Miami proves to be a stumbling block for Federer again

Miami might be in the sunshine state, but the sun doesn't shine on Federer in Miami.

Miami has seen Federer at his worst, in much the same way as the World Tour Finals has seen him at his best. Miami is where it all seems to fall apart for him, in much the same way as it all seems to come together for him at the World Tour Finals.

It isn’t really a surprise since Miami has the slowest hardcourts on the ATP tour and the World Tour Finals have fast courts.

Here are Fed’s losses at Miami since 2007.

2007(fourth round)- Lost to Canas (Canas had also beaten him in the fourth round at Indian Wells a few days ago). It was incredible to see Federer losing on hard courts to the same player twice in the span of a few days.

2008 (quarterfinal)- Lost to Roddick for the first time since 2003.

2009 (semifinal)- Lost to Djokovic and broke his racket. An uncharacteristic Federer moment. When has he ever done something like that? After the loss, he said that he was glad the hard court season was over and was looking forward to the clay season (This is a great hard court player talking!)

2010(fourth round)- Lost to Berdych, a player who he had beaten the last 8 times they had played. Went on to lose to Berdych again at Wimbledon that year

2011 (semifinal)- Lost to Nadal. Quite possibly the worst match he has ever played. Peter Bodo wrote: “He played perhaps the worst match of his career in that semifinal loss to Nadal—that is, if you can call standing flat-footed and waving the racquet in the general direction of the ball for about an hour "playing." "

2012(Third round)- Comes to Miami on the back of a win at Indian Wells Masters, but the curse strikes again. Loses to Roddick for the first time since 2008 Miami. In 24 matches, Federer has lost to Roddick thrice. 2 of these losses were at Miami. Since 2003, he has lost to Roddick only at Miami.

Whenever Federer plays in Miami his shank ratio seems to double. Every time he hits a backhand I'm praying he lands it on the strings rather than framing another one into the crowd.

Chazfazzer wrote:Whenever Federer plays in Miami his shank ratio seems to double. Every time he hits a backhand I'm praying he lands it on the strings rather than framing another one into the crowd.

This time it wasn't his UEs that costed him the match. His winners:UE ratio was good in this match. 43 winners: 26 UEs. It was loss of focus and being too casual on important occasions. A-Rod made him pay for those.

A little bit mix-up of Roddick playing better, but only just. A focused Fed won't have allowed so many chances to him.

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

Chazfazzer wrote:Whenever Federer plays in Miami his shank ratio seems to double. Every time he hits a backhand I'm praying he lands it on the strings rather than framing another one into the crowd.

This time it wasn't his UEs that costed him the match. His winners:UE ratio was good in this match. 43 winners: 26 UEs. It was loss of focus and being too casual on important occasions. A-Rod made him pay for those.

A little bit mix-up of Roddick playing better, but only just. A focused Fed won't have allowed so many chances to him.

I did not see the match but read some commentary and it seems that Fed was a bit casual as you said. Not saying he wanted to lose...but did he really want to win?

Remember he needed to win 4 more tough matches in 5 days. And I just realised that Miami is the sole TMS where they need to win 6 matches to win. That might be the answer to Tennisanorak's OP.

EDIT: Actually like IW...so 2 in a row is a bit too much..

Not trying to use this as an excuse but considering how he always sweats so much when he plays there,I think he may find the conditions difficult to cope with
I don't know if its the altitude or the humidity,but its unusual considering how he never breaks out such a sweat playing anywhere else
I recall him sweating profusely against Nadal last year

Confirms a bit what I was saying. He says it's mental cause in my view the next 4 matches in 5 days were getting to his mind.

ROGER FEDERER: No, I mean, Love 40 I had my chances. I don't think I saw a second serve. Maybe I did. I'm not sure.
He did well, but obviously at that point I felt I was being the better man. I had my regrets in the first set. I didn't come out with a lot of energy. I was pretty flat today. I just felt tired, I guess.
I have been playing so much. It was more mental than physical thing.

The dilemma for him now is whether he enters MC not having done well here if he wants to gain points as he's just lost 315 pts here. They can't all play 100% all the time, often you have to win when not at your best, today he wasn't able to it. At the end of the day Roddick played well too....mixed it up and changed his tactics against Roger.....considering where Roddick has been in the game of late you have to also praise him for battling away when he could have easily rolled over given their H2H.

Tenez- they have to win 6 matches even at Indian Wells!

I missed the match.

Given ROTLA has provided the UE count against winners, it seems that Roddick must've brought a good game with him to be able defeat Federer.

Opens the draw up somewhat.

Murray needs to work for Federer now and win that title!

Tenez wrote:Murray needs to work for Federer now and win that title!

sigh, I expect a straight sets loss to Nadal after a lot of huffing and puffing.

legendkillarV2 wrote:I missed the match.

Given ROTLA has provided the UE count against winners, it seems that Roddick must've brought a good game with him to be able defeat Federer.

Opens the draw up somewhat.

No it wasn't even that LK, Roddick played decent, but was nothing spectacular. Roddick's winners:UE's ratio was about 30:16, Fed was ahead in every dept of the game except 1st set % which really dripped after losing 4 break point chances on Roddick's serve to get to a 2-0 lead in the 3rd. From there on Roddick managed to put some fire in his serving and Fed who was returning all good till that time, couldn't get those back.

Good win for Roddick, but it was completely Fed's match to lose and he did in the end. Roddick wanted the win more than Fed.

True, but he did win Miami 05 and 06 beating Nadal, Agassi, Henman in one and Ljubicic 7-6 7-6 7-6 in the other.

I think Federer should play Monte Carlo now. 360 or 600 ranking points say would be helpful to get no 1.

I see the positives of it: Fed can re-fuel and start preparing for the clay season. He should do MC in my view, where there's lots of points to be gained. JMDP to do the Djokovic and the Nadal job at this Miami!

I was one who hoped Fed would go on and win here to give him a chance to make No. 1, but in retrospect I am not so sure:

* Fed has already played 25 matches in 6 tournaments this season, and there are 3 slams, 6 TMS not including MC, the Olympics, and the WTF to come - let alone Basle and Halle.

* Since 2006 he has only played more than 80 matches in a season once, that was 81 in 2008. If he ploughed on through the Miami draw at the age of 30 something might end up having to give at a more important part of the season.

* He's already won IW and increased his points tally over the two h/c tournaments as well as having added Rotterdam to this part of his season - there's no build-up to a h/c slam and Miami is a bit of a 'dead-end'

* Now he's got a choice whether to take a break or to 'warm-up' on clay by playing a few matches at MC before the RG run-up - I'd say that's a nice dilemma for him to have as there's no pressure and he can put his health first if he needs to

* When you look at it that way, as Tenez pointed out a week ago, losing early at Miami is no real worry

Agree its no big deal EXCEPT that he loses points (if he's thinking of #1)...but he can gain them again at MC if he enters (and makes the semis).

I think we shouldnt go on about the slow courts too much...lets not forget he lost to Roddick here, hardly a great slow-court player and Federer isnt exactly poor on slow courts given his clay results of past years (Hamburg anyone...just about THE slowest court on tour). This court has been like this for years now but it didnt stop Fed winning before. This was just one of those days...he wasnt 100%, Roddick played well...and Roddick has had spurts of doing well on these early N.American events in the past - on his day when he clicks he can still trouble the best....as shown.

1 - He loses peanut points.
2 - He only loses points to the race, only if Djoko beats Nadal in the final. Anything else, he actually wins points.

Exactly, if Nadal can win here it makes Fed's push for #2 (never mind #1) all the harder. If...

That said...I wouldnt say the loss of 315 pts is peanuts - its a loss he didnt expect really and putd pressure on him having to enter another tournament or improve on 2011 results. He did enter MC, Rome and Madrid last year (QF, 3R, SF) so has chances to improve that record...but of course the biggy is defending the 1200 pts at FO. That said he could risk dropping MC to push for Rome but he may have lost some momentum to others doing that.

I just wonder how much this early season phase might have taken out of him come the manic Rome/Madrid/FO/Wimb period...if he's to do well across all core events (i.e. assume he gets to SF of most) he's going to be in the 80+ match territory without Halle/Basel/non-masters in asia. Thats alot of matches for anyone, never mind a guy nearing 31...

Actually...I just looked at 2011, to be fair by this stage last year he had also played 23 matches to this years 26...not much difference really. He played 76 matches last year.

lydian wrote:Exactly, if Nadal can win here it makes Fed's push for #2 (never mind #1) all the harder. If...

That said...I wouldnt say the loss of 315 pts is peanuts - its a loss he didnt expect really and putd pressure on him having to enter another tournament or improve on 2011 results. He did enter MC, Rome and Madrid last year (QF, 3R, SF) so has chances to improve that record...but of course the biggy is defending the 1200 pts at FO. That said he could risk dropping MC to push for Rome but he may have lost some momentum to others doing that.

I just wonder how much this early season phase might have taken out of him come the manic Rome/Madrid/FO/Wimb period...if he's to do well across all core events (i.e. assume he gets to SF of most) he's going to be in the 80+ match territory without Halle/Basel/non-masters in asia. Thats alot of matches for anyone, never mind a guy nearing 31...

If Nadal wins, it's good for Fed cause his goal is to overtake Djoko, so he woudl not lose ground to the top player. It woudl just make the top 3 closer to each others.

I just wonder how much this early season phase might have taken out of him come the manic Rome/Madrid/FO/Wimb period

But you can ask the same question to Murray, Nadal and Djoko. Cause if they battle it hard here, then they will find it harder to battle it out in 2 weeks. If you had to pick one to rest, Miami woudl be the one I'd pick..considering it gives him a good break while Delpo, Murray, Djoko and Nadal have to fight against each other there and all may lose some feathers before the tough time ahead.

I agree in that I think he'll drop MC and do Shanghai...rather than the other way round last year. I think he'll feel he needs a break to push for the rest of the summer events. The tiredness caught up with him in Miami you feel.
If he drops MC, he can also see how the others fare against each other and then tweak his schedule later down the line accordingly to capitalise on any points they might drop - plus he has a better chance of winning Shanghai vs MC IMO.

Indeed. He has been pacing himself very well all his career and I think he did the right think to lose yesterday, whether meant or not. It's when tired that injuries suddenly happen.

I can;t help thinking that in his ind the loss was actually a planned one. A bit like v Benetteau in Paris a coupe of years ago. It pleases the crowd, it gives his friend a boost and retires with his family to rest....while all the tough players have 4 tough matches ahead of them.

And who says you 2 can't get along

Tenez wrote:Indeed. He has been pacing himself very well all his career and I think he did the right think to lose yesterday, whether meant or not. It's when tired that injuries suddenly happen.

I can;t help thinking that in his ind the loss was actually a planned one. A bit like v Benetteau in Paris a coupe of years ago. It pleases the crowd, it gives his friend a boost and retires with his family to rest....while all the tough players have 4 tough matches ahead of them.

A Fed fan at his best

Tennisanorak wrote:It was incredible to see Federer losing on hard courts to the same player twice in the span of a few days.

Nalbandian Paris and Madrid 2007.

I think the main goal for Fed is to win another Slam. That would also get him to #1 for at least a short while. But his chances of winning a Slam would be much better if Djokovic and Nadal were in the same half (yes, I agree Murray is a tough opponent too but he's more likely to lose early).

Miami is really a missed opportunity to get to #2 in the rankings before Roland Garros. If he'd beaten Roddick, the path to the semis was wide open (360 points), plus he would have had a chance to prevent Djokovic reaching the final. Now he needs to rely on Del Potro to do that...

noleisthebest wrote:A Fed fan at his best

No. I don;t need to find excuses. No more than Fed when he says himself he was tired (And those comments are rare from him). I just think it's a planned withdrawal. It woudl not be the first and last...in those TMSs.

Well, maybe not planned, but I don;t think he cared much about the result.

prostaff85 wrote:I think the main goal for Fed is to win another Slam. That would also get him to #1 for at least a short while. But his chances of winning a Slam would be much better if Djokovic and Nadal were in the same half (yes, I agree Murray is a tough opponent too but he's more likely to lose early).

Yes, except that what was true last year, might not be true this year. With Delpo and Murray improving, that number 2 spot might not be as important as in the past.

lol LK, we're fine away from Nadal. I suspect we've 'bottomed out' so to speak.

Anyway, in danger of further agreement breaking out I kind of agree in that Federer seemed a little casual to start with playing at 75% - maybe that was tiredness creeping in and how does he motivate himself against a guy he was 23-2 up on? As he saw the match slipping you feel he just wasnt willing to push that extra 25% needed to maybe win. If you're going to lose, then losing to Roddick is better than a confidence booster for the top 3. So kind of agree just not sure it was a pre-planned definite "loss" before the match, just that he wasnt prepared to put in more than 75% and was prepared to see what that would "buy" him...and suspect that would have been the same the next match too...he wasnt going to win this event.

This event may well be headed to another grinder between Novak and Nadal...besides the fact Nadal loses them (although I think the 100-0% trend will stop soon) I actually dont really enjoy watching them as a tennis spectacle. I like variety and the Nadal/Federer matches offer the contrast. With the top 2 you feel its a war of attrition to the last man standing...thats fine on clay in some respects but I dont want that across the tour. I'm a born and bred S&V player ("raised" on artificial grass) ...and miss the contrasting match ups. But hey, this point is done to death, the tour needs to change somehow in terms of variety. The fly in the ointment is that I wonder if speeding up say 10-20% would make much difference? i.e. maybe the top guys could still ralley all day even on glass courts given racquets/strings/fitness/movement gains....?

I take no pleasure in saying that a Fed loss was my own particular 'selection' when we were invited to predict any possible upsets ahead of yesterday's matches (there is a post from me somewhere by way of evidence...!)

Whilst I was still somewhat surprised when it actually happened, it came about pretty much in the way I felt it might : Roddick hitting a little spell of magic that has been eluding him for quite some time (hence his ranking decline) aided & abetted by Federer showing perhaps a few signs of mental wear & tear after the impressive run.

Roddick stuck to his task well, (not least holding on at 0-40 early in third, that was the turning point for me)

Don't think Fed will be overly-troubled by this : the 'streak' had in any event already lasted longer than he might realistically have hoped for, and it was always going to end at some point. Ironically I had a hunch it would end to someone outside the top 20 and in an early round. Heard a comment in his interview that Fed felt he had lost to a former World No. 1 rather than a guy ranked in 30's. Fair enough I guess.

As others have said, he might well be glad of some extra rest time ahead of clay.

For Roddick I somehow doubt this marks some sort of renaissance. He would need a lot more wins like this to get back to top 10. He will take a certain amount of confidence from such a rare victory over his nemesis, but I think we can safely say his best days are behind him. Andy has always struck me as a good guy, and although he will always feel he should have more than one Slam on his CV, he has been a very consistent performer over these past ten years or so.

lydian : I'm very much with you on the likelihood of another Novak v Rafa 'grinder.' These are, as you say, wars of attrition with little prospect of any variety or significant contrast. And (as you also say) it's a well-worn debate, but if these two end up meeting for another 2/3 years with the same frequency as they did in 2011 then I can't imagine that their last-man- standing tactics would add a whole lot of excitement to the tour overall, or bring millions of new followers to the game .....

Didn't watch the match but I was surprised and a little sad when I saw the result. 6-1 in the second set and 0-40 on Roddicks serve in the 3rd! Pffft!

Credit to Roddick for getting a rare win over Federer and I doubt it will be considered a big loss for Federer. I'm quite intrigued at the prospect of a Roddick Djokovic semi if they both get there. This could be a big test for Djokovic. Sentimental home crowd cheering for his opponant. Djokovic can get upset when he doesn't feel loved...

As for Federer entering Monte Carlo much as I'd like to see him play I'm not sure it would be a good move to change plans because of this loss. So if your reading this. Don't go Roger!

It's funny. I thought Roddick might pull off an upset a la Miami 2008 against Fed. When I visited the atp website and saw the headline I let out an anguished wail. If Federer wants to return to No. 1 he can't let important points slip. To be fair it was probably a bit too much to ask for at this stage of his career for him to win his 4th tournament in a row!

Fed: “…I know how difficult it is. Just because I'm playing well doesn't mean that the rest of the group is not.”

Fed’s loss was already foreshadowed in this unforceful statement he made in his first Miami interview. I didn’t expect him to go all the way but was surprised he didn’t at least defend the semi points.

Told you so that Djokovic would win Miami.


https://www.606v2.com/t26312-djokovic-2012-wilander-1988-mark-my-words

This loss kind of reminded me of Djokovic's loss to Isner @ Indian Wells (but @ least that was in the semis). Although with a scoreline like 6-1 to Fed in set 2, you would have thought Fed could take this match. I had thought Roddick would be the main obstacle to Fed @ Miami and was surprised Fed would have to face him so soon in the third round. In context though, in Masters 1000 series tournaments Fed has won twice or less, he has been prone to the early exits and winning the Indian Wells-Miami double isn't easy and even when done is rare. Even before Miami started Fed's chances of getting to #2 was @ best 50/50. Now with this, it's probably 80/20 against, not impossible, but mostly out of his hands. It would require Djokovic to win Monte Carlo, which I think is certainly possible (but that would only lead to Nadal losing 400 points). That would only get Fed 100 points or so closer to where he started before Miami. Fed would then require a good run @ Rome and equal where he got to @ Madrid last year.

Realistically Fed would have to do something which he has not been able to do in almost 3 years: win a clay court title to get to #2. It's not impossible but he has to pass Djokovic and Nadal back to back, while I can see him beating one of them, I can't see him beating both (two day's running too). However, Fed has won clay court titles before but winning Madrid (which is more likely of the two) is pretty difficult, Nadal has the home crowd but having said that, their matches there have been close there. Again though, even if he beats Nadal, he gets 600 closer, but Nadal doesn't lose any points (if he makes the final), Fed still needs a good run @ Rome the following week. On this basis, Fed can skip Monte Carlo and leave Nadal and Djokovic to fight it out, which I think is actually wise, Fed gets time off to prepare for a serious run @ Madrid (with a view to winning it) and let Djokovic go for the only clay court title of the 3 on the Masters 1000 circuit he is missing. I'm pretty sure Djokovic will want it seriously too, he does reside in Monte Carlo and it's the only title Nadal has never lost since 2005, so has symbolic significance. It would be the clearest statement of intent that he's planning to take Nadal on @ the French. In any case, with the clay court season, we'll see if Fed is really seeing a return to winning ways or just had a lucky run which has come to an end.

jersey wrote:Told you so that Djokovic would win Miami.


https://www.606v2.com/t26312-djokovic-2012-wilander-1988-mark-my-words

Jersey your words are marked in a diamond shell and kept in Madam Tussards.

Awww man. Roddick has just lost 7-5 6-0 to Juan Monaco!

Incrediblexman wrote:Awww man. Roddick has just lost 7-5 6-0 to Juan Monaco!

... and Roddick is younger than Federer.

laverfan wrote:

Incrediblexman wrote:Awww man. Roddick has just lost 7-5 6-0 to Juan Monaco!

... and Roddick is younger than Federer.

Indeed !

And I'm sure it won't have escaped your notice laverfan that the (slightly) younger Roddick must have played less than half as much tennis as has Federer over the last six months or so ....

bogbrush wrote:I wouldn't get too excited about Roddick, just a daft loss for Federer.

That was my thought too.

Did anyone really get excited by the Roddick win? The 23-2 H2H told us it was a blip and Roddick has been awful of late - last night he showed us why. Nothing to do with age per se, the game has simply passed him by and did a while back. His shots looked completely impotent against Monaco...almost embarrassingly so.

Guess you're right there lydian, sums it up pretty well.

In fact I doubt even Roddick himself got too excited about it either ! He put up a good fight in front of a sell-out home crowd when facing a big name and grabbed the chance while he could, very aware that there might not be many more to come. And in fairness to A-Rod, he has mostly been pretty realistic when talking about his own play in recent times.

Good memories for Roddick to have with this win.

His returning game was not up to par in the 1st and 3rd set. That said i'm happy for Roddick to atleast win a match over Fed since the 2009 Wimbledon choking.

Knew Andy was playing better than usual before it but didn't have the guts to bet on him!!