarily but as tenez pointed out, that would have a match he would have won last year. Djokovic even said in the interview he had his opportunities against Isner. Just this year he doesn't appear to be taking them.

I'm fairly convinced that should Djokovic lose his Miami title I'm about 90% certain that Djokovic will lose his No.1 position either before or after August. The only things which might change this is if he wins RG or the Olympics in which case he may remain No.1 until the USO.

It was the winning of these close matches that defined Djokovic last year. Therefore it's the beginning of losing them that I think hails his slide from No.1 should it continue. The only question in this event is who will take the No.1 slot, given how close Fed & Nadal are on points. One thing mentioned by some posters who think Fed can't catch Nadal is that Nadal is strong on clay. That is true however Nadal also has many more points to reflect that strength and winning either Madrid or Rome won't yield him that many extra points. In many ways if Nadal beats Djokovic in clay court tournaments, he does Fed a favour by eroding the points gap mountain between Fed and Djokovic. Also, Nadal can only get a maximum of 400 extra from winning Madrid or Rome. The key thing is how few points Fed has to defend and thus he can gain far more if he gets to a final or even wins a tournament.

I think key is who wins Miami, Djokovic wins it, good chance he'll remain No.1 until after Wimbledon. If it's Nadal, he could take No.1 but that may be in August. If it's Federer, he could take No.1 too but again, only in August and depending on how other results go. The only thing which is certain is Djokovic needs to win @ least 2 out of Miami/Madrid/Rome unless he wins RG. Otherwise his slide from No.1 is certain. Who to could be trickier to determine.

Tenez

A point here and there and it wouldn't have been 7-0. But now you have made me sound like I'm saying that it shouldn't be 7-0 which I'm not! It was you that was arguing that Djokovic could have won Indian Wells if only he'd taken one of the break points against Isner. I was arguing against that. You are a tricky customer...

The topic was Nole and the slippery slope. Do you think he's on one?

hawkeye wrote:Tenez

A point here and there and it wouldn't have been 7-0. But now you have made me sound like I'm saying that it shouldn't be 7-0 which I'm not! It was you that was arguing that Djokovic could have won Indian Wells if only he'd taken one of the break points against Isner. I was arguing against that. You are a tricky customer...

The topic was Nole and the slippery slope. Do you think he's on one?

Well HE, it's more than a point there and then. Bar a couple close matches, essentially due to Djoko being spent, the rest were not really close.


From winning everything in 2011, it could only be a slippery slope for Nole. I can't think how he could have climbed any higher.

My main point is that tennis is constantly getting more competitive, bar the odd patch. Considering Djoko sliding without considering Isner, Nadal or Federer improving is wrong.

Remember, I am one who never gave Federer's age as excuse for his defeats....(bar when he had 2 tough matches in 2 successive days). That is essentially because I believe the opposition and other factors find way to bring all top players down at some stage.

Djoko will beno exception. I just don;t think he is down yet and note that he has been pretty inconsistent in his career bar last year...though there were even signs of it last year....despite winning everytihng.

Tenez

Please don't spoil my article by saying things off topic that I so want to respond to but will trap me into arguing about your favourite topic. Then I will run out of enerygy and it will look like you have won... and meanwhile my article will be in ruins...

Ok - Keep your article for yourself then.

Tenez wrote:

hawkeye wrote:Tenez

Rafa could say the same last year... and look what you say about him now.

In which way? For Rafa it's not about a point there and then....it's 7/0 for Djoko. A bit different.

I would also add, that the 7-0 is also affecting his mental toughness when playing Djoko. He should have put away that easy backhand down the line when he was up 4-2, 30-15 in the 5th set of the Aussie Open final and I would go on further to say that had it been Roger on the other side of the net, he would have put it away. In fact, he should have won the final had it not been for that crucial mistake.

Djokovic seemed to hit his peak from Indian Wells 2011 to Rome and Madrid 2011. I might include his Austalian Open 2011 in his peak run. Maybe the US Open series.

He didn't show his extremely impressive very best form for me at Wimbledon 2011 or Australian Open 2012.

US Open 2011 was very good actually, even though the form either side wasn't quite the same, but that was the one tournament where he hit absolute peak since about Madrid/Rome.

"SFP - Did you get my PM?"
Hi Tenez. If you mean personal message, no I didn't, although being a bit of a duffer with new technology I would not know where to look anyway.

No worries. Please pass on a hello from me to Fah at CC...if you and her still post over there.

Tenez wrote:No worries. Please pass on a hello from me to Fah at CC...if you and her still post over there.

I will. Fah and I have just come bottom of the CC IW prediction league. The more I tipped Fed to lose the better he seemed to get. So I kept on predicting losses for him.

sirfredperry wrote:

Tenez wrote:No worries. Please pass on a hello from me to Fah at CC...if you and her still post over there.

I will. Fah and I have just come bottom of the CC IW prediction league. The more I tipped Fed to lose the better he seemed to get. So I kept on predicting losses for him.

Being last of a prediction competition is a price I'd be happy to pay, to keep our talented player winning.

Tenez wrote:To me, it's just a few points there and then. He still got 6 BPs v Isner and only converted 2. Had he converted 3, he woudl have been in the final and may have had another TMS in the bag.

As amazing as his streak was last year, he was also fortunate to have won those very close matches which allowed him to be unbeaten for nearly 6 months.

I cannot read anything from what I have seen so far. If anything he maanaged to win another slam without being in tip top form.

I have to say Tenez brilliant post concisely covering the situation. When you don't harp on one issue unrealistically you actually do have good things to say.

The Isner match was very odd. Novak won more points, had more break points and broke Isner 2 times while only losing his serve one time.

And last year those close matches were going Novak's way, so maybe a few close matches go against you this season. But he isn't the same Novak at this point in terms of his best, he definetly has another gear or two to go into. If he stays healthy I am sure he will find it at the slams.

socal1976 wrote:

Tenez wrote:To me, it's just a few points there and then. He still got 6 BPs v Isner and only converted 2. Had he converted 3, he woudl have been in the final and may have had another TMS in the bag.

As amazing as his streak was last year, he was also fortunate to have won those very close matches which allowed him to be unbeaten for nearly 6 months.

I cannot read anything from what I have seen so far. If anything he maanaged to win another slam without being in tip top form.

I have to say Tenez brilliant post concisely covering the situation. When you don't harp on one issue unrealistically you actually do have good things to say.

The Isner match was very odd. Novak won more points, had more break points and broke Isner 2 times while only losing his serve one time.
What if he doesn't?
Who will be accused of the greatest evil in tennis that time round?

And last year those close matches were going Novak's way, so maybe a few close matches go against you this season. But he isn't the same Novak at this point in terms of his best, he definetly has another gear or two to go into. If he stays healthy I am sure he will find it at the slams.

What if he doesn't?
Who will be accused of being the greatest evil in tennis that time round?

HA, ha, veejay. The greatest evil probably should have been the most annoying. And you are doing a very good job of reinforcing my original thesis, anything substantive to say?

socal1976 wrote:

Tenez wrote:To me, it's just a few points there and then. He still got 6 BPs v Isner and only converted 2. Had he converted 3, he woudl have been in the final and may have had another TMS in the bag.

As amazing as his streak was last year, he was also fortunate to have won those very close matches which allowed him to be unbeaten for nearly 6 months.

I cannot read anything from what I have seen so far. If anything he maanaged to win another slam without being in tip top form.

I have to say Tenez brilliant post concisely covering the situation. When you don't harp on one issue unrealistically you actually do have good things to say.

The Isner match was very odd. Novak won more points, had more break points and broke Isner 2 times while only losing his serve one time.

And last year those close matches were going Novak's way, so maybe a few close matches go against you this season. But he isn't the same Novak at this point in terms of his best, he definetly has another gear or two to go into. If he stays healthy I am sure he will find it at the slams.

Thank you - One day you may realise I also talk sense in the other issue...I harp on about.

socal1976 wrote:HA, ha, veejay. The greatest evil probably should have been the most annoying. And you are doing a very good job of reinforcing my original thesis, anything substantive to say?

Desperate times calls for desperate measures..
How come no one else is agreeing with your thesis?

http://www.familyskinews.com/news/celebrity-ski-holidays-838/

Tenez, I don't you will change my opinion on the core phsicality/conditions issue but that is part of the reason I get annoyed is I think if you put your mind to other things in tennis you come up with good quality posts.

Have to agree, it is Novak's best but the fact that being off form he could still beat 2 other members of the top 4 and win a slam is saying alot, that was a good point as well.

Veejay your bad attempts at sarcasm is getting wearisome. If you would like to discuss the "evil" of tennis issue there is a spectacularly well written thread on this very site that discusses the matter.

Nore Staat wrote:http://www.familyskinews.com/news/celebrity-ski-holidays-838/

Ha ha! I wondered if someone would come up with that connection...

Veejay wrote:

socal1976 wrote:HA, ha, veejay. The greatest evil probably should have been the most annoying. And you are doing a very good job of reinforcing my original thesis, anything substantive to say?

Desperate times calls for desperate measures..
How come no one else is agreeing with your thesis?

"Thesis"

LOL