The Big Four and 2012

A thread earlier today by bogbrush opened an interesting debate on the effect Federer’s Indian Wells victory might have on any prospect of him regaining top spot, and the way in which the rankings of the ‘Big Four’ might potentially pan out over the season.

But here - rather than looking at points, stats and rankings - I just wanted to touch on some of the intangibles such as confidence, motivation etc and how these factors might respectively affect this top group in the wake of the first Masters of 2012. Without the magical ability to see inside their heads or be privy to their thoughts, these are of course just my own reflections and nothing more.

The top four justifiably remain the focus of so much discussion, given that no Slam or Masters winner came from outside this elite group throughout 2011, a pattern which has continued into the early part of 2012 .


Djokovic

He can hardly be too disappointed with his start to the season. Another impressively-won Slam added to the growing collection, and one of course that gives him the chance to achieve that elusive holy grail of holding all four at once. Yes, a loss to Isner that he most probably would have avoided last year, but Isner is as we know a man on the up, full of confidence and a growing threat to anybody. I think it’s difficult to gauge his mood right now but nor is there any evidence at all of a catastrophic dip in form.

Few people seriously expected Novak to begin the first quarter of this year in precisely the same magnificient way that he did last ; history tells us that things rarely happen that way in the world of professional tennis. But I believe he will continue to be the litmus test in the coming months and see no reason why he will not be making finals (at least) in the build-up to RG. With so few weaknessses – if indeed any – I don’t see him losing his Number one spot for some time. Although I qualify that in saying that he is perhaps about to find, like so many others in the past, that being hunted can be a lot tougher than being the hunter.



Nadal

By taking around six weeks off, Rafa’s objective was clearly to get himself into perfect shape in time for IW and the challenges beyond. But such rest periods don’t always produce the effects intended (or not instantly anyway) and there is a fine balance between being fresh, raring to go and getting back to battle-hardened match fitness. No amount of hours on the practice court or gym can replicate the tension of facing down, or capitalising on, a crucial break point in the white heat of a full stadium. Perhaps that’s partly what saw him fall pretty convincingly to Roger on Saturday, even though he had already fought so well to hold off such an impressive effort by Nalby.

A number of folk have commented that Rafa was looking somehow “out of sorts” in his IW semi, but I’m not so sure. He looked normal enough to me, and I sometimes think there can be too many theories and analysis as to what caused a loss when the explanation can often be much less complex. In this case I’m going with Rafa’s own assessment in his presser :
“He played better than me. That’s the best excuse I can find, and that’s it. The game is simple. I tried but it wasn’t enough and that’s it.”

Rafa added that he is playing with energy and enjoying the tour, something many feel didn’t seem to be the case at the back end of last year. I was intrigued to see that during a little informal chat between the great Rod Laver and Rafa at this year’s AO, Rafa bristled somewhat at Laver’s assessment that 2011 hadn’t been a great year for him. He countered – justifiably IMO – that he had, after all, won another Slam, a couple of other titles and had always been there, “making lots of Finals”

Rafa would have to go into some sort of meltdown for him to not be a major threat this year, and I am predicting a fine season for him. The corollary however would be that he finds Novak waiting for him once again in all his finals – and with the same outcome. But seven in a row ? I just think the tables will turn at some point, and in Rafa’s favour. One added factor of course could be Federer’s reminder that he still has enough to block Rafa even before he can get his hands on Novak, just when Rafa might have been thinking that Fed’s days as a serious challenger in semis/finals were fading with age.


Federer

Much has been said about his fine run which now stands at 39-2, and rightly so. I doubt whether Federer himself - confident (or ‘arrogant’ according to some ..!) as he is - could have imagined that he would go on such a streak at this stage of his career and amidst such strong competition.

Not surprisingly there is scepticism that he can manage to sustain such a level through seven rounds of a Slam, and I would definitely agree that it seems a bridge too far. On the one hand he has been beating top guys, all much younger, (but then isn’t almost everyone younger than him ?!!) notably at WTF, Dubai and of course IW. But much as these wins have been impressive, he will be far more vulnerable over five sets. The balance of probabilities suggest he is perhaps due a rare early round exit sometime in the coming weeks/months - and very possibly at the hands of a non top 20 guy.

Whilst a winning mentality is of course deeply embedded within the Federer DNA I happen to think he is NOT obsessed with regaining Number One, or even with more Slams. For me he seems more at ease with himself than ever and family life and time have almost certainly helped soften the grind of the tour. I think Federer’s motivation right now comes from a desire to show that he can still cut it with the other members of the top four and that he is not slipping into sort of slow downward path which brings a clamour for retirement. (the reaction at blocking Novak’s path at RG last year when everyone fully expected yet another final Novak/Rafa encounter looked not far short of the satisfaction he gets when actually winning Slams). But nothing breeds confidence as much as winning and perhaps, just perhaps, a combination of contented family life off court with a still highly-focussed approach on court, might bring a surprise Slam-wise.



Murray

After putting up such a fight in the AO semi, in dramatic contrast to his submission in the Final a year before, there was every reason to hope that he would push on to better things and avoid a repeat of those R1 exits suffered in 2011. Dubai was good, not least his comfortable defeat of Novak, although a subsequent fall to Federer in straights seemed a bit of a letdown. No deep shame in that, given Fed’s current form, but the loss to Garcia-Lopez brought back unpleasant memories. Miami is now surely even more important to Andy than it is to the other guys. Yes he has nothing to defend there but that’s just the issue : if he is to get above number 4 this is where he can make progress points-wise. Either way he does need to start finding some long-term consistency and confidence asap. In the recent poll I voted for his IW exit as being ‘a blip’ rather than indicative of some sort of meltdown. But of course only time will tell if Andy - either with Lendl or in spite of him - can finally get his hands on the Slam trophy that he craves.


I said I wouldn’t focus on stats here but it’s hard to resist. To get a picture of how the Big Four have been performing against each other over a fair spread of time, I’ve looked back at their respective encounters since the beginning of 2010 up to and including Indian Wells just gone.

I have also added Del Potro to the mix - simply because he has so often been spoken of as a member of the group of young players whose rightful place is in the very top tier, or very close to it. His comeback from injury – impressive though it has been time-wise - does seem to have been checked just a little (?) in relation to expectations, notably by Federer

(ATP matches only, from start of 2010 to date)


Djokovic

vs. Djokovic -

vs. Nadal 7-2

vs. Federer 5-5

vs Murray 3-2

vs. Del Potro 1-0

Overall W/L 16-9 64%


Nadal

vs Djokovic 2-7

vs Nadal -

vs Federer 5-3

vs Murray 6-3

vs Del Potro 2-0

Overall W/L 15-13 53%


Federer


vs Djokovic 5-5

vs Nadal 3-5

vs Federer -

vs Murray 3-2

vs Del Potro 5-0

Overall W/L 16-12 57%


Murray

vs Djokovic 2-3

vs Nadal 3-6

vs Federer 2-3

vs Murray -

vs Del Potro 0-0

Overall W/L 7-12 37%



Del Potro

vs Djokovic 0-1

vs Nadal 0-2

vs Federer 0-5

vs Murray 0-0

vs. Del Potro -

Overall W/L 0-8 0%

Nice article. Interesting to see how the clay season goes especially in Rafa-Novak battles.

Excellent article lags , specially the Federer part is well summarized, he is enjoying his tennis right now and everything else is secondary for him now, thats a dangerous sign for his opponents coz Federer stress free will accomplish more.

I concur with above - it is an excellent article lags really summing up the individual top fours' performance well.

I think the clay season is going to be very interesting this year because I expect Rafa to exact revenge but he does not swing into that part of the year with quite the same aura of invincibility on the red stuff.

Great to see Fed enjoying his tennis - long may that continue!

Very good summing up. Don't know if it's just me, but the big four rivalry seems to get more and more interesting, with more and more twists, each year.
The fun thing is that each year seems to throw up something unexpected. There was Rafa's terrific 2008, then a seemingly down-and-out Federer springing back in 09. Few thought Rafa would do so well in 2010 and then no one could quite have foreseen Nole's amazing start to 2011.
Finally, we have a resurgent Fed on one of his best runs. Deliciously, no one quite knows what to expect next. I will make one prediction though. The present top four will be the year-end top four. But in what order ?

Sensational article, absolutely stunning write-up

Thanks to all so far for the positive feedback.

The article actually began life with me just mentally gathering my own thoughts on what lies ahead, but I won't deny that it's pleasing to see some genuine appreciation expressed by others.

Tennis-wise at least, we undoubtedly live in interesting times.

Lags72... May I suggest the addition of Isner to the list. He is now becoming the new Soderling, and along with Del Potro, a real threat to the Top 4.

Very nice, and balanced article.

Very refreshing article lags. Most enjoyable.

Great stuff Lags,

I just have one objection.

Isn't it time that the myth of the big four was laid to rest?

I like A Murray, and I do think he has the game to mix it with the other guys, but are his results really worthy of placing him in the same bracket?



emancipator

Uh oh, bad timing, Craig the Caledonian Warrior is around

Oh dear, and it was all going so well.......

emancipator wrote:Isn't it time that the myth of the big four was laid to rest?

I like A Murray, and I do think he has the game to mix it with the other guys, but are his results really worthy of placing him in the same bracket?

Should we discard Djokovic since he lost to world #11 at IW? Just 'yoking' (in Soderling's voice).

emancipator, and (less contentiously perhaps) laverfan too ..... I hear what you say.

However, permission requested in this case for me to diplomatically - meekly even - duck those questions/suggestions, rather than risk eroding, whether inadvertently or otherwise, any goodwill garnered by my 'nicely balanced' article.

Given that the semis of many events in 2011 (and all slams up to this point in 2012 too) were occupied by the top 4 then I think its fair to call them the Big 4 for now.

lags72 wrote:emancipator, and (less contentiously perhaps) laverfan too ..... I hear what you say.

However, permission requested in this case for me to diplomatically - meekly even - duck those questions/suggestions, rather than risk eroding, whether inadvertently or otherwise, any goodwill garnered by my 'nicely balanced' article.

My comment was to emancipator, Lags72.

The Top 4 are amazing players, and unique, each in their own right. I am also glad to see #5-#10 pushing hard on the the Top 4. It is always good to have and see good matches earlier in any tournament.

If I may suggest, please write more articles like this which definitely promote a 'kinder and gentler' 606v2.

Regarding Murray, i remember the AO 2012 SF much more than the IW R2 match.

laverfan - oops, misunderstood there sorry, I see what you mean. And thanks for the additional compliment. (I shall try my best, as & when the opportunity arises....)

lydian - very valid point re Murray. He won two Masters in 2011. No Slam as yet (but of course no Slam either for Fed in 2011, or 2012 thus far ....)

There were just two cases of members of the quartet NOT making at least the semis of every Slam in 2011/12 - and, interestingly enough, neither case involved AM.

Step forward please Mr. Nadal ('only' a QF at AO11) ; and step forward also Mr. Federer ('only' a QF at Wimby 2011). Shame on you both, it's just not good enough