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JWC - As it stands

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Post by LondonTiger Fri 08 Jun 2012, 9:46 pm

The method of ranking teams for the knock-out stages:

1st Seed Pool winner with most competition points
2nd Seed Pool winner with 2nd most competition points
3rd Seed Pool winner with 3rd most competition points
4th Seed Pool second place with most competition points
5th Seed Pool second place with 2nd most competition points
6th Seed Pool second place with 3rd most competition points
7th Seed Pool third place with most competition points
8th Seed Pool third place with 2nd most competition points
9th Seed Pool third place with 3rd most competition points
10th Seed Pool fourth place with most competition points
11th Seed Pool fourth place with 2nd most competition points
12th Seed Pool fourth place with 3rd most competition points

And knock-out matches arranged as follows:

For Rankings 9 - 12
10th Seed v 11th Seed
9th Seed v 12th Seed

For Rankings 5 - 8
6th Seed v 7th Seed
5th Seed v 8th Seed

Semi Finals
2nd Seed v 3rd Seed
1st Seed v 4th Seed


How teams with the same points are separated:

(i) the Team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its Pool Matches shall be the higher ranked;
(ii) the Team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its Pool Matches shall be the higher ranked;
(iii) the Team which has scored most points in all its Pool Matches shall be the higher ranked;
(iv) the Team which has scored most tries in all its Pool Matches shall be the higher ranked; and
(v) if none of the above produce a result, then it will be resolved with a toss of a coin.

The current rankings are:

1) England 9pts +64 diff
2) Wales 9pts +29 diff
3) Argentina 8pts +15 diff
4) New Zealand 6pts +60 diff
5) South Africa 6pts +45 diff
6) France 6pts -2 diff
7) Australia 5pts + 43 diff
8) Ireland 5pts -1 diff
9) Fiji 4pts -14 diff
10) Scotland 1pt -56diff
11) Samoa 0pts -75 diff
12) Italy 0pts -108pts

Of course a lot can change:

Pool A:
Wales should beat Samoa securing a TBP finishing on 14pts
New Zealand should beat Fiji securing a TBP and barring miracles the 4th seed spot

Pool B:
The right set of results could see England, SA and Ireland all on 10pts with one win against each other (first tie breaker within the group). This scenario would probably be enough to see England go through to face the winners of Pool C - unless Ireland score a huge number against Italy.
Otherwise a draw or a win for England vs SA will see them top the group. A TBP win would probably see them as top seeds and a semi with NZ.
A TBP win for SA would see them top the group.
A TBP win for Ireland AND a win for SA by >7pts would see Ireland win the group, level on points with SA but having won the fixture between the two.

Pool C:
If Argentina beat Scotland they win the group. Even a draw is enough if France cannot secure a TBP win over Australia. An LBP would be enough if Australia beat France without a TBP.
Australia and France will be hoping that Scotland can do them a favour. If so winner takes all.


All clear as mud Very Happy

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Post by Morgannwg Fri 08 Jun 2012, 9:56 pm

If Ire, Eng and SA each finish on 10 points does that mean NZ can finish ranked 3rd despite perhaps not topping their pool?

Thanks for posting this btw. It's a big help!
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Post by HammerofThunor Fri 08 Jun 2012, 9:57 pm

No. The top 3 seeds are the pool toppers. Same as the HEC

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Post by Morgannwg Fri 08 Jun 2012, 10:00 pm

Riiiighhtt. I think Wales can get more points from Samoa than England would against South Africa. Unless England thrash SA but I don't think they will. If Wales are unchanged it could be another 60 pointer for poor old Samoa. That would likely see Wales finish top seeds to face the 4th seed (NZ).
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Post by LondonTiger Fri 08 Jun 2012, 10:03 pm

Morgannwg wrote:Riiiighhtt. I think Wales can get more points from Samoa than England would against South Africa. Unless England thrash SA but I don't think they will. If Wales are unchanged it could be another 60 pointer for poor old Samoa. That would likely see Wales finish top seeds to face the 4th seed (NZ).

That is the most likely outcome. A TBP win for England over SA could "save" Wales from that fate as England have a far superior points differnece atm. Thing is an SA win is just as likely as an England TBP win.


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Post by WWosprey Fri 08 Jun 2012, 10:21 pm

Who would have thought at the start that it could be England and Wales 1 and 2 seeds NH rugby is looking good.

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Post by HammerofThunor Fri 08 Jun 2012, 10:25 pm

Well Wales would be a surprise (especially in the pool with New Zealand) but England have been about the second best for all but one of the last 4 years. Of course this means little as there is almost a 100% turnover of players every 2 years

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Post by welliamwibb Fri 08 Jun 2012, 10:38 pm

I think England under 20's would beat Wales under 20's if the weather is half decent, but I could be wrong!

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Post by TycroesOsprey Fri 08 Jun 2012, 11:15 pm

To be fair this is the strongest side we have sent out to a junior RWC. Players like Morgan, Walker, Prydie etc have all got good reginal experience, Prydie already has a few caps and couple of tries for the senior side. However if we face the Blacks in the semi and its a nice day, well lets just say it could be a difficult day at the office.

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Post by alcoombe Fri 08 Jun 2012, 11:21 pm

LondonTiger wrote:How teams with the same points are separated:

(i) the Team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its Pool Matches shall be the higher ranked;
(ii) the Team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its Pool Matches shall be the higher ranked;
(iii) the Team which has scored most points in all its Pool Matches shall be the higher ranked;
(iv) the Team which has scored most tries in all its Pool Matches shall be the higher ranked; and
(v) if none of the above produce a result, then it will be resolved with a toss of a coin.


That's the case for seeding after the pool stages, but in terms of topping the pool the additional and first criteria is:

(i) the winner of the Match in which the two tied Teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked

This could become relevant in England, Ireland & SA's pool. If England lose to SA the LBP & TBP variations between them and in Ireland's game with Italy could put all three of them level on points, which would make it go to points scored F/A, or it could put just 2 of them level, which would make it go to head to head. In that case, if England & SA are level SA go through, if Ireland & SA are level Ireland go through. If England & Ireland are level SA would also be level or have an extra point.


http://www.irb.com/jwc/rules/index.html

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Post by monwy Sat 09 Jun 2012, 12:04 am

I'd be far from surprised to see the loss to Wales firing NZ up and them going on to win the tournament again.

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Post by Morgannwg Sat 09 Jun 2012, 1:35 am

It would take some team to beat NZ twice. History tells us that the SH always perform in the KO stages of the JWC, they perform 10 times better if they are 'wounded.' Wales have the experience and class to do it, I believe so anyway.
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Post by Biltong Sat 09 Jun 2012, 2:00 am

Well to be honest watching SA yesterday vs Italy was utterly frustrating, it is like watching someone wlak through mud, their decision making is still poor, I don't lnow how many tries went begging due to the last pass not being executed.

Selfish play and poor skills has been their downfall.

Even against Italy their colloctive commitment to the rucks have been poor

I cannot see them beat England
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