Aviva Premiership Semi Final

Leicester Tigers Vs. Bath Rugby
Weather: Cloudy , 9 degrees , 7mph winds

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Leicester Tigers
Manager – Sgt_Pooly

01. Marco Ayerza	09. Ben Youngs
02. Tom Youngs	10. Toby Flood
03. Martin Castrogiovani
04. Richie Gray	11. Christian Wade
05. Geoff Parling	12. Berrick Barnes
06. Tom Croft	13. Manu Tuilagi
07. Sam Warburton (c)	14. James O’Connor
08. Thomas Waldroum	15. Geordan Murphy

16. Rob Hawkins 17. Dan Cole 18. Boris Stankovich 19. Joe Launchbury 20. Luke Wallace 21. Sam Harrison 22. Billy Twelvetrees 23. Miles Benjamin

Tactics

General - High tempo, free running, offloading game in the good rugby conditions. We’ll be looking for big carries from our pack to free up space around the fringes for out talented backline to work in.

Forwards- We will look to set a tone in the set piece with our big scrummaging front 5 and will look for the squeeze from the off. Parling will lead the line and we will look to target the opposition's throw with Croft/Gray marshalling the front/middle of the line. We'll use big carries from our pack to draw in the opposition defence with Youngs marshalling and looking for gaps to exploit around the fringes. Look to get Gray, Castro, Waldroum, Warburton on the ball as much as possible and exploit our superior physicality in the pack. Draw the Bath defensive line in and look to exploit the gaps with electric players in the backline.

Backs
Look to play whats on attack the gaps. Manu to use his physicality and look for mismatches in the opp defensice line. Look to draw the defence and use decoy with Wade/JOC coming into the line and using gas in backs. Barnes to marshall backline and draw defense.

- HOME ADVANTAGE - This is huge and and a key factor in the opposition midset
- Look to play at high temp and target opposite numbers in defence
- Strong hits and fast line to force knock ons and look to dominate scrum
- Look to get Castro at Catt from off and target throughout, Cole to turn screw in 2nd
- 3 WC jumpers in Croft/Parling/Gray look to dismantle Bath lineout and starve of good ball
- Control set piece and look to wheel Bath round giving JOC/Manu space to work in

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Bath Rugby

Manager – Bathite

Bath name a side with only one change to their starting XV, with Nathan Catt coming in to shore up the scrum at loosehead.

01. N.Catt	09. C.Cook
02. L.Mears	10. S.Vesty
03. O.Franks
04. J.Muller	11. O.Woodburn
05. R.Caldwell	12. F.Steyn (k)
06. C.Fearns	13. C.Laulala
07. F.Louw (c)	14. T.Biggs
08. S.O'Brien	15. I.Dagg

16. A.Perenise 17. R.Batty 18. J.Golding 19. S.Hooper 20. M.Lund 21. M.McMillan 22. S.Donald 23. M.Banahan

TACTICS TBC

General
In a tense knockout game, the kicking game will be crucial and with Vesty, Steyn and Dagg, we have three of the best. We want to make sure that we play rugby in the opposition half and force handling errors, where we can attack the scrum and use the boot of Steyn to keep the scoreboard ticking over. Use the physicality of our pack to our advantage, keeping the ball tight in the middle section of the pitch to retain possession and build a platform to attack from. In our third clear to touch and challenge for the ball at lineout.

Vesty and Steyn to ensure we play sensible rugby in the right areas, kicking long for touch in our 22, using the up and under in the centre of the pitch and delicate grubbers in behind centres to chase and force kickable penalties.

Steyn leads the rush defence, with Louw/Fearns flying up to cramp FH for time and space and ensuring he takes the ball deep behind the gainline and starving their outside backs of ball.

Forwards
* Picked a very physical pack to make sure that we defend strongly and smash over the gainline. O'Brien to lead pack from base of scrum making hard yards and setting up the ruck for Louw and Fearns to clear out. SOB to mark Waldrom in defence.
* At the lineout, Muller's return is timely and he will look to dominate the lineout, as he has done previously.
* Louw is a breakdown specialist and will look to stay on his feet at the ruck and slow opposition ball down. Fearns and Lund to guard to the fringes of the ruck
* Use ball carriers of Franks, Louw, Caldwell, O'Brien, Lund, Fearns to make hard yards up the pitch and draw defenders into the ruck area, looking to create space around the fringes for Laulala to exploit
* Steyn to crash it up in the 10/12 channel to test defence of Barnes and Flood. Big hits early on both of these two to intimidate and set the tone

Backs
* Dagg given free rein in attack, looking to come into the line either side of Laulala. Laulala to look for the half gap with power and offload (only if on), with the pace of Biggs and Woodburn on their shoulder to make the break
* Vesty to take the ball flat on the gainline, drawing defenders and buying time and space for Steyn in the 2nd playmaker role. Steyn not afraid to bosh it up if nothing on and set up the ruck.
* Vary the point of attack with 10/12 interchanging, look to keep it unpredictable on the gainline + difficult to defend against. Use the inside pass with forward runners of Franks, Caldwell, SOB to keep the inside shoulder honest and force the 10 to make tackles.
* Get Laulala on the ball early on and encourage a very pacy back three to run off his shoulder. Only offload if it is on, otherwise, crash it up and use SOB, Fearns, Caldwell to clear out and Louw to secure.
* In the second half, bring on Banahan for a huge physical threat. Encourage him to run into the centre channel early on and test a tired defence.

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Northampton Saints Vs. Gloucester Rugby
Weather: Cloudy , 9 degrees , 8mph winds

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Northampton Saints
Manager – SirJohnnyEnglish

01. Soane Tonga'uiha	09. Lee Dickson
02. Richardt Strauss	10. Johnny Sexton
03. Brian Mujati
04. Courtney Lawes	11. Chris Ashton
05. Christian Day	12. James Downey
06. Stephen Ferris	13. George Pisi
07. Tom Wood	14. Scott Armstrong
08. Kieran Read	15. Ben Foden

16. Alex Waller 17. Mike Haywood 18. Paul Doran-Jones 19. Mark Sorenson 20. Phil Dowson 21. Martin Roberts 22. Stephen Myler 23. Noah Cato

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General Game Plan:

We will use our strong carriers to attack gaps and half gaps in the Gloucester line, looking to offload in contact to support runners thus changing the point of attack and keeping our forward momentum going. Sexton will look to attack flat from first receiver and inject pace to the proceedings committing the Gloucester defence and leaving space in wider channels for our runners to exploit. If running the ball is not on our halfbacks will look to the boot to put us in the right areas.

On defence, we will use a blitz defence coming up at pace looking to isolate the Gloucester ball carriers before they can get to the gain line stopping any momentum and allowing us to hit the breakdown harder. Lee Dickson will act as a sweeper to cover any grubbers or chips behind the line while our back three will sit deep ready to cover any kicks down the touch lines and counter attack at pace.

With the blitz in operation we will look to be at the breakdown first hitting it fast and hard. The first two players on the scene will look to ruck past the ball and clear out the Gloucester players allowing Wood and co the opportunity to poach. If the ball does not look available we will not commit to the ruck and look to strengthen the defensive line instead.

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Key Points:

•Home Advantage

With a baying home crowd at the hostile Gardens looking to intimidate both Gloucester and the ref, Glaws will need to be at their very best to win!

•Form & Momentum

We come into this as the only unbeaten side in the league. With a good rotation policy and on the back of resting a few high profile players last week we come in fresher then Gloucester who are off the back of a big game against London Irish.

We already hold a win over Gloucester this season with a 4 point victory at Kingsholm (where half this side were missing) which should have a big mental effect on the Gloucester players. If Gloucester are down on the score board coming into the final quarter heads may well drop.

•Scrum

We will contest every engagement! On our own feed we will look to get the wheel on and create extra room for our 8-9-10 axis to work in. On Gloucester ball we will disrupt the put in looking for penalties or to create rushed poor ball for the Gloucester halfbacks.

With the benches to come into play we will look to target Dan Murphy mercilessly in the final quarter and look to draw penalties galore.

•Lineout

With 5 jumpers we want to really use the lineout as an attacking platform like South Africa in recent years. We will use a full compliment and play the ball off the top allowing our halfbacks to get on the ball at pace with room outside.

•Breakdown

With a huge but mobile front 5 and a back row well versed in the dark arts, we want to punish the lack of a real opposition breakdown expert. We will disrupt Gloucester ball looking for counter attacking opportunities, forcing Burns at 10 to live off scraps today.

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Gloucester

Manager – prop_lyd

01. Nick Wood	09. Rory Lawson
02. Darren Dawiduk	10. Freddie Burns (k)
03. Adam Jones
04. Tom Savage	11. Charlie Sharples
05. Sam Whitelock	12. EFS
06. Alistair Strokosch	13. Henry Trinder
07. Akapusi Qera	14. JSD
08. JVN (c)	15. Pat Lambie

16.Scott Lawson 17.Dan Murphy 18.Rupert Harden 19.Alex Brown 20.Luke Narraway 21.Dave Lewis 22.Mike Tindall 23.Iain Balshaw

Tactics
We come here with fantastic form and massive morale having finished 3rd in the league and surprising everyone. No one can take us lightly and we will continue our attractive brand of rugby with a hint of brute force up front. We have some big game players in the pack in Jones, Whitelock and JVN who will all look to lead from the front. In the backs Burns and Lambie are interchangeable and JSD will be the leader allow cool heads on the youngsters whilst implementing an attack orientated game plan. Saints are a strong squad and at home their support will be vocal which is why we are looking for an early lead to turn their fans against them.

Forwards
*Get the inital hit and look for the second shove on the scrums, the front row will look to turn them inside out and their main target will be to clear out the rucks for quick ball
*Dominate the lineouts with 4 jumpers starting and 2 more to come on, the 2nd rows will look to be physical and Whitelock'll look to link with the back row, Brown will come on to take apart a tired lineout.
*Backrow to carry strong throughout the game and to run off the back line giving them further options.
*Look for turnovers and use Qera's hard hitting and Strokosch's to do this and slow their ball, JVN will provide the link to the back line and we will look at a 8-9-15 move off the base of the scrum.
*Use the bench with Narraway coming on on the hour to hit tired defence at the breakdown. We won't look to use all the players if we don't need them but can see Lawson and Harden making an impact in the front row and expect Wood should last 80mins!!

Backs
*Quick ball to Burns who will look to pin them back initally before releasing EFS and Trinder off of quick 2nd phase ball or slow 4th phase ball to run at disorganised defences.
*Centres to run straight and hard and to look to offload to back 3 or back row support, Trinder will look to target tired forwards with angles. First 20 minutes will be battering ram fast paced rugby off the centres.
*Back 3 to go hunting for the ball and use their angled running to slice through the defence, high balls will be used to get space and give JSD and Sharples the opportunity to run, Morgan will pick and choose his runs and, when with the ball in own half will sometimes look at up and unders.
*Hard blitz banana defence with a backrower on Burns’ shoulder to look to get the first hit and turnover, Lawson/Lewis will act as a sweeper.
*Use the bench: Lewis: fresh, sniping legs, Tindall: experience and hard running at tired defences, Balshaw: a calm head in excellent form.

BOOM!

How long should predictions be?

no limit you could just do the scores mate.

Three lines minimum for the full prediction bonus, and any less is half that, bar just the scores.

Semi1- Tigers vs Bath

Tigers win the kick off and kick to SOB, who sets up a strong maul, from which the ball is recycled through a couple of phases. Warburton pushed too far trying to turn the ball over and the first points of the game go to Bath from Steyn's boot. Then Fran Steyn starts to put in the long kicks that keep Tigers pinned in their 22. Eventually Murphy replies with a kick to touch. From here the Tigers steal lineout ball, but the backs are smothered by the blitz defence. After losing ground for several phases, Flood tries to chip and chase but Dagg takes the ball , beats 2 men and puts in a probing kick that Murphy hoofs into touch barely before Biggs can pounce on it. From the ensuing lineout, Bath retain possession but can make no headway as Laulau cannot gets smothered by Manu and JOC. Eventually Steyn hits a 35m dropgoal to keep the points ticking over. Then Fearns, under huge pressure from the Tigers pack, knocks on the restart. The Leicester scrum tears into the Bath pack, and the penalty is kicked to the corner. The Leicester pack drive a maul over and Cole scores. JOC converts. Then Leicester find their confidence and with some great defence from SOB Bath barely hold on to the end of the half as the backrow keep taking on blindside carries and then in the last moment of the half, JOC is scrambled into touch metres out.

In the second half, Bath again take the first points as there is blocking off the kickoff, but Tigers use Barnes and Flood to kick their way into the Bath 22 and remain camped there for the rest of the game. Under huge strain, the Bath scrum concedes 2 penalties that are kicked for goal, and Catt is sent to the bin. Leicester score through Ritchie Gray after a half-break from Manu, who is then subbed off for Twelvetrees. Bath nearly score up the other end against the run of play through Dagg but the Tigers back 3 haul him down short, take the ball and send it sailing through the air. In the last 10, Tigers score another try through Wade and Launchbury makes a try saving tackle on Fearns but concedes a penalty, which is scant consolation for Bath.

Tigers- 25. Bath- 12
Tries- Cole, Gray, Wade
Penalties- JOCx2. Steyn x3
DGs- Steyn
Conversions- JOC x2

Saints 17 - 20 Glos
Forwards - Don't see anything in the front row battles, where both teams are really strong. Perhaps Struass' experience here counts for me though. PDJ coming off the bench is a real plus though and I see some real advantages late on the second half. For me, both second rows are equal, perhaps even an edge to Glos with Lawes lack of form and Savage's recent form swinging it. Back rows about even I think as well, Wood's lack of form not a huge issue with the quality of Ferris and Read either side of him.
Backs - I'd have the half back battle to the homeside here, but none of the outside backs will have the same luxury. Really like the set up of the Glos backs and with another playmaker and kicking option at fb, there is potential to change the gameplan.

Although Saints have a big pack and some big names in there, I don't think that they will have that much dominance against Glos, whose front row stays solid. In the backs, Glos have some real joy, with pace to burn.

Jesus Cheque!!!

Only need 2 line averages for 3m, great effort tho!

I did it on my iPhone, so I had to guess what 3 lines was so I just kept on writing!

Tigers 20-18 Bath

Forwards: Catt will struggle against Castro but I'd give the lock pairing to Bath at scrum time with Tigers edging the lineout. The back row battle will go Tigers' way with Waldrom doing a lot of carrying.

Backs: Young-Flood axis is good when performing well, Vesty (bar the Wasps slipup) is in good form though and will match the running style. Centres will go to Bath with their kicking options and the back 3 is taken by Tigers but Dagg will find some space when he hits the line.

This would be a great match to watch with differing tactics and I can see Tigers getting ahead at the start but Bath will kick themselves back into the match. Tigers just have a little more in the tank and home advantage to nick this.

Leicester Tigers 23-18 Bath Rugby

Castro can cause some problems at scrum time here and Tigers get the advantage. Tigers more of an attacking threat at the lineout but Muller should just be able to do enough to hold on to his own ball. Good clean backrow battle with no edge either way but more on show from the Tigers half backs. Midfield even but back 3 edge overall to Tigers.
Tigers at home get the better attacking base from the set piece and should do enough to seal a final spot.

Saints 23-21 Gloucester

Fancy a little edge in the scrum to Gloucester but lineout will be tight with better 2nd row options for Gloucester but bacrow to Saints. Saints backrow has that little more in each position and will be hard to contain. I think Dickson slows down play a little but Sexton is good form and will give more of a threat here. Not much in the centres and back 3's. Home advantage is massive in semi's and Saints just have enough.

can't predo till about 10

Saints 20- Gloucester 26

Leicester Tigers 22 - 19 Bath Rugby

A cheeky front five battle, with teams getting spoils in both the scrummage and the lineout. However Tigers will get more of an edge in both areas, as the bench and fitness shows. I like the combination of both backrows, but the sheer athleticism from the Tigers pack will help them. In the halfbacks, Flood is in good form, but Youngs is suffering some what. Vesty and co are in some form, especially with Steyn and Dagg keeping the away side in the game. But the sheer quality from the Tigers pack will provide the go forward for a good home win.

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Northampton Saints 16 - 17 Gloucester Rugby

Another good setpiece battle, which in my opinion will go to Glouc in the scrums and the lineout to the Saints. The form of the Glouc front five is telling around the park, however the sheer ability and physcality of the Saints backrow negates that. With it being even its down to the backs. Sexton and Dickson are in great form, but then again the unpredicitbilty of Burns produces points. There is a razor like sharpness to the Cherry and Whites backline and back three in particular. However the same could be said for Saints. So in the end with both strong benches in the game, the nerveless kicking of Lambie will somehow pull Glouc through to a shock win away from home.

Leicester 9 Bath 8
Northampton 10 Gloucester 12

Gloucester come out strong off the start and score an early brace of tries through Trinder and Sharples. Then Saints strike back through Foden. The rest of the first half is a kicking game, one penalty each.

The second half will be forwards dominated, edged by Saints who will win 3 penalties in the scrum and kick for touch and roll over mails for 2 unconverted tries. Then in the last 10 Gloucester up their game and score a try which they also fail to convert. They then get a penalty shortly off the restart and secure victory with a dropgoal in the 81st minute.

I'd write more but I am out and busy, sorry.

Going to leave predo's open a bit longer...still 5 to predict

Have to post these now as up early:

Leicester Tigers 25-15 Bath Rugby
Northampton Saints 18-23 Gloucester

Congratulations to Prop in a pretty huge win AWAY to Saints, seriously didn't see that coming with Saints home form this season.

Blydi hell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Ulucky SirJ....really thought you'd win!!

HUGE win mate, well done.

Last time I looked at table you were near the bottom, now you're in final?!?!?

I know........signing Whitelock and Lambie and getting Jones fit worked wonders!!

Best I've EVER done on these games!!

Chuffed for you mate, you've certainly done the hard graft!!!

Just need Driver to come back from the ashes now lol....

Well done Prop.

Gutted! Congratulations to Prop

Cheers guys....free tickets to you all for the final...so long as I win

Full bonus:

Bathite, Prop, Pooly, Flux, Cheuqe, SJE

Half:

Driver

Sorry for not predicting, am away camping so no wi fi and weather playing havoc with 3G.