ATP race

Looking at the ATP race so far you have:
http://live-tennis.eu/race

Federer is in 4th on 810 pts. Some 600 pts from Murray, and 1200 off Djokovic.
He now has an important phase coming up pre-RG where he's defending IW, Dubai and Madrid - 2500 pts.
We know he cant stay strong forever...but given his start so far, where do you see him finishing by YE?
I reckon on around 6000 pts which should see him come in around 5th - any reason to suspect he could fall lower?

To get to 6000 he needs another 5200...so 1xQF and 2xSF at the remaining slams will give 1800ish...then 4 x SFs (on average) at Masters and 3 x QFs at the others another 900ish.
That's 2700...so where's the other 2500 coming from? When you look at it like this you can see it wouldn't take much of a slip to go down to 5000 or 4000 YE pts...ie. down to 8th.

What's your feeling on his season to come. I think this is his last year in top 10. I fact I think its his last full year period...

Possibly, I dunno.

He only lost in the 5th at the last Slam semi so that side's ok, maybe we're all reading too much into the perfunctory Rotterdam effort. Still, all has to end sometime fairly soon so who knows?

As for top 10, he stays in that as long as he feels like playing. Seriously, there is no way there will be 10 better players than him even if he plays on for another 4 years. I think the key you're alluding to is whether he can be bothered.

Quite. His SA trip hints at other ambassador-type activities being important to him. All sportstars at some point either want to get out of the game altogether or 'go upstairs'. I cant see Fed living a quiet life in anonymity, I think he'll always be vocal on how tennis can run, plus his role model to charities and the like.

He can stay top 10 as long as the motivation is there for sure...Agassi was right up there pretty much up to the end at 36 years old. Personally it would be great to see another Nadal-Federer final but its getting very unlikely to happen now...and to think they were 1-2 inches short of that happening at USO11. For such a great rivalry (or not) they haven't actually played much in the past few seasons for 2 players solidly in the top 4. That said, if Nadal is #5 seed now, we may see it happening at QFs in various events.

His form at IW/Miami will be interesting to see but I really do think he'll just peak for slams now...and get to semis at best - which is living up to his ranking. Beyond that I don't really know what keeps him swinging the racquet in anger anymore...actually I do, he still loves the game as much as he did as a 10 year old. If anyone has lived 'the dream', Federer is one of them...and I suspect continues to feel like he's doing so.

Not sure if he cares for the rankings. Falling out of Top 4 makes him even more of a dangerous floater.

I'm not sure TMF would take too kindly to being called a floater LF

bogbrush wrote:As for top 10, he stays in that as long as he feels like playing.

This.

When we consider that the results of Almagro and Gasquet have got in the top 10 recently, there's no way Fed has dropped or is dropping to that level. Retirement will come before that happens.

lydian wrote:I'm not sure TMF would take too kindly to being called a floater LF

Floater generates a very nasty image, so will become a dangerous player in the early rounds.

Well I can't agree with lydian, I don't see fed holding murray off for the #2 ranking but I would be surprised to see him fall any lower than 4 this year. If he decides to comeback next season I still think he will finish in the top 5 or 6 top guys. The man did just reach the semis in the AO where he lost in 5 sets and is not that far removed from his last slam. That being said he is a step slower and most importantly as others have noted prone to lack of focus at times on the court. He can't possibly as hungry today for success as he was 5 or 6 years ago.

I can see him finishing the year about 4th, or about 3rd if Rafa has any more injuries...maybe?

I'd be very surprised if he was out of the top 4 this year. He's still favourite at Wimbledon for me and he'll garner good points on the clay. Will finish the year at 3 or 4 I think depending on how strong Rafa returns.

He has always attached great importance to qualifying for the WTF and - barring a disastrous combination of results - he will do so once again, comfortably, this year. I believe he already holds the record for most consecutive appearances of all active players (maybe even past players too .....?).

This season is looking to be pretty selective as regards total events played and I think we will then see much much less of him on the tour in 2014.

There is little if anything to aim for in terms of targets/records. Olympics in Rio is simply not feasible and other aspects of his life are now assuming greater priority. The curtain call beckons ........

@Lags...

WTF Appearances - 2002-2012 (11 years, 6 titles)

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Roger-Federer.aspx?t=pa&y=0&m=s&e=605#

Lendl has 12 appearances 1981-1991 (including Jan and Dec 1986). Sampras has 11 appearances (1991-2000). Lendl and Sampras both have 5 titles.

He [Federer] has the best record currently (39-7) of all players @WTF.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Finals/2012/About/Heritage.aspx

Rio is still a possibility, and may make it an interesting outing.

the older he gets, the harder it is to predict as there is a bigger chance of something going wrong. nevertheless, i would guess he will remain in top four. he seems sufficiently serious about playing to stay ahead of the likes of ferrer or delpo or tsonga.

Good research again laverfan. Yes it is an amazing accomplishment to even play in that many WTFs since just qualifying requires a top 8 finish. I personally think Federer himself is happy with where his game is at and that will keep him motivated enough to play at a high level.