The price of not finishing 4th

If Chelsea were to lose out on Champions League football to either Tottenham or Newcastle just what are the implications for next year? Is it a case of literally Champion League winners or bust?

From the sidelines it looks like two clubs fighting it out for the main domestic cup trophy are more than likely both to be playing in the Europa Cup next season. Now Liverpool can try and claim that this compensates for a poor season in the league but just how much is it going to cost Chelsea if they fail to make the Champions League?

Looking at the bigger picture City will go from strength to strength given the fact that they seemingly need to probably add only one or two players as necessary; Utd. have a real problem it terms of an aging squad and whether or not some of the older players really have the legs for another campaign; Arsenal have bounced back from a disastrous early campaign and provided they keep van Persie could even provide the main threat to City's title challenge next year; Tottenham now have the stability of knowing Redknapp's staying and will surely be a major threat again next year and, as for Newcastle (OK I'm a little biased here) even if we don't make the Champions League this time round if we can hold on to most of our players another chance to make the top 4 is surely on the cards.

That leaves Chelsea needing to rebuild with either Di Matteo or a new manager which will be much easier if the Champions League is on offer. if it isn't then a tough campaign to reclaim a top 4 spot could await. And as for Liverpool well Dalglish needs to work some miracles if they are going to be a top 4 contender next time round with the cups competitions again perhaps needed as an excuse (can't believe that'll go down well at Anfield or in Boston).

So if Chelsea were to lose in Munich my question is how much of a problem would that make for their top 4 challenge next season? Whether they like it or not they would probably (on recent evidence) again be one of three clubs trying to vie for the 4th spot. Personally I think it's great that there's another team in the mix especially since it's Newcastle. OK we could potentially be a one season wonder but it'll be something if this is just the beginning of a genuine North East threat to the usual suspects in Manchester and down south.

Meant to be £20m-£80m depending on how far you get in the Champs....

Chelsea's players have been too lazy in the league it's like theyve been told to not use much energy in the league and focus on the FAC and the UCL..

Spurs revenue is set to drop by about 15m net this year due to dropping from the CL to EL.

Their commercial revenue has increased slightly so broadcasting and commercial revenues will have decreased by around 20m in total which is a result of no CL.

It should have big ramifications for a club like Chelsea due to FFP considering they make operating losses each year - that is of course if it is enforced properly - although I'm hearing a lot about loopholes and legal challenges so who knows.

No champions league football for Chelsea will see a massive overhaul of the club. Financially it will be a big hit along with the new financial regulations being implemented it could prove a difficult period for Chelsea, however I'm sure Abramovich will bail them out.

Now that people are over the hype of chelsea beating barcelona and now they've stopped jiz*ing over Di Matteo, the picture is much clearer. As I've always said the rise of chelsea under Di Matteo was always going to come down as quick as it had risen and prioritising the F.A Cup over a top 4 finish is poor management. You cannot afford to rest players in this league and two nights in a row Fulham and then Newcastle showed why. Can't see Chelsea beating Bayern away from home with key players missing.

Chelsea will throw money at rebuilding and will see the big earners replaced such as Drogba & Lampard. You can already see the direction there going in with these two wingers De Bruyne & Marin (similar to the Robben & Duff combination), however to say there at that level is to be seen . Newcastle have had a sensational season but if they were to miss out on a top 4, it will be difficult seeing them keep Tiote. They will need funds to build a squad capable of challenging in the europa league and the league so selling a top player is inevitable. I don't want to say we are a one hit wonder but it must be feared, especially as Liverpool and others will only improve.

I don't want to say we are a one hit wonder but it must be feared, especially as Liverpool and others will only improve.

If you only lose 1 key player (except Cisse) then Newcastle will still be a top 5/6 team next year. They can replace the other except for Cisse.

Liverpool will have to stick with 35 million Carroll, 20 million Downing etc and that will keep them held back..

Looking at the bigger picture City will go from strength to strength given the fact that they seemingly need to probably add only one or two players as necessary; Utd. have a real problem it terms of an aging squad and whether or not some of the older players really have the legs for another campaign; Arsenal have bounced back from a disastrous early campaign and provided they keep van Persie could even provide the main threat to City's title challenge next year; Tottenham now have the stability of knowing Redknapp's staying and will surely be a major threat again next year and, as for Newcastle (OK I'm a little biased here) even if we don't make the Champions League this time round if we can hold on to most of our players another chance to make the top 4 is surely on the cards.
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I agree with the Man City part and especially if they win the league but the rest is rubbish.

De Gea, Smalling, Jones, Nani, Valencia, Cleverly, Young, Rooney, Hernandez, Wellbeck are hardly old you need a mix of youth and experienced players. Arsenal are you kidding me the same team who bottled it for the passed 7 years. Arsenal were out of the title race in September so had no pressure to win, look at them now a bit of pressure and they don't look so hot. If you blame the England thing on the collapcse of Spurs then they don't deserve to be finishing in the 4 let alone the title. Now Newcastle are having thier best season in years while Chelsea and Liverpool (Made it to two cup finals) are having a disartous season, now imagine if they hit just a little form they would be miles ahead of Newcastle.

now imagine if they hit just a little form they would be miles ahead of Newcastle.

Liverpool and Chelsea's midfield will never "hit form" they are playing at their usual level and doing very poor like always. Newcastle are just a better league team than both nowadays.

I'm interested in just what this FFP means over the next couple of seasons to clubs like Chelsea. It's a weighty document no doubt poured over by all the big clubs and their lawyers looking for loop holes and exemptions.

If it really means balancing your books over a period of time and penalties being handed out like yellow and red cards then how deep your pockets are might not be the best way forward.

It doesn't (to this layman anyway) seem clear when these rules take effect. There seems to be a bedding in period to allow clubs to reduce their levels of debt and a whole host of complicating factors related to turnover and levels of debt to be taken into account.

VivaPaulScholes wrote:Now Newcastle are having thier best season in years while Chelsea and Liverpool (Made it to two cup finals) are having a disartous season, now imagine if they hit just a little form they would be miles ahead of Newcastle.

I was agreeing with you until this absolute bull**** was typed. If Liverpool had hit 'a little form' you say they would be miles ahead of Newcastle, WTF? Seriously, even if Liverpool had played a 'normal season' they would be struggling to hang on to Newcastle & Tottenham currently and everyone knows it. Liverpool are currently 16 points off and are having a disastrous season for a reason. Newcastle have a squad capable of sustaining this form and people need to start waking up and realising this. Just because there name is 'Liverpool' does not guarantee them a top 4 finish or that there still better than this Newcastle side. You also say Chelsea would be miles ahead of Newcastle with a little form, well then your saying they would be miles ahead of Arsenal & Tottenham and comfortably in third with a little form or improvement to their results.....I don't think so.

Stick to worrying about Man Utd.

VPS OK so you disagree re: Man Utd. but I can't see how you think almost the entire midfield Fergie has at his disposal isn't creaking at the seams. Sure they have a number of youngsters too but where was the attempt to blood long term replacements for "old man" Giggs and "in and out of" retirement Scholes?

If I was a Man Utd youngster seeing how quickly Fergie went back to Scholes and the amount of faith he put in a player like Giggs (who surely should normally come off the bench?) I'd be non-plussed.

If I was a Man Utd youngster seeing how quickly Fergie went back to Scholes and the amount of faith he put in a player like Giggs (who surely should normally come off the bench?) I'd be non-plussed.

Same here. Fergy used to always rely on his youngsters to shine but how can they if they are only playing in Carling Cup?

Ok I went over the top with the "miles ahead" comment, I really want Newcastle to get Champions League (Not to benefit United) you've played well but I don't think you can say after one season that you're ahead of those teams as in consistently finishing in the top 4.

The Scholes, Beckham and co era was a one off and we were lucky to have a great bunch to come through at the same time, you'd be lucky to get one world class player come out of your youth system in 10 years never mind a bunch. It's a lot harder to blood in younger players now with the pressure of immediate results.

About the topic I feel if you miss one season it makes a massive difference, look at Spurs when they finished 5th Modroc wanted to leave. Chelsea's saving grace is their budget, Roman will pay over the odds in wages and transfers to get the players maybe not the top level but good enough players. Cisse, Ba, Ben Arfa, Colocini once get a taste of Champions League they will want to play there and youll need to finish 4th just to keep these guys.

VivaPaulScholes wrote:Ok I went over the top with the "miles ahead" comment, I really want Newcastle to get Champions League (Not to benefit United)

Not to benefit struggling Manchester United

Of course you want Newcastle to get the CL as it would mean them getting at least a draw against City. Newcastle should easily get a draw against City at home.

VPS on a similar vein to the idea of missing out on CL by finishing 5th would any team that finished 4th have a leg to stand on in a claim for potential lost revenue should Chelsea win in Munich due to UEFA fiddling the rules?

Now I'm not asking that just because I happen to support Newcastle and we might not get a better chance of playing in the competition but more for the wider implications when income generated is key to maintaining success at the top level.

Honestly I want to see Newcastle in Champions League, getting a result against Man City would be sweet.

Didn't UEFA put the rule in place after Liverpool finished 5th, I don't know but the way the bodies are run I doubt you'd get anything. I think it's a silly rule and if you win the Champions League you should still have to qualify for it. Some may agree but I don't think it's fair on a team who grafted hard for 38 games.

Some may agree but I don't think it's fair on a team who grafted hard for 38 games.

Well, some people think 4 teams is too many for 1 country to have in the draw of the UCL... so 5 would be just taking the p|ss.

VivaPaulScholes wrote: Honestly I want to see Newcastle in Champions League, getting a result against Man City would be sweet.

Didn't UEFA put the rule in place after Liverpool finished 5th, I don't know but the way the bodies are run I doubt you'd get anything. I think it's a silly rule and if you win the Champions League you should still have to qualify for it. Some may agree but I don't think it's fair on a team who grafted hard for 38 games.

It happened to Madrid as well a few years before.

It won't be unfair to the team in 4th as those are the rules laid out at the start of the season.

Ent wrote:

VivaPaulScholes wrote: Honestly I want to see Newcastle in Champions League, getting a result against Man City would be sweet.

Didn't UEFA put the rule in place after Liverpool finished 5th, I don't know but the way the bodies are run I doubt you'd get anything. I think it's a silly rule and if you win the Champions League you should still have to qualify for it. Some may agree but I don't think it's fair on a team who grafted hard for 38 games.

It happened to Madrid as well a few years before.

It won't be unfair to the team in 4th as those are the rules laid out at the start of the season.

When did they do that? I can't seem to remember them finishing below the qualifying positions the season after winning the Champions League.

The rule hasn't been in place until the situation happened which is unfair just to benefit the winners because they couldn't do it through the league.

VivaPaulScholes wrote:

Ent wrote:

VivaPaulScholes wrote: Honestly I want to see Newcastle in Champions League, getting a result against Man City would be sweet.

Didn't UEFA put the rule in place after Liverpool finished 5th, I don't know but the way the bodies are run I doubt you'd get anything. I think it's a silly rule and if you win the Champions League you should still have to qualify for it. Some may agree but I don't think it's fair on a team who grafted hard for 38 games.

It happened to Madrid as well a few years before.

It won't be unfair to the team in 4th as those are the rules laid out at the start of the season.

When did they do that? I can't seem to remember them finishing below the qualifying positions the season after winning the Champions League.

The rule hasn't been in place until the situation happened which is unfair just to benefit the winners because they couldn't do it through the league.

In 99/00 Madrid came 5th and where placed in the tournament. Uefa evidently thought this was a one off but changed the rules after it happened again.

It is not unfair, if you win a cup you should be able to defend it. It would have been unfair if there was no pre existing ruling and UEFA said near the close of the season the team in 4th wouldn't be in the play offs if the team in 5/6th won it.

I think Chelsea will be saved by the fact that they have the money to build a new side if they don't make it. I'd be very surprised if Chelsea don't make at least one big signing this summer. With names like Anelka already gone and Drogba, Ferreira, Bosingwa, Malouda, Kalou and possibly even Lampard likely to follow him out they need to rebuild.

The core of their side should really be Cech, Luiz, Mata, Torres for next season and build the side around that.