OWGR - Week #20

First topic message reminder :

The first win on one of the main tours is without a doubt a very significant milestone in the carreer of a top pro golfer. But it's probably true to say that a second win is also very significant in that it confirms to a good extent that a player really belongs to that top echelon. So, congratulations to Jason Dufner and Nicolas Colsaerts, who achieved exactly that after winning the HP Byron Nelson and the Volvo Match Play tournaments this week, respectively!
Dufner jumps up to #14 in the world, while Colsaerts becomes now well and truly a top 50 player moving all the way to #32 (both being best carreer positions, of course). Among the other noticeble movers this week, Dickey Pride enjoys a nice jump up of around 160 places, well inside the top 200, Jonas Blixt moves close to #150, while Phil Mickelson climbs back inside top 10 (at #9), knocking Martin Kaymer out of the top 10 in the process. It is rather sad, but not unexpected, to see Kaymer's decline gathering pace these days, but hopefully this little negative 'landmak' will provide the necessary proverbial kick in the back side that will be followed by a few good steps forward in the near future...
Otherwise, Graeme McDowell may feel in a way doubly disappointed this week after geting beat in the Volvo Match Play final and moving up only a couple of spots in the rankings after a runner up finish. But the five places climb by Cabrera Bello would feel pretty sweet, as they secure his qualification for the US Open next month. Talking of which, there would've been a few bottles of good old Rioja consumed in the Mechanic's house tonight as he just about hangs on to the 60th spot... Happy days also for Ryo Ishikawa, Robert Rock, Gonzo, Casey, etc. who are getting their tickets to the US Open, as well as to Kevin Na and Robert Karlsson for qualifying for the Open Championship (no such luck for Ben Crane though at this stage).

Well done also to all the other winners this week:
- Jai Choi from Korea, winner of the Totoumi Hamamatsu Open in Japan, moving up to somewhere around #220
- Nick Flanagan from Oz, winner on the NW tour (after a play-off against his fellow countryman Cameron Percy), which should lift him up ~400 places somewhere around #360
- And talking about second wins... Kim Bi-o from Korea winner for the second week in a row on the Korean/OneAsia tours. Both those tournaments benefited (at least in terms of owgr rating value points) from the participation of KT Kim and KJ Choi, respectively. Bi-o will move up further this week, somewhere just around the #200 spot...

The OWGR table after week #20 should look as follows:

1 Rory McIlroy
2 Luke Donald
3 Lee Westwood
4 Bubba Watson
5 Matt Kuchar
6 Hunter Mahan
7 Tiger Woods
8 Steve Stricker
9 Phil Mickelson
10 Justin Rose
-------------------------
11 Martin Kaymer
12 Webb Simpson
13 Adam Scott
14 Jason Dufner
15 Louis Oosthuizen
16 Charl Schwartzel
17 Jason Day
18 Graeme McDowell
19 Dustin Johnson
20 Rickie Fowler
21 Bill Haas
22 Sergio Garcia
23 Keegan Bradley
24 Peter Hanson
25 Brandt Snedeker
26 Nick Watney
27 Zach Johnson
28 Ian Poulter
29 K.J. Choi
30 Bo Van Pelt
31 Martin Laird
32 Nicolas Colsaerts
33 Francesco Molinari
34 Mark Wilson
35 John Senden
36 David Toms
37 Carl Pettersson
38 Thomas Bjorn
39 Bae Sang-moon
40 Paul Lawrie
41 Jim Furyk
42 Alvaro Quiros
43 Simon Dyson
44 Ernie Els
45 Robert Karlsson
46 Fredrik Jacobson
47 Geoff Ogilvy
48 Aaron Baddeley
49 Anders Hansen
50 Kevin Na
-----------------------
51 Ben Crane
52 Kyle Stanley
53 Jonathan Byrd
54 Paul Casey
55 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
56 K.T. Kim
57 Rafael Cabrera Bello
58 Robert Rock
59 Ryo Ishikawa
60 Miguel A Jimenez
---------------------------
61 Retief Goosen
62 Matteo Manassero
63 Y.E. Yang
64 Johnson Wagner
65 Branden Grace
66 Greg Chalmers
67 Charles Howell-III
68 Gary Woodland
69 Ryan Moore
70 Darren Clarke
71 Robert Garrigus
72 George Coetzee
73 Ben Curtis
74 D.A. Points
75 Spencer Levin
76 Hiroyuki Fujita
77 Pablo Larrazabal
78 Robert Allenby
79 Toru Taniguchi
80 Michael Hoey
81 Alexander Noren
82 Ryan Palmer
83 Sean O'Hair
84 Vijay Singh
85 Jeff Overton
86 Joost Luiten
87 John Huh
88 Chez Reavie
89 Brian Davis
90 Padraig Harrington
91 Marcus Fraser
92 Richie Ramsay
93 John Rollins
94 Brendan Jones
95 Jaco Van Zyl
96 Stephen Gallacher
97 Rory Sabbatini
98 Michael Thompson
99 Bernd Wiesberger
100 Harrison Frazar
--------------------------
101 George McNeill
102 David Lynn
103 Thomas Aiken
....

"you heard it here first.... padraig is going to win at wenthworth!"

Win what, as it wont be the golf tournament being played there this week.

has he entered a Charlie Cheswick impersonator contest?

McLaren wrote:
As an aside who was ranked number 2 at year end 2008?

Sergio? Scott? Phil?

i think Sergio was very close to him in early 2009 so im presuming he was number 2 at the end of 2008

yes it was sergio.

What went wrong there?

McLaren wrote:yes it was sergio.

What went wrong there?

Poor little poppet had his heart broken by Greg Normans daughter.........then he forgot how to putt.

McLaren wrote:yes it was sergio.

What went wrong there?

Being a mental weakling prob has something to do with it.

A few owgr projections for some of those currently in contention:

- Rose could move as high as 5th with a win
- Dufner ...6th
- Z. Johnson ...17th
- F. Molinari ...21th
- A Quiros ...24th
- B. Grace ...29th
- H. English, Peter Lawrie, Gillis, Drysdale, Morrison ...top 100 (at various levels between ~55-100)
- Luke is currently T8 and just outside #1 position (needs solo 8th)

Meanwhile, on the "Down" escalator:
Casey, F'dez Castano, Clarke and Karlsson continuing their miserable spring.

PD.... "about" what kind of finish does Branden Grace need to get to around 50-52 or better... I'm asking because I "think" that would probably have him safe to remain in the top-60 with only two weeks left to get thru June 11, or the U.S. Open final top-60 cut date.

(I realize he's also entered in the Memorial and the Scioto CC U.S. Open Sectional...) Don't know about Memphis though...

Brandon Grace needs about 18 points to get into number ~50 territory. I don't think he needs to get that high to stay in the top 60 until after Memphis.

A 5th (14.9 pts) place finish should do the trick for him.

Ryo Ishikawa is extremely vulnerable to quick fall. He is playing Colonial (74 yesterday), Memorial, Memphis US Open and Travelers in the next 4 weeks . He is losing a first and second in his two year resume. I think he falls to the mid 60's Monday if misses the cut today. (but he did birdie the first two holes today).

robo, GPB - for reference, Branden Grace needs ~19.4 pts (only week's amortization accounted for) to move to #50...

Ishikawa already drops to #64 after weekly amortization and on top of that, he is also about to suffer the added 'indignity' of becoming the second best ranked Japanese golfer if Fujita wins in Japan this week (currently leading there by 3 shots).

GPB wrote:Ryo Ishikawa is extremely vulnerable to quick fall.

Of course these guys care about their rankings which generally reflect their quality of play... but in the near term it doesn't matter a whole lot to Ryo though. He's already exempt into the U.S. Open, Open Championship, Bridgestone... and the PGA "effectively" takes all the top-100.

But interesting you note how a max divisor sometimes HURTS guys instead of helping them... and now with the Max down to 52, we'll be seeing it a LOT more often if we pay attention. Early this year when the divisor max made it's final drop from 54 to 52... Ernie Els had 2 big events still carrying decent points drop off his total, dropping him from 56th to 68th in one fell swoop.

Scioto CC

The course that conceived jack, just thought I would say given the debate on the other thread.

A Donald Ross course - also got a mention on the greatest thread - that does not seem to get much of a mention when talking about the US's top courses. I can only think some tweaking by Jack after he became an "architect" has not gone down too well.

princedracula wrote:Ishikawa already drops to #64 after weekly amortization and on top of that, he is also about to suffer the added 'indignity' of becoming the second best ranked Japanese golfer if Fujita wins in Japan this week (currently leading there by 3 shots).

Interesting... I think you have to go back to April-May 2010 to find the last time Ryo was behind another Japanese player in the OWGR. Ikeda nosed ahead of him for a few weeks there... (And of course this doesn't take into account non-Japanese Japan Tour players who have been ahead of Ryo for some time. Korean's K.T. Kim, and Sang Moon Bae... each who've had a year atop the Japan Tour's money list the last two years)

Last year... I kind of understood what might have been going on with Ryo with the Tsunami and all (or ANY Japanese player for that matter). But now it appears it's something else... From many accounts, and supported by what little I've seen from afar... celebrity in Japan is exponentially more crushing than maybe anywhere else in the world... and no doubt Ryo is like Super Rock Star status over there. Maybe the weight of it all (along with expectations) just caught up with him and he needs a little time to regroup. I dunno...

PD... GPB... Thanks for your efforts in responding to my B. Grace question

McLaren wrote: Scioto CC... I can only think some tweaking by Jack after he became an "architect" has not gone down too well.

I haven't heard anything like that... but not being my neck of the woods... guess I wouldn't. I wonder though... This course has a great history of big championships. Perhaps it's just gotten "too small" to be the kind of test the U.S. Open, PGA or even the U.S. Am would be looking for? But it must be doing something right by getting the 2016 Senior PGA.

Final count for this week (no changes):

- Wentworth @64 pts
- Colonial @50 pts
- Japan @16 pts

Ryo misses out again. His slide has become a plunge.

And in the Seniors PGA, Roger Chapman makes his Round 2 turn at -2 for the day, good for a two-shot lead. Impressive.

Some comparables between BMW PGA and The Players and Colonial:

Players Championship
Players = 144 golfers
Highest ranked player in the field = 500
Sum (OWGR Avgs) ~=~ 308

BMWPGA
Players = 150 golfers
Highest ranked players in the field = 23 players above 500
Sum (OWGR Avgs) ~=~ 198

For some comparison

Colonial
Players = 123 golfers
Highest ranked players in the field = 6 players above 500
Sum (OWGR Avgs) ~=~ 181

What is the actual EVR of BWMPGA and what would it need to offer 64 points to the winner?

I think in the past it has been below 60.

Has to have an EVR = 526 to be rated at 64.

I think it would have been at 58 if it were not subsidized. Between 406 and 435, inclusive.

If Luke wins I think his OWGR points average will go above 10, does anyone know the last time that happened to any player?

Pretty sure he was up to 11 at one point

McLaren wrote:If Luke wins I think his OWGR points average will go above 10, does anyone know the last time that happened to any player?

This year, to Luke Donald

http://dps.endavadigital.net/owgr/doc/content/archive/2012/owgr02f2012.pdf

McLaren wrote:If Luke wins I think his OWGR points average will go above 10, does anyone know the last time that happened to any player?

Highest OWGR average obtained (since Jan 2003)

24.36 - Tiger, September 2007
14.14 - Vijay, October 2004
10.75 - Luke, October 2011
9.78 - Rory, May 2012
9.37 - Lee, December 2010
8.36 - Kaymer, November 2010

12.48 - Ernie, October 2004 (#2 at the time)
10.40 - Mickelson, June 2006 (#2 at the time)
9.35 - Furyk, December 2006 (#2 at the time)
9.06 - Goosen, September 2005 (#5 at the time)
8.68 - Sergio, November 2008 (#2 at the time)
8.04 - Stricker, September 2010 (#4 at the time)

There have been some changes to the OWGR formula over the years, so going back to 2003 is not 100% comparable to today. But it's not THAT far off. When I found Goosen's high average since 2003 only put him 5th at the time, but would have been high enough to be #1 in Kaymer's time... I spot checked Goosen's high week...

Week 37 - September 11, 2005

17.52 - Tiger Woods
12.22 - Vijay Singh
10.24 - Phil Mickelson
9.18 - Ernie Els
9.08 - Retief Goosen
7.19 - Sergio Garcia

5-5.99 - 4 players
4-4.99 - 9 players

Meanwhile:
Some owgr futility this week from a surprisingly large number of top players:
1st: McIlroy
18th: McDowell
24th: Hanson
31st: Laird
32nd: Colsaerts
36th: Toms
45th: Karlsson
49th: Hansen
52nd: Stanley
54th: Casey
55th: Gonzo
59th: Ishikawa
61st: Goosen
64th: Wagner
etc.

Some rough calculations:

Rose moves to number 5 with a win, number 6 with a second or solo third.

Assuming Rose wilts tomorrow, Dufner moves to number 6 with a win and number 7 with a second.

Yep... Zach's in pretty good shape too... moves as high as #17 with a win and just outside the top-20 with a 2nd.

Bottom line: Never say never, but it sure looks like a 2-man race for the Colonial... and a 2, possibly 3-man for the BMW. I wouldn't bet the house on it or anything... (especially with my picking record over the last 3 months :-), but I'd lay some pretty good coin that 2 winners tomorrow will come from Donald/Rose and Dufner/Zach. Some pretty decent quality and good form in those 4 guys.

EDIT: Luke looking a little shaky, and Lawrie charging in the final round... might be a good thing nobody took me up on my bet. :-)

I think first or second will cement Justin Rose's Ryder Cup place, joining Donald, Westwood and McIlroy as bankers. Lots to gain Sunday for Paul Lawrie, Poulter, Kaymer and Franny M also. Team Espana, R C-B, Alvaro and Sergio all wasted opportunities Saturday.

And even a second place finish (I think it'll be a win) will push Zach above Stricker on the US Team. Wonder if his missed cut this week spells the end for David Toms's RC career? As a player anyway, Captain possibly in 2014.
Furyk furiously making up lost ground!

Solo 7th or better and Zach passes Stricker in the standings. That looks pretty definite.

Bo Van Pelt and Furyk can get in the middle of RC Contention with a solid finish tomorrow.

Solo Second place for BVP and he actually passes Stricker as well.

Stricker said he was going to play less this year (and he is), but I wonder if he sees his name dropping down the RC standings I wonder if he will change his mind.

Of course Stricker has his own little tractor annuity coming up in about 6 weeks.

What's the company slogan... "NOTHING RUNS LIKE A DEERE"?

Maybe it should be modified to: NOTHING RUNS [Steve Strickers rankings up] LIKE A DEERE".

princedracula wrote:Ishikawa already drops to #64 after weekly amortization and on top of that, he is also about to suffer the added 'indignity' of becoming the second best ranked Japanese golfer if Fujita wins in Japan this week (currently leading there by 3 shots).

Fujita did win in Japan but I don't think it is enough to get himself into top 60. He is playing the tournament in Japan next week, he will need another good finish to clinch a spot in the top 60 for the second deadline date.

GPB wrote:Fujita did win in Japan but I don't think it is enough to get himself into top 60. He is playing the tournament in Japan next week, he will need another good finish to clinch a spot in the top 60 for the second deadline date.

I think you're right... If 16 is correct... then that should get him to about #66, but that's before considering anybody else from the BMW or Colonial. And as you pointed out earlier... Fujita "just" ahead of Ryo now... 2.220 to 2.214 ? (back of napkin calculation)