Springboks the slow decline.

First topic message reminder :

The Springbok gameplan has been under scrutiny and criticism from the world for a long time, yet in spite of those criticisms South Africa as remained a top three nation during this time. The only time South Africa fell out of the top three was during the years 2000 – 2003, in a time where first SARU appointed a businessman by the name of Harry Viljoen and then the infamous Rudolph Streauli.

I decided to have a look at what the impact was on the Springbok performances from the time Kitch Christie was appointed against the traditional top five nations: Obviously as SA is one of them, the comparison will be with England, Australia, France and New Zealand.

Firstly let me provide the total statistics compared over the whole period.

South Africa have played 119 test matches against the other top 5 nations. Winning 53 and drawing 2, for a win percentage of 45%. Consider that 84 of those test matches have been played against their Tri Nation rivals, then 45% is still not really very good.

But, included in those statistics were the Dark Period in SA rugby when Harry Viljoen and Rudolph Strauli between them made a mockery of Springbok tradition and performances winning only 3 matches and drawing 1 out of 19 tests against these opponents.

If you exclude those matches for the sake of argument, then the stats read 100 tests played, 50 wins and 1 draw for a 50.5% win ratio. Of those 72 matches were against their tri Nation opponents.

I would argue that the bare minimum would be 50%, which doesn’t leave much room for ascendancy over the collective.

Statistics per nation overall.
FRA – 16 tests at 54%
ENG- 19 tests at 63%
OZ – 43 tests at 45%
NZ – 41 tests at 34%

Statistics per nation excluding the Dark Years.
FRA – 12 tests at 63%
ENG –16 tests at 75%
OZ – 38 tests at 45%
NZ – 34 tests at 41%

Kitch Christie 1994-1996
Performance against top 5 nations is 4/4 – 100%

Andre Markgraaf 1996
Performance against top 5 nations is 4/9 – 44%

Carel du Plessis 1997
Performance against top 5 nations is 1/4 – 25%

Nick Mallet 1997-2000
Performance against top 5 nations is 14/24 – 58%

Harry Viljoen and Rudolph Streauli the Dark Years 2000-2003
Performance against top 5 nations is 3/19 – 16%

Jake White 2004-2007
Performance against top 5 nations is 15/32 – 47%

Pieter de Villiers 2008-2011
Performance against top 5 nations is 12/27 – 44%

Considering the records of each of these coaches, Nick Mallet over a sustained period of time has proven to be consistently the most successful coach (other than Kitch Christie) and one only has to go back to the type of rugby South Africa played during that time to realize there was a time where we played the game expansively and some of our most famous victories came during that time.

The last 8 years, first Jake White by building a squad and formulating a game plan and then Pieter de Villiers continuing with the same group of players and the same game plan has proven to show a slow decline in success against the leading nations.

I don’t know how much more I have to prove to show that South Africa’s one dimensional plan is slowly but surely being countered more successfully against their top opponents.

Heyneke Meyer needs little more proof that things need to change, and it is up to him to ensure a focus shift to more players with X-factors and less focus on selecting the safe options.

The downward graph is undisputable

I don't really understand what Steyn offers, if his kicking is even off right now. That is what has set him apart in the past, from the other options, but isn't Lambie/Goosen kicking better than him atm anyway? Plus they are both very dangerous 10s from what I have seen. Lambie should start at 10 in my opinion.

I'm afraid that SA won't be progressing anywhere if they persist with Steyn at 10. It is such a pivotal position that can dictate how a team will play, and he is wasting the SA back line. Biltong, do you think Steyn will be dropped anytime soon?

Rory_Gallagher wrote:I don't really understand what Steyn offers, if his kicking is even off right now. That is what has set him apart in the past, from the other options, but isn't Lambie/Goosen kicking better than him atm anyway? Plus they are both very dangerous 10s from what I have seen. Lambie should start at 10 in my opinion.

I'm afraid that SA won't be progressing anywhere if they persist with Steyn at 10. It is such a pivotal position that can dictate how a team will play, and he is wasting the SA back line. Biltong, do you think Steyn will be dropped anytime soon?

I agree, South Africa really need to find another option at 10. If Goosen hadn't been injured, I would have tipped him to fill the gap at 10 with Lambie staying at fullback.

Rory, if I can't even convince my countrymen on an SA forum, how the hell are we going to convince Meyer?

Well thats another matter altogether. Youre saying you have players buying into a gameplan they dont agree with. That doesnt suggest no.1 to me. Plus at sxv level they play a more open game

We're going round and round on the same subject i know and my repeating of the subject comes from one thing. SA could be so much better. So many of their wins they always do 'just enough'.

Keep saying it but imagine our backline behind your pack. HUGE difference. And yet you have the players. All you need is the permission.

Taylorman wrote:Well thats another matter altogether. Youre saying you have players buying into a gameplan they dont agree with. That doesnt suggest no.1 to me. Plus at sxv level they play a more open game

We're going round and round on the same subject i know and my repeating of the subject comes from one thing. SA could be so much better. So many of their wins they always do 'just enough'.

Keep saying it but imagine our backline behind your pack. HUGE difference. And yet you have the players. All you need is the permission.

Yes. Keep knocking the rocks together guys! One day you will start the fire!

Maybe Biltong for the next Baabaas games you need to pick Cooper or Carter at 10 inside the SA midfield. Then they'll be like "OOOOOOHHHHHH!!!!"

Like that thinking Taylorman. Would annihilate most teams.

Hell disney would that be a sight to behold.

You thnik we can arrange with Steve to loan him to us for a bit?

biltongbek wrote:Rory, if I can't even convince my countrymen on an SA forum, how the hell are we going to convince Meyer?

Surely an international coach, would be able to see that Steyn is not playing well? He even said so himself, but is he actually going to follow up what he says and drop him if things continue this way? The thing is, I could even see Meyer having Lambie kick so that Steyn can remain on the team. Which would be moronic.

I hope you haven't got a nice SA Kidney on your hands. They do sound similar at this point.

Meyers more likely to go with peter grant isnt he if he has to drop morne? (Not that he ever will) Just as good a kicker and in the typical safe %10 role that meyer wants.

Shame with goosen who will never be the same after this injury. Too young to have such a long term injury. Seen it before and it is confidence knocking.

For me its nor about individuals. Its about team culture. You pick your gameplan first. Then your players to match it. Thats why a few missed kicks wont put meyer off. Morne is fundamental to his gameplan and while its winning he'll keep picking him.

The 'I told you so's' will come later the hard way thats all.

Would be Biltong, they just would need to learn to run off them. Playing off someone who is so unpredictable can be a handful if you're not used to it. But when the 12 is in sync with the 10 (Cruden/SBW on Sat) look how much havoc can be caused.

Hansen or Tew? Tew used to work for my old man maybe could pull a couple of strings there

If Heyneke Meyer is going to hold onto this methodology I fear I will come to the end of my support for the springboks, might as well then find another country to live in as this is one of the things that keeps me here.

Apart from Steyn's missed penalties, I think the RSA overall looked a very impressive squad in the 3 games. Line outs, the back row attack, S/half, the de Villiers, the 2 wings. Most top IRB teams could be marked 'improvement needed' at any point in time, and they all tend to leapfrog (apart maybe from no1). This is almost a continous state of existence for 2 to 8 always scrambling to improve vs the IRB neighbours. I don't totally buy the 'decline' thing for RSA. Meyer perhaps needs a little time to polish up the team and the game plan..

I've always thought the SA backline's physicality and rush defence, coupled with the kick chase are its biggest strengths. Watching NZ vs SA games I've felt that if we can match them physically we shouldn't let them in at all in structured play. I don't get the heebie jeebies when the SA backs get the ball in space like I do when Aussie does against us.

I think Aussie are unpredictable, and the Boks are physical backline wise. I think NZ are a combination of the two which is part of the reason why we have the best record I guess. Adding unpredictability to a Springbok backline is like awakening a monster for mine. But the whole backline have to buy into it, you can't just introduce one player.

biltongbek wrote:If Heyneke Meyer is going to hold onto this methodology I fear I will come to the end of my support for the springboks, might as well then find another country to live in as this is one of the things that keeps me here.

Aw come on man I know that isn't true, you are clearly VERY passionate about your country. Sure, you are flipping raging about the whole project player thing because we keep taking your players! Don't become a project player bro.

Passion does go both ways, so feeling angry about where SA are going is natural.

Yes gregor. Good balanced view. Its early days and meyer has yet to show his adaptable side so benefit of the doubt should go to him.

Biltong weve some nice hilltop real estate overlooking wellington harbour for you so i can make sone enquiries. Youd have to support disneys team the canes but even ive warmed to them this year. Its only a few hours to skiing, the waters always not far from every kiwis doorstep. Everythings close (durr...cos were a small country). Youd need to take a 4 hour flight to oz to get beaches as good as yours but hey, thats what theyre there for...entertaining kiwis. No snakes, spiders, lions, tigers or anything like that..

Rory a south african trait is stubborness.

It is something in our genetic coding, if you tell us we can't do something we will be hell bent to prove you wrong.

I am getting the impression the same applies to our methodology of our coaches, it was like that with Jake White, Nick Mallet, Pieter de Villiers, Danie Cruywen, hell I can make you a list of just about every coah in our history.

I think the reason why the media everywhere harp so much on our imaginative play is becuase they have studied our psychology and know that is we ever unleash our full potential they'll be in trouble, hence they harp on this at every opportunity, in the hope that our stubbornness prevails.

Taylorman wrote:Yes gregor. Good balanced view. Its early days and meyer has yet to show his adaptable side so benefit of the doubt should go to him.

Biltong weve some nice hilltop real estate overlooking wellington harbour for you so i can make sone enquiries. Youd have to support disneys team the canes but even ive warmed to them this year. Its only a few hours to skiing, the waters always not far from every kiwis doorstep. Everythings close (durr...cos were a small country). Youd need to take a 4 hour flight to oz to get beaches as good as yours but hey, thats what theyre there for...entertaining kiwis. No snakes, spiders, lions, tigers or anything like that..

I've always been partial to the canes, not a beach person myself.

Taylorman you didn't tell him the hilltop was Wainuiomata did you.

disneychilly wrote:Taylorman you didn't tell him the hilltop was Wainuiomata did you.

would that be a dormant volcano?

My take exactly disney. An unpredictable mix it up bok backline would be the death of us all. They just dont see it as clearly as we do.
I always watch them and imagine an oz or ab back attack lining up after another rampant bok forward rush but instead it just dies off so many times because they dont maximise the gains made. Our backs would have been flying in from everywhere at that english backline as it was scrambling back off alberts runs. There wouldnt have been time to recover.

Yeah Biltong but the smoke/ash comes from gunpowder.

biltongbek wrote:Rory a south african trait is stubborness.

It is something in our genetic coding, if you tell us we can't do something we will be hell bent to prove you wrong.

I am getting the impression the same applies to our methodology of our coaches, it was like that with Jake White, Nick Mallet, Pieter de Villiers, Danie Cruywen, hell I can make you a list of just about every coah in our history.

I think the reason why the media everywhere harp so much on our imaginative play is becuase they have studied our psychology and know that is we ever unleash our full potential they'll be in trouble, hence they harp on this at every opportunity, in the hope that our stubbornness prevails.

Then maybe if Meyer doesn't succeed, SA should be looking for a foreign coach. However, lets give Meyer a chance, even if the initial signs aren't brilliant. I think he will surely have to replace Steyn at some point, possibly even this season.

disneychilly wrote:Taylorman you didn't tell him the hilltop was Wainuiomata did you.

ha ha...could be arranged. A night out at the wainui league club could be just what the doctor ordered. Been there a couple of times. Reminds me of the sit on a crate multi jug pubs of the 70s.

BTW Biltong,
I cannot be rrrrsed myself (I'm not Bokke), but is it fruitful to go back over the IRB ranking recent years and check RSA's position ? My subjective guess is it has been 2/3/2 /3 for a longtime.
Stuck behind no1, yes, and vying with Aus, but not exactly in decline ?
What do the stats actually show ?

All the time mate, like a half working bloody yoyo, it just can't get all the way to the top.

biltongbek wrote:All the time mate, like a half working bloody yoyo, it just can't get all the way to the top.

Thats the type of string youre using biltong. Its that numbered stuff. Starts strongly at the bottom at one then stops at 10 on the way up.

There you go mate, its not in decline at all. [Its just in stagnation].

Well the thread needed a good title, otherwise it doesn't get read.

Taylorman wrote:

biltongbek wrote:All the time mate, like a half working bloody yoyo, it just can't get all the way to the top.

Thats the type of string youre using biltong. Its that numbered stuff. Starts strongly at the bottom at one then stops at 10 on the way up.

...and get rid of that 10 and then watch your yoyo shoot all the way to the top...

Taylorman,
maybe I need to migrate to NZ. I love the Marlborough Chardonnay, and I could become a citizen of the no1 rugby country, and enjoy all that coast life. Although my home town (London) is full of Kiwis.

Can I just say Biltong that I think you got a little too pixxed off at AWOP. He was essentially agreeing with you but was a bit too straight forward.

"I don’t know how much more I have to prove to show that South Africa’s one dimensional plan is slowly but surely being countered more successfully against their top opponents."

This seems to be the heart of the matter and I don't think that Morne Steyn is the only reason.

My analysis of the QF was that SA lots because they tried to run the ball too much and the forwards' handling skills were not quite up to it. Made some great breaks lots of pressure etc but some little mistake always got in the way of converting it into tries.

So agree Steyn is a problem and am sure Lambie or Gossen would be much better in the long term for SA but it would take more than that to change your game. The forwards would also need to up their ball skills.

gregortree wrote:Taylorman,
maybe I need to migrate to NZ. I love the Marlborough Chardonnay, and I could become a citizen of the no1 rugby country, and enjoy all that coast life. Although my home town (London) is full of Kiwis.

Might I suggest the Oyster Bay Chardo, its apparently available in London.

A few points firstly those who ignore History are bound to repeat it.The Bok bench mark has always been measured for good or ill against the All Blacks.So a few Stats that you so lovingly quote.In total there has been 83 offical Matches plus 4 versus the Cavaliers.A total for my thesis of 87 matches a record of 47 wins,3 draws,37 losses in favour of the All Blacks.For my purposes 1921-1995[including the Cavaliers]46 matches played 19 wins,3 draws,24 losses.1996-2011 41 matches played 28 wins 13 losses.
During the period 1921-1928 [2-3-2] scrum 7 matches played 3wins,1draw 3 lost.
1937-49 [3-4-1 scrum problem] 7 matches played 1 win,7 losses
1949 -95[3-4-1 scrum fixed tours]32 matches played 15 wins 2 draws 15 losses.
1996 -2011 41 matches played 28 wins 13 losses.
From these figures can be seen that in the Amateur.Semi-pro period EXCEPT for
the period when the AllBlacks had a scrum problem[1937-49] when the Boks enjoyed a 5 win advantage,AFTERWARDS the results were EXACTLY equal in wins losses.Tours in each case resulting in Home wins.
That the format of the 3ns favoured the AllBlacks,that IF the Boks were EVER in decline then it started in 1956.OR that in real terms they are BOTH the best sides in the World except for brief periods over 107 years.
THAT would be a very obvious and maybe simplistic conclusion,I will not comment on political issues Pre or post apartheid.
BOTH countries are proud Nations there media/fans doesn`t tolerate failure this encourages a certain frame of mind.WINNING is every thing no matter how the Coach looks around him,and bases his team on the most succesful franchises /teams at the next level.He has his own ideas how he wants to play the game then picks players to implement it.Whether he picks on form or a known quantity is up to him.BUT there will come a time when players don`t
perform and he must use the axe and hope the changes work.
Is it a case of the Boks being in decline or the rest of the World improving.EVERYONE i`m sure thinks he can pick a better team when his side starts losing.BUT it`s not his neck on the line is it?

nganboy wrote:Can I just say Biltong that I think you got a little too pixxed off at AWOP. He was essentially agreeing with you but was a bit too straight forward.

"I don’t know how much more I have to prove to show that South Africa’s one dimensional plan is slowly but surely being countered more successfully against their top opponents."

This seems to be the heart of the matter and I don't think that Morne Steyn is the only reason.

My analysis of the QF was that SA lots because they tried to run the ball too much and the forwards' handling skills were not quite up to it. Made some great breaks lots of pressure etc but some little mistake always got in the way of converting it into tries.

So agree Steyn is a problem and am sure Lambie or Gossen would be much better in the long term for SA but it would take more than that to change your game. The forwards would also need to up their ball skills.

I agree with Ngan. I thought I agreeing to you and you start get and and I was so

Yes, we see Oyster Bay a lot, in both restuarants & supermarkets. (~ £10 in supermarkets) V respected brand in UK. as are the ABs I might add.
Only saw ABs once, in a v dull November day in 1983. England won the equally dull match with a line out catch & flop by Maurice Colclough.
These more 'professional' days, you sadly cannot get near Twickenham for an AB game as a real fan, for all the corp hospitality industry punters jamming up the capacity. I tend to actually dislike a Twickenham event these days for all the flim flam and the rude non-rugby crowd noisily ignoring what is going on on the pitch. Can be quite an appalling experience.