If Cotto Can Control The Pace...

I'm one of the few believers that Cotto can actually pull off an upset against Floyd and I just wonder if he can control the pace against Floyd can he win?

The only two boxers he's ever lost to were tremendous pace setters and completely put Cotto out of his comfort zone and overwhelmed him with a terrific volume of punches. Cotto was so used to being the fighter in which HE set the pace and he could bully his opposition around the ring, when it happens the other way around I believe it's an awful lot more energy sapping for a fighter that isn't used to being on the receiving end of it.

Completely different fighter in Floyd, who is able to be pushed back and in a way bullied at times. Of course Floyd is without his suprises in the way he was so aggressive against a good sized Welterweight in SSM and a HUGE WW in Ortiz, however a few things I've noticed in Floyds career:


When he steps up in weight he seems to have some sort of mentality in which he fights on the back foot and is slightly easier to be bullied.

Against Jose Luis Castillo he had this problem and was walked back when he actually had a lot of opportunities to come forward and turn Castillo onto the ropes himself as he does in a lot of other fights.

This didn't happen at LWW, I must admit which is a slight flaw in my theory, HOWEVER, if we look at the opponents that he faced, Arturo Gatti was much too slow and a fighter that Floyd could bully with pure speed alone.

Against Judah at the beginning he was being pushed back a lot and caught with shots, must give Floyd credit here with the fact that he did decide to become the bully in this fight towards the middle stages and really put the pain in Judah, however must also say that pushing Judah back was his main weakness as he never really liked to be put out of his comfort zone which was his achilles heel, so he wasn't really the correct type of fighter to show this possible flaw in Floyd.

And of course the example you were all reading and knowing what was going to come was ODLH, the weight he is now fighting at, and agaisnt a bigger man that wanted to push him agaisnt the ropes and bully him did just so, not with quite enough method however. I remember when Roach was talking about the Pacqiaou Vs. ODLH fight, he was saying that he was shocked about ODLH's ring smarts, Roach said that ODLH actually didn't know what cutting the ring off was, and had to actually teach him ring cutting off techniques for the fight and other bullying tactics.

Ok, a slightly off the wall theory, but I genuinely believe that there's a good possibility when Floyd moves up in weight it's possible that he can get bullied.

Ok, so do you think it is possible for Cotto to control the pace of the fight and win the rounds whilst he is, and can we see him managing that for 7 rounds to nick the fight? I think it's a good possiblity.

He could get bullied by a big 154lber like Alvarez potentially but strength wise i'd give him the edge over Cotto who's quite small at the weight. Against a fighter the calibre of Mayweather it would take someone a bit better than Cotto to dictate the pace, when you're so outmatched in techincal ability, timing and speed it's a hard task. I'd also say he lacks world class power to stop Mayweather doing what he wants and because he fights on the back foot doesn't mean he's being bullied, he's doing it by choice rather than being forced back.

Even at the lower weights he loved a guy tearing into him, watch the ease with which he dealt with N'dou and Chavez, both bigger stronger men than him at the time who both threw 100 punches a round, with ring generalship he moves himself into the perfect place to counter and retreat.

I do tend to think that you've analysed Mayweather from the wrong angle, to me he's the most perfect boxer since Leonard and with the exception of the first Castillo fight he has done exactly what he wanted to do. Would possibly throw it out there and say that Castillo was a better lightweight than Cotto is light middleweight and to be honest that fight was 10 years ago.

Must disagree, I beliee that Cotto is a better fighter than Castillo at LMW than he was at LW, would also say that whilst throwing 100 punches Chavez and especially N'Dou were technically flawed and put on the pressure rather unintelligently. N'Dou was caught so much because he didn't bring his left jab back up and let it hang which was perefect for Floyds pulled straight right counter.

Chavez was extremely wild and FOLLOWED Mayweather around the ring, he did not cut it off at all and let's be honest was so open it was going to be difficult for Floyd not to catch him.

I'm not talking about Cotto "tearing into him" I'm talking about Cotto using intelligent pressure to cut off the ring and steal 7 rounds with him managing to do so.

I can't see how Cotto can win this fight, terrible style match up for him. I can't see any area where he is better than Floyd, maybe an edge in power but that isn't going to be enough. I think it'll be quite cagey for the first half of the fight but as it wears on Floyd will start landing that straight right hand down the middle with more frequency until Cotto has to be the one fighting on the run while Floyd takes the centre of the ring.

I would say that Castillo was a genuinely world class lightweight while Cotto isn't quite at that level. When you're a pressure fighter you want to get at your opponent where a jab becomes fairly redundant.

Mayweather made Chavez follow him round the ring, when you're outmatched in every area apart from size and strength trying to cut off Mayweather is a pretty difficult thing to do, he's one of a few fighters who is very comfortable fighting off the ropes even against De La Hoya he was more than happy to do it.

Personally don't think Cotto is an intelligent enough fighter to cut off the ring against a faster and better mover, I get the feeling it's going to end up the other way round with Mayweather pressing the action like he has done recently. He's a bigger stronger fighter than the one who faced De La Hoya, who was always going to be bigger and stronger. It was a fight where it made little sense to be aggressive when he didn't have the power to hurt his opponent but carries enough of a pop to make Cotto respect him.

Think it's very possible, and to be honest I think everything will be shown in the first few rounds.

But I make Cotto a very live underdog from the start, personally.

Possible if Mayweather has lost a major step but otherwise very very unlikely, he just wont get bullied by Cotto.

The problem is that if a fighter decides to try and bully floyd, they will be countered when they attack. That will make them weary and cautious and in Cotto's case, change tactic imo. Cotto will lose probably by shut-out/ He will be competitive, but he's just not up to par for someone like floyd.

Well, it's a great article Alex, and a fine theory as in you've certainly done your homework and argued your points well. That said, I don't agree - but that'll just make it all the more sweet for you if it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong!

If there's one slight (and I do mean very slight) question mark about Mayweather, it's how he'd deal with a world class opponent who makes him go looking for him, rather than the other way round. I wish Winky were a bit younger and still down at 154 lb, for instance.

Cotto just isn't that kind of fighter. Maybe he should have been, given that he has a great jab (though he's giving away a fair bit of reach to Mayweather, another problem for him here) but leopard and spots spring to mind. So that leaves him to be the aggressor, as you allude to. I don't think Cotto hits hard enough to make Mayweather go in to his shell. I don't think he throws enough punches to win this fight by workrate. I don't actually think he's the physically stronger of the two, either. He wanted no part of Margarito up close and in clinches, and Clottey had him backpeddling (but not impressive backpeddling) most of the night.

Had this fight happened back in 2006 / 2007 / 2008, I'd make Cotto the shortest-priced challenger to Mayweather since the Corrales fight, but I just don't think Miguel is the same fighter anymore. He's regressed, but the largely average opposition he's fought since the first Margarito fight has masked that to some degree. I know that you don't share that belief Alex, but I just can't get it out of my head when I consider this match up.

No doubt, Cotto will walk to Mayweather early doors as you suggest, but I don't see him bullying him and certainly not outjabbing him. Mayweather too fast, too elusive and too much of an expert of the right hand lead, which Cotto simply can't avoid.

Can imagine we are two of a select few who would have wanted to see Mayweather fight Wright, a fight for the purist of purists although there was talk of a fight as far back as 2005.

You need more of a Margarito type fighter to pressure Mayweather, someone you know does have a few advantages and beyond all the controversy he was very good at cutting the ring off.

Floyd v Winky would be sleep inducing. I'd pick Winky to win that one though primarily due to his size and he has sublime skills. But by God was he boring.

88Chris05 wrote:Had this fight happened back in 2006 / 2007 / 2008, I'd make Cotto the shortest-priced challenger to Mayweather since the Corrales fight, but I just don't think Miguel is the same fighter anymore.

Exactly so.

I am a massive Cotto fan - too much of a Cotto fan perhaps - but I can't see this one. Prime Cotto I could see beating Castillo1Floyd. Has Floyd slowed down recently? Yes. Has he slowed down enough? Probably not. Since his comeback he's lost about 2 rounds at best. Sure - Cotto's left to the body was a great weapon and could hurt Floyd - and Miguel has bagfuls of boxing skills. However - he hasn't looked the same since Margarito 1 - and I'm not sure he's done enough to excise his demons with the surgical performance of Margarito 2.

Is pbf around? I'd have thought he'd be on here hyping this one to the 9s...

IF he can control the pace yea he can win. But can he control the pace, I really doubt it.

Castillo was a long time ago, I think mayweather learnt a lot from that fight as he has been sublime since then.

De La Hoya was a big LMW, he probably entered the ring nearing or greater than 170lbs. I doubt that cotto will even get close to 165. He also stands at 5"7 with a 67 inch reach. De la Hoya stood at 5"10/11 with a 73 inch reach. He had size advantages vs mayweather that cotto just won't have. Mayweather is taller than him and has a longer reach. De la Goya had success when he used his jab to get inside.

Ortiz is also bigger than cotto and Mosley is about the same size and mayweather was walking forward being aggressive fighting in the pocket with great success. Can't see how cotto can bully him and if cotto misses like most people do vs floyd, it will be him go is forcing the shots out with no real rhythm which means floyd will be able to take over and control the tempo

well alex, looks like you'll be dining out on this if cotto pulls it off. Two hopes of it happening imo, but if it does i'll be on here eating my humble crumble.

Not sure when this mythical prime of Cotto was, that he's now past. Clearly a very good fighter, as was say Ricky Hatton by way of contemporary comparison. Long way from ever being Mayweather's class, not now, not ever imo.

It'll be the equivalent of Colin Hart predicting Ali/Foreman, believe me.

You don't think he's looked a little jaded since being bashed by Margarito (whether or not you believe Margarito had any added "help" Milkyboy?

Anyway - Alex - I will never have been so happy to be wrong - and yes I will be eating humble pie as well.

WHU_Champo_League_in_7Yrs wrote:IF he can control the pace yea he can win. But can he control the pace, I really doubt it.

Castillo was a long time ago, I think mayweather learnt a lot from that fight as he has been sublime since then.

De La Hoya was a big LMW, he probably entered the ring nearing or greater than 170lbs. I doubt that cotto will even get close to 165. He also stands at 5"7 with a 67 inch reach. De la Hoya stood at 5"10/11 with a 73 inch reach. He had size advantages vs mayweather that cotto just won't have. Mayweather is taller than him and has a longer reach. De la Goya had success when he used his jab to get inside.

Ortiz is also bigger than cotto and Mosley is about the same size and mayweather was walking forward being aggressive fighting in the pocket with great success. Can't see how cotto can bully him and if cotto misses like most people do vs floyd, it will be him go is forcing the shots out with no real rhythm which means floyd will be able to take over and control the tempo

Please don't use the Ortiz fight as a form-line..Mayweather suckered him...

For the four rounds it lasted you can use it.

Snakeyman123 wrote:
Please don't use the Ortiz fight as a form-line..Mayweather suckered him...

I wasn't really, I was just pointing out that if a bigger pressure fighter than Cotto couldn't bully floyd or make him run, then how can cotto. Although floyd sucker punched him, he was I control and was boxing beutifully in the pocket, frustrating Ortiz hence the headbutt

AlexHuckerby wrote:It'll be the equivalent of Colin Hart predicting Ali/Foreman, believe me.

colin was drunk when he put his prediction Alex, what are you on?

Happy to believe cotto has slipped, Oxring, just didn;t think his prime was anything to write home about... sorry!

C'mon - Ortiz was whipped - the mismatch was awful. Emphasises how good Floyd is - and he's several divisions above Ortiz. Twas like watching Barcelona play Scunthorpe Utd.

milkyboy wrote:

AlexHuckerby wrote:It'll be the equivalent of Colin Hart predicting Ali/Foreman, believe me.

colin was drunk when he put his prediction Alex, what are you on?

Happy to believe cotto has slipped, Oxring, just didn;t think his prime was anything to write home about... sorry!

I will find you. And make you pay...

Fair enough actually. I've become more of a fan of Cotto post-Margarito 1 - for the way he's fought on with great heart and courage with obviously diminished skills. Actually thought he did OK last time out - so it remains to be seen how much his new Cuban trainer has managed to teach him.

milkyboy wrote:

AlexHuckerby wrote:It'll be the equivalent of Colin Hart predicting Ali/Foreman, believe me.

colin was drunk when he put his prediction Alex, what are you on?

Happy to believe cotto has slipped, Oxring, just didn;t think his prime was anything to write home about... sorry!

I meant with how much I'll be dining out on it

Good job there's 0% of it happening then mate.

WHU_Champo_League_in_7Yrs wrote:

Snakeyman123 wrote:
Please don't use the Ortiz fight as a form-line..Mayweather suckered him...

I wasn't really, I was just pointing out that if a bigger pressure fighter than Cotto couldn't bully floyd or make him run, then how can cotto. Although floyd sucker punched him, he was I control and was boxing beutifully in the pocket, frustrating Ortiz hence the headbutt

Fair comment. Agreed that Mayweather has too much for Cotto.. But v Pacquiao, before Miguel started trading he was outboxing Manny..If he continued to work behind the jab he would have won that fight.

He didn't just start trading he was knocked down then did his usual thing of trying to fight fire with fire, outboxing Mayweather is a far harder task than Pacquiao.

Snakeyman123 wrote:
Fair comment. Agreed that Mayweather has too much for Cotto.. But v Pacquiao, before Miguel started trading he was outboxing Manny..If he continued to work behind the jab he would have won that fight.

True, but floyd isn't Manny. Manny is a great in an out fighter whereas floyd is a counterpuncher who can counter walking forwards, a very talented skill to have. Cotto did well with the jab because he had a reach and height advantage vs manny, something he won't have. He gets hit too often too, which makes vs floyd all the harder. Floyd lands over 40% I average and if cotto's skin swells then he may panic. He isn't the same fighter

He had a very small height advantage of 1/2 inch over Pacquiao but they have the same reach which does highlight that he isn't the biggest of light middleweights.

WHU_Champo_League_in_7Yrs wrote:

Snakeyman123 wrote:
Fair comment. Agreed that Mayweather has too much for Cotto.. But v Pacquiao, before Miguel started trading he was outboxing Manny..If he continued to work behind the jab he would have won that fight.

True, but floyd isn't Manny. Manny is a great in an out fighter whereas floyd is a counterpuncher who can counter walking forwards, a very talented skill to have. Cotto did well with the jab because he had a reach and height advantage vs manny, something he won't have. He gets hit too often too, which makes vs floyd all the harder. Floyd lands over 40% I average and if cotto's skin swells then he may panic. He isn't the same fighter

Cotto frustrated the hell out of me in that fight. Had the right tactics then started fighted inside...

Agreed he doesn't have the answer to Floyd, who does??

Mainly because Pacquiao knocked him down.

Imperial Ghosty wrote:Mainly because Pacquiao knocked him down.

Cotto was effective in the early stages of the fight whilst operating the jab..When he neglected the jab Manny dominated him....

Snakeyman123 wrote:
Cotto frustrated the hell out of me in that fight. Had the right tactics then started fighted inside...

Agreed he doesn't have the answer to Floyd, who does??

Same, he started well but he didn't hold up well when hit cleanly. Perhaps I was the weight, perhaps margarito but he didn't react to punches like he used too. Pacquiao was just too fast for him.

In regards to floyd, I don't know who has the answers to him, he has fought pretty much every style in both the pro and amateur games. I think he schools pacquiao but can understand why others think he can cause the upset. the problem for me is there isn't an abundance of hugely talented fighter in the 140-154 lb divisions. I think Martinez pre macklin ( i thought he looked pretty bad in that fight)would be a nightmare for floyd. He has a longer reach, and unorthodox southpaw style and power to boot.

After Pacquiao had knocked him down at the end of the 3rd round and in the fourth, it was a conscious decision by Cotto but one forced on him by Pacquiao.

Im not sure Cotto can be any more effective than de la Hoya was against Mayweather and I dont think he has the same durability or strength at the weight.

I would disagree with the comments made by Roach which paint de la Hoya as clueless at closing down an opponent or cutting off the ring. I actually think he better at it than Cotto and I would predict a more comfortable fight for Mayweather than he had against de la Hoya.

WHU_Champo_League_in_7Yrs wrote:

Snakeyman123 wrote:
Cotto frustrated the hell out of me in that fight. Had the right tactics then started fighted inside...

Agreed he doesn't have the answer to Floyd, who does??

Same, he started well but he didn't hold up well when hit cleanly. Perhaps I was the weight, perhaps margarito but he didn't react to punches like he used too. Pacquiao was just too fast for him.

In regards to floyd, I don't know who has the answers to him, he has fought pretty much every style in both the pro and amateur games. I think he schools pacquiao but can understand why others think he can cause the upset. the problem for me is there isn't an abundance of hugely talented fighter in the 140-154 lb divisions. I think Martinez pre macklin ( i thought he looked pretty bad in that fight)would be a nightmare for floyd. He has a longer reach, and unorthodox southpaw style and power to boot.

Martinez may have the key - shame hes isn't a little bit lighter - a victory would always have an asterisk next to it..

Martinez beating Mayweather would be a great win regardless of being the bigger man, suddenly you beat a fighter moving up and it has an asterix when you're talking about a great fighter like Mayweather moving up 6lbs doesn't diminish a win that much.

Imperial Ghosty wrote:Martinez beating Mayweather would be a great win regardless of being the bigger man, suddenly you beat a fighter moving up and it has an asterix when you're talking about a great fighter like Mayweather moving up 6lbs doesn't diminish a win that much.

Are you suggesting that in the event of Martinez beating Mayweather @154 nobody would question Floyd's effectiveness at the weight??

At 154lbs definitely not but we aren't talking about a standard fighter in Mayweather. Haglers two best wins came against smaller fighters who were untested at the weight but because they were two great fighters he still gets the credit he deserves.

Imperial Ghosty wrote:At 154lbs definitely not but we aren't talking about a standard fighter in Mayweather. Haglers two best wins came against smaller fighters who were untested at the weight but because they were two great fighters he still gets the credit he deserves.

So if Martinez beat Floyd at 154 there [b]would be an asterisk next to the result?

Mayweather as a two time world champion at 154lbs would mean there would be no asterisk, do we place an asterisk next to Hagler for beating Hearns or what about the hundreds of title fights when the challenger has moved up not that Mayweather would even be doing that.

Not the same mate - Floyd has moved up several weight divisions already.. Please acknowledge the fact the if Martinez beat Floyd people would cite weight as a factor......

Snakeyman123 wrote:

Imperial Ghosty wrote:At 154lbs definitely not but we aren't talking about a standard fighter in Mayweather. Haglers two best wins came against smaller fighters who were untested at the weight but because they were two great fighters he still gets the credit he deserves.

So if Martinez beat Floyd at 154 there [b]would be an asterisk next to the result?

Same as there's an asterix next to Maxim beating Sugar Ray Robinson.

Snakeyman123 wrote:Not the same mate - Floyd has moved up several weight divisions already.. Please acknowledge the fact the if Martinez beat Floyd people would cite weight as a factor......

That makes no difference at all, Mayweather once he beats Cotto will be the number one light middleweight in the world and if he loses to Martinez at 154 or 160lbs it will be a great win and achievement.

Hagler beating Duran was a great win because he was beating a great fighter.

I agree it would be a great achievement - I am stating that some people would cite weight as a factor....

Weight is a factor in every single fight but it doesn't mean you put an 'asterisk' next to a win, I don't know when the whole dismiss any win thing started but it's being taken to ridiculous levels.

I agree - I am just predicting the reaction if it were to happen..

The reaction of the wind up merchants but no sensible boxing fan.

Imperial Ghosty wrote:The reaction of the wind up merchants but no sensible boxing fan.

Such a thing exists?

Imperial Ghosty wrote:The reaction of the wind up merchants but no sensible boxing fan.

I'll let you sort them out then...

I think it would depend on how Mayweather fares against Cotto and the manner in which Martinez hypothetically beat him.

The de la Hoya fight has probably been the least convincing display by Mayweather since his first Castillo fight. I do think the weight played a part in this although I still think Mayweather was good for the win.

If he were to win in a less than convincing fashion against Cotto then I think people would query if the weight was a factor. And if Martinez were to go on and beat him I can definately see people using the weight as a big factor.

But if he handles Cotto without too much difficulty then along with the de la Hoya win I think he would have established himself enough at the weight to make it hard to question the value of a Martinez win.

Throughout history though there have definately been cases of fighters not getting full credit for wins based on weight issues. Especially if the loser has little or no credentials at the weight. I think it depends, on hindsight, how much of a threat the fighter was deemed at the weight, and the manner of the vicotry. For instance were Martinez to dominate Mayweather I think people would be far quicker to use the weight excuse much like Tyson gets limited credit for dominating Spinks or Frazier gets limitd credit for dominating Foster or Patterson/Ali for beating Moore.