Aviva Premiership - Semi Final 1 Preview

Leicester Tigers v Harlequins
Saturday 11th May 15:00 (Sky)

Ref: Greg Garner
Assistant Referees: Stuart Terheege & Gordon Goodliffe. TMO: Geoff Warren.

Leicester host reigning champions Harlequins in the first semi-final of the weekend. Quins will arrive at Welford Road with the confidence of 3 successive wins over the East Midlands behemoth. Tigers meanwhile will find confidence and comfort from a long run of Premiership Semi Final victories (last failed to make the final in 2004). In fact in all competitions, Leicester have won 12 semi-finals in a row - shame about the record once they get to finals. Both teams managed 15 wins in the regular season, with Tigers draw at Wembley and extra BPs ensuring the home advantage.

Whilst their "A" side was playing with flair and confidence when winning the LV cup, the first team seemed to struggle for form as spring arrived. A series of losses saw them drop from the top of the table to briefly even flirt with dropping out of the play-offs. This culminated in the disappointing loss to a motivated (but limited) Munster side in the HEC 1/4 final. Two decent wins since then will have improved morale in the Quins camp. Even so the normally affable Connor O'Shea seems to be feeling the pressure that expectation can bring - based on comments made to various media outlets in the last week as he has sought to defend Quins record this season. Quins have seemed to be trying to change their style of play from last season a little - moving the ball wider earlier. This has at times created problems for them defensively as they have looked a lot more vulnerable to turnovers. When they manage to play their high tempo, high off-load game they have looked like a team that could defend their title. When the energy levels have not been there they seem to have struggled.

Pressure is something that Richard Cockerill knows all about. Unreasonably or not, Leicester board and fans demand trophies and who knows failing to make the AP final could see Tigers looking for a new DoR as well as a new head coach. Crazy hey? Like Quins, Tigers form has been a bit up and down. When they have been on the front foot, they have looked really strong and have attacked with gusto. They have also shown an ability to score length of the field tries - often from turnovers. Across the team they fight at the breakdown to secure ball, but Julian Salvi has been the main man. As such in recent weeks opposition have really targeted him. Bath and LI both had the first man at the ruck picking Salvi up and dumping him away from the ball. Where tigers have really struggled is in breaking down strong, organised defences. In 7 matches against the 4 best sides they have faced (Sarries, Quins, Toulouse, Toulon) they have scored just 4 tries, and been tryless in 5 of the matches.



Team News

Leicester
With the announcement that Anthony Allen was not considered for England's summer tour due to medical advice, there have to be doubts over his fitness for Saturday. Should Allen be ruled out Tigers need to decide from a number of options. Most likely woul dbe a start for Bowden, but other options include Matt Tait and Matt Smith. Ed Slater, despite being selected for that tour, is another doubt. Marcos Ayerza and Louis Deacon are both injured - Ayerza a major loss. We can expect to see Castro and Murphy making their last appearances at WR from the bench.

Predicted team:
Mulipola, Youngs, Cole, Slater/Kitchener, Croft, Salvi, Crane, Youngs, Flood, thompstone, Bowden, Tuilagi, Morris Tait
Reps: Hawkins, Balmain, Castro, Mafi, Waldrom, Harrison, Ford, Murphy



Harlequins:
Quins will be hoping that inspirational captain Chris Robshaw is fit again. Other than that I am not aware of any injury issues, so Connor O'Shea has a full hand to pick from. Main decisions will be at inside centre and back row. Casson will probably get the nod over Turner-Hall, and I reckon that we will see Fa'asavalu return to the blindside. Other main decision is whether England tourist Buchanan keeps his spot at hooker ahead of the regular starter Gray.

Possible team:
Marler, Buchanan, Johnston, Kohn, Robson, Fa'asavalu, Robshaw, Easter, Care, Monye, Casson, Lowe, Williams, Brown
Reps: Gray, Lambert, Collier, Guest, Wallace, Dickson, Botica, Chisholm




Outcome
Leicester will be relieved not to have Wayne Barnes holding the whistle especially at scrum time. Ayerza is a huge loss, but the power and bulk of Mulipola probably matches up better to Johnston than any other TH in the league. Defensively the absence of Allen could be crucial. both teams will look to play a high intensity game, and I feel (hope?) that Tigers will just have too much power, while Quins will make more mistakes. We could have a classic match - time Tigers won really.

Brilliant write up LT

Agree with all of that and with your prediction for the teams. For what it's worth I would like Quins to go with 6. Robshaw 7. Wallace and Mo on the bench to really target the breakdown and that little sod Salvi, then when things tire a little bring on Mo to smash some people. Also we'll probably have Charlie Mathews on the bench to cover lock so if he doesn't start Wallace will sadly miss out all together as CoS prefers Guest as his bench man.

Quins have been trying to go wide but lack of dynamism from the pack, Nev's poor form and two fairly average strike wingers (but pretty good support players and very good broken field runners) means that it hasn't been that effective.

If we're to beat Tigers then we need to go back to the A game, offloads out of contact and keep it tight, use our mobile forwards to run around Leicester as much as in to them and make sure we pressure the scrums and lineout. Don't try to go too wide, don't try the risky stuff in our own 22 and take every chance of points when it comes.

Honestly I actually feel pretty good for this game. Quins to win.

Harlequins

Harlequins

Harlequins

Harlequins

Harlequins

COYQ's!

As a Quins fan I am reasonably confident we will come away with another win at Welford.
Hope so as I have money on Quins as champs again

Quins have every reason to feel confident. Just as Sarries did last year

As to back row for Quins - yeah COS will probably leave Wallace out entirely - but I just feel that having two back rowers there (and Easter to cover second row if needed) would be of more use on what was at the weekend a very dry looking pitch.

You may be right LT, I just don't think CoS will change from the tried and tested though. Likewise we could just as easily see any of JTH/Lowe, Casson/Lowe, JTH/Hopper, Casson/Hopper in the centre's but I think he'll go with Casson/Lowe as Casson got the nod last week in the must win game against Saints.

I don't think the Quins front 5 have been as effective this year and this could be there downfall. You look at the Tigers front 5 and even without Ayerza, that is still an excellent 5.

If Nev can find his form and pull out one of his performances Quins could get this, otherwise I can see Tigers winning this by 10.

Despite Quins' recent record, Leicester should win this. Not easily, but they ought to have enough at home.

The key for Quins will be to start at pace, win the early collisions and put some points on the board. If that happens, and Tigers have to start chasing the game, then Quins have the edge and if they can keep their defensive focus should be able to hold on.

Tigers will win if they can control the breakdown and put the squeeze on at the scrum. If it becomes a setpiece battle then they'll have the edge. The big challenges for them will be maintaining their defensive organisation without Allen, and what happens when Mulipola tires.

I don't think he's an 80 minute prop, and if Quins are in touch when Leicester start to use their bench, Quins may be able to get enough of an edge up front to open up the game.

Leicester Tigers (vs Harlequins, Aviva Premiership Rugby semi-final, Welford Road, Saturday 3pm)
15 Mathew Tait
14 Niall Morris
13 Manusamoa Tuilagi
12 Anthony Allen
11 Vereniki Goneva
10 Toby Flood (c)
9 Ben Youngs
1 Logovi'i Mulipola
2 Tom Youngs
3 Dan Cole
4 Graham Kitchener
5 Geoff Parling
6 Tom Croft
7 Julian Salvi
8 Jordan Crane

Replacements
16 Rob Hawkins
17 Fraser Balmain
18 Martin Castrogiovanni
19 Steve Mafi
20 Thomas Waldrom
21 Sam Harrison
22 George Ford
23 Matt Smith

Harlequins
15 Mike Brown
14 Tom Williams
13 George Lowe
12 Tom Casson
11 Ugo Monye
10 Nick Evans
9 Danny Care
1 Joe Marler
2 Joe Gray
3 James Johnston
4 Olly Kohn
5 George Robson
6 Maurie Fa'asavalu
7 Luke Wallace
8 Nick Easter (c)

Replacements
16 Rob Buchanan
17 Mark Lambert
18 Will Collier
19 Charlie Matthews
20 Tom Guest
21 Karl Dickson
22 Ben Botica
23 Ross Chisholm

Surprised to see Allen playing after the comments in the week from RFU. Slater's non-appearance not a surprise but must put his touring spot at risk. Goneva keeps the 11 shirt - not sure if that means that Thompstone is injured. Goneva certainly has more flaier and is probably quicker, but boy Thompstone has been effective. finally no final run-out at WR for the legend that is Geordy.

Robshaw not fit, otherwis Quins as expected.

Maybe Allen is going to have an op at the end of the season as often happens.

Still can't see past a Tigers win. Having the likes of Castro, Mafi & Waldrom just illustrates how many farms/italian restaurants there must be in Leicester!

The incentives:

Castro - an Italian restaurant serving food just like his momma used to make back in old Roma Buenos Aires
Steve Mafi - as many Janet & John books as he can read.
Thomas meanwhile is allowed full access to George Chuter's Hornby set.



Who needs team bonding trips to Dubai or Capetown

In Leicester itself you'll only find Italian chain restaurants and certainly no farms.

No Deacon and no Slater leaves is perilously light in the engine room for my tastes. Thompstone's injury is a blow as he's been excellent, Goneva is as much a threat as a liability.

Not so confident at the minute.

LondonTiger wrote:The incentives:

Castro - an Italian restaurant serving food just like his momma used to make back in old Roma Buenos Aires
Steve Mafi - as many Janet & John books as he can read.
Thomas meanwhile is allowed full access to George Chuter's Hornby set.



Who needs team bonding trips to Dubai or Capetown

Got to say I'm disappointed these two come up against each other at the semi final stage as i think they could of made a great final.

I think both teams are in with a decent shout but it's hard to look past Leicester given their impressive form, especially in comparison to Quins.

I'm not sure why Quins fans are confident here - theyve not shown great form lately and Evans hasnt quite been right.
Robshaw is a big blow too.

I would love to see Quins get to the final again but cant see this one happening.

The real matches come along now, all that hard work in the League counts for nothing unless teams can make it count here. Tigers are very strong at Welford Road and have an incredible run of very recent form (again) and record at Semi-Finals, however Quins have had some joy at Welford Road and against Tigers in general the past few games and will fancy their chances especially with they too finally hitting some form and seeing off 4th place Saints in their last game (though with less aplomb than Tigers managed a few weeks before).

Tigers:

Mathew Tait and Dan Cole return to the Leicester Tigers starting line-up for Saturday's Aviva Premiership Rugby semi-final against Harlequins at Welford Road (3pm).
England internationals Tait and Cole were both among the replacements for last weekend's bonus-point win over London Irish but reclaim their starting spots for Saturday.

Toby Flood will lead out the team as captain for the club's ninth successive appearance in the Premiership semi-finals.

Director of rugby Richard Cockerill said: "We've been in good form and had some good momentum in the run-in but now it is knockout rugby. It's all about being ready and the players bringing their best game on the day against a very good Harlequins side."

Tigers are expecting another 20,000-plus crowd for the last home game of the season. Tickets are still available from the Tigers ticket office, which is open until 5pm Friday and from 9am on Saturday.

Purchase in person at Welford Road, phone the ticket office on 0844 856 1880 (option 2) or book online at the club website.

Leicester Tigers (vs Harlequins, Aviva Premiership Rugby semi-final, Welford Road, Saturday 3pm)
15 Mathew Tait
14 Niall Morris
13 Manusamoa Tuilagi
12 Anthony Allen
11 Vereniki Goneva
10 Toby Flood (c)
9 Ben Youngs
1 Logovi'i Mulipola
2 Tom Youngs
3 Dan Cole
4 Graham Kitchener
5 Geoff Parling
6 Tom Croft
7 Julian Salvi
8 Jordan Crane

Replacements
16 Rob Hawkins
17 Fraser Balmain
18 Martin Castrogiovanni
19 Steve Mafi
20 Thomas Waldrom
21 Sam Harrison
22 George Ford
23 Matt Smith

Quins:

Harlequins have announced the team that will play Leicester Tigers in the Aviva Premiership semi-final at Welford Road tomorrow, kick-off 3.00pm (Live on Sky Sports 1 from 2.30pm).
Flanker Chris Robshaw has failed a late fitness test as he continues to recover from an injury sustained against Worcester Warriors in Round 21.

In the back row Luke Wallace continues at openside flanker with Maurie Fa'asavalu at blindside, one of two changes to the starting line-up, with captain and number 8 Nick Easter.

The second change sees Joe Gray starting at hooker where he is joined in the front row with Joe Marler and James Johnston.

There are no changes to the back line as Tom Casson and George Lowe continue their centre partnership.

Harlequins Team

15. Mike Brown
14. Tom Williams
13. George Lowe
12. Tom Casson
11. Ugo Monye
10 Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler
2. Joe Gray
3. James Johnston
4. Olly Kohn
5. George Robson
6. Maurie Fa'asavalu
7. Luke Wallace
8. Nick Easter (C)

16. Rob Buchanan
17. Mark Lambert
18. Will Collier
19. Charlie Matthews
20. Tom Guest
21. Karl Dickson
22. Ben Botica
23. Ross Chisholm

There will be players from both sides looking to make a statement on a personal level- the Tiger-Lions will want to show they deserve to start on their Tour, and the Quins England players will want to show they should start for England. Marler and Brown are fighting serious competition for their places (Corbs for one and either the likes of Wade or Foden/Goode for the other) and there will be players on both sides desperate to show they should be going with England (like Tait). It is also possibly JJ's swansong vs a great front-row, Nev's first match as a new father (hopefully not been kept awake!) and Ford's potential last match for Tigers.

One man with a huge amount to prove is Danny Care, ignored controversially for the Lions despite his blistering form and ideally suited to the climate and opposition in Australia and rested by England despite having not played much starting rugby for them and probably being useful in assessing how the new backline options slot in. He faces Ben Youngs, who is 1st choice for England and going with the Lions and in good form. Youngs was voted TalkSport scrum half of the year and Care is up for the Premiership player of the year and both will look to shine.

Elsewhere one of the most devastating scrummaging weapons in the Premiership, JJ, together with England's Marler and Gray desperate to show he should start ahead of Buchanan for Club and Country, plays against one of the most complete front rows in British rugby, Lions Cole and Youngs and the solid Mulipola, hoping to leave the club on a high. Another Lion, Parling, will look to assert his dominance in the air over Robson who is key to Quins but has had an indifferent season. Ollie Kohn will look to show that his solitary 15 mins of rugby for Wales (eligible via grandmother) should be extended against Kitchener who will wonder what he needs to do to get a call-up.

Croft will look to play his attacking game despite predicted poor weather and make himself first choice 6 for the Lions alongside Aussie Salvi who is one of the cannier 7s around and Crane who will try and get himself back into the International frame after a few years blighted by injury. Opposite this back row is Big Mo, who had a poor season but an excellent finish and looks hungry, Luke Wallace trying to add to Captain Robshaw's (out injured, rested by England with his captaincy and place up for grabs and ignored by the Lions having been a front-runner for skipper only a a couple of months ago) woes by taking his openside spot (and who played excellent rugby against Saints, outclassing Tom Wood) and Captain Nick Easter who will aim to show both Gatland and Lancaster what an error they have made in ignoring him despite 2 exceptionally consistent seasons as the best 8 in England on the trot.

Outside the wunderkind scrummies we have the experience of Nev and Flood. Flood is rested by England and will be looking to show that come the autumn he is a better option than Farrell, and Nev will hope to add to his growing form after a poor season blossoming at just the right time. In the centres the tried and tested combo of Allen and Tuilagi will be a major weapon for Tigers if they get the ball in the wet. Allen has been discarded by England on "injury grounds" despite playing this match and Manu needs a strong showing to give evidence that he should start ahead of Lions legend Brian O'Driscoll in Australia. For Quins, Tom Casson will relish the chance to make the starting 12 jersey his own and Lowe to face up against the current incumbent of the 13 shirt for England in the powerful Tuilagi, where many feel Lowe is highly underrated and might have deserved a chance in Argentina while Manu plays down-under.

Matt Tait has made yet another return after injuries and has had a strong season and will look to make his 3rd charge at nailing down an England berth after his rebirth as a FB. He faces Mike Brown who is one of 3 players (plus Foden and Goode) fighting for the England 15 shirt at the moment though Lancaster likes to play him on the wing. He will aim to demonstrate that he is most dangerous at full-back. Goneva has added unpredictability alongside the consistent Morris for Leicester and Williams (guile and hard work) and Monye (size and pace) will have a nice battle against them.

May the best team win

Ah didn't see this. Bugger

Evans looked pretty good last match. I expect Tigers to win but don't think there's that much in it. Frankly, in knock-out rugby form changes so quickly as to be irrelevant

ChequeredJersey wrote:Ah didn't see this. Bugger

I've merged the two

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:Ah didn't see this. Bugger

I've merged the two

Thanks. LT's is better though really, makes mine redundant

ChequeredJersey wrote:

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:Ah didn't see this. Bugger

I've merged the two

Thanks. LT's is better though really, makes mine redundant

LT's is a briiliant writeup in fairness, tough for anyone to compete with!

The rain is sporadic at best here with intermittent sunshine. Not enough rain has fallen to soften the ground any great deal so the going will be hard underfoot. A shower at the wrong time could leave very greasy conditions to contend with.

george doors wrote:As a Quins fan I am reasonably confident we will come away with another win at Welford.
Hope so as I have money on Quins as champs again

All your wins at Welford Road were not against a fully fit Tigers, infact the last time we played with Flood and Youngs as the half backs we won at the Stoop.

nathan wrote:

george doors wrote:As a Quins fan I am reasonably confident we will come away with another win at Welford.
Hope so as I have money on Quins as champs again

All your wins at Welford Road were not against a fully fit Tigers, infact the last time we played with Flood and Youngs as the half backs we won at the Stoop.

While Benny was still injured back in September, otherwise it was pretty much a full team. That day we were well and truly outplayed. In a two horse race we came 4th. However I have not seen Quins play with that same level of intensity since. They were like last seasons team, always there in support, clearing out the breakdown with alacrity. IF they play like that again, we will really struggle. If they cannot, I feel we have enough to win with a little to spare.

LondonTiger wrote:

nathan wrote:

george doors wrote:As a Quins fan I am reasonably confident we will come away with another win at Welford.
Hope so as I have money on Quins as champs again

All your wins at Welford Road were not against a fully fit Tigers, infact the last time we played with Flood and Youngs as the half backs we won at the Stoop.

While Benny was still injured back in September, otherwise it was pretty much a full team. That day we were well and truly outplayed. In a two horse race we came 4th. However I have not seen Quins play with that same level of intensity since. They were like last seasons team, always there in support, clearing out the breakdown with alacrity. IF they play like that again, we will really struggle. If they cannot, I feel we have enough to win with a little to spare.

yeah but i have to cling onto any little stat i can find! lol

for 40 minutes I thought Quins were superb. The Goneva try must have been a kick in the teeth - though we had dragged ourselves right back into it in the last 15 minutes of the second half.

The way we went through the gears in the second half was a sight to behold. Incredible day, ears still ringing from the noise - voice hoars and worst of all forgot to set the record button.

All in all i feel drunk, which bearing in mind I have been tee-total for 5 years is interesting

LondonTiger wrote:for 40 minutes I thought Quins were superb. The Goneva try must have been a kick in the teeth - though we had dragged ourselves right back into it in the last 15 minutes of the second half.

The way we went through the gears in the second half was a sight to behold. Incredible day, ears still ringing from the noise - voice hoars and worst of all forgot to set the record button.

All in all i feel drunk, which bearing in mind I have been tee-total for 5 years is interesting

Good to hear Welford Road at full voice ... for once!!

Yeah, it has been muted this season.

The Quins ball retention in the first half was very good but they just weren't clinical and Croft's tackle was massive. The Goneva try just knocked the stuffing out of Quins and that was the turning point.

I still worry about Flood as he is blowing hot and cold, looking for killer moves early on when the rain was coming down rather letting Allen and Manu soften them up. When we turned to the centres in the second we got the go forward and could bring Tait into play. Kicking was pretty dodgey as well.

Need Slater to come back in if he's fit as we'll need that additional go forward in the final.

What a cracking game and thoroughly enjoyable to watch as a neutral. Whatever you think of Tigers that was an outstanding performance and very few teams would have lived with them in the 2nd half. I did feel Quins were pretty naive at times. In an away semi final you don't muck about kicking for the corner, you take the points and force the home side to chase the game . They did that against Glaws and it cost them the match. Would it have made any difference today? Probably not, but it allowed Tigers back into the match.

Well won Tigers, good luck against Saints. We were outplayed

Well played Tigers.

Most annoying thing about the game was Quins still being clueless. Overplayed our hand all season and did exactly the same on Sat.