The Serious End - QF Discussion

So we come to the serious end of the tournament. I will give a quick review of each of the matches with my prediction.

Djokovic v Mayer Prediction was correct

Djokovic,age 25, #1
Mayer, age 28, #29

H2H 1-0
Only meeting: Dubai 2011, Djokovic won 7-5, 6-1
Have never met on grass.

Djokovic has had a very easy slam and has avoided anyone who can trouble him thus far. Federer and the finalist are the only players I see in his way. He dismantled Troicki. He is playing the best of anyone in the tournament and living up to his ranking. Unless a huge shock occurs, Mayer is gone in 3 or 4 sets. Probably 3. A one sided affair.

Federer v Youzhny Prediction was correct

Federer, age 30, #3
Youzhny, age 30, #33

H2H 13-0
Last meeting: Halle 2012, Federer won 6-1, 6-4
Have met on grass 5 times. Four at Halle, one at Wimbledon 2011.
In all 13 matches, Youzhny has managed to take just 3 sets from Federer.

Despite the doom mongers out there, with or without a dodgy back, Youzhny is finished. That is all.
Apart from being lumped in Djokovic's half yet again, Federer fans like myself cannot complain too much about his draw this year. It has been a lot kinder than some of them of late. Federer needs to get this match out of the way fast and prepare for Djokovic. I will see how Federer is feeling in and after this match before making predictions on the semi.

Ferrer v Murray Prediction was incorrect

Ferrer, age 30, #5
Murray, age 25, #4

H2H 5-5
Last meeting: French Open 2012, Ferrer won 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-2
Have never met on grass.

This one is another tough to call. I have been unimpressed with Murray this tournament... I don't think he has it in him to get to the final, let alone win it. He is waiting to be found out imho and Ferrer, in his current form, might just be the man to do it. Both players are pretty evenly matched, but Ferrer has won their last 2. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go to 5 sets, but I am going to go Ferrer in 4. I just like his current form and I think he has it in him to topple Andy at this stage. Ferrer surprised me by the way he blew Del Potro off the court and I cannot see Murray competing against Ferrer if he brings that game to the Quarter Final. Can Murray win this match? Of course he can... he is more than capable on a given day of beating Ferrer... we will see!

Tsonga v Kohlschreiber Prediction was correct

Tsonga, age 27, #6
Kohlschreiber, age 28, #30

H2H 5-1
Last meeting: Monte Carlo Masters 2012, Tsonga won 6-2, 6-4
Have never met on grass.

This is the match of the QF in my opinion. Kohlschreiber has been in excellent form and is certainly capable of a surprise final appearance. Standing in his way and weighing... (oh sorry wrong sport) is Muham...I mean Tsonga, who he has a poor record against and who is looking very good as my 3rd favourite for the title. I cannot call this one at all. I would have to go with Tsonga based on their past matches and on their respective abilities, but all that means nothing if Kohlschreiber brings his top level to the match. Tsonga has had some shaky moments along with some displays of absolute brilliance. I will go Tsonga in 4 and I've backed him for the final since Round 3, but nothing would surprise me with the way Kohlschreiber is playing.

Premature Speculation

However I will make my predictions.

Djokovic in 3

Youzhny in 4

Murray in 3

Kohlschreiber in 4 against either.

Outside Murray-Ferrer other 3 QF is a surprise line-up, In FO almost all top seeds showed up to the 2nd week and this around its almost the quite opposite at QF stage.

Ferrer vs. Murray - really a tough one to call, but its all on Murray's mind, in grass he feels he is the better player and hence he will play better and in my view will win it.

At FO Murray felt he is not best suited for clay and played very passively and Ferrer made him pay, this time around Andy will attack him,the world is different when your mind starts to believe and lets see if that happens.

I am not sure if Murray will be able to pull it off in three. Ferrer is pretty good grass or not. I didn't expect him to come this far especially after the first game v JMDP. I think he can win it. Murray has been up and down. Cilic was obviously tired yesterday (no excuse really but a huge factor) and to come back at a set and 3-1 down is not the easiest to do. Murray should not take too out of that win. Baghdatis had some good chances and it could well have been a 5 set match that night.

Federer's match could go either way. Not liking how well Youzhny is playing this year!

Djokovic seems to be the only one cruising here. He has not been challenged but I think he is playing freely now. He knows Nadal is out and this tournament is his. He can beat Federer now with ease unlike even upto last year where they were close matches, he knows Murray is nowhere near his level and the rest in the draw are not a danger except Tsonga. Tsonga can make a good match if they meet but I expect what happened at RG to follow. That's Tsonga for you really.

Murray in 3... v. unlikely...

I like my predictions as the tournament goes into the final days so hre goes my forecast:

Djokovic in 4

Federer in 3

Murray in 5

Tsonga in 4

For the viewing public, I think the potential semi-final matches of Djokovic vs Federer and Murray vs Tsonga would provide the best spectacle but I reckon I might get one of the above 4 potential semi finalists wrong, looking forward to the quarters first though!

Seifer Almasy wrote:I have been unimpressed with Murray this tournament

If Murray's form against Davydenko and the last set and a half against Cilic leaves you "unimpressed" then either you're not a Tennis fan or never prepared to like Murray's play

I wonder which it is

FedsFan wrote:I am not sure if Murray will be able to pull it off in three. Ferrer is pretty good grass or not. I didn't expect him to come this far especially after the first game v JMDP. I think he can win it. Murray has been up and down. Cilic was obviously tired yesterday (no excuse really but a huge factor) and to come back at a set and 3-1 down is not the easiest to do. Murray should not take too out of that win. Baghdatis had some good chances and it could well have been a 5 set match that night.

Federer's match could go either way. Not liking how well Youzhny is playing this year!

Djokovic seems to be the only one cruising here. He has not been challenged but I think he is playing freely now. He knows Nadal is out and this tournament is his. He can beat Federer now with ease unlike even upto last year where they were close matches, he knows Murray is nowhere near his level and the rest in the draw are not a danger except Tsonga. Tsonga can make a good match if they meet but I expect what happened at RG to follow. That's Tsonga for you really.

FedsFan. Other than Nole and first round Fed, surely Murray's Davydenko form and the last set and a half against Cilic, was some of the best play we've seen? I dunno what more people expect off Murray and start to get a bit narky as he's always viewed more harshly than others.

Let's remember that all of his opponents have been of some pedigree having reached at least the QF's of a Slam

I believe there is another shock left in this tournament, and I believe it will happen in this round because of Tsonga's long match, back problem and the excellent form of his QF opponent. However, if Fish makes it through then I would back him as he would be riding a wave if he knocks big Jo out.

Djokovic in 3

Federer in 4

Murray in 4

Kohlschreiber in 5

Danny_1982 wrote:I believe there is another shock left in this tournament, and I believe it will happen in this round because of Tsonga's long match, back problem and the excellent form of his QF opponent. However, if Fish makes it through then I would back him as he would be riding a wave if he knocks big Jo out.

Djokovic in 3

Federer in 4

Murray in 4

Kohlschreiber in 5

Agreed, Kohlschrieber is a very classy player on his day - similar to Gasquet and Tsonga could be in all kinds of trouble. He trounced Murray a couple of years ago and I'm glad the Scot is playing Ferrer who know each other very well

It's the kind of game that Tsonga loses

banbrotam wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:I have been unimpressed with Murray this tournament

If Murray's form against Davydenko and the last set and a half against Cilic leaves you "unimpressed" then either you're not a Tennis fan or never prepared to like Murray's play

I wonder which it is

Another one on the foe list people.

I love ignorant bias.

The key to being a billy no mates

Banbro, we are part of Seifer's enemey's list I don't know if I will be able to sleep at night. Maybe we can have an Adam Sandler and Steve buschemi moment in the movie Billy Madison, if we say we are sorry he might take the lipstick off and take us of the enemies list.

But back to the main part of the post. I actually think Novak has the most difficult opponent. People underestimate Mayer but i think he is a tough opponent. He has good feel and touch in the forecourt, a very good serve and a lot of variety. Is in the quarters for a reason. i think he takes a set and this is a nervy 4 setter.


Murray crushes Ferrer in the three sets on grass, on clay and hardcourt Ferrer would stand a better shot.

I love Youzhny but can't see him beating federer here at wimby. If Roger is healthy he goes through in 3 or 4 routine sets.

As for Tsonga and Kohlschreiber this a tough won I will go with the bigger server Tsonga. But I would not be stunned if Kohlbie pulls off the upset. He has a great backhand for faster surfaces and moves into the court well. Jo in 5 tough sets.

1. Djokovic wins this fairly easily; Mayer is a trooper but he's spent an awful lot of time of the tour achieveing very little, and has no form at Wimbledon since 2004.

2. Federer isn't healthy and will probably lose tomorrow. He'd have lost in the 4th round against any grinder and against anyone less flashy and profligate than Malisse. Sure, he was very crafty with his serves and variety but anything wide to his forehand he simply didn't run for it.

I obviously hope I'm wrong, and if he's in a semi-decent situation he may find a way, but a repeat of the Malisse condition will see him gone. Youzhny is no dope.

3. Murray takes this, but not without a scare. Ferrer will not feel intimidated by Murray (as he was against Nadal at RG, where he knew inside two games he was screwed) and will feel like a fight. 4 sets, or more.

4. Tsonga, I think, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Kohlschreiber win. He's perhaps the toughest opponent a favourite has, maybe just tougher than Ferrer.

Djokovic 3
Federer 4
Murray 4
Tsonga 5

BTW - Tsonga looks nothing like Muhammed Ali and it irritates me that people think so!

The real final of this W will be the SF Fed-Djoko.

banbrotam wrote: If Murray's form against Davydenko and the last set and a half against Cilic leaves you "unimpressed" then either you're not a Tennis fan or never prepared to like Murray's play

As a Djoko fan, I'm beginning to become slightly worried by Murray's improving form.

If you were to plot a chart of his form this tournament, there would be lots of peaks and troughs, but the peaks are becoming increasingly high and increasingly long.

I'd still make Novak favourite should they meet but the gap is narrowing in my opinion.

The gap is huge... If Murray wins this slam I promise I will never mention Nadal or Murray again in a negative fashion.

He has no chance. Federer is your danger man.

Seifer Almasy wrote:The gap is huge... If Murray wins this slam I promise I will never mention Nadal or Murray again in a negative fashion.

He has no chance. Federer is your danger man.

MURRAY If only for the above.

Good luck, you will need it.

HM Murdoch wrote:

banbrotam wrote: If Murray's form against Davydenko and the last set and a half against Cilic leaves you "unimpressed" then either you're not a Tennis fan or never prepared to like Murray's play

As a Djoko fan, I'm beginning to become slightly worried by Murray's improving form.

If you were to plot a chart of his form this tournament, there would be lots of peaks and troughs, but the peaks are becoming increasingly high and increasingly long.

I'd still make Novak favourite should they meet but the gap is narrowing in my opinion.

I agree Murdoch, I fear Murray and the home crowd more than I fear federer as crazy as that sounds. Roger has not looked like the six time champion of this event, hopefully his back is ok and he can play quality tennis. Novak likes to be liked by the crowd and doesn't like it when the crowd goes against him but he is so experienced now it probably won't matter a lick. Still Murray might be carried by the crowd if he starts hot and gets on top of the match then Novak could be in trouble and in for a front. I still would favor Novak in that matchup but that is what the final is starting to look like.

Jahu wrote:The real final of this W will be the SF Fed-Djoko.

Yup, wholeheartedly agree with this.

That's not to say the other matches are insignificant but the No.1 vs the No.3 is the highest possible seeds you will get meeting @ Wimbledon (should it happen). Fed is actually going to be No.2 next week so it's the No.1 vs the No.2 in reality. It's going to hopefully be a great match but like a lot of the pessimists on the forum, I fear we're going to see a lackluster Federer put to the sword by Djokovic (as happened @ the French).

That's why I'm really hoping we get vintage Fed tomorrow when he plays Youzhny. Straight sets is not only a good statement of intent but also shows Fed is recovering well and may well be fully ready for the Djoko threat. The Delpo match @ the French sums up the potential risk: Fed winning may seem great but if he's taken to 5 sets by a guy he's nearly always owned then that doesn't bode well. An efficient easy win gives some hope he can eek out the win over Djoko but a tough match with Youzhny, a guy he's always beaten would be terrible. Let's not forget, out of the top seeds, Fed has got the lowest rank guy to play tomorrow so there's little excuse for putting in a limp performance unless he's given up on winning Wimbledon which would be sad. Tomorrow he either shows us he's got the desire to win, or we can start writing the obituaries!

Not yet... US open remains his best chance after this. And he has a very good chance there.

HM Murdoch wrote:

banbrotam wrote: If Murray's form against Davydenko and the last set and a half against Cilic leaves you "unimpressed" then either you're not a Tennis fan or never prepared to like Murray's play

As a Djoko fan, I'm beginning to become slightly worried by Murray's improving form.

the only thing a Djoker fan should be worried of is that he hasn't played a very good calibre player in his last 2 rounds.

Infact the closest challenge he had was the youngster Harrison.

he really needs Florian to push him in the qf cause an easy win will not tune him up properly for the semis and final.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:

he really needs Florian to push him in the qf cause an easy win will not tune him up properly for the semis and final.

A more sophisticated version of the Fognini effect I imagine?

Seifer Almasy wrote:Not yet... US open remains his best chance after this. And he has a very good chance there.

Fed's obituaries for Wimbledon, not the USO. I agree with the prevailing view that the USO represents Fed's best chance at the slams. However, given that he only has to get through Djokovic instead of both Djokovic and Nadal, what he has now is an excellent opportunity. It's not certain, even if he keeps #2 spot that he may face just Djokovic (instead of both) but obviously it will help his chances massively if he does. I'm just baffled though, @ the Aussie Open, he got to the semis without dropping a set but through RG & Wimbledon he's dropped sets left, right and centre. Something isn't quite right but hopefully if he does exit Wimbledon @ the semis he will get ready to mount a potent challenge @ USO and perhaps the Olympics, as a BO3 may help him more than Djokovic or Nadal.

Something's not riight, all right. He couldn't bend his back on serve for a start.

barrystar wrote:

Josiah Maiestas wrote:

he really needs Florian to push him in the qf cause an easy win will not tune him up properly for the semis and final.

A more sophisticated version of the Fognini effect I imagine?

Naughty!

As a Djokovic fan two things give me a great deal of hope. One his serving and second is how well he is hitting his forehand. His backhand is usually there in pretty much every match. But this season the matches and tournaments he struggles in it is often his forehand that goes off. Which is odd because the shot is very strong he just has prone to some up and down matches on this side this year which he hasn't had many of in the last couple of years on that wing. Against Troicki Novak served 75 percent first serves and hit 31 winners v. 11 errrors. Now Troicki is an easy matchup for Djoko but throughout the tournament the forehand has looked reliable like the 2011 forehand.


These are the two areas that I have found most encouraging with his performance so far. His return, backhand, and movement are so strong that if the serve and forehand are clicking you are going to have a very tough time beating him on any surface. That being said if Fed moves and serves well against Youzhny then he will still represent a very big challenge. Roger always does have a punchers chance especially on a faster court because has the weapons and variety to give Novak different looks. So I will be focussing on two things to watch for in the Quarters. How fed moves and serves and how Djoko is serving and hitting the forehand, if Djoko continues with good form and Roger is moving and serving well then we are in for a very good semi.

To defend his membership of the 'big four', Murray should block Ferrer's road to the Wimbledon final as Rafa won't be able to do it this time!

As much as I like Ferrer's fighting spirit and determination, it would make me a little sad if grinders like him have a shot at winning Wimbledon. I don't want to turn this into another 'slow conditions' debate, but if Ferrer makes it to the final it's a sign that something is really wrong with the conditions.

prostaff85 wrote:To defend his membership of the 'big four', Murray should block Ferrer's road to the Wimbledon final as Rafa won't be able to do it this time!

As much as I like Ferrer's fighting spirit and determination, it would make me a little sad if grinders like him have a shot at winning Wimbledon. I don't want to turn this into another 'slow conditions' debate, but if Ferrer makes it to the final it's a sign that something is really wrong with the conditions.

Well he blew DP off, yup DP is no legend in grass still Ferrer to do a cake walk was unexpected.

prostaff85 wrote:To defend his membership of the 'big four', Murray should block Ferrer's road to the Wimbledon final as Rafa won't be able to do it this time!

As much as I like Ferrer's fighting spirit and determination, it would make me a little sad if grinders like him have a shot at winning Wimbledon. I don't want to turn this into another 'slow conditions' debate, but if Ferrer makes it to the final it's a sign that something is really wrong with the conditions.

Murray will crush ferrer on grass, you guys are very negative about his prospects it seems. Ferrer does have certain attributes that help him on a grass court. He hits the ball early, he hits it flat, he is an excellent mover and returner. Movement is very improtant on a grass court almost as important as having a big serve. Plus the grass helps ferrer in that it makes his first serve a little bit more dangerous. This is the dichotemy sometimes fast conditions help the little guy and sometimes slow conditions help the power player, it depends on the player. That being said Ferrer is not a great grass court player he was fortunate in that Del PO is really weak on the grass. I think this is his first time past the third round. Nothing earth shaking going on I would be stunned if Ferrer did better than a set against Murray.

Youzhny ought to be no trouble for Fed, if Rog is fit. Tsonga will have to avoid his nasty habit of chucking in occasional absolutely awful serving games if he's to overcome Cabbageshredder.
Djoko should be fine against the other German, which leaves Murray-Ferrer. I thought Ferrer played wonderfully against del P but Andy's movement will be far, far better than JMDP's. Murray in four.

Mayer really crushed Gasquet for a couple of sets now if Djoker fans expect an easy ride because of the relatively big gap in rankings they will be sorely upset.

This is unquestionably the first really good server and volleyer he has met.

S&V on Wimbledon 2012 = getting battered.

Florian really hasn't been in trouble with his style of play yet BB.

He is alot more difficult to hit past than Stepanek and Troicki

I also think meyer presents some unique challenges. I think it is going to be a nervy four sets. I am Djoko fan certainly don't think it will be easy eventhough Novak is playing well. He is a better player Mayer than his ranking and record this year show and I think his game does suit wimbeldon. I don't know if he is as aggressive a volleyer as stepanek but he will look to get in a great deal. His serve is pretty good to and a nice flat backhand. So JM I agree with you I think it is actually a pretty tricky matchup on grass.

bogbrush wrote:

2. Federer isn't healthy and will probably lose tomorrow.

There was no hope for Youzhny. I can't believe some of you gave him any chance with his record v Roger. Roger played brilliantly.

Mayer gave Djok some trouble but he has no bottle whatsoever.

I got 3/4 of the semi-finalist winners right so far: Federer, Djokovic & Tsonga. Just Murray left and he's looking good! Plus I got Fed right in straight sets, also Tsonga right in 4, Novak in 4 was slightly out but just by a set....Murray may turn into 5 but still even if 4, just a set out. Looks like I may get all the semi finalists right....!

I also got 3/4.... Murray was v lucky indeed!