Tomorrows Federer match poll

With the Seniors Tour exibition against Xavier Malisse being just enough to squeak by, I wondered whether anyone believes Federer will have got his back in shape for the quarter.

History suggests that if fit he always beats Youzhny, but anything less than fit Federer won't see him through, except perhaps in another horrible lenghty match.

If he's really bad he may scratch, or even (!!!) retire during the match.

What's the consensus?

I'm staying positive - the Colonel's recipe is no secret to Federer.

A 4 set struggle for me.

You can never really tell how a player is feeling from what they say. Fed always assures everyone he's fine all the time, when sometimes he's not. (although he did say he was under the weather in IW earlier this year, then promptly won it).
Others complain of every ache and pain. Some only seem to play well when they ARE in pain. Reckon he should still have enough to beat Youzhny.

Well, with the weather and the likely delays today, Fed might get an extra day's rest and recuperation...

The other issue is how hot is it going to be? Cool and damp conditions are not going to favour Fed if he does have a stiff back, but if it's warm he might find more freedom of movement. Still think he's very unlikely to either scratch or retire during the match (after all, how many times has he done that in his career?), and I think even at 90% he's got enough to beat Youzhny, although probably not in straight sets.

It is likely Federer will win.

I only put "retire" in for completeness - I really don't see that. I also think he'd only scratch if he was really bad going to the ground.

I have two main concerns;

1. I've never seen this back thing recover quickly when he's had it before. He had it at W '10 when he was hopeless in the first two rounds and eventually he fell to Berdych. I can't see any way he can just shake it off.

2. I think he'll get put on Court 1 so they don't have one QF finishing before some R4 are done. If so, he's likely to be out in the cold. In a way, he'd be better off if everyone finishes today and can at least stake a claim for a CC place and then have some rain so he plays indoors. Anyone who's had a bad back knows that a chilly wind is a killer.

It's always possible that he feels B+ and can get past Youzhny on the basis of guile and variety, that's what option 2 is there for,

I'm very surprised to see so many people believe he can make a 100% recovery. Bad backs don't tend to go like that, his never have.

I hope you're right!

I agree with you BB.

Bad backs don't recover that quickly and being someone who had back surgery at 18 after a freak accident during an indoor football match, I would be amazed. When I play tennis it takes about 3 days for the pain, spasms and stifness to fully go.

He is fortunate to play someone as temperamental as Youzhny.

I agree BB. He always plays down his injuries as he did in Wimbledon 10. In that first round he had his thigh strapped and he played 2 bad rounds. This could not have come at a worse time in a way as he had a really good chance of winning here again. Not a huge chance but a small one. How many slams has Nadal not been part of the final 4 recently? The thought of having to battle no 1 or 2 in the semis and then face the one you have not played really reduces the chances of a win.

Lets just hope that it was just one of those things as he put it. He played well after the MTO I thought although he didn't tend to go for very low shots. As long as his serve is not affected he should be okay. If that is an issue he stands little chance of progressing so lets hope it all works well.

Take the FO in 2009. He was not injured there but he was 2 sets and break point down but won and then struggled against JMDP but won. So it just depends on the day. Benneteau played well above his level that day and I think Federer did not expect that. He would have pulled through the Malisse game in 3 sets if not for that blip at the start of the 3rd set. He is prone to lose concentration at times when 2 sets up a la Tsonga/Djoko last year.

Lets just hope he can sort it out. Who knows. Mayer may cause a huge upset as he is playing well. I think he might take it to Djokovic unlike Gasquet. If its meant to be Federer's Wimbledon it will be, just like the FO 2009. The only worrying thing is he lost the final in Halle to Haas. Has he ever lost in Halle and gone onto win Wimbledon? I don't think so...

I think the issue is that at no point in the match did his serve rise much over 109/114mph, and he was using the wide swinger a lot to compensate. Even when he was cleaning up the 2nd set it was by employing what I termed "Seniors Tour" tennis.

I did say at the time that he was showing why he'll be unbeatable on that tour!

For me he wins, but will be vulnerable to any of the 4 Top 6 players remaining and that even including Ferrer

Not certain if he's up to chasing the ball down with intensity, which is what would be needed

Tsonga would be easier, in that respect

bogbrush wrote:

2. I think he'll get put on Court 1 so they don't have one QF finishing before some R4 are done.... In a way, he'd be better off if everyone finishes today and can at least stake a claim for a CC place and then have some rain so he plays indoors. Anyone who's had a bad back knows that a chilly wind is a killer.

I don't get that logic. There's one R16 left playing, and they are on No. 2 and will finish on No. 2. There's a chance of enough dry this pm for it to finish. In any event I'd expect the organisers to bust it to make the winner play Kohlschreiber in the QF tomorrow, otherwise you've got a SF with different rest periods for the participants which is probably a more significant unfairness given that Kohlschreiber played today.

I think that there's a good chance of Fed v. Youzhny first up on CC tomorrow with Murray to follow. Djoko has not had No. 1 yet, whereas both Fed and Murray have. I just hope that Tsonga gets the job done later today - then I'd expect Djoko v. Mayer 1st up on No. 1 with Tsonga v. Kohlschreiber to follow.

They'll probably put Azarenka on CC to complete the line-up.

I don't think he'll retire, I remember him saying that if a player is not good enough to play then he shouldn't play. There's a possibility he might give Youzhny a walkover, but if he's playing then he believes he can win.

Personally I'm hoping for a repeat of 2003, (bad back in 4th round, and then wins)

bogbrush wrote:I think the issue is that at no point in the match did his serve rise much over 109/114mph, and he was using the wide swinger a lot to compensate. Even when he was cleaning up the 2nd set it was by employing what I termed "Seniors Tour" tennis.

I did say at the time that he was showing why he'll be unbeatable on that tour!

Yes, the serve was slower but he was hitting the spots fairly well. I can understand why he was doing that because at the back of his mind he may not have wanted to put too much stress on his back not knowing when it may cause him problems. I think he may have tempered his game to suit the opponent? Was there any point risking further injury in trying to totally outplay Malisse?

Que sara sara I guess where his Wimbledon is concerned.

barrystar wrote: I don't get that logic. There's one R16 left playing, and they are on No. 2 and will finish on No. 2. There's a chance of enough dry this pm for it to finish. In any event I'd expect the organisers to bust it to make the winner play Kohlschreiber in the QF tomorrow, otherwise you've got a SF with different rest periods for the participants which is probably a more significant unfairness given that Kohlschreiber played today.

I think that there's a good chance of Fed v. Youzhny first up on CC tomorrow with Murray to follow. Djoko has not had No. 1 yet, whereas both Fed and Murray have. I just hope that Tsonga gets the job done later today - then I'd expect Djoko v. Mayer 1st up on No. 1 with Tsonga v. Kohlschreiber to follow.

They'll probably put Azarenka on CC to complete the line-up.

I agree, I'd find it pretty strange if they put Fed on Court 1, given the empty seats we seen around centre court, it surely makes more sense from a financial perspective and a common sense one too to put Fed first on CC. Also a reasonable chance Fed would get the match finished quickly.

Regarding the thread topic, I think Fed will play better than on Monday and remember he has played Youzhny only a few weeks ago when he beat him soundly and in straight sets on grass and presumably he had the same issues with his back then because his play during RG has been similar to his play during Wimbledon. I'm already looking ahead to Fed's potential semi with Djokovic, I think many are sceptical like they were @ the French of Fed making the semi yet he made it there and even though his recent Wimbledon record is worse, Youzhny is unfortunately (or fortunately, as you prefer )owned by Fed: not a single win. Djokovic is the challenge and I hope to put up a thread once that match is completed assessing the likely clash.

Ferrer's record against Fed is worse than it is against Nadal! if Ferrer somehow found himself in the final (which I doubt) and he happened to meet Fed, he'd be dispatched in 3 or 4 sets. Ferrer and Youzhny share one thing in common: they both lost to Federer 13 times in row. That pretty much sums up there chances against Fed: Zero.

I'm praying Fed can win wimbledon. I'm a huge fan and I really want him to win one more GS, and I want it to be Wimbledon. The I can live a happy tennis fan and actually support Murray from now on.

I think he'll come through it, and I hope he does with relative ease. I think a 4 set win. It might be a bit uncomfortable for him, but I hope he's on early to give him time to hopefully recover a bit more before Djokovic in the semis. The tournament deserves a Djokovic v Federer match with both in good shape.

Whether that's possible, only Federer will know. Contrary to most people I think if Federer goes into a semi with Djokovic with almost no expectations on him, and is moving reasonably well, I think it could be a lot tighter than some people think.

martyr wrote:I'm praying Fed can win wimbledon. I'm a huge fan and I really want him to win one more GS, and I want it to be Wimbledon. The I can live a happy tennis fan and actually support Murray from now on.

It would also make some others very happy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-18686100

Oxfam... throwing money away since time began. If it is Africa forget it....

Youhnzy has said he has next to no chance so he's mentally beaten already. Federer said he'll be ok with the 2 day rest and the back is something that comes and goes.

Let's face it, he'll never have an easier run to a slam semi than this year.
Federer in straights.

Agree with lydian, fed wins unless there is something about the back he aggravates during the match. If your back is really bad you would either not be able to continue the malisse match or you wouldn't be able to hit today. US broadcasters showed him hitting at the court and he looked pretty good and they said he was moving fine. If you have had chronic back problems it is treatable to an extent and manageable. If it is bad you would know it within an hour two of the match.

socal1976 wrote:Agree with lydian, fed wins unless there is something about the back he aggravates during the match. If your back is really bad you would either not be able to continue the malisse match or you wouldn't be able to hit today. US broadcasters showed him hitting at the court and he looked pretty good and they said he was moving fine. If you have had chronic back problems it is treatable to an extent and manageable. If it is bad you would know it within an hour two of the match.

Come on Socal anybody who watched Fed's last 2 matches would understand he is struggling pretty badly, this Fed would not make it till semi's unless some miracle happens to his back or Youzhny become generous as usual

Even if he some how makes semi he would likely be blown away by Djoko in th semis without much fuss.

Yes Fed n Djoko got the easiest draws, but don't think he would make use full use of it.

IC, I don't buy the whole back excuse. There isn't a single healthy player on tour right now. The US broadcast showed Fed hitting and moving smoothly today. Certainly by today any back injury would knock him out. Fed hasn't been playing well really since the start of the French, invisible. Find me someone who plays a lot of tennis for years and years and more likely than not I will show you someone who has the same exact chronic pain and soreness issue. I think Fed will be and is fine unless he reaggravates something more severly during the match.

socal1976 wrote:IC, I don't buy the whole back excuse. There isn't a single healthy player on tour right now. The US broadcast showed Fed hitting and moving smoothly today. Certainly by today any back injury would knock him out. Fed hasn't been playing well really since the start of the French, invisible. Find me someone who plays a lot of tennis for years and years and more likely than not I will show you someone who has the same exact chronic pain and soreness issue. I think Fed will be and is fine unless he reaggravates something more severly during the match.

Seriously?

What's the expanation for the 1st serve being 10-15mph down and deliberately leaving balls wide to the forehand?

I'm sure we can find someone else with a bad back, but we won't be taking them seriously to win a QF match in a Slam.

Federer will play regardless (unless he couldn't get out of bed, and he's not there) but there's simply no way a professional can sacrifice speed and movement and expect to make an impact at the biggest tournament in the sport. If he serves consistently through this match at his normal 118-128mpm, and runs as hard to the right as ever, then he's good to go. He wasn't on Monday, of that we can be certain.

bogbrush wrote:

socal1976 wrote:IC, I don't buy the whole back excuse. There isn't a single healthy player on tour right now. The US broadcast showed Fed hitting and moving smoothly today. Certainly by today any back injury would knock him out. Fed hasn't been playing well really since the start of the French, invisible. Find me someone who plays a lot of tennis for years and years and more likely than not I will show you someone who has the same exact chronic pain and soreness issue. I think Fed will be and is fine unless he reaggravates something more severly during the match.

Seriously?

What's the expanation for the 1st serve being 10-15mph down and deliberately leaving balls wide to the forehand?

I'm sure we can find someone else with a bad back, but we won't be taking them seriously to win a QF match in a Slam.

Federer will play regardless (unless he couldn't get out of bed, and he's not there) but there's simply no way a professional can sacrifice speed and movement and expect to make an impact at the biggest tournament in the sport. If he serves consistently through this match at his normal 118-128mpm, and runs as hard to the right as ever, then he's good to go. He wasn't on Monday, of that we can be certain.

You have to expect backlash questions over how much of a hinderance it will actually be.

I am with the LF school of thought, if your fit enough to make it on court, your fit enough to play. I have towed that line with any player taking to the court not 100%.

I do think Federer will make adjustments today to his serve. No way is he going to get the bend in his back in his service motion. A lot will depend on the Youzhny UE count which I suspect will be high.

I think Federer fans should comfort themselves in the fact it is Youzhny he plays and not someone like a Berdych or Tsonga who would hit flat FH's.

As far as records and so on are concerned I go along with the same principle, simply because otherwise everything gets qualified and you don't know where you are.

However, if you are trying to forecast an outcome then it makes no sense to pretend that something that is, isn't. It's not a question of "backlash" , it's a question of actually assessing reality and making projections based on that.

In that situation it doesn't make sense to me to put my telescope to my blind eye, much as in this case it would be reassuring so to do.

You know the rule of thumb with some posters and when a Murray or Nadal have an injury scare and to the naked eye your not convinced, they will jump down your throat if your favourite player suffers a similar thing.

I can see Roger is nowhere near 100%, which makes it the more frustrating I guess that he will risk further injury to continue playing. I had the same frustration with Murray at the FO.

Malisse was beyond poor and it is kind he has Youzhny who could throw into the same group as Malisse as someone when they play well it's brilliant viewing and when they play poor you scream for a TV licence refund!

The factors in his favour today:

CC - roof - 1st on court.

You couldn't ask for any more, apart from obviously a healthy back.

Absolutely, I was dreading him going onto No 1 and being on & off in a cold wind. I hope the roof goes on.

I also agree that Malisse was apalling and there's a chance that Youzhny may follow suit, though he is a bit more of a serious propsition.

Part of me thinks a win could set him up for a brutal loss in the semi, as Djokovic won't throw in the u/es and will move the ball side to side, which even Malisse won easy points (when he was capable of doing so).

I am still not convinced on Djokovic's form at the moment. That is me being ultra critical. It is very much an open tournament. Also with Djokovic being on C1 on the forecast not looking great might even go as far as to unsettling him.

The omens are looking good for Federer. You would still want to be in his shoes going into the final straight knowing he won't be on an outdoor court for the rest of the tournament.

Federer and Murray must be thinking what a chance they have because of the elements and what that could do. I do wonder if the organisers will bring the other matches indoors. Kohlschreiber and Tsonga have my upmost sympathy as them finishing today is looking very unlkely.

legendkillarV2 wrote:I am still not convinced on Djokovic's form at the moment. That is me being ultra critical. It is very much an open tournament. Also with Djokovic being on C1 on the forecast not looking great might even go as far as to unsettling him.

The omens are looking good for Federer. You would still want to be in his shoes going into the final straight knowing he won't be on an outdoor court for the rest of the tournament.

Federer and Murray must be thinking what a chance they have because of the elements and what that could do. I do wonder if the organisers will bring the other matches indoors. Kohlschreiber and Tsonga have my upmost sympathy as them finishing today is looking very unlkely.

Yes, Federer and Murray (and Youzhny & Ferrer, let us not forget!) have caught a break here.

legendkillarV2 wrote: I do wonder if the organisers will bring the other matches indoors. Kohlschreiber and Tsonga have my upmost sympathy as them finishing today is looking very unlkely.

This is the point I was making yesterday and ranks as organisers inconsistencies. Like I summised yesterday they brought matches onto Centre last evening and play went on to around 10pm but they declined to do this the day before. Why? Okay all the men's matches were done and dusted yesterday but still Florian Mayer was diadvantaged as, instead of getting to finish his match on Monday night he had to wait to complete his match yesterday afternoon and has to play Djokovic again today - an avoidable situation.

legendkillarV2 wrote:You know the rule of thumb with some posters and when a Murray or Nadal have an injury scare and to the naked eye your not convinced, they will jump down your throat if your favourite player suffers a similar thing.

I can see Roger is nowhere near 100%, which makes it the more frustrating I guess that he will risk further injury to continue playing. I had the same frustration with Murray at the FO.

Malisse was beyond poor and it is kind he has Youzhny who could throw into the same group as Malisse as someone when they play well it's brilliant viewing and when they play poor you scream for a TV licence refund!

The factors in his favour today:

CC - roof - 1st on court.

You couldn't ask for any more, apart from obviously a healthy back.

Exactly, wasn't a lot of sympathy on this site for Djoko either when he tore his back. Not a lot of sympathy for Murray or Nadal and their injuries if you mention any of their injuries in relation to poor play it will be treated as an excuse. I for one think Fed himself has been pretty positive about his comments in regards to his back. And it isn't like he is making a meal of it or being dramatic or using it as an excuse himself. Nice of him to even apologize for the MTO. Like I said I will withold judgement till I get a chance to look at how he plays against Youzhny. Particularly in terms of his serve and movement. If he is ok in that regards in the following match he should be fine.

socal1976 wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:You know the rule of thumb with some posters and when a Murray or Nadal have an injury scare and to the naked eye your not convinced, they will jump down your throat if your favourite player suffers a similar thing.

I can see Roger is nowhere near 100%, which makes it the more frustrating I guess that he will risk further injury to continue playing. I had the same frustration with Murray at the FO.

Malisse was beyond poor and it is kind he has Youzhny who could throw into the same group as Malisse as someone when they play well it's brilliant viewing and when they play poor you scream for a TV licence refund!

The factors in his favour today:

CC - roof - 1st on court.

You couldn't ask for any more, apart from obviously a healthy back.

Exactly, wasn't a lot of sympathy on this site for Djoko either when he tore his back. Not a lot of sympathy for Murray or Nadal and their injuries if you mention any of their injuries in relation to poor play it will be treated as an excuse. I for one think Fed himself has been pretty positive about his comments in regards to his back. And it isn't like he is making a meal of it or being dramatic or using it as an excuse himself. Nice of him to even apologize for the MTO. Like I said I will withold judgement till I get a chance to look at how he plays against Youzhny. Particularly in terms of his serve and movement. If he is ok in that regards in the following match he should be fine.

I always feel with that it is more 'restricted' play than poor play. Players unable to execute their shots due to physical limitations should always be viewed in my eyes as 'restricted' play. I agree some posters have a lack of sympathy for your Djokovics, Murrays and Nadals of this world, but you have to as a fan if sticking the boot in to these players that Federer will gain some questions raised about his back and it's severity. Same with Tsonga yesterday. He called an MTO for his back and was booming serves and FH's down like there was no tomorrow.

Players will get niggles. It is unavoidable. Some players will grimace, some will point to the area of discomfort, some will remain silent through gritted teeth and some if your like me will just swear like a trooper in frustration of being in any form of discomfort.

Look at Agassi. He had the body of a 50 year old with all his problems with his back, yet he never called an MTO or even highlighted the area. Some players just have a better pain threshold than others.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote: I do wonder if the organisers will bring the other matches indoors. Kohlschreiber and Tsonga have my upmost sympathy as them finishing today is looking very unlkely.

This is the point I was making yesterday and ranks as organisers inconsistencies. Like I summised yesterday they brought matches onto Centre last evening and play went on to around 10pm but they declined to do this the day before. Why? Okay all the men's matches were done and dusted yesterday but still Florian Mayer was diadvantaged as, instead of getting to finish his match on Monday night he had to wait to complete his match yesterday afternoon and has to play Djokovic again today - an avoidable situation.

Because it was a BO3. That is not going to eat up the time and also the rigours of womens tennis is not going to deteriorate the court surface.

Look at the schedule. You had 3 Mens matches which had already seen a set of play in Tsonga/Fish, Murray/Cilic and Mayer/Gasquet. These still had the potential to contribute another 3 sets at the most. Kohlshreiber/Baker and Del Potro/Ferrer had barely got underway. Again they could've contributed 10 sets at the most. You are talking the potential of 19 sets of tennis after 10 sets of tennis had already taken place.

Result wise it is easy now to criticise the organisers, but given their position and the lack of hindsight a Grass court cannot sustain say 20 sets of tennis. It would literally turn into a cricket wicket.

Yes but to complete, say Gasquet's match would have only been two or three sets on Monday evening. Apparently, his coach was not too pleased either.

We would be back to the whole 'not helping Murray' argument.

It is an endless roundabout of criticism that the organisers cannot avoid. End of the day they got the matches completed without major disruption.

I'd agree with that - but more by luck than good judgement. Hopefully, the rain does not disrupt things too much more from here on in.

Tournaments rely on luck with the weather. Look at the French Open this year and US Open last year. If Murray gets through today and Tsonga/Kohlschreiber is affected by the heavens, I am sure you won't hear too many complaints from Murray fans

Fair point lk. I think that was my fear yesterday - that Murray's match wouldn't get completed and he'd have a right fixture pile-up. Okay you can accept that most of the time but this surely has to be Andy's best chance ever at Wimbledon since Nadal was eliminated early and opened the draw up. Will he get a better chance? Very doubtful so I was fearing the weather etc throwing a spanner in the works. The same applies to Federer I feel. Surely, his best last chance to win Wimbledon once more. Now or never?

Federer certainly has a chance to win it. Everything is working out to his advantage, though a lot rests on how he physically is feeling. You can sense the frustration for any Federer fan knowing that he really stands his best chance in years to win a Slam and for it to potentially be snatched from him down to physical limitations caused by injury.

Yes it is Murray's best chance to date to win a Slam, but in fairness he really has his work cut out in Ferrer. If he can overcome him, I think a spot in the final beckons. Right now if your Murray you would fancy a shot at Federer in the final should the draw pans out that way.

I never saw Federer V Malisse so I can't judge how bad the injury was. However, since he was able to complete the win I'd say it isn't overly serious and Fed should win today fairly comfortably. It all depends on how Andy approaches the match? If he is too passive he runs the risk of getting beaten but if he is positive and aggressive I think he wins in three or four tightish sets.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I never saw Federer V Malisse so I can't judge how bad the injury was. However, since he was able to complete the win I'd say it isn't overly serious and Fed should win today fairly comfortably. It all depends on how Andy approaches the match? If he is too passive he runs the risk of getting beaten but if he is positive and aggressive I think he wins in three or four tightish sets.

Hopefully he wants to get home to see Pointless and he plays like he did in the final set v Baghdatis or yesterday v Cilic. Or the first round v Davydenko.