Has grass become Federer's worst surface?

It would have been inconceivable to think it 3 years ago but for me I actually feel less and less confident watching him on the surface, I started to think it after he lost to Hewitt in the Halle final 2 years ago where he then struggled through to the QFs of SW19, I told myself he was injured and in all honesty I think he was, it wasn't actually the Falla battle that concerned me most, the Columbian played that match of his life! It was the following round against Ilija Bozoljac that puzzled me, it was an eyebrow raiser watching him scrape through in 4 against the current 334.

The following year he again did not seem himself, he was not tossing aside players in the early rounds as easily as I had seen him do so in all 3 over the other slams even in his recent less dominant years. Then we all know what happened next, the loss to Tsonga from 2 sets up, of course Tsonga was unbelievable but Federer seemed lost, like he was powerless and that was something I find hard to accept, Tsonga was unbelievable yes but with Federers talent you would think he would have worked a way out of it.

Now there is the strange loss to 34 year old Haas at Halle, of course Haas is a special player and had injuries not affected him who knows where his career could be, but this was a bad loss no matter how you look at it. This was also following the dropped sets to Tomic and Hewitt on grass in Davis Cup last year.

I actually feel that grass could now be his worst surface, I honestly think that had any of those matches I mentioned above been on clay or hard, Federer would win comfortably.

I thought maybe the speed of the court is making it harder for him to return as perhaps his reactions are slightly slower, but he isnt exactly imperious on serve like he was in past years on the surface, The Wimbledon 07, 08, 09 finals the guy was an ace machine. So I'm at a loss for what the reason is, but he definitely seems to me to struggle most on the court where it all began for him.

He seems much more consistent on clay these days, and hard courts he hasn't been beaten before the semis since 2003 US Open. Has he moved back a step on the surface he was peerless on for so long?

I've thought this for a while actually. I don't think grass was ever a particularly special surface for Federer in terms of how good he was on it; it's just that from 05-07 he was so good that it didn't really matter what he was playing on, he was always going to win. In my opinion he's always been a much better hard court player (especially fast hard court) than grass, with the US Open being his best surface.

Well some interesting points there CAS.

Perhaps because of his dominance at Wimbledon over the years, on the surface where as you say he was 'peerless' for so long, that we have almost come to expect too much from him on grass in this late part of his career.

When you take a purely dispassionate look at the cold figures the reality is that his overall career performance on other surfaces has never been that far behind grass anyway. Of course, clay will always be considered a relative weakness when the final day of reckoning comes, but mainly because he has fallen short against just one player, the guy who just surpassed Bjorn Borg as the greatest clay courter of all. Over the years, this King of Clay has effectively prevented him compiling a record at RG that could well have matched his Wimbledon triumphs. Ok, this year he was stopped by Djokovic before he could come up against Rafa yet again, but maybe we can cut a little slack there for someone who is about to turn 31 versus a World No. 1 in his absolute prime.

The various Wimbledon oddities you highlight - Falla, Bozoljac etc - can be seen in two ways I guess. Either a sign of weakness that hadn't been seen before ; or merely a reflection of the fact that - at some point - ALL the top guys struggle to beat players who you expect would/should be despatched without fuss. This sort of thing has happened to other grass supremos - most notably Sampras and Borg. Many folk will remember Sampras needing five sets to beat the unheralded Brit, Barry Cowan, at Wimbledon ; and Cowan was ranked well below 200 at the time ! And then in 2002 (the 'parallel' year of 2012 for Federer age-wise) Sampras was taken out by a rather less celebrated Swiss, the, ahem, legendary George Bastl (rank : 145 ) in only the second round. Fed will be hoping to avoid a similar inglorious exit.

Personally I'm not sure just how much we can read into those surprising Hallle losses against Hewitt (2010) and Haas yesterday. IIRC it was Hewitt's first victory over Federer in about 15 attempts, and there was talk that Fed was carrying an injury in that 2010 Final ; but then I always feel that if you go on court you're fit to play. As for Haas .... well, despite the fact that he hadn't beat Fed for ten years it was, I guess, just a case of him playing exceptionally well on home soil, and Federer having a very average day. On the dropped sets vs Tomic and Hewitt in DC - don't forget that Federer had travelled to Australia immediately after his SF run at the USO, with little more than 24 hours to adjust to grass after the long flight, whereas the Aussies had been practising for around ten days or so. And Fed did still beat them both when all said & done.

The Federer serve is, as you say, clearly not as consistently reliable as it was and perhaps this more than anything is what's been getting him into trouble recently. He only needed to hold serve to take the first set against Haas yesterday when he was leading 3-1. And even on clay, his constant loss of serve cost him dearly against Novak in their SF at RG once he (ie Federer) had established leads in sets 1 & 2

In short it's clear that he is far more vulnerable than he was ; but ultimately isn't this just a fact of life, and practical evidence of what we mean when we talk about age eventually catching up with players ?

Either way, I don't believe we should necessarily set higher standards for him on grass than other surfaces. It's true that his W/L stats for grass are still the best of current players and best of all time. But his career record on other surfaces is not dramatically different :

HC : Best of active players, and best of all time
Clay : 2nd of active players and 11th of all time

We shall learn more in the next 2/3 weeks ......

Fast grass demands fast movement...we know Fed is good on fast courts due to his technique but movement wise I don't think he's as strong as he used to be, nor as explosive.

His Wimb results are probably the worst out of the 4 slams these past two years...QF, QF isn't it? So good point OP.

Results wise, Wimbledon has been weaker out of the slams for Fed in the last few years. However, in 2010, as you point out, there's a good chance he was injured. 2011 was more curious, what happened against Tsonga was similar to what Djokovic did a few months later @ the USO: Fed was up 2 sets and let his opponents back into the match. It was a strange sight to behold on both occasions.

This is the difference which between a younger Fed and the Fed of today: the younger Fed would have finished these matches off in str8 sets or in 4. The old Fed gets broken in sets 3 & 4 and decides to save his energy for the 5t set. For me, this is a massive mistake. Nadal's response (helped by a break due to deteriorating conditions) @ the RG this year is what Fed needs to do.

Nadal didn't give up on the 4th set even though he was a break down, he battled away and finished the match off in 4, as you have to against Djokovic. Tsonga found out to his detriment what happens if you don't. When Fed got broken in sets 3 & 4 in those matches against Tsonga & Djokovic, you didn't sense he would come back into contention in those sets and it did feel like he was saving himself for the 5th (although against Tsonga, it felt more like he was battling to hang onto his serve). The problem with this strategy is waiting till the 5th makes it sudden death, whoever slips up is out and after winning the last 2 sets, the opponent usually has the momentum which makes it trickier.

I think, as other posters have said, if he finishes off matches quickly, with aggressive play while retaining serve comfortably, he can get far @ Wimbledon. A bit depends on the draw but what Fed has shown through the last 9 months or so is that against players like Tsonga, Berdych and Delpo who have caused him difficulty in grand slams matches, he can put them away. Hence why I think he stands a good chance of getting to the semis this year.

lydian wrote:Fast grass demands fast movement...we know Fed is good on fast courts due to his technique but movement wise I don't think he's as strong as he used to be, nor as explosive.

His Wimb results are probably the worst out of the 4 slams these past two years...QF, QF isn't it? So good point OP.

His movements are completely gone, and its understandable he is 31 and no more the same Fed of prime.

Yes grass looks like his weakest surface right now, but movement on grass needs a lot of experience and thats were his xp will come to core when he gets into Wimbledon, Nadal is a serious threat for hm in Wimbledon otherwise I still Fed as a serious contender given how difficult it is to master grass.

Federers reading of the game on grass has somewhat disintegrated. He's not quick enough on the return to hit the ball back with top spin or good length, shows why he didnt break Tsonga once in the last 3 sets, not sure if he ever got a break point in the last 3 sets.

I'm confused, ic

I'm with you as regards age being a negative factor - and a big one at that.

But two of your comments seem to be self-contradictory

"his movements are completely gone"

"I still* Fed as a serious contender" (*am assuming you meant to include the word 'rate' after still ......)

I believe he;s saying that Federer's tennis skills are so good he can still go very far without the sublime movement.

Perfectly reasonable account for where he is.

No.

Clay is is still his worst surface.

Fed's problems on grass are mainly due to an ineffective return game essentially due to slower reflexes and poorer movement.

Just the expected passage of time.



emancipator

Lydian and Chaz sum up the best. Basically the Wimbledon surface and indeed some of the other grass tourneys play too slow, for them to compensate for this lack of movement

Let's be honest here, unless there is no rain for a month before, grass is in between the Clay and some of the slower hard courts

Which is why you can only bet on the Top 2

However, I fancy him for The Olympics later in the year, when the water table should be lower, i.e. making for quicker courts

J McEnroe Career W/L 119/20 (.856), but has losses on grass to

Carrati 1991 Manchester R32
Rostagno 1990 W R128
Masur 1988 W R64
Zivojinovic 1985 AO Q

Just Time exacting it's payments.

For me its movement issues a lot of the way. I remember in his dominant days he always seemed to be in the right position to hit a penetrating shot - especially the inside out FH. I used to think this had a lot to do with him being great at anticipating where the other player was going to hit the ball, but now i realise this had a lot to do with his ability to move well into position. We are now used to seeing Federer making more mistakes when striking the ball and some put this down to timing and simply age meaning he can't maintain his level as well as he used to. I think its now also a factor that he isn't in exactly the right position to hit some of these shots and it causes him to make more errors.

Taking a look at the Halle highlights theres a couple of mishits there that i think might now be due to slightly poorer movement. I also have to say though that Haas would likely have given Fed a game anyway, as some of his points were fantastic - in particular the break point won to go 5-4 up in the 2nd set.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Media/Videos/2012/06/Halle/Halle-2012-Final-Highlights-Haas-Federer.aspx

Overall i agree that grass might actually now be an much worse surface for him than previously. It also adds weight to the argument that Federer is actually very well suited to clay, just that Nadal has made his career results look far worse than they otherwise would be.

He is 30. And he just reached a final.

The previous grass King Sampras has always been something of a hero for Federer, so perhaps Fed is secretly planning to adopt the same strategy as Pete did back in 2002, when he was exact same age as Fed is now :

1. Lose to a total journeyman in R2 Wimbledon

2. Move on to the States and play a few HC events, but with early exits

3. Win the USO.

4. Announce retirement

5. Job's a good 'un


Now ..... if we can just find someone to play the role of the celebrated George Bastl in R2 at SW19 ......

lags72 wrote:
Now ..... if we can just find someone to play the role of the celebrated George Bastl in R2 at SW19 ......

Falla, oops, been there, done that in 2010 W R128, but the Graveyard of Champions is now a new court.

The thing is beyond 2012 do we expect him to reach Semi's at Grand Slams? Even though he is not winning Slams, the fact he remains at the business end is still good going for a 30 year old.

I would be more concerned if he was going out in the 3rd/4th round of Slam events.

I agree with what you are saying Legendkillar but Im just making the point that at this stage is he worse on grass than even clay? I actually think he could be right now, I feel much more calm about his matches on clay than I do on grass, unless its against Rafa

Not quite been there done that laverfan - but very close, admittedly

Sampras's days at Wimbledon came to a somewhat inglorious end at the hands of Bastl. At least Federer did come through the great 'Falla Crisis', so it wasn't his graveyard. Not yet at least.

lkv2 : think you've summed it pretty well The Slam runs overall continue to be remarkably consistent & impressive relative to age ; and with the Connors tally already passed I don't believe anyone looks set to match the run, if ever. And Jimbo of course was able to play to a ripe old age back in less demanding times ......

I've said before that I'm of the opinion he won't play much beyond 2013. I think spending time with the twins as they grow up (ie. in a settled environment rather than planes & hotels) will seem more & more attractive to Fed. Although I'm not confident enough to put too much money on the actual date ......

Meanwhile just when are we going to see some new blood making semis at the Slams, I keep asking myself ..........

The loss to Hass should not be used as a sole indicator of his abilities or current lack thereof, on grass.

Federer does realise that Slam preparation is different as compared to Halle, for example. The first couple of his matches at W 2012 should be used as a more reasonable barometer of his game. The draw may also play a role with floaters in his quarter.

CAS wrote:I agree with what you are saying Legendkillar but Im just making the point that at this stage is he worse on grass than even clay? I actually think he could be right now, I feel much more calm about his matches on clay than I do on grass, unless its against Rafa

Nah.

He looks comfortable on grass.

Plus it all hinders on the draw he gets too.

He doesn't seem to return as well probably because to return especially on grass i would assume as a faster surface you need that quick first step of explosion which is probably one of the first things to go in your early thirties. And movement is fundamental on grass that is why guys like Safin and Del Potro don't really like this type of surface and why guys like Nadal and Bjorg and Fed in his day maximize their speed advantage. Still Fed's ace in the whole is his serve, he has been serving really great all year long and well throughout his career. I think he will serve imperiously again at wimby, will that be enough to beat Nadal or Djoko, maybe but i don't think so as I would favor either of those two against at wimby.

I thought that the return could be a problem but in Dubai I think he returned great, and that surface is faster than what Wimbledon will be.

Well CAS lets remember that on grass the players he really has to return well against Nadal and Djoko have their serves helped quite a bit by the faster surface. Especially, Nadal whose wide lefty slice serve that is the hardest serve for the right hander to handle gets even nastier on zippy grass court.

socal1976 wrote:Well CAS lets remember that on grass the players he really has to return well against Nadal and Djoko have their serves helped quite a bit by the faster surface. Especially, Nadal whose wide lefty slice serve that is the hardest serve for the right hander to handle gets even nastier on zippy grass court.

Especially for a SHBH.

nah clay has to be the worst although it depends on the conditions a bit as well. e.g. Madrid suited him, so did RG last year when it was faster conditions than this year.

He just can't return

It's an oxymoron for him...he likes to take the ball early but faster surfaces are giving him less time to make solid returns. You also have to move quick on fast surfaces. But we'll see when he faces a top 10 er.

These guys with no titles to their resumé are less scared of Federer giving his age, and that he has twins, amongst others. Its alot harder for Federer to get on top of rallies from the return games.