The Race To Number One

Can Djokovic hold onto the number one spot? Can Nadal take it back? Can Federer get back to number one and break Sampras's record? Does anyone else have a chance? Who will be the number one player for 2012.

To get a clearer picture it's a good idea to look at the race points. That is the total number of points earnt this year. Whoever has gained the most points at the end of the year will be the 2012 number one. So far the top ten is as follows (no RG points yet).

Djokovic 4930
Nadal 4760
Federer 4235
Ferrer 2600
Berdych 2545
Murray 2250
Del Potro 2230
Almagro 1915
Tipsarevic 1840
Tsonga 1520

http://live-tennis.eu/race

I was very surprised at how close the top three are.

I guess it depends on whether we're talking about race to YE ranking (which I guess you are) or race to Federer potentially getting to #1 at some point by end of USO as this is interesting also.

For 2012, I think it'll be a tightly fought match between Nadal and Djokovic for YE ranking and RG may well prove who goes on to succeed. For Federer, he may get to #1 before then but needs a good run at RG where he's defending 1200 points. I'd say his chance is 50/50 ish for getting to #1.

I've discussed this topic @ length with a number of posters, so a good thread!

As lydian says, if it's YE, then Nadal & Djokovic are the main contenders.

If we mean who might be able to grab No.1 off Djokovic, then it will really come down to RG & Wimbledon (at least for Fed & perhaps Nadal to a lesser extent) and Canada & Cinci for Djokovic.

RG is the one tournament where Djoko can really gain some massive points, on the contrary Fed has some massive points to defend from now on except for GS, so if Fed win one of them and do fairly good in other ones like a final an a semi-final then most likely he gets his no.1 ranking.

For Nole , he has to defend all his slams to retain the ranking if so he holds it.

For Rafa, wait for a blip in Nole's form and take advantage of any point he loses.

So Andy Murray is 7th best so far this season in terms of points accumulated, and has about half the points of the top three. Considering the balls are playing more normally compared to last year at Roland Garros, I suspect following Roland Garros the overall positions will be similar, except the gap will be wider.

It emphasises the importance for Murray of having a good grass court season, and following that a good hard court season.

This is of course about the race to the year end number 1. That is historically the most important stat.

These figures have nothing to do with "defending" points. Everyone starts with zero points at the beginning of the year and everyone only has points to gain when they enter a tournament. In lots of ways it's a more simple way of looking at the ranking. I suppose the ATP stopped showing it on their site as some found it confusing as obviously it can't be used for seeding.


What these figures show is that Federer is very much in contention. In fact the top three are so close at the top they are virtually tied. Nadal is only 170 points behind Djokovic and Federer trails by 695 points. 695 points is nothing at this stage of the year!

Wimbledon -FO will have a big say in it, if Fed can win his beloved Wimby crown he is well on course for it.

I was a bit surprised when Fed failed to make even the S-F at Wimbledon in 2010 and even more surprised when he exited at the QF stage last year. This year's SW19 is his big - and perhaps only - chance to make an impact on the top positions. After the French, Nole has 4,000 points to defend from the two remainsing GS and it could be that he'll end up third in Setember with Rafa first and Rog second.

I agree invisiblecoolers, RG-Wimbledon will have a big impact on who gets to No.1 position in the longer term (since things are so close right now). In many ways that's not surprising, because you got 3, 000 points awarded during the clay court season prior to RG (more if you include Barcelona) then you add in the roughly 4, 500+ for the Aussie Open plus hard cout @Dubai, IW & Miami then the potential 4, 000 for RG and Wimbledon can usually have a crucial impact (coupled with Canada & Cinci) over who ends up YE No.1, more so for Djokovic and Nadal who have typically done worse @ post USO than Federer.

I agree with other posters, Wimbledon is crucial to Federer's chances of challenging for the top spot. Unfortunately we'll only know once he gets there because even his runner up place @ RG last year didn't give us the impression he'd exit @ the QF stage!

I think Djokovic is likely to be year end no 1 because after Wimbledon it is mostly hard courts and Djokovic is the best. I can't see Nadal doing it, but he is in with a chance.

Federer needs to prove he can beat his 2 main rivals at least half the time, which I am dubious about.

Anyone else has to win FO or Wimbledon just to be in the race.