The Critical End - SF Discussion

First topic message reminder :

So we come to the critical end of the tournament. I will give a quick review of each of the matches with my prediction.

Djokovic v Federer

Djokovic,age 25, #1
Federer, age 30, #3

H2H 12-14
Last meeting: French Open 2012, Djokovic won 6-4, 7-5, 6-3
Have never met on grass.

Djokovic was a clear tournament winner for me until his match with Mayer... then I saw how vulnerable he is on grass. And he is. He has not been tested and that is not a good thing for him. The question is, can an aging Federer keep up with him and serve well enough to win? He will surely get many chances to break... and his game looked pretty good against Youzhny... If Djokovic does beat Federer it is likely he will win the whole thing... but Federer is not done yet. He has the variety, the crowd, the experience and game to beat Djokovic. Expect this one to be a lot tougher than the French Open was for Djokovic.. I would have gone 4 sets to Djokovic yesterday but today I am going 4 sets to Federer. I think his will to win and the surface will aid him.

Murray v Tsonga

Murray, age 25, #4
Tsonga, age 27, #6

H2H 5-1
Last meeting: Queens 2011, Murray won 3-6, 7-6(2), 6-4
Have met twice on grass, Murray beating Tsonga both times.

Forget the head to head for this one. Murray is going out. He was extremely lucky to beat Ferrer but tsonga has the serve and weaponry to take him out. He is looking better now than their last meeting in 2011 and I expect this one to be 4 sets to Tsonga. Tsonga has managed to challenge Murray on grass but this year I think he will beat him. Murray also has a huge expectation and pressure on his shoulders from the press and fans to get to the final and win it. I do not believe he has the variety to beat Tsonga in this match, or the bottle. His defensive play will be his undoing to the big man.
---------------------------

A Djok v Murray final would be a bad ad for grass tennis.. 2 boring baseline sluggers... On the other hand, a Fed v Tsonga final would be a victory for grass tennis. This year, instead of 1,2,3,4 we have 1,3,4,5 seed wise. Let us hope we get a Fed v Tsonga match that this tournament deserves.

Read somewhere it's Fed v Djok first, but it doesn't say on the Wimb site.

reckoner wrote:Read somewhere it's Fed v Djok first, but it doesn't say on the Wimb site.

Really? I'd have thought they'd have put that match on second, being as it held more worldwide interest.

I don't care either way to be honest, gonna be a great day no matter what order they are.

reckoner wrote:Read somewhere it's Fed v Djok first, but it doesn't say on the Wimb site.

Brilliant, it makes more sense that it would be first because Murray vs Tsonga will get higher TV ratings if it's on in the evening and has the potential to be a longer match.

I see what you're saying barrystar but I'm not sure I'm in agreement. Nadal doesn't tend to do as well post Wimbledon, it's an established pattern throughout his career. Djokovic on the other hand has done a bit better than Nadal post Wimbledon overall in his career but not a lot better. I think the year so far has been where most of us expected Djokovic to be, done better @ the slams but not as good @ the Masters 1000 tournaments. If that holds, and that pattern has so far, (including the hard court tournaments of Dubai, IW & Miami) then it really depends on who the points of Cinci and Canada go to as well as the USO. Cinci & Canada is more important for Djokovic unless he expects a very good run @ the end of the season by winning 3 or 4 titles which he's not done before. Djokovic's main issue is if Fed keeps winning titles then he has to as well. Remember, Fed has not reached any of the slam finals this year, yet he's only 1, 000 behind Nadal and Djokovic who have (as you say in this year's race for No.1). Djokovic probably needs 2 additional titles on top of holding Wimbledon or the USO (or perhaps both). The race will be a lot tighter than last year if Djokovic loses more of the titles he's defending.

Fed in 5
Murray in 3

This is Andy's year!

Fed is first at 1pm, followed by Andy.

Jahu wrote:Fed is first at 1pm, followed by Andy.

As I thought. Was a no brainer to me.

Already feeling excited about it....hope my excitement is justified!

luciusmann wrote:

Jahu wrote:Fed is first at 1pm, followed by Andy.

As I thought. Was a no brainer to me.

Already feeling excited about it....hope my excitement is justified!

Djoko will comfortably win in 3 or 4 sets I think

As they say 'hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

It Must Be Love wrote:Djoko will comfortably win in 3 or 4 sets I think

As they say 'hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

I am prepared for the worst, I expect Djokovic to win. Sure I've said so several times on the forum.

Win or lose, Federer has achieved what I wanted him to which is get to the semis and come as close as he can to taking the #2 ranking. With a little bit of help from Rosol, he has taken the latter much sooner than I'd hoped and due to his remarkable consistency, done the former. Therefore whether he wins or loses tomorrow, he's achieved what I feel was his overall aims for Wimbledon.

If he actually won Wimbledon, he would be hot favourite (to me @ least) to win the USO but given Fed's age, usually the USO is the last slam a former champion wins in their career. Not to forget his record @ Wimbledon in the last few years makes Wimbledon a hard ask to me. The USO is the real deal and I expect a serious run from him.

This is it... tomorrow is the biggest match for Federer and his fans for a long time It is make or break! It is also a big day for Murray fans... 2 corkers lined up!

If Fed plays a good game, Djokovic has it all to do. The lack of respect for Federer from some, despite all he has achieved is incredible. Even if Federer retires tomorrow he is going down as the greatest and a lot of his records will never be broken. No other player will achieve 33 cons quarter finals at gs level for starters.

Fed fans like me are happy, and I think it is sad that some can't wait to undermine the man at almost 31 years old.

Seifer Almasy wrote:Let us hope we get a Fed v Tsonga match that this tournament deserves.

The tournament deserves two players who have won their previous six matches. Pretty sure that is how it works.

laverfan wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Let us hope we get a Fed v Tsonga match that this tournament deserves.

The tournament deserves two players who have won their previous six matches. Pretty sure that is how it works.

A grass court deserves 2 players who can do the surface justice, not 2 players who play boring baseline slugging (that we see everywhere else). Stop being pedantic. It is a real shame they dumbed down all the surfaces and conditions because the Murrays and Nadals of the world wouldn't even be in contention back in 1980.

luciusmann wrote:

reckoner wrote:Read somewhere it's Fed v Djok first, but it doesn't say on the Wimb site.

Brilliant, it makes more sense that it would be first because Murray vs Tsonga will get higher TV ratings if it's on in the evening and has the potential to be a longer match.

I see what you're saying barrystar but I'm not sure I'm in agreement. Nadal doesn't tend to do as well post Wimbledon, it's an established pattern throughout his career. Djokovic on the other hand has done a bit better than Nadal post Wimbledon overall in his career but not a lot better. I think the year so far has been where most of us expected Djokovic to be, done better @ the slams but not as good @ the Masters 1000 tournaments. If that holds, and that pattern has so far, (including the hard court tournaments of Dubai, IW & Miami) then it really depends on who the points of Cinci and Canada go to as well as the USO. Cinci & Canada is more important for Djokovic unless he expects a very good run @ the end of the season by winning 3 or 4 titles which he's not done before. Djokovic's main issue is if Fed keeps winning titles then he has to as well. Remember, Fed has not reached any of the slam finals this year, yet he's only 1, 000 behind Nadal and Djokovic who have (as you say in this year's race for No.1). Djokovic probably needs 2 additional titles on top of holding Wimbledon or the USO (or perhaps both). The race will be a lot tighter than last year if Djokovic loses more of the titles he's defending.

I don't know lucius Federer is the one who has to sweep the indoor season not djokovic. If he wins anything at the end of the season it comes right off fed's point lead. Fed won everything in the indoors. And despite what you keep putting forward Novak has a very strong indoor record and how in the world do you come up with the proposition that he hasn't been much better than Nadal post wimbeldon. Nadal usually collapses after wimbeldon, Novak is not much better than Nadal after wimby. The man has won canada twice, been to the final of the USO once and won it once, won paris, won basel beating Roger, won Beijing, and won the year end masters. How is that a little better than Nadal who last year didn't win a tournament and usually has his biggest dry spell. Keep thinking Novak isn't a great indoor player, he really is, you will see. The results speak for themselves in my opinion. Last year he didn't have a great indoor season with a torn muscle in his back. That is about what it will take for Roger to finish year end #1 regardless of wimbeldon.

And you can say I am his PR guy if you like but you are just wrong. His track record indoors and post wimby speaks for itself.

Seifer Almasy wrote:

laverfan wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Let us hope we get a Fed v Tsonga match that this tournament deserves.

The tournament deserves two players who have won their previous six matches. Pretty sure that is how it works.

A grass court deserves 2 players who can do the surface justice, not 2 players who play boring baseline slugging (that we see everywhere else). Stop being pedantic. It is a real shame they dumbed down all the surfaces and conditions because the Murrays and Nadals of the world wouldn't even be in contention back in 1980.

Your subjectivity is not a measure of 'justice' is it? Dumbing down surfaces is a subjective discussion, driven by misinformation. BTW, in 1980s, even Federer would not be in contention, he was too young. He did win the Juniors in 1998, IIRC.

Adaptability of player to a surface is a measure of 'greatness'. Remember Federer winning Madrid on blue clay, because he adapted.

laverfan wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:

laverfan wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Let us hope we get a Fed v Tsonga match that this tournament deserves.

The tournament deserves two players who have won their previous six matches. Pretty sure that is how it works.

A grass court deserves 2 players who can do the surface justice, not 2 players who play boring baseline slugging (that we see everywhere else). Stop being pedantic. It is a real shame they dumbed down all the surfaces and conditions because the Murrays and Nadals of the world wouldn't even be in contention back in 1980.

Your subjectivity is not a measure of 'justice' is it? Dumbing down surfaces is a subjective discussion, driven by misinformation. BTW, in 1980s, even Federer would not be in contention, he was too young. He did win the Juniors in 1998, IIRC.

Adaptability of player to a surface is a measure of 'greatness'. Remember Federer winning Madrid on blue clay, because he adapted.

So when Wimbledon was slowed down in 2002, who has been the sole beneficiary of it?

My prediction not so stupid now is it... so called "Expert's" around here. How dare you write Fed off on grass!

I didn't right off Fed @ all but losing 6/7 of your matches don't give you confidence.

I did say I could see a plausible scenerio of Fed winning this in 4 but more likeing Djokovic in 4 or 5. Well I was wrong and I'm pleased I was.

Most commentators and most of the media were saying Fed was going to lose. The only unpredictable element was that they hadn't met on grass and that probably helped Fed more because he's the master on grass against nearly everyone (except Nadal).

Beautiful backhand down the line by Andy to get the break.

Looks like 50%

Nah, I am not worried about my prediction JUST YET!

Theyve both started well.

Murray has the break though.... tsonga not looking bad!

Ok so my argument that H2H didn't matter has blown up in my face, eh... I guess Murray really is a bad match up to Tsonga. And yeah, Tsonga aint at his usual level this match.
------

I am not done yet though!!!!

Don't write the big man off...

Fair play Murray, it took a lot to best my predictions this year. But now you face the best.

To those I said come with your tail between your legs, I now have to be man enough to say I was wrong. I have no problem with that

Seifer Almasy wrote:Fair play Murray, it took a lot to best my predictions this year. But now you face the best.

To those I said come with your tail between your legs, I now have to be man enough to say I was wrong. I have no problem with that

Please Please predict a Fed win