PGA Tour: Arnold Palmer invites-who-the-hell-he-likes Invitational: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).Great to see the 2011 model Luke Donald prove he's lost none of his competitive edge with an exciting Transitions win last week, in circumstances that Ernie Els could only smoulder about. Have to feel sorry for the Big Easy; he gave himself the chance to resurrect his career and came up short. Actually short and right, then pulled left.

2).But that shouldn't detract from Luke's performance, clearly the best under playoff pressure, and now he's off for two weeks' practice before heading down Magnolia Lane with a confidence booster under his belt.

3).The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is considered by the pros to be the best of the "Florida Swing", but Transitions conclude their sponsorship this year and this Tampa-area stop remains the only PGA Tournament without a sponsor for 2013. The broadcasters last weekend seemed to consider a new sponsorship agreement was imminent, but no such optimism from Timmy Finchem in his news conference yesterday. Fingers crossed that a great event can be saved.

4).Finchem also has to find a sponsor for his secondary circuit, known currently as the Nationwide Tour. To try and build pizzaz and make his minor league effort more attractive to sponsors, he announced anticipated changes yesterday to the FedEx season, the PGA Tour season and the qualifying process.

Some details are posted here by pgatour.com:

http://www.pgatour.com/2012/company/03/20/schedule-nationwide-changes/index.html#

We'll all have different reactions, and some details have still to be worked out, the most ticklish being:
~How to dovetail the top 75 Nationwide players and PGA Tour moneylist #126 to #200 to assure the most deserving are given the best advantage to graduate from the brand new 3 event qualifying series.
and:
~~How to treat existing Fall Series events which now become the first tournaments of the 2013/2014 season. Do they receive full FedEx points? Do the winners receive a Masters invitation?? etc etc. The "Fry's.com" currently at the forefront of that debate.

The party line from the PGA Tour pros is: "In Tim we trust". Snedeker goes somewhat further and reminds us that it took the Tour four years to get the FedEx formula correct. We can't afford to have four goes at this, says Sneds, we have to get this right first time.

But there are sceptics: JB Holmes, who along with such luminaries as Dustin Johnson, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler, John Huh, etc reached the Tour first time via Q-School, had this to say:
"So we're going to end the season in September, then basically start it again a week later. We make all these (FedEx Cup six years ago) changes so that the season ends before (American) football starts, now we're back competing against football again.
Dumbest thing I've ever heard, and you can quote me on that." Thanks JB!

5).My feeling is that Finchem is missing a host of great storylines with his Q-School changes but, when the dust has settled, there will be only marginal impacts, primarily to the following:
a).Top international players outside the world's top 50, viz the Brian Davises, Alex Cjekas of this world who won't attract sponsors' invites and will be subjected to a two-year qualifying process. They might as well stay at home. And that's most probably Finchem's thinking, as he closes his shop to all but the most marketable "overseas" players.

b).US Collegiate players who would normally have a direct route to the "show" via Q-School. Unless they attract sponsors' exemptions and reach the top 200 money winners, they have a best case two-year road to get to the Tour.

c).The two-Tour double-dippers, think Oosthuizen, Westwood, Casey, Stenson etc who only play the minimum of 15 events. Currently they would bank on four FedEx tournaments contributing to those 15 with the knowledge that they could add a Fall Series event if necessary. But now, if they don't qualify for East Lake, they're stuck on 13 or 14, in Finchem's handcuffs, so they'll have to add an event or even two.

d).Lastly, Medical Exemptions are going to have to be thought through - no incentive to play through injury, go on the injured list asap.

6).Enough of that fluff, there are more important things in life:
Jarrod Lyle update: "I've finished my first round of chemotherapy, so I'm pretty much lying here in bed waiting to get an infection."
Lyle's sense of humour is irrepressible: "My immune system was pretty bad before I came in to hospital, now I'm a lot worse. It's one of those situations where you've got to get a lot worse before you get better. I'm just taking it day by day now."

7).And so to the Arnold Palmer invites-who-the-hell-he-likes Invitational at his Bay Hill Club outside Orlando. The winner this week, and next week in Houston, (but not on the European or any other Tours, oh no, no, no, no) will receive a Masters invitation, and so will the owgr top fifty not otherwise qualified as at Monday, March 26th. I'm assuming Paul Lawrie, at #45, is secure, so those who are on the bubble, with an approximation of what they need to do this week, are:
#48: Ben Crane: Playing Bay Hill and likely needs at least a top 18 finish to be sure.
#53: Goosen took the Tavistock money and rushed off for treatment on his ailing back rather than play Bay Hill and try to gain Masters entry. Bizarre and you'd rather think that, given that attitude, his career goose is cooked.
#57: Rock: Playing in Morocco and almost certainly needs to win, second place probably not quite enough.
#60: Chalmers: Playing Bay Hill, likely would qualify with a solo 3rd.
#61: Manassero: Playing Morocco and needs to win! Paying the price exacted by Billy Payne for not being Japanese.
#62: Els: Oh that missed par putt on Copperhead's 18th! Now needs at least a Bay Hill 2nd place - but he won here two years ago!
#64 and #65 Allenby and HowellIII might have a very mathematical chance with a 2nd place finish at Bay Hill, but their final destiny is out of their control given possible fluidity in and out of the top fifty.

8).If it's the Arnie Invitational it must be Sam Saunders on the tee, oh yes, and Robert Damron too. A bunch of others with similarly tenuous qualifications also. Come on Arnie, this is called abuse of power; these guys are not competitive and you've given them more than enough breaks. (Though there are rumours that Sam Saunders will be mailed a Masters invitation should he make this week's cut.)

9).One of the toughest tournaments to pick a winner at this week, Woods obviously with the most "previous" but who knows how fit he is (except possibly Hank Haney)? I like Webb Simpson's chances on lots of levels, but can't recommend anything more than a small e.w. investment on anyone, O'Hair and Jacobson rank outsiders with a touch of form here.

10).Martin Laird "defends" his title, McDowell has played well here and Poulter makes an appearance after his pneumonia and uncompetitive appearance at Doral. I'd imagine Justin Rose is running on fumes and Thomas Bjorn has withdrawn. Greg Owen is back, and can he make up for his mega-collapse a few years ago?
Stranger things have happened, just ask Tim Finchem.

mclarean i think your being unfair- Arnold mentioned that they take anyone- even kids from europe!!!!

lol.

I wonder if overtons 11 over would be good enough to win my club championship

3 putts aren't going to get it done.

GMac Better hope Tiger gets the ball wet.

The American health care system is designed to keep the wealthy living, and to help the poor die young.

And the States with the lowest life expectancy are represented in Congress by the politicians most vehemently against the most rudimentary universal health care. Some would call them racists.

Meanwhile, Woods is fighting against Paper Tigers, precious little fight from anyone, although McDowell has done his best. I suppose.

Very nice tournaments from Davis and Stenson though!

That's more like it Ernie!

I was pretty shocked when i found out that that town that was hit by a a hurricane and flooded recieved almost no help at all!! that would never happen in britain or the richer parts of the USA.

But on the flip side when an oil spill happens and BP were partly involved - They demoise britain in the press!!

There is a very close situation developing right now in relation to Els! Pitty he can't read this...

His fate is now actually much clearer and what he needs to do is to pick 2 more shots for a solo 3rd finish (hopefully 2 shots would be enough for a solo 3rd). With GMac now so far ahead of the rest in 2nd place, means no one else apart from Furyk is realistically in his way. And if it stays as it is now, with Furyk in a 6-way T12, if Ernie gets solo third, that will mean:

49. Ben Crane 2.704
50. Ernie Els 2.666
51. Jim Furyk 2.663

So can anybody tell Ernie that it's not over!! Needs to pick up two shots in the last 5 holes...

Ooops... as I wrote that Furyk is now T11 and that would move him ahead, but that can still change...

Wow, he heard my typing... picked a shot already! One more needed!

Prince, looks like cauley could be a bit of an obstacle for Els at the moment.

I think Ernie's going to need a second place finish, many of the guys ahead of Furyk will drop a shot on 17/18.

Yep, not going his way with Cauley and with Furyk now T10... But both these can still change, so Ernie just has to do his best...

Gmac evidently feeling the pressure. Not looking like he'll mount much of a challenge unless he really turns things around or Tiger starts driving like the Tiger of old.

His work with Sean Foley evidently paying off.

Anyone know what Gmac said on 13 after he missed the putt, the sky guys couldn't make it out. I wonder if he was cursing something Tiger did?

No Mc, some pleb in the gallery shouted something before he hit his second putt.

How is Johnny Miller still working in TV? Hes awful.

Not really sure how they can say its a valiant effort from GSpud, if it wasn't for holing 2 freak monster putts he'd be really way back. Hasnt played that well at all.

Tiger!!!!

A fine "W" ... look for him to be in the lead pack for lots of tournaments this year, starting in a couple weeks at Augusta!

Am now wondering if my probable 1st pick for the Masters leg of the Fantasy Game has peaked too early...

Still have reserve to choose though, as well as 6-man squad for sportsville's majors extravaganza (assuming it's running again).

Anyway, well played TW.

Very impressive, no getting away from it...but to be fair... how many of the top 10 in the rankings were there (a bit of an ironic question - given how many times that kind of statement was levelled at others when he wasn't there)

JAS - Absolutely ironic. Luke or lil' Mac could have chosen to compete. They didn't. You can't win if you don't tee it up.

Shotrock,
Typical American response.
Luke won last week.
Rors won the Honda, beating Eldrick of course.
Whaddya expect? Tiger to play Houston??

Great win by Woods, let's see what he does at Augusta National when the World comes to play.

(PS: He'll quite possibly win.)

Only two rounds under 70 today, Tiger did what he had to.

Not having a go at his Woodsness either way Shotrock, it was a very professional closing out. I've been saying for a long time...he hasn't put 4 good rounds together yet...now he has. Game changed!!

No criticism of Luke or Rory either, they have their Masters preparations and it is what it is.

I think this years Masters has the potential of being absolutely epic.

Sets it all up for the best US Masters for years. World 1 & 2 on form (and happen to be from GBNI), Tiger's back and some of the usual and a few new possible contenders. Men's Pro golf is in good shape!

Personally, I'm glad to see Tiger back to winning ways, which I just couldn't see the other week. The more good players contending right at the top, the more interesting it is for us hackers to watch.

Congratz to TW for getting his first win in 30+ months.

TW easily gets into the top 8 of the US Ryder Cup standings.

GMac goes from 10th to #5 in the RC Ryder Cup OWGR point standings and IJP goes to #23 and at least in the periphery of RC contention. Michael Hoey went from 18th to 12th with his win in Morocco.

Tiger was hitting the ball so well he has to be a favorite for the Masters. He's been playing poorly the last two years and still finished fourth twice. I say he takes it but winning a major will be the acid test.

This course today was extremely tough, 70 in those conditions, under that pressure was every bit as good as his 62 a few weeks back.

Kwin - Typical British response. My guy "coulda" won if he was there.

C'mon, you should know by now I have never nor ever would diminish a win by Luke or Lil Mac because Tiger, when he was ranked #1 in the world, didn't compete.

You can only beat who competes against you.

Sr,

Maybe, but not my typical response.




I just don't understand why Palmer felt he had to call out Donald and McIlroy (but not Stricker, Dustin or Keegs, oh no!) for not playing. And then there's the bandwagon of public opinion.

Luke's now winning his share, Tiger's starting to and Rory certainly is. Fact is, Woods did what we said he had to do today and no-one else showed up, relatively speaking; McDowell is disappointed I'm sure, Poults probably quite happy he's secured his place in the Play-Offs and Ernie desolate. The rest were also rans.

Woods now about 6th in the world, probably about right based on form these past few months. He'll have to mount the next few rungs of the ladder the old fashioned way.

kwinigolfer wrote:...Woods now about 6th in the world, probably about right based on form these past few months. He'll have to mount the next few rungs of the ladder the old fashioned way.

True, before people get too excited about TW becoming #1 again over night, that's not gonna happen so fast... I didn't do a proper calculation, but in all likelyhood, even if he wins the Masters in two weeks time, the best he can hope for after that is probably #4...

Kwin - Of this I'm sure: Tiger doesn't care what his world rankings are unless they stop him from competing in a major. Great win for Tiger but I strongly suspect he won't feel he's back until he holds a major trophy again.

He can't wait for Augusta.

Rory sure showed his stuff at Congressional, but can't feel good about the last Sunday he played at Bobby's track.

He can't wait for Augusta.

Luke's been the man to beat, and now he wants to put his stamp on a major.

He can't wait for Augusta.

And I can't wait either, but would not say for sure that any of these 3 will win. Didn't see Schwartzel last year, but that's golf.

Interesting story that Arnold Palmer was not beside the 18th green during the final shots at Bay Hill; he was being treated for a high blood pressure reading reportedly following a new medication.

He was hospitalised and expected to be detained overnight.

Rumours that he had protested "Hell no!" when told he was being admitted to his very own Arnold Palmer hospital couldn't be confirmed.

Hopefully Arnie will be right as rain in the morning, perhaps after writing 100 lines, "I will not invite Sam Saunders, Skip Kendall, Robert Gamez, Andrew Magee, Robert Damron, Daniel Chopra or Scott McCarron to my tournament ever again."

in all honesty i reakon tiger really does care about being no1.
He is that sort of person, he is only happy when he is winning. Its why he has only ever won majors from the lead, its why he pulled out the other week

I'd say the desire to win is a pretty good trait for a professional sportsman. I'm sure he does want to be number one again, but one thing leads to another, you have to win golf tournaments first.

Lol that leaderboard(woods 5 ahead looks ominous)

The only saving grace is that doanld, mcilroy or westy wouldnt have been beaten by 5 out there!!

Roll on the masters.

The big 4 are the 4 mentioned above and i believe one will win . Great that tiger has won from my POV it means everyone elses odds will go up!

A good win for the man sausage. His first proper tournament in nearly three years, so while one swallow doesn't make a summer I suppose you can point it as progress, even if the top five were absent and Poulter, who usually can't kick his own backside in the states managed third.

This is as far as my reluctant praise for Cocknose Woods will go.

Who knows what would have happened if the big boys had been there. I don't think anyone on here would be discussing the strength of the field if Gdick or Els had won yesterday.
It was a good win done at a canter really, if Rory had won by five we'd be raving about him again. Same with Luke.
Anyway you are right, Augusta shaping up to be a classic fingers crossed.

Obviously the 3 i mentioned may not have turned up, However certainly odds on for one of them to have challenged tiger. Luke and rors would not have gone gone backwards final round if there were in contention.

This masters could be the best since the golden days of faldo, seve and norman!!

Hopefully Woods will miss the cut. He may have putters well last week, but that's about once in three years. He could ruin the masters as a spectacle with all the commentators and directors fawning and trousers climbing over him

I have a feeling his ego may burst.. Id rather him be up with the top boys in fairness. A win would be sweeter for our boys if he is playing well

Bay hill was awarded 56 owgr points while the honda only got 50 and the transitions 58. So actually the field strength was greater at bay hill compared to rory's win in the honda. I always think it is about the chance of the field beating you rather than individual players.

The conditions were tough, as the scoring of the other players in the last few groups showed, yet woods posted the lowest winning score at bay hill since 2006. He was one of very few players to have control over his ball in windy and tough conditions, when was the last time we could say that?

Mac, there were lots of players who shot the same or better than Woods yesterday, let's not pretend he did something that no one else was capable of. He won a tournament, but you shouldn't get carried away.

super_realist wrote:Hopefully Woods will miss the cut. He may have putters well last week, but that's about once in three years. He could ruin the masters as a spectacle with all the commentators and directors fawning and trousers climbing over him

Must be gutting for you SR, one week he's injured and people are questioning whether he can play the Masters, the next he is cruising to a win and driving the best he has for years, maybe ever in fact.
I hope the coverage is balanced at Augusta but wont be him ruining it if its not. Not his fault. Potentially who do we have. Mickleson, Coco, Woods, LW, Luke I think will all be in the mix plus maybe Schwartzel if he can find some form. Bound to be one of the other yanks there or there abouts as well. Mahan perhaps ?
I actually think either Woods or Coco could run away with it, hopefully that wont happen and it will be tight all the way.

Bay hill didnt seem as strong as those rankings suggest. Its more about haveing the top polayers in the field over loads of the also rans in my opinion.

Anyway great win for tiger- the course was a very good test. That says alot as well

Even if you had the top players there you still have to look at how often they actually win. Rory 3 in 41 starts, Donald 5 in 221 starts and Westwood 2 in 149 starts and his last win on tour was 2010.
Sure they would have improved the field but they dont win every week they tee it up, far from it.

Diggers

It is good to see someone else gets the importance of field strength.

Diggers wrote:Even if you had the top players there you still have to look at how often they actually win. Rory 3 in 41 starts, Donald 5 in 221 starts and Westwood 2 in 149 starts and his last win on tour was 2010.
Sure they would have improved the field but they dont win every week they tee it up, far from it.

erm not sure id agree with that at all. I agree that woods win was as good as donalds the week before, roses the week before that and mcilroys the week before that.

however you are using stats that are completly immaterial to recent form. there have no bearing in this debate from my pov. look at recent form not just form on one tour thoughout a career!!!!

My point originally was allways about gauging tigers dominance on the field. we will o nly know if he really is back to his best when we get him playing at that level at thye same time as someone like rors,donlad, westy or kaymer! and i am hoping that will be at the masters.

When it comes to tiger - he was possibly the only golfer (one of very few sportsmen) to b e completly dominant and it really was only about his form- didnt matter if another player had his sunday best game on- he wasnt gonna win if tiger was on form.

my point was that allthough woods won that event by a long way(5 shots is a very big win) . he is not that dominant on the best there is. Whereas a few years back he was that good against the best there is

Recent form is fine but it sill doesnt mean that because you won the week before you are going to turn up and win the next week. At the end of the day players win a certain amount of times a season, thats just the way it is.
But I agree with you that he needs to be measured against the best at majors. However to put the boot on the other foot we also need to measure Coco against a confident Woods playing well.

Diggers I am sorry you used stats based on carrers on one tour- how the heck is that material!! we all know that westy had an 8 year slump and most of his success is on the euro tour. We all know that donald is a completly different golfer over the last couple of years-!, we all know that rory has only just matured over the last year into the golfer he is!!

Its simple- If woods wins the masters by 5 shots over donald, rory, westy or all 3! then he is back. All tiger has done is beat the less form players this week, not the best.

The rankings are the perfect gauge on form(forget your carrer stats on one tour- use rankings ok!)- so when you have a field without the top 5- you can never call it that strong- even if you have the next 45.

Mysti

Think of field strength (OWGR point allocation) as a measure of how good the winning score is likely to be and the probability that someone beats your score. When thinking of it in this way the rankings of the players involved becomes almost irrelevant as it is the overall strength that is measured.