What are the respective gameplans for the big match?

Thinking on the big semi I think that both players are so familiar with each other that we won't see many surprises. Both have tried and true game plans for playing their big rival after 30 matches on the ATP tour.

Federer: Use the short angled slice backhand to move Novak up the court on his backhand and then pass him or hit flat and hard to Novak's forehand corner. Watch for short angled slice cross court from fed then run and clobber a flat forehand cross court to Novak's forehand. This play gets Novak to move up on fed's terms and Novak's two hander is less adept with the short low ball he has to run up to. That will probably get Novak to take one hand off and chip the ball back to fed. Fed then runs around and drives it flat and early at Novak's forehand or passes Novak when he comes up. Look for Roger to continue to come over more of his backhand returns particularly on second serve. Find opportunities to get to net and shorten points and also try to use the slice backhand and drop shots to get Novak off of the baseline and up into the forecourt on Roger's terms.

Djokovic: Make Roger hit a lot of backhands. If Roger beats you you want him to beat you with the backhand. So Novak is going to go inside out and cross court with his backhand. And when he goes up the line with the backhand or cross court with the forehand it better be good when it goes to Roger's forehand. He does not want the dominate pattern to be cross court forehand to cross court forehand. He can win points that way but that doesn't maximize his chances. Novak is one of the few guys that can actually go after Roger's second serve, which is one of the best in the business he will have to do that regularly. Especially, using the hard, deep, return right back into the middle of the court right at the server. The best and safest return against fed. Give him no time and no angle with the return ball. Generally, direct the returns to Roger's backhand side to try to defeat Roger playing one two punch tennis with the serve. Punish Roger with the down the line backhand when Roger sells out to run around the forehand.

In short nothing is really new in the playbook. Both players will try to play the match by forcing their opponent to beat them with their relative weaknesses and not strengths. Djoko will work the backhand over and try to stay way from cross court forehand to cross court forehand and will attempt to direct returns and serves to rogers backhand. And Roger will try to use variety to draw Novak in and to get to the net himself. The dominate pattern of attack for Roger will be short angled slice backhand to Novak's backhand trying to get him up in the court and to get him to take one hand off the racquet followed by big flat cross court forehand.

My predictions, Novak in 4 relatively routine sets. I don't think Roger likes the slower conditions this week and I think Novak's last win is more impressive, sometimes near escapes have away of energizing your team and giving a sense of belief. Novak has to have that necessary belief at this point after 4 matches points saved and 4-2 down in the 4th set breaker with his life on the line. Roger frankly I dont think wins if Del Po doesn't come up gimpy.

You do not mention Federer's inside-out FH deep to the Djokovic BH corner that sometimes frustrates Djokovic.

True laverfan, but that is just generally a dominant pattern overral on the tour not specific to Djokovic. I mean fed is going to hit his inside out forehand a great deal against any opponent. I was thinking more in line with what tactics would be a bit more particular to the matchup. But yes, Fed will definetly use inside out forehand to Djoko backhand as that is a staple of his attack. But I actually think he gets less joy from that sequence against Novak than other players because Novak covers the backhand corner wide so well and can hit screaming cross court backhands back at you all day long, or change the direction up the line to keep getting pinned in that corner. It is an important play against any opponent but I actually think it pays less dividends for fed against Djoko compared to most other players.

Would love to see a good competitive match of Tennis from these two, rather than a one-sided battle of attrition.

I don't think it will be a battle of attrition. Fed's style usually brings out the attacker in Novak. Fed forces the action and Novak isn't one to back down. So I think we will see a lot of aggressive shot making from both. And i think that will be the downfall of fed as I forsee a high error count for him which leads directly to a loss. But I could be wrong, if the serve is really working for Fed that could change the whole dynamic as Novak generally will give you at least a few looks at his serve over the course of a long match. If Fed is having one of those on fire serving displays that is about the only thing i could see changing the tide on this particular surface and conditions.

What I have seen in this tournament from Federer is that he is pretty adept at coming back from behind.. and so Novak will not be able to count too many chickens if he gets off to a good start.. I frankly believe it will be a very competitive match Roger seems to have a fire in his belly which I havent seen for a while. Novak has had a few hiccups in this Tournament so its anyone´s guess. A point for Novak to remember is that Roger will not let him off the hook like Seppi and Tsonga did.

Novak:
1. The stock in trade drills down the lines have to be 100%.
2. High 1st serve % as Federer is a very adept returner.
3. Inside-out FH has to be firing.
4. High use of short angled shots to pull Fed wide.
5. Pepper the BH with high spin (thats not Novak's forte to be honest though)
6. Make Fed run, run and run!

Federer:
1. High % 1st serves - this is absolutely critical.
2. Ultra-aggressive...take the ball early, taking time away for Novaks big wind ups.
3. Aggressive returns...take the net position and rush Novak.
4. Play to Novak's FH with power to break it down.
5. Drop-shot...Novak isnt as good moving forward to play a shot as side to side.
6. Use alots of variety, dont give Novak a groove to settle into.

Federer served below 60% against Delpo, which he will definitely improve. From ad court, wide serve would be predominant, whereas from the deuce, it would be a mixture. He will try to induce more errors from Djokovic forehand than backhand. He will avoid feeding pace to Djokovic and use slice a bit more. Djokovic will run him from side to side, but use of drop shot might be less than against others. He might try to prolong the rallies to draw impatience from Federer. In the end, if Federer falls, it might be due to the larger count of unforced errors.

Last year the balls and court conditions (less damp) were relatively more suited to Fed so that could be a (slight) disadvantage this year.

I'm pretty skeptical that it will be '4 routine sets' socal. It depends on a number of factors:

a) If Fed gets above 60% first serve, I don't think Djokovic will win.
b) What sort of Federer shows up, will it be the Federer of Rome, who only realised he was playing Djokovic late in the second set or the Federer who has been beating nearly everyone before him? We simply won't know until they play.
c) Djoko may have self belief but he surely had more last year? He was on that amazing streak having lost to no one and crucially beaten Fed 3 times, not once like this year. I think this somewhat negates your conclusion that Novak will have the belief he can win out eventually. This was more true last year and don't forget, Fed was down 2 sets against Delpo and beat him, the same is true for him.
d) Provided Fed serves well, also key will be how much pressure he can apply to Djoko's serve and how many break points he can create because the more he creates, the more belief it will create that he can beat Djokovic.It's not necessary he converts that many, he converted the same number as Djokovic last year (4) and still beat him. The crucial difference is Fed created 25, double Novak's 13.

I do however agree Djokovic will win. I'm undecided about how many sets because as I said above, it depends on which Federer shows up. However, it's a grand slam and we all know Fed raises his level for these occasions (as he had to against Delpo) and so I suspect we will see 5 sets, with at least one tie breaker and another 2 being very close. I think it will be close though, that's where I disagree somewhat and for that reason, there is room for an upset. After all, hasn't Djokovic beaten Fed twice on the trot @ the USO when facing 2 match points? It would be sweet justice for Fed to dismiss Novak's dream of winning 4 in a row this year knowingly and last year, unknowingly, twice in a row (just like Djokovic has beaten Fed twice in a row). Maybe it's what the tennis god's are writing....or I'm a deluded Fed fan....but the excitement of tomorrow is getting to me now!

Lman

I wouldn´t put money on it. Roger has more experience of RG and for me a better clay court player than Novak.. I think its too close to call.
(Now that is the opinion of a non-Federer fan deluded or otherwise)

Henman Bill wrote:Last year the balls and court conditions (less damp) were relatively more suited to Fed so that could be a (slight) disadvantage this year.

I think you've nailed it there.

It is strange as I'm torn, I think Djokovic stands a reasonable chance of beating Nadal in a final, however I'd rather Fed wins because of course Im a Fed fan but also because it means Fed stands an even better chance of winning the No.1 spot in the next 3 1/2 months.

I have a feeling it will be close too, last year's match was and I don't really feel tomorrow will be a re-run of the Rome match as I suspect socal thinks. Rome is a tournaments Fed has never won and and only reached 2 finals. RG he has won and made 4 other finals. However, we will see. If Djokovic does win easily, I think he would be slight favourite to beat Nadal, but I won't get ahead of myself just yet! Fed has done incredibly well to even put himself in contention for the final of his weakest slam and done a good job of protecting his points. As long as he keeps it up, I'd rather he beats Djokovic at Wimbledon then here (although if he can beat him at both Id love that too)!

However.. I have to believe and I do.. that Rafa is the one to beat.

@ RG, he nearly always is Haddie! Only ever beaten once, an impressive record, without a doubt.

Hope so Lmann would like to see him make it lucky seven and have another feather in his cap.. coz cant help thinking that he isn´t gonna get many more chances not with those knees

luciusmann wrote:It is strange as I'm torn, I think Djokovic stands a reasonable chance of beating Nadal in a final, however I'd rather Fed wins because of course Im a Fed fan but also because it means Fed stands an even better chance of winning the No.1 spot in the next 3 1/2 months.

I have a feeling it will be close too, last year's match was and I don't really feel tomorrow will be a re-run of the Rome match as I suspect socal thinks. Rome is a tournaments Fed has never won and and only reached 2 finals. RG he has won and made 4 other finals. However, we will see. If Djokovic does win easily, I think he would be slight favourite to beat Nadal, but I won't get ahead of myself just yet! Fed has done incredibly well to even put himself in contention for the final of his weakest slam and done a good job of protecting his points. As long as he keeps it up, I'd rather he beats Djokovic at Wimbledon then here (although if he can beat him at both Id love that too)!

My thoughts too, though I never have the slightest calculation except to hope for the best result for Federer.

Does anybody know if the Men's semi final matches will be shown live on the BBC website tomorrow?

Such a distraction might be tempting from work

I think the competitiveness of this match depends on how comfortable Federer feels with his timing. If he is shanking and mistiming, like he was in Rome and for much of this tournament, then I think it will be routine str8 sets for Nole. If Federer is striking the ball cleanly then it will be a close match. Of course the serve will be v important.

I thought Federer's groundies were a lot better in sets 3,4 and 5 against DP. He was hitting the ball with real venom.

The weather may also play its part. It'll be very tough for Fed to hit through Novak in damp, cool conditions.

I agree on the damp can cool conditions aspect of it. If the conditions we have seen in the second week continue it will be much more difficult for fed. I disagree with Haddie, despite Roger's grandslam on clay and multiple RG finals I do not think Roger is currently a better clay court player than Djokovic. Over his career he is much more accomplished having the slam in his resume but over the last couple of seasons would you say Roger is the better clay courter I wouldn't and the results speak to that.

Lucius, I did state that if Fed served at a high percentage it could change the dynamic. I mean in a big match the guy who hits a higher percentage of first serves has a distinct advantage. But I don't think Fed can afford on these slow conditions and against Novak of being anything but aggressive on his first serve. So he has a bit of a catch 22, he has to hit both a high percentage of first serves and he needs aggressive first serves that give him plenty of free points. I think Fed is the guy who has to shorten the points for success and he has to hit through a great returner and retriever on slowed and cooler conditions. That is the basis of my predictions lucius. I mean I don't doubt Fed has the game to win, but I think Djoko should win.

We are on agreement that Djokovic will win socal. Where we disagree is the manner of that victory. I agree that it is more than possible that it could be a Djoko win in 4 routine sets. I just think it's improbable. Where these two have played in grand slams lately (3 times in 2011: Aussie Open, RG & USO), the matches and sets were anything but routine, even when Djokovic won in straight sets in the Aussie Open, they were 3 tight sets, not routine though. Hence my conclusion that it won't be routine. Given the conditions I'd say it's more likely it could stretch to 5 sets, after all, that's what's happened to Djokovic in his last two matches. Tomorrow is also a test of Fed's form in some respects, so for his sake, I do hope he gives us 5 sets (even if he loses) because it suggests he can still challenge Djokovic, obviously a win is better but beating Djokovic last year in the same tournament didn't prove much in any case so I don't want to read too much into things if he loses either (which is often tempting post match).

Yet luciusmann, you say you reckon Roger will win if he serves above 60%?
I'd say that should be a probability.

It is forecasted to be incredibly windy tomorrow, is that likely to be another disadvantage to Fed?

Arghh thats bad news.

Dammit, if Fed wins this he really has done it uphill.

Having said that, IMHO the effects of the conditions are a little overstated.

Forecast is 15 mph winds tomorrow...dropping to 11 later on. By time Fed gets on it should be stiller. And it's lower than today which was 23 mph.

whats the order of play?

is rain forecast?

Intermittent emancipator...both camps will get chances to evaluate how it's going with their coaches you feel. I don't like rain for that, it spoils any momentum gained...I like a match to start and finish in one go for that reason. Just ask Henman too!

The second semi may be at a disadvantage in that case; it could spill over to saturday

Possibly...and Nadal never finishes matches quickly even if 3 bagels.
This is forecast: http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/48.856614,2.352222

You would think they'd start at 11am to ensure a finish.

Federer should back himself and if his game clicks he wins, Djoko on the other hand just keep the game style that won him the past few meetings.

That link says showers and 70% chance of rain.

Play is due to start at 1pm local time. If the Ferrer_Rafa match goes to five sets there is no way that Fed-Novak will finish their match tomrw. Even if it goes to four competitive sets, given how slow Rafa plays and the fact that the rallies will be super long, I'd expect it to be at least a 4 hour match. That would leave Novak-Roger four hrs to complete their match (It'll probably be pretty dark by 9pm). That's if there is no rain delay.

Stupid scheduling again. They could have brought the matches a couple of hours earlier to ensure a one day finish.



emancipator

Agree, the French do this every year. And even when they start play at 11am in the early rounds too many matches spill over...this doesn't happen anywhere near as much as Wimbers and yet they start later!

Respective gameplans
Federer: Shank and charge.
Djokovic: Retrieve, grind and mutiple ball bounce.
Nadal: Moonball.
Ferrer: Keep running until Nadal wins.

Emanc.... Here's another link.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/paris/623/daily-weather-forecast/623?day=2
Says 21c and 1.5 hrs of rain likely.

Sunday looks dreadful...18c and 4 hrs of rain

If its bad they may switch Fed/Djokovic to Lenglen.

Could be odd, though, I suspect the French would flee Chatrier on that basis!

Probably, it's a bigger draw of the two no doubt...Ferrer is no media phenom, plus the match isn't expected to be as competitive I guess. Lord knows how they would sort the tickets out though.

Just read what McEnroe said to Ferrer's chances tomorrow...

"He's a middleweight playing against heavyweights" summed up the American.

Ferrer's pre-match comments?

"In Rome it was different, because I had opportunities to win a set, but he played extremely well," he said.

"I think you can win a set against Rafa, but there is a difference between winning a set and winning a match. Winning a match against Rafa is almost impossible. He is in such good shape."

He doesn't sound too confident!

lydian wrote:Ferrer ... doesn't sound too confident!

He probably sneaked a look at Nadal's record: Win-loss = 50-1 with six titles.

Lol, scary numbers NS. Ferrer is staring up at Mt. Everest.

Fighting talk from Federer, and confirms he's physically fine and ready to go 5 sets.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-sport/tennis-titans-stand-in-djokovics-way-20120607-1zxv2.html

lydian wrote:Ferrer's pre-match comments?

"In Rome it was different, because I had opportunities to win a set, but he played extremely well," he said.

"I think you can win a set against Rafa, but there is a difference between winning a set and winning a match. Winning a match against Rafa is almost impossible. He is in such good shape."

He doesn't sound too confident!

That's just pathetic.

Even if he's not feeling confident he should never voice such thoughts in public. It's not like playing the underdog role relieves him of any additional pressure. No one expects him to win anyway.

It would have been far better for him to say something like 'I'm playing great, the best I've ever played, I believe I have a decent chance. Rafa is a great champion but no one is unbeatable...etc'.

At least that would've made Rafa think.

Now Rafa knows that even his opponent doesn't believe he has a realistic chance. Even if the going gets tough he'll just need to hang in there 'cause the other guy aint got what it takes.



emancipator

I remember last year, Nadal and his camp sat watching Fed and Djoko struggle through the gloaming - the same will no doubt happen this year unless they put Fed/Djoko on Lenglen pretty sharpish.

They are likely to want to avoid doing that at all costs because the showpiece Court will empty.

But if the Fed/Djoko SF were to spill over to Saturday that would be absurd.

At this moment in time Djokovic is not looking comfortable on the baseline. Infact I would go as far as to say he isn't looking comfortable coming in behind his shots. Djokovic at the moment is quite content in sticking it out in wasteful rallies. What I won't deny is that when it has mattered he has come good and upped the tempo. For me if he played with the urgency showed in the Seppi and Tsonga match he might have gotten through the latter rounds with greater ease. His BH DTL has not let him down. He needs to up his performance by about 30%.

Federer at the moment has looked shakey. The confusion lies in what energy he has invested in the earlier rounds. It's not like he has put in poor performances, just average matches against well average players. Against Del Potro he was pushed. The first 2 sets he was looping the ball in and giving Delpo opportunity after opportunity to hit through him. He didn't widen the court enough. Federer made a slight mistake in thinking in the prior round to Goffin that Del Potro would chuck up some errors. Had Delpo not been injured, maybe the outcome may have been slightly different. What Federer did so well was close the match out. He got the FH working and the BH working too.

What Djokovic needs to be careful of like last year was not give Federer any rythym to settle. Despite their encounter in Rome recently Federer gifted that match. Djokovic won I know, but it was a far less convincing performance by Federer that day given how well he played in the matches prior to that. I think Federer may use the slice to pin Djokovic on the baseline and see if he can draw the aggression out of Djokovic.

Fed needs 2 things to win:

1. Serve 65-70%
2. Control his hand not to kick balls all over the stadium.

We can all see that slowly the power of FH/BH is diminishing from month to month, but on RG he has lost the control of hitting too, sending balls 2-3 meters from base or side line, or totally misfiring balls.

Good posts Lk but I disagree in one respect that Federer will actually try to get Novak off of the baseline and get him up in the court and out wide a grea deal. I think Fed should use the slice to set up his forehand and to pull Novak up to net. Of course, first serve percentage is huge in every big match. I think weather plays a huge role here if it is sunny I think that can quicken the pace. If its cold, damp, and heavy I think it favors Djokovic who plays a little safer. I am not basing my predictions merely on Rome. Over the last two seasons Novak has been better on clay. He needs this win a lot more than Roger as well and has the memories of last year. I think all these things are playing in his mind and he will bring it from start to finish. Where as I think Fed isn't necessarily, subconsciously dying to play Nadal in the final.

Nore Staat wrote:Respective gameplans
Federer: Shank and charge.
Djokovic: Retrieve, grind and mutiple ball bounce.
Nadal: Moonball.
Ferrer: Keep running until Nadal wins.

hahahha, why should Ferrer run till Nadal wins , your crazy NS.