Nadal 2012 vs 2011

Ok...a few thoughts/stats about Nadal 2011 vs 2012...

2011 up to now W:L = 26:4 (ATP points 2,650 + Barca)
2012 up to now W:L = 26:3 (ATP points 2,830 + Barca)

2011 results to now...SQFFW (only won MC and now final @ Barca)
2012 results to now...SFSSW (only won MC and now final @ Barca)

Ok...all looks remarkably similar on the face of things and Rafa seems to have got the wind in his sails again on his favourite clay. But...then again he looked to be similar on clay at this point last year too - only to go on and lose to Djokovic at Madrid and Rome.

Question is, do you see him fairing differently this year in Madrid and Rome? Do you see him winning both, or will he and Nole, say, share 1 apiece?
Is there anything different about Nadal this year? Some might say his serve has more bite (lead on the racquet tip and better serving action), he's got his head around how to play Nole better (more serving to FH and less ccBHs to Nole's BH to stop being exposed DTL) and of course he had a win against him a week ago (even though we know Nole was grieving during the event)...something he hadnt done last year. Has Nole dropped off his level of 2012?

I'm going to stick my neck out (...ish) and predict that if he wins Madrid he'll win Rome too. If he loses Madrid, I still fancy he'll win Rome (slightly slower than Madrid). Just cant see him losing both this year somehow...something feels different than last year even though the stats/results are similar and alot may hinge around the look of renewed hunger in Nadal's eyes and as others have remarked "Team Nadal" is a much calmer/cohesive place than 2011 too --- 7-0 from Djokovic saw to an abrupt halt to the in-fighting!

Mhmm, did not realize how close his year has so far looked to 2011. I tend to agree, I also think he will win at least one of the two. However, in my mind it has at least as much to do with Nole as with Rafa. I think, as always, Rafa has a good chance to get through anyone other than Nole, and Nole just does not look as sharp (or hungry?) as last year so I doubt he will win both.

lydian

I think you may have missed out the most important stat. This year he won Monte Carlo by beating Djokovic 6-3 6-1.

He has also been hitting more like the pre 2011 Nadal. I had sort of forgotton what the pre 2011 Nadal looked like until I saw him back. Standing in the centre of the court, hitting forehands left and right whilst his victim... sorry I mean opponant scampers to stay in the point.

His serve is also better. In 2011 his serve was dire particularly against Djokovic. Maybe it was confidence or maybe it was Uncle Toni constantly telling him how much better Djokovic is...

I love how many Nadal fans have made up this mythical 2011 slump of form. Nadal won a higher percentage of matches against the top ten in 2011 if you took out his losses to Novak than he averaged over the course of his career. And he played in 7 of the first 8 finals. I haven't seen anything superior or particularly different about Rafa this year as opposed to last. Hawkeye the win over Djokovic means little, unless Nadal expects that level of performance in every matchup, then I think he will be sadly dissappointed.

The reason you haven´t seen any difference Socal is because you are a Djokovic fan.. and you assume that all Nadal fans are wishful thinking.. I for one am pretty realistic in my views about what my expectations are of Rafa this year..and I assure you that there most definitely is a difference in Rafa from 2011.. He is more focussed and agressive...whether that be enough for him to achieve what I would like to see Madrid, Rome and R.G remains to be seen. But be assured Socal your boy will find a different Rafa facing him across the net 2012.. there will be some disappointment you are right.. but it wont all be Rafa´s

Haddie contrary to popular opinion I never thought Novak would always beat Nadal or that Novak could expect domination of the extent he has in their rivalry. I do believe that Novak will still boss the rivalry regardless of the surface, but there will be days were Nadal will be better and will get his wins in here and there. He is too good of a player not win some battles, but I am fairly confident Novak will win a significant majority of their battles.

Haddie, I haven't really seen Nadal playing at a higher level as opposed to last year. Novak isn't at his last year level but he still has a slam and masters. Nadal played great last year as well especially in the first half of the season after AO. I don't see a new or improved or different version of the one we have seen in years past.

I agree with Socal and Summerblues.

Rafa is playing the same game that he played in 2011. I don't see any significant difference. The only difference is that Novak is nolonger on the rampage. However, going forward, Rafa may have more confidence following the MC victory; this in turn may boost his results.

The question for Novak was always whether he would be able to sustain his form from the early part of last year. I think he is still doing incredibly well, but clearly his level has dropped a tiny notch. This has been evident, imo, since the loss to Federer at the FO. At this level, a 1-2% drop in form or confidence can make all the difference.

In my mind Rafa is the favourite for RG and out of the top three Novak is still the weakest on grass. I would favour both Rafa and Roger (even though his grass return game has deteriorated considerably since 2006, if he can maintain the resurgence he's shown in the last 6 months) against Novak on grass. I believe Novak won W last year because of the incredible momentum and confidence he had garnered by that stage of the season - it was enough to carry him through, and of course by that stage he had an opponent (Rafa) in the final who was battling a number of demons vis-a-vis his self-belief against Novak.

Ultimately, the next few tournies will be crucial in this fight for the top spot and the slam glories. Novak needs to re-establish himself as the top dog. He must win one of the next two masters tournaments.



emancipator

Socal I think I mentioned to you the other day..( as a close observer of Rafa.). what I notice and most of his fans have noticed... tennis wise yes you may not actually see any difference in his game.. but there is the 2010 level of confidence back, the aggression is back, the will to win is back... now as I say whether that is enough to win his matches against Nole remains to be seen.. but lets not forget that tennis isnt all about the tennis skill its often one or lost in the mental area of the game.. and I still believe that this is where Rafa has and may still have the edge-.But heh Socal its going to be interesting to find out .There will be some good matches to come and whatever even if you are right... keep on your toes Nole !!!!

Good stuff emancipator

I agree 100% that Rafa remains (clear) favourite at RG. In fact, for me, on the back of MC and his practice-session wins en route to the Barcelona Final, he's favourite to clean up for the rest of the clay season.

Quite how things might pan out beyond RG is much more open to speculation and uncertainty. (IMHO !)

I've banged on about this before and will do again : I really, really want some new blood to break through - in a big way. To provide fresh challenges to the existing hierarchy, and for the good of the sport as a whole. Same four names at the top now for around four years or so. Just how much longer I wonder ......

The AO 2012 final was revealing, there were times when Nadal was on top, and times when Djokovic was top. The biggest difference was in how Nadal changed tactically during the match and I think he can learn from it. Roland Garros should favour Nadal over Djokovic compared to the AO.

PS I still partly "blame" Nadal for Djokovic's run. Nadal went "crazy" playing through a fever in Qatar - I assume it was due to the big bucks being paid but he is also a bit crazy in pushing himself. Well eventually he got injured playing the AO and failed to make it to the AO final. Djokovic on the other hand by winning that slam (especially after such an "easy" final), had a huge boost in his confidence, which he kept going (his belief) for the remainder of the season.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/06/us-tennis-doha-idUSTRE70557320110106

I cant argue with that Nore Stat but I get somewhat tired of those who accuse Nadal fans of making excuses for him... it was his own damned fault but the affects of that were as you rightly pointed out .. he went on a slippery slope.
So I repeat what I said earlier to Socal .. for whatever the reason his confidence and his mojo is back.Though I wont put my neck out by saying he will now beat the No.1. as he did before.. I will say I dont think Djoko will find it easy either

I dont agree with some above that he's the same player as last year.
Here's a few technical stab points, subtler in some areas than others, that I feel are better than last year:

+ harder hit cc-BH
+ better DTL BH
+ controlling baseline better
+ harder and more aggressive serving
+ better cc-FH and use of angle
+ harder FH (I believe he's hitting the ball alot harder than 2011 - could be various reasons for this)
+ much fewer mid-court balls hit (this hurt him big time against Novak in 2011)
+ playing with more variety
+ better mental focus (believe Team Nadal is more harmonious than 2011)
+ better confidence (seems to be at ease with himself again, was mentally at sea in 2011 I felt despite good results)

Now I'm not saying the above are leagues above the same factors last year but some really stand out for me...and result in a much stronger and focused player who increasingly has weapons in almost every department not just THAT forehand. Where I do agree with socal is that this doesnt mean he's going to be beating Djokovic every time now - Djokovic's game is a bad match-up for Nadal. That said, I cant hazard to guess the long-term ratio of W:L between them both at the moment until we see them play 2-3 times more.

Lydian I don't know about nadal playing with more confidence at Monte Carlo he served better than he did overrall in 2011 but Djokovic was so far off song that I really find it hard to get much of a gauge of their respective levels off of this match. You say that Nadal is hitting his forehand harder, I don't know, I have noticed he is standing up in the court more on hardcourts. But I don't see much drastically different in his game in 2012 than 2011, not really much different at all. i mean both Nadal and Djokovic are guys who continually work on their game and try to improve technically but I haven't seen a big evolution from either player game or confidence wise from 2011 or 2012. Novak is off I suppose because he hasn't won every match, and Nadal its hard to say that I a have seen marked improvement. Lets remember he again this year went from RG to Monte Carlo without winning a title, if anything I personally feel like Nadal played better at the start of 2011 than he has in the start of 2012.

I don't know if I can agree with Emancipator that Novak is still the third best player in the world on grass or that I would favor Nadal over Novak at RG. Haddie, I don't know if Nadal is more confident or just different than 2011. I have always maintained Nadal will get his wins he is too good not to. I just don't see this one match or tournament as being indicative of a new Nadal brimming with confidence and improved game. I mean would we say that 2 weeks ago when Nadal hadn't won a tournament since RG. All I am saying is lets count the chickens when they hatch. Because I haven't seen some sort of spectacular turnaround. Novak is down from 2011 form but he is still the best in the world he just won miami without dropping a set. I don't know if there is a lot of support for the conclusions people are drawing from one tournament ideally situated for Nadal.

I'm not ascribing huge gains from the 2 event wins per se....he just seems to be hitting the actual ball alot better to me for reasons listed. Sure against Nole some of these may break down...we'll have to see...but his serve is definitely better and he was playing some different ralley approaches vs Novak (albeit Novak wasnt there in the 2nd set). And because its only 2 events any gains may be brittle...but for now there is an increased vigour and penetration to his game right now for me vs 12 mths ago. Either way...his confidence vs Novak will be higher next time - and at this level confidence and calmness in the big points are key. So we await the next time! After 7-0 it makes the situation interesting again...and thats a plus for tennis as a whole...after-all rivalries need give and take in the H2Hs or else they're not rivalries!

Simple for me: Nadal is playing the crunch points far better this year compared to last. In several matches this year i have seen Nadal react well when facing a BP or in fact what holding BP. This was a trait of his career for me until last year when just as often as not he would make an error or play a lacklustre point during a big moment. Nole on the other hand this year has not always shown that inner belief during the big moments

Completely agree Tom. Case in point is that match against Dodig at Canada Masters last year...he was cruising at 6-1 3-1 and then got tight at key moments...lost the 2nd set 7-6, then went up 5-3 in 3rd and served for match, got tight again and lost the 3rd 7-6 too...a shocking defeat to a relative journeyman player. There is no way the pre-2011 Nadal would have lost a match like that in such a way...his mind was very brittle last year. We saw it in the outbursts at the FO during interviews and numerous other occasions. He seems completely different this year and particularly the past fortnight. For Novak, he has the challenge of now being the hunted player, the one everyone seeks to topple, we'll see how he handles the pressure as he moves into 2 events he has to defend.

Nadal playing more aggressive this year than 2011, indeed he is making more unforced errors compared to last year to play aggressive.

A win against Djoko also came at the right time, Djoko is a bit mentally saturated, being at the top is energy sapping, and Djoko is realizing that.

I somehow don't think neither Djoko nor Rafa gonna win the FO this year. Madrid and Rome could be shared between the two , what kind of Federer will turn up for Madrid would be interesting.

I would love to see Murray,Del Potro, John Isner, Raonic, Ferrer and Tsonga's performance in the upcoming clay masters, they might coz some serious upsets

Invisible bank on either Nadal or Djokovic winning the french open. That is a sure bet. For one thing everyone talks about this waning confidence in Novak and this better game or more confidence from Nadal as opposed to 2011, I really don't see much. Lets look at the points race so far in 2012 Nadal is about even with Federer since Fed didn't play in Monte Carlo. How is that better than reaching 7 out of 8 finals in 2011. If anything I don't think Nadal is playing better than 2011. It is a case of Novak coming off a little from trying to win every match. This year in particular with the olympics I think we are going to see the best from Djokovic and the most fight to win at the olympics and the slams. And for all this talk about a more confident Nadal and slipping Djokovic, novak has a huge lead both in year by year points race and the 52 week ranking.

If anything I would be worried how the B version of Djokovic that everyone claims has been showing up managed to even get to the final of masters on his second favorite surface way off his game. Or how this more vulnerable Djokovic still has the most points earned in 2012. I think people are perceiving and reading way too much into this one tournament. And also are reading too much into a couple of early losses for Djokovic.

socal1976 wrote:Invisible bank on either Nadal or Djokovic winning the french open. That is a sure bet. For one thing everyone talks about this waning confidence in Novak and this better game or more confidence from Nadal as opposed to 2011, I really don't see much. Lets look at the points race so far in 2012 Nadal is about even with Federer since Fed didn't play in Monte Carlo. How is that better than reaching 7 out of 8 finals in 2011. If anything I don't think Nadal is playing better than 2011. It is a case of Novak coming off a little from trying to win every match. This year in particular with the olympics I think we are going to see the best from Djokovic and the most fight to win at the olympics and the slams. And for all this talk about a more confident Nadal and slipping Djokovic, novak has a huge lead both in year by year points race and the 52 week ranking.

If anything I would be worried how the B version of Djokovic that everyone claims has been showing up managed to even get to the final of masters on his second favorite surface way off his game. Or how this more vulnerable Djokovic still has the most points earned in 2012. I think people are perceiving and reading way too much into this one tournament. And also are reading too much into a couple of early losses for Djokovic.

Socal I have read this same response from you on every thread about the Monte-Carlo final and Rafa´s performance then and since... I understand as a fan of Novak that you are trying desperately to convince yourself and us that you are right and the rest of us are wrong in our opinion that Rafa has gained in confidence since 2011. I for one have not necessarily said that Djokovic is slipping but you cant ignore the fact that Nadal has gained enormous confidence since that win (whether you think in justifiable or not is not in question).. Its not what you think but what he thinks.

Quote from an article I have just been reading





Current Streak


Nadal is currently on a 21-match winning streak on clay. His last loss was to Novak Djokovic last year in Rome. Djokovic didn't play this week in Barcelona, but you have to think he'll be waiting for Nadal at Madrid, back in Rome and in Paris to try and put an end to Nadal's streak.


The problem most players face when playing Nadal on clay is he is so confident on the surface. That, and the fact that Nadal is peaking right now, means that any player who thinks he can beat Nadal on clay will have to play "perfect" tennis.


"I played at a very high level to win in Monte-Carlo and now Barcelona without losing a set, but I've been playing at a high level from the beginning of the year starting in Australia," Nadal added.



Now that is his present mind-set you are entitled not to agree but as I said on one of my previous responses to you I believe, for what it is worth, that Novak will be facing a much more confident Rafa across the net .. whether that results in a Rafa win or no I am not going to put my neck on the line and say... but Novak will be tested whatever I put money on it.
My last note.. my husband doesn´t watch much tennis ... he will occasionally watch Rafa ´s matches (in part) to see " how is he getting on ???" .. his words on Sunday were "what a difference to the Rafa I was watching in 2011" quote unquote.

Haddie-nuff

Exactly! If and when they next meet the Nadal that Djokovic will face will be different to the one he beat 7 times in a row. Djokovic may be able to dismiss the loss himself. In fact that's what Djokovic should do... but even if he is able to do this he won't be able to remove the confidence from Nadal.

I wonder if Nadal now had a chance to put that backhand away in the 5th set at the AO if things would have turned out different?

hawkeye

Yes I agree ... Novak´s loss in MC will always be a debateable subject .. the circumstances that surrounded it from Novak´s point of view cannot be ignored... However.. I am of the opinion that even had it not been the case the outcome of that match would have been very different from the 7 other occasions that went before it.

Well lets see what happens, I have never doubted that Nadal wouldn't get a boost in the confidence from this win. I am sure that he will. I still believe you guys are underestimating the problems Nadal has in his matchup against Djokovic. That being said I am also quite certain that Nadal will be tougher at Madrid and Rome than he was last year. But that still doesn't change my position that based on form the last 15 months I would take Novak as the favorite over Nadal on any surface until proven otherwise by more than one loss.

Well Socal I think we can safely say we will always differ simply because we are on the opposite sides of the net... "on any surface" socal is a tall order .. that makes it seriously sound like Novak owns him.. and that is really putting your neck on the line..
As you say we will see as will many of the pundits. See you in Madrid