Quins vs Tigers- huge match coming up

Obviously it is still a while away, and I am getting in very early but that is because I am very excited. This is going to be a huge match. 1st vs 2nd again and a big chance for both teams to put a marker down. This is one of a few likely Final match ups, Leicester will be looking for revenge after Quins won the opposite fixture at Welford Road and Quins need to prove they beat another of the other Play-off regulars in a big, high pressure game. Both sides also got their attacking games running nicely this week and as with the recent Wembley match, there are fascinating battles all across the squads. There should be a fantastic atmosphere in a very full Stoop (the atmosphere against Wasps was great and though this isn't a derby, the importance of the match means I can see a lot of tension, but without the handbags we sometimes see in big games).

So, assuming both sides approach this match with as strong a side as possible, I foresee these match-ups being instrumental:

15- Mike Brown vs Geordan Murphy. Both classy, both have form behind them but both are in different parts of their careers with Geordan no longer needed by Ireland but in my opinion one of their better recent(ish) players, capable of all kinds of magic and an absolute legend in Leicester, a City who are undeniably good to their Club's imported players who are treated like hometown heroes if they accept the ethos they have there. Mike has been a revelation this year, a rock in defence and slick in joining the line in attack. The contest here will be close and exciting, but with Monye and one of the SS boys (unfortunate initials there...) I think Quins will be better in the back 3, with pacey pacey Chisholm providing entertaining cover too. But the giant Alesana could always prove me wrong, and Agulla is in rich form too.

Of more direct interest to England is the clash in the centres. And with Manu and JTH involved, clash is a good predictor of what might occur- there will be physicality in the midfield at the very least!

Anthony Allen, in my opinion, is highly unfortunate to have so few England caps, and his partnership with Manu should be looked at as an England pair. But so, perhaps, should JTH and Lowe (I like units). Very different approaches come from each- JTH is very physical and direct but then can offload so we can get the ball out to Lowe (still strong but faster and smaller) in more space out wide, often off a pivot. Allen is a more elusive and "skillful" attacker who uses his running to worry a defence, so that he can slickly get the ball to Manu who is like a tank but one that can hit 80 mph. Lowe is better at getting the ball to the wingers for me, and JTH and Lowe will be able, I think, to handle their opposite numbers in defence but as individual threats the Leicester pair are more dangerous and 36 on the bench is a good attacking player that can the midfield's approach too, so I have no idea how to call this.

At 10, Evans should be back apparently. Against Sarries, I thought he looked like he was getting his groove back. If he was and the rest during injury hasn't hindered it, then he is a better FH than Flood or, well, anyone in the AP. But that is far from clear and he has been off for a couple of months now. Flood is a very good 10, and will be trying to move his backs like he has been recently and pressing to take back his England shirt. Assuming Evans isn't at his best I will say that Leicester win this battle, but even if he is then Flood has an opportunity to compete with one of the NH's top FHs and show what he offers that Farrell doesn't. Partnering them is another vital contest- 2 excellent 9s when in form but both with different issues. Both Youngs and Care are chirpy but can get carried away and err towards petulance and frankly let their instincts overtake their forebrains and inevitably do something stupid. Youngs' England form is not great to say the least and Danny Care ruled himself out with what is either an alcohol or IQ issue. But Dickson, for his qualities, is not half the natural talent of either and they both offer so much running threat and energy and can have very good or very bad passing days. Both will be fired up and aware that they are not currently going to be starting for England but either has the ability to do so if they show they have the temperament to control their packs and keep their heads in big matches. They are effectively rivals for the number 2 spot now, but I envisage them as the eventual starters and I think in their hearts they both know that too. I'll say Leicester will have the edge for now, but I may change y mind drastically if our HBs look in good touch in the first 10 mins.

The Front row battle looks delicious. I noted before we played Sarries that scrummaging is now a strength not a weakness (though it has become clear that only with our best pack- anything less and we are vulnerable) and we went and proved that right. But Wasps are not great in that area and Sarries were weakened. Toulon really hurt us up front without Kohn and Leicester murdered Saracen's front row when they last played. This is the real litmus test (sorry that the article is so full of cliches) for Marler and JJ. If Marler can come out with equality or being narrowly outplayed by Castro and Cole, two genuinely World Class tighthead contenders for me, then I can see no excuses to not let him on the pitch for England. He is proving everyone who said he was an awful set-piece player wrong but it could all go jubblies-up here. And JJ, though now less penalised and better at getting his hit in, will also be truly tested against Ayerza. I think Leicester will win here and might really hurt us, but I hope we make it close. Chuter should have Buchanan, who has looked good but is still very inexperienced at this level against someone as Premiership-wise as Chuter.

In the second row we have another close-un'. Robson has looked good in the lineouts and the loose recently and Kohn is vital for our pack to function anywhere near its best. Parling looked fantastic for England in my opinion, and will have a battle against the well-rated Robson both in the air (I expect Parling to pip him, but won't be surprised if both teams' lineouts are fairly safe from the other's) and the loose (I expect Robson to take that but Parling looked lively in the 6Ns) and both will want to be on the plane to SA. On the other side of the second row, I'm not sure whether it will be Slater or Skivington or Kitchener. Either way they will have a physical contest with Kohn who won't be falsh or stand out but will add so much silently to our strength up front.

Finally my favourite skirmish- the back row. Just the thought of Robshaw vs Croft makes this match worth watching. Both leaders, both good carries and breakdown players in utterly different ways and both influential in the way their teams play. Add in Waldrom vs Easter as reasonably long-shot but still possible England 8s, and you have a classic. Salvi will have a hard time against Mo, who is just so physical it sometimes hurts to watch. With Guest or Wallace to cover and our backrow experienced at playing together and to each other's strengths, I think we will come out on top, but I expect Croft to have a good game on the Stoop in good weather.

Quins will try and contain Leicester's attacks and match them in the set-piece (no point in trying to overpower them really), then pile into the breakdown when fast ball is on and pound away. Leicester will try and crush us in the forwards then when we are tired send their strike runners flying in the backs. I'm not sure who will win but I can see 4 ties apiece and maybe even 2 BPs for the losers .

Scrum
A huge area of strength for Tigers, especially as the AP is not resplendent with good scrummaging teams. Cole and Castro keep each other honest, Ayerza is the form loosehead in the AP this season and Mulipola has been an awesome find.
Quins are improved in this area. Johnston still has technical issues when facing smaller looseheads like Ayerza. If the ref allows a contest here Tigers could be really putting pressure on Quins.

Lineout
Robson is a very good AP operator in this set-piece. Quins though suffer from a lack of options - if Guest is on the bench, none of Quins back row usually contribute too much here.
Chuter (and Youngs) have at times had difficulty timing their throw. They have been helped by the presence of some fantastic lineout options. Parling, Skivington, Crodt and Salvi are all outstanding on thei own ball while Parling and Croft especially are great at stealing opposition lineouts.

Tigers should have a clear advantage in the setpiece.


Breakdown
An interesting confrontation. When the sides last met, in the LV at the Stoop, Tigers bossed this area. None of those players will be on either side. Quins have a definite plan when defending the breakdown. As best demonstrated down in Toulouse they look as if they will "gang tackle" the ball carrier, but at the last the extra defenders stay off the tackle and get their hands on the ball. If not smashed off it any ball won by Tigers will be exceptionally slow. If support is too slow Quins will get the penalty.
Salvi is Tiger's breakdown king and has won countless turnover ball this season.


Defence
Tigers cover back very well, and they need too. They concede far too many line-breaks and Quins short passing could capitalise. 42 tries conceded bears testament to Tigers defence not being as tight as it once was.
Quins make a lot of tackles. They are very good at soaking up pressure. They are not an aggressive defence, like Sarries say, but make their tackles and get their hands on the ball.

Quins have the advantage


Tactical Kicking
Both Care and Youngs tend to overhit the box kicks. Evans has the edge over Flood, while Brown has a monster boot.

Quins advantage


Attack
Neither Quins nor Tigers have the eyecatching players with extreme pace or dazzling footwork that make pundits wet themselves. Yet they are the two leading try scorers in the competition with 48 and 63 tries repectively in 20 matches.
Quins look to play a high tempo match, constantly changing the point of attack. They can be disrupted by a physical team (see Connacht and Toulon) but if allowed to play they can be devastating. They will need to be more clinical that hey have been though as tigers will score points.

Depth
Tigers bench is looking awesome. Quins need the 1st XV to do a job as if it is close at 60 minutes tigers extra strength shoudl hold sway.


Form
Quins did not know how to lose in the first half of the season While Tigers started much slower.
In 2012 Quins have struggled more - Pl 13, W 6, D 1, L6
Since being hammered by Ulster, Tigers have won 12 matches in a row.


Head-To-Heads
One win apiece this season. Neither match is really relevant though. Buchanan is the only one of the 30 starters from the LV game likely to play this weekend. The AP fixture saw just 4 of the expected tigers XV appear (10 of Quins)



Projected Result

My head says a reasonably comfortable win for tigers. My gut says bleurghtabarble.

none of Quins back row usually contribute too much here.

Well, certainly not to the extent that Croft does but Easter is often used as an option and Robshaw is a solid jumper too

I think momentum is with Tigers now. I'll stick my neck out and say that our strength in depth and quality bench players will be the difference.
If only we could have snatched a couple of games more between Sept and Dec.

I hope and think we'll still be second this time next week

I don't read too much into the respective form of the two teams. Quins have lost this season to Toulouse, a full-strength Sarries and Saints, Connacht in awful conditions, two LV games that we clearly weren't prioritising, and a Toulon game that with hindsight we didn't target.

It seems very clear to me that Conor is targeting games very carefully. Going into 2012 with a decent points cushion, I think he has been protecting his players ahead of going outright for the win. I don't think we will know what shape Quins are really in until next week.

On balance, I think Leicester probably have the edge on paper. They have more squad depth, and a stronger setpiece. And yet... Marler has been transformed by his time with Rowntree, and referees are beginning to understand what JJ can (legitimately) do to a loosehead. Robson and Kohn provide a very good balance, and our back row is as good as any around.

Leicester are, well, Leicester. The starting XV will contain, at a guess, 11 internationals, with a few more on the bench for good measure. They will make trouble and they will, even against the Quins defence, score tries. However, their own defence is still pretty porous, especially by Leicester standards.

I think a lot will depend on the ref. If he allows hands on the floor and flopping over the ball at the breakdown, then Quins will struggle. If Quins are allowed quick ball, I suspect they will hit Leicester at full intensity and may find enough holes in the defence to see them home. But they will need to be totally committed and clinical to do it.

Poorfour wrote:I think a lot will depend on the ref. If he allows hands on the floor and flopping over the ball at the breakdown, then Tigers will struggle. If Tigers are allowed quick ball, I suspect they will hit Quins at full intensity and may find enough holes in the defence to see them home. But they will need to be totally committed and clinical to do it.

Fixed the typos in that quote for you

Tigers will win, although probably not with a TBP.

Note, all ye of little faith, they demolished Saints at FG, and the Stoop is less intimidating if anything. Tigers are too strong up front and have the backs to at least gain parity with Quins.

Equo Troiano wrote:Tigers will win, although probably not with a TBP.

Note, all ye of little faith, they demolished Saints at FG, and the Stoop is less intimidating if anything. Tigers are too strong up front and have the backs to at least gain parity with Quins.

Always a worry when I agree with you

Except I believe that a TBP is definitely possible.

Please note though that while I actually believe that Tigers are stronger up front AND in the backs, come the official Round 21 thread I shall be predicting a Quins win.

LondonTiger wrote:

Equo Troiano wrote:Tigers will win, although probably not with a TBP.

Note, all ye of little faith, they demolished Saints at FG, and the Stoop is less intimidating if anything. Tigers are too strong up front and have the backs to at least gain parity with Quins.

Always a worry when I agree with you

Except I believe that a TBP is definitely possible.

Please note though that while I actually believe that Tigers are stronger up front AND in the backs, come the official Round 21 thread I shall be predicting a Quins win.

So you predict that Saints, a team in something of disarray will turn over Tigers at FG but then predict Tigers will win at the Stoop, home of the top team in the league with a TBP

For what its worth I think they'll take 4 points from a win at the Stoop and 5 points from a home fixture with Bath. Tigers still look good to finish a strong second and could quite possibly top the league come the end of the regular season.

No, I thought tigers were better than Saints in almost every position, but predicted a Saints win.

I think Tigers are better in most areas than Quins, but will again predict a Quins win.

(PS i think Saints would beat Quins more times than they would lose)

Come Bath, Tigers shoudl win by lots - I will refuse to make a prediction.

Oh,

I also predicted Saints would beat Tigers in LV final.
Bath would beat Tigers in LV semi.

Last time I predicted a tigers win was the match v Exeter at Sandy Park.

Sounds like you are overly pessimistic to me. Needlessly so, Marvin The Paranoid Android springs to mind.

Superstitious more like - overly so.

I think we have a pretty good idea of where Tigers are at the moment. They've had to focus on winning every match since RWC to get to where they are now, and I don't think there's been much game-playing by Cockers in terms of selection and preparation. I think that, largely, what you see is what you get. They are in great form, have a potent pack and attack, their defence has a few holes, they have strength in depth.

History says Tigers will win. As to what will actually happen, I don't know - but I think it will probably be the best indicator we'll get of how the season will play out. Saracens are vulnerable without Saull and Burger, Saints are suffering without Hartley, Clark and Wood, Exeter are doing brilliantly but I think they are a season and a couple of players away from being ready to win the really big games. A Tigers - Quins final looks like very possible (I won't say it's likely - still too many permutations for that!), and I think both teams will be looking to show what they can do.

But the point I've been trying to make is that we don't actually know very much about what state Quins are in. I genuinely believe that Conor O'Shea is carefully marshalling his (much more limited) resources game by game, and that the only one they've really gone all out to win since Christmas was the game against Sarries. I expect him to put out the strongest possible side against Tigers and to have prepared them for an intense battle in which they'll have to be totally clinical to win. I think this game will be a real pointer to whether Quins are ready to join the big league, or Gloucester in disguise.

Poorfour wrote:I think we have a pretty good idea of where Tigers are at the moment. They've had to focus on winning every match since RWC to get to where they are now, and I don't think there's been much game-playing by Cockers in terms of selection and preparation. I think that, largely, what you see is what you get. They are in great form, have a potent pack and attack, their defence has a few holes, they have strength in depth.

History says Tigers will win. As to what will actually happen, I don't know - but I think it will probably be the best indicator we'll get of how the season will play out. Saracens are vulnerable without Saull and Burger, Saints are suffering without Hartley, Clark and Wood, Exeter are doing brilliantly but I think they are a season and a couple of players away from being ready to win the really big games. A Tigers - Quins final looks like very possible (I won't say it's likely - still too many permutations for that!), and I think both teams will be looking to show what they can do.

But the point I've been trying to make is that we don't actually know very much about what state Quins are in. I genuinely believe that Conor O'Shea is carefully marshalling his (much more limited) resources game by game, and that the only one they've really gone all out to win since Christmas was the game against Sarries. I expect him to put out the strongest possible side against Tigers and to have prepared them for an intense battle in which they'll have to be totally clinical to win. I think this game will be a real pointer to whether Quins are ready to join the big league, or Gloucester in disguise.

No team is that bad...

Maybe not - but Bath would love to be that good.

Apparently the referee's Wayne Barnes.

There goes any chance of a Quins victory :/

You just HAVE to role away in the tackle faster than everyone is used to. Barnes is one of the refs strictly enforcing the IRB directive. Even it happening by 'accident' isn't allowed. Neither team have any excuse for not reacting to the change a few weeks ago.

If we lose because we stop slowing down at the breakdown because Barnes is in charge and the Tigers are too strong up front and get possession out to Manu and Murphy in the backs, that's fine. We have to accept that we aren't superstars, we work hard and can beat anyone but a club like Leicester is so strong and knows how to win so naturally that a defeat is acceptable.

If we lose because we don't adapt to Barnes and get pinged every 10 seconds then I will be ****ing livid

I'm sorry to report to Tigers' fans that they will only take 9 points from the last two matches, with only 4 coming from the Stoop.

I just do not believe that Quins can match Tigers up front and that will be key to a Tigers win.

Didn't Barnes ref this match this time last year when Ayerza and Marler got carded for fighting?

Didn't Barnes ref this match this time last year when Ayerza and Marler got carded for fighting?

Yeah, I think so. That wasn't a great performance with him messing around a lot with the Quins scrum going backwards on the their try line resulting in two YCs when we could have had five minutes more rugby had he just binned a prop and given the penalty try earlier (like any other ref). The brawl also sprang up because he refused to try and control the players on the pitch ignoring Marler yanking away at Ayerza head guard and two successive rucks and then Ayerza's head butts, only intervening when Marler was swinging and the assistant ref started chirping up.

Let's hope for less contreversey this time round. Quins tactics against Sarries at the breakdown might cause them issues if the replicate them against Tigers. Especially with a ref as whistle happy as Barnes. On the upside for Quins any perceived benefit for Tigers in the scrums will be negated by Barnes who doesn't care what goes on as long as the ball pops out.

Reasonably good article by Shawn Edwards in the often irritating but occasionally rewarding Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/apr/19/leicester-harlequins-grand-final

Leicester Tigers (v Harlequins, The Twickenham Stoop, Saturday 3.15pm)
15 Geordan Murphy (c)
14 Horacio Agulla
13 Manusamoa Tuilagi
12 Anthony Allen
11 Alesana Tuilagi
10 Toby Flood
9 Ben Youngs
1 Marcos Ayerza
2 George Chuter
3 Dan Cole
4 George Skivington
5 Geoff Parling
6 Tom Croft
7 Julian Salvi
8 Thomas Waldrom

Replacements
16 Tom Youngs
17 Logovi'i Mulipola
18 Martin Castrogiovanni
19 Graham Kitchener
20 Steve Mafi
21 Sam Harrison
22 Billy Twelvetrees
23 Scott Hamilton

Fly-half Nick Evans returns at fly-half for Harlequins. The starting pack remains unchanged from last week's victory over London Wasps.

Harlequins:
15 Mike Brown
14 Ugo Monye
13 George Lowe
12 Jordan Turner-Hall
11 Sam Smith
10 Nick Evans
9 Danny Care
1 Joe Marler
2 Rob Buchanan
3 James Johnston
4 Olly Kohn
5 George Robson
6 Maurie Fa'asavalu
7 Chris Robshaw (C)
8 Nick Easter

Replacements
16 Aston Croall
17 Mark Lambert
18 Will Collier
19 Tomas Vallejos
20 Tom Guest
21 Karl Dickson
22 Rory Clegg
23 Ross Chisholm

Yet again Cole gets the nod over Castro.

Kitchener in on the bench instead of Newby gives a clear indication that tigers aim to win the game up front.

Powefull bench for Tigers - especially in the pack.

I think the Kitchener decision is actually a nod towards Tigers perceiving the Quins lineout to be more of an irritation than the breakdown. If they felt Quins were likely to cause hassle at the breakdown then Newby's experience and ability at the ruck would have been more useful than Kitchener's weight to the tight exchanges and his jumping ability at the lineout.

Good to see Cole holding onto the shirt as he is on form at the minute, hope Croft and Salvi have been told to get in Evans face early. If he's not fully fit then a big hit (and I mean legal ones) will knock him out of his stride.

Should be a good 'un.

Both sides taking it deadly seriously, then. Should be a titanic clash.

Quins are fielding the absolute best side they can at the moment - only Joe Gray / Chris Brooker missing (both injured). Very encouraging to see Olly Kohn in there; the pack goes much better when he's adding his weight to the scrum.

That Tigers bench is scary up front, though I think Quins just about have parity from 20 onwards.

Lots was said in the run up to last week's game that it was going to be a titanic clash, loads of niggle, revenge win for Saints etc. Tigers went there and bulldozed them, and frankly, I think they'll do the same to Quins.

No hype required...

Personal opinion - but if I were Cockerill the only Quins player I would take to clearly strengthen our team would be Robshaw - and then at 7 only just.

If I was managing Quins I would want to take Manu, front 5 and Croft and 16-20

As a lone Tiger in a sea of Quins, this is always a particularly important encounter. Forget Leagues and Cups and Place in Semis, this is about bragging rights. Tigers I think slight favourites, but Quins have done us over enough times that the the edge is on paper and slight and certainly not something that will be affecting the players. Don't think I'll get to this one - long sold out - but I've seen enough of them over the years to be sure this will be a fantastic game.

You could pick a pretty good England side out of these two...

That may be true of individual players (though I'll Lowe thank you- rather have Allen or 36 than Manu, plus I'll disagree on several others such as Croft over Mo) but the basis of Quins' success this season has been on the team playing better than the 15 individuals that comprises it. We know we are short on star players and the only real one we have was out of form before injury but we rely on good work as a team not stand out players. Not saying that tigers don' have excellent teamwork but taking Quins as a set of individuals is dangerous

Cowshot wrote:As a lone Tiger in a sea of Quins, this is always a particularly important encounter. Forget Leagues and Cups and Place in Semis, this is about bragging rights. Tigers I think slight favourites, but Quins have done us over enough times that the the edge is on paper and slight and certainly not something that will be affecting the players. Don't think I'll get to this one - long sold out - but I've seen enough of them over the years to be sure this will be a fantastic game.

You could pick a pretty good England side out of these two...

Brown
Smith
Manu
Allen
Monye
Flood
Youngs

Cole
Chuter
Marler
Parling
Robson
Croft
Robshaw
Easter

Plus the likes of JTH/Lowe, 36, Care, Slater, Young on the bench...

Yep, pretty good England team!

Although i've said Tigers will win elsewere for some reason I feel an upset could be on the cards...

If we can contain their scrum and not give silly pens then we have a very good chance of winning, we need to take all of our chances though, just like we did away at WR.

It all depends on the breakdown and handling. If Tigers can slow things down, they'll almost certainly win. If Quins hit it with the intensity of the Sarries game, they will create opportunities and then it will be down to their defence to hang on against the Leicester onslaught. (Sounds like a basketball team...)

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/aviva-premiership/harlequins-v-leicester/winner

Tigers are odds on with the bookies. I hadn't expected that.

We still need another TBP though.

Quins looked off the boil a couple of months ago, but they're continuing an impressive up in their physicality that's been on display for the last few AP games.

How's it going, tigers doing as bad as the scoreline digests?

Quins edging it slightly......

23-10

Didn't appreciate the sight of Ayerza waving the imaginary card there...

Flood knocks another one over as Yellow card time ends. tigers back to 15. And 13 on the scoreboard.

Thank Evans for little Nick. He responds with three for Quins.

26-13

Looks like it is going to be 26-23 at HT, what a game!

Mafi strolls over under the posts.

26-20.

Straight through the centre there Wayne. Bad call

And Flood knocks over another penalty to make it 26-23.

Quins are abysmal giving up that lead. Tigers never say die do they?

Really annoying that. Watched from 15 mins and until the last 5 mins Tigers had absolutely nothing. Can't let them get momentum like that

Good to see Wayne " tigers" Barnes doing his best to help his side win the title. Abysmal refereeing just hope that quins can still win and deny a bonus point to the tigers

Knackeredknees wrote:Good to see Wayne " tigers" Barnes doing his best to help his side win the title. Abysmal refereeing just hope that quins can still win and deny a bonus point to the tigers

Not watching but is he really being that one sided? Or you just being biased?

He's not been that bad except he's missed a couple of offsides by Tigers and the call that made Tiger's last penalty was just wrong. He's probably made decisions in Quins' favour that I've not noticed in my bias

nathan wrote:

Knackeredknees wrote:Good to see Wayne " tigers" Barnes doing his best to help his side win the title. Abysmal refereeing just hope that quins can still win and deny a bonus point to the tigers

Not watching but is he really being that one sided? Or you just being biased?

A netrual in this game but there have been a few strange ones in your favour, the last pen was wrong and then adding 10m for backchat, but ignoring flood boot the ball well after a pen given, and some strange calls on holding on the floor going your way