The Critical End - SF Discussion

First topic message reminder :

So we come to the critical end of the tournament. I will give a quick review of each of the matches with my prediction.

Djokovic v Federer

Djokovic,age 25, #1
Federer, age 30, #3

H2H 12-14
Last meeting: French Open 2012, Djokovic won 6-4, 7-5, 6-3
Have never met on grass.

Djokovic was a clear tournament winner for me until his match with Mayer... then I saw how vulnerable he is on grass. And he is. He has not been tested and that is not a good thing for him. The question is, can an aging Federer keep up with him and serve well enough to win? He will surely get many chances to break... and his game looked pretty good against Youzhny... If Djokovic does beat Federer it is likely he will win the whole thing... but Federer is not done yet. He has the variety, the crowd, the experience and game to beat Djokovic. Expect this one to be a lot tougher than the French Open was for Djokovic.. I would have gone 4 sets to Djokovic yesterday but today I am going 4 sets to Federer. I think his will to win and the surface will aid him.

Murray v Tsonga

Murray, age 25, #4
Tsonga, age 27, #6

H2H 5-1
Last meeting: Queens 2011, Murray won 3-6, 7-6(2), 6-4
Have met twice on grass, Murray beating Tsonga both times.

Forget the head to head for this one. Murray is going out. He was extremely lucky to beat Ferrer but tsonga has the serve and weaponry to take him out. He is looking better now than their last meeting in 2011 and I expect this one to be 4 sets to Tsonga. Tsonga has managed to challenge Murray on grass but this year I think he will beat him. Murray also has a huge expectation and pressure on his shoulders from the press and fans to get to the final and win it. I do not believe he has the variety to beat Tsonga in this match, or the bottle. His defensive play will be his undoing to the big man.
---------------------------

A Djok v Murray final would be a bad ad for grass tennis.. 2 boring baseline sluggers... On the other hand, a Fed v Tsonga final would be a victory for grass tennis. This year, instead of 1,2,3,4 we have 1,3,4,5 seed wise. Let us hope we get a Fed v Tsonga match that this tournament deserves.

banbrotam wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:In the unlikely event Murray beats Tsonga, he is gonna get his arse well and truly spanked in the final. I'd prefer to have Murray there than Tsonga if Fed goes through... just because I want Fed to get number 7... but if Tsonga does make it with Fed, being that they are my 2 fave players and infinitely better grass players (if this was actually grass and not the modern cheapo version) than Djok and Murray, I will be happy.

And the hits just keep on coming Of course Tsonga's a far better grass court player that's why Murray's beaten him twice on grass, reached four consecutive SF's to his two and lost to Murray at Queen's only last year

No if you read carefully Seifer states 'is it was actually grass and not the modern cheapo version.'

The media, fans, players, cows and David Cameron himself have all been fooled into thinking these green spikes were actually grass, but luckily the great Seifer has discovered that it is not so.

Siefer now joins the scientists at Cern in the weekly historical-discovery record books

Stunningly inaccurate BBC article up.

According to the Beeb, Djokovic has beaten Fed 14 times (thought Fed had beaten him 14 times?) and apparently Djokovic won the French Open semi last year. With such accuracy, you do wonder how you can respect the BBC! Even worse, I spotted another error, apparently he's won 13 grand slams, not 16.... Are the Beeb having a joke....who is this incompetent journalist...?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/18717245

luciusmann wrote:who is this incompetent journalist...?

Siefer? Josiah? Take your pick

banbrotam wrote:

luciusmann wrote:who is this incompetent journalist...?

Siefer? Josiah? Take your pick

Haha.....jersey?

I am taking Tsonga and Djokovic. I am hoping for dissappointing final for most fans and a great one for me. I think Andy looks vulnerable to me. Tsonga's game really works well on grass last year he really pushed Novak when Novak was at his best. I think his variety and power will be too much for Andy. Tsonga in 4 or 5.

Roger is really dangerous, Djokovic could easily lose this match. In my mind the key for him is to play clean behind his serve. His serve has been good this year but he seems to have a game or two every match where he gets goofy on serve and gets broken. He can't have a mental lapse like that. Fed has to serve lights out, but I go with Djokovic in 4 sets.

Where is Jersey? he was predicting no Nadal final everytime but didnt happen, but this time around it happened but he is not there.

The 13-time grand slam champion clashed with Serbia's Djokovic six years ago

Either he had 13 six years ago or that's a really bad journalist.

You'll be glad to hear SA that Fed has opened up a 890 point lead over Nadal in the rankings by making the semis so even if Nadal wins the Olympic gold (not a certainty by any means as it's on grass), Nadal still can't overtake Fed (Olympic gold gets you 750 points).

So Fed will remain #2 for at least a month, probably longer unless Nadal wins Canada or Cinci (unlikely) or both (even more unlikely), so it could be like this for a while! Importantly it maybe like this for the USO!

at least that helps for not meeting djok in semi but truth is im more concerned with titles... Lets face it, titles matter more than the ranking!

In Snooker, Ronnie O'Sullivan was laughed at as finished by likes of Craig, who couldn't wait to write him off when he slipped down rankings (mainly cause he didnt enter many events, he is getting old, wants to see kids). But then he came back won a rank event and is now the world champion after blowing them all away.

What would I rather, Ronnie as Token number 1 like that bore Selby or World Champion?

Same with Fed. I would trade in his WN1 for a WN20 if it meant he wins 2 more slams.

SA - you wouldn't meet Djokovic in a semi, but might meet Nadal.

If I was a fed fan, I'd rather play Djokovic than Nadal every time. Federer can beat Djokovic if he executes his game, Nadal is far tougher for him.

That's a big gap though, I'd be surprised if Nadal got anywhere near closing it before New York.

Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Seifer Almasy wrote:Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Nadal will be going down in USO in the finals to Fed but enroute he would beat Novak in the semi's , oh wait lets first dream about Wimbledon as USO is far away.

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Nadal will be going down in USO in the finals to Fed but enroute he would beat Novak in the semi's , oh wait lets first dream about Wimbledon as USO is far away.

Yeah right IC, i like Novak's chances against Nadal on the fast hardcourts of new york. Particularly if we are hearing correctly that the tendinitis is flaring up again in Nadal's knee.

luciusmann wrote:You'll be glad to hear SA that Fed has opened up a 890 point lead over Nadal in the rankings by making the semis so even if Nadal wins the Olympic gold (not a certainty by any means as it's on grass), Nadal still can't overtake Fed (Olympic gold gets you 750 points).

So Fed will remain #2 for at least a month, probably longer unless Nadal wins Canada or Cinci (unlikely) or both (even more unlikely), so it could be like this for a while! Importantly it maybe like this for the USO!

Not certain that Nadal has been this vulnerable from a points situation, for his Top 3 place, during the last three years. If Murray won Wimbledon (still a big "if" I know!!) then he gains more than 2000 points on the Spaniard

Now in fairness Murray has a lot of points to defend with his Canadian Masters win and a Slam SF, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Murray does better than Nadal all the way through to the end of the US Open, meaning that Nadal's No.3 spot is more vulnerable than we perhaps think

However, as usual I think Nadal will find a way to fight back

If he can reproduce the aggression and shot-making he displayed in the Australian Open semi V Djokovic at the start of this year then who can say he doesn't stand a chance?

Tsonga hasn't got the game to beat Murray in a 5 set match, his returning is not of a number 5 seed standard and I can see Murray winning in 4 sets and the score will be similar to the Ferrer match yesterday

socal1976 wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Nadal will be going down in USO in the finals to Fed but enroute he would beat Novak in the semi's , oh wait lets first dream about Wimbledon as USO is far away.

Yeah right IC, i like Novak's chances against Nadal on the fast hardcourts of new york. Particularly if we are hearing correctly that the tendinitis is flaring up again in Nadal's knee.

I'd like to know when is the last season that Nadal did not complain about tendonitis? Anyone?

TopoftheChops wrote:Tsonga hasn't got the game to beat Murray in a 5 set match, his returning is not of a number 5 seed standard and I can see Murray winning in 4 sets and the score will be similar to the Ferrer match yesterday

Easier opponent for Murray than Ferrer I think - just wait for Tsonga's form to dip.

reckoner wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Nadal will be going down in USO in the finals to Fed but enroute he would beat Novak in the semi's , oh wait lets first dream about Wimbledon as USO is far away.

Yeah right IC, i like Novak's chances against Nadal on the fast hardcourts of new york. Particularly if we are hearing correctly that the tendinitis is flaring up again in Nadal's knee.

I'd like to know when is the last season that Nadal did not complain about tendonitis? Anyone?

2011.

But when he did in 2010, well he cleaned up in the Slams and the Clay

Never a good omen.

Murray has to target Tsonga's backhand, he can probably use the drop shot more against Tsonga as he is not the best passer in the world either

legendkillarV2 wrote:

reckoner wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Nadal will be going down in USO in the finals to Fed but enroute he would beat Novak in the semi's , oh wait lets first dream about Wimbledon as USO is far away.

Yeah right IC, i like Novak's chances against Nadal on the fast hardcourts of new york. Particularly if we are hearing correctly that the tendinitis is flaring up again in Nadal's knee.

I'd like to know when is the last season that Nadal did not complain about tendonitis? Anyone?

2011.

But when he did in 2010, well he cleaned up in the Slams and the Clay

Never a good omen.

Well he has cleaned up on clay (wasn't it ever thus?), but hardly so on the slams this year, and whilst only a fool would count him out, he's not looking the favourite for the US Open at the moment either (he's clearly still a favourite). For the first time I can remember it looks as though the US Open draw is going to be very important for Nadal - already 890 points behind Fed it's looking as though he'll be No. 3 seed and he really won't want to be on Djoko's side of the draw.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

reckoner wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Nadal will be going down in USO in the finals to Fed but enroute he would beat Novak in the semi's , oh wait lets first dream about Wimbledon as USO is far away.

Yeah right IC, i like Novak's chances against Nadal on the fast hardcourts of new york. Particularly if we are hearing correctly that the tendinitis is flaring up again in Nadal's knee.

I'd like to know when is the last season that Nadal did not complain about tendonitis? Anyone?

2011.

But when he did in 2010, well he cleaned up in the Slams and the Clay

Never a good omen.

Fair enough 2011 was a hamstring not tendonitis. Let's refine the question - what's the last season Nadal did not complain about an injury?

reckoner wrote:

Fair enough 2011 was a hamstring not tendonitis. Let's refine the question - what's the last season Nadal did not complain about an injury?

What you need to understand is that every player suffers periodic injuries. The only difference is that if it is Nadal, Federer, Djokovic or even Murray with an injury it is big news in the media and sure to be reported in all forms of the media. Other second or third tier players such as Florian Mayer, Bernard Tomic, Marin Cilic with injuries is not really going to be reported by the media hence why it would appear (falsely so) that the top players are injured more frequently than lesser players.

Good point Craig, the top guys are under a media microscope where midranking guys dissappear for weeks at a time and everyone is like what happened to so and so? The intense media coverage of the top guys does kind lead to a bit of hysterical coverage of all of their issues on and off the court.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

reckoner wrote:

Fair enough 2011 was a hamstring not tendonitis. Let's refine the question - what's the last season Nadal did not complain about an injury?

What you need to understand is that every player suffers periodic injuries. The only difference is that if it is Nadal, Federer, Djokovic or even Murray with an injury it is big news in the media and sure to be reported in all forms of the media. Other second or third tier players such as Florian Mayer, Bernard Tomic, Marin Cilic with injuries is not really going to be reported by the media hence why it would appear (falsely so) that the top players are injured more frequently than lesser players.

Riiight so there's nothing exceptional about Nadal's camp advertising an injury EVERY year? Other players do indeed have niggles and injuries - they don't hold press conferences and have announcements for each one though.

Or perhaps they do hold press conferences but the press don't see it as newsworthy ie World No.20 has an injury. That is the point here.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Or perhaps they do hold press conferences but the press don't see it as newsworthy ie World No.20 has an injury. That is the point here.

Well that IS the point and they don't! Ask Roddick.

Err evidence that they don't please. Besides you cannot tell me that the media will report on an in injury on a Florian Mayer etc player. They will if it were one of THE top players.

Errr it's been discussed ad infinitum and the evidence is a google away, look for Roddick's comments.

Because it is worthy of discussion that is why it is discussed ad infinitum.

reckoner wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

reckoner wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Nadal will be going down in USO in the finals to Fed but enroute he would beat Novak in the semi's , oh wait lets first dream about Wimbledon as USO is far away.

Yeah right IC, i like Novak's chances against Nadal on the fast hardcourts of new york. Particularly if we are hearing correctly that the tendinitis is flaring up again in Nadal's knee.

I'd like to know when is the last season that Nadal did not complain about tendonitis? Anyone?

2011.

But when he did in 2010, well he cleaned up in the Slams and the Clay

Never a good omen.

Fair enough 2011 was a hamstring not tendonitis. Let's refine the question - what's the last season Nadal did not complain about an injury?

2002

reckoner wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

reckoner wrote:

Fair enough 2011 was a hamstring not tendonitis. Let's refine the question - what's the last season Nadal did not complain about an injury?

What you need to understand is that every player suffers periodic injuries. The only difference is that if it is Nadal, Federer, Djokovic or even Murray with an injury it is big news in the media and sure to be reported in all forms of the media. Other second or third tier players such as Florian Mayer, Bernard Tomic, Marin Cilic with injuries is not really going to be reported by the media hence why it would appear (falsely so) that the top players are injured more frequently than lesser players.

Riiight so there's nothing exceptional about Nadal's camp advertising an injury EVERY year? Other players do indeed have niggles and injuries - they don't hold press conferences and have announcements for each one though.

Which press conference was held in the last month exactly
I must have missed it

And of course he had to announce it, he can't just cancel an exhibition with Djokovic for nothing can he?

He had to make up a reason to avoid getting beat again.

Losing a bunch of points to a novice will take him ages to get over. Might aswell focus on his fishing expeditions until the clay season.

It is a sad excuse from the man with no class. And may I remind people again... Tennis involves fitness. Even if he was injured, it is his own schedule and game play that causes them. Sorry.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

reckoner wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

reckoner wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Nadal will be going down in USO in the finals to Fed but enroute he would beat Novak in the semi's , oh wait lets first dream about Wimbledon as USO is far away.

Yeah right IC, i like Novak's chances against Nadal on the fast hardcourts of new york. Particularly if we are hearing correctly that the tendinitis is flaring up again in Nadal's knee.

I'd like to know when is the last season that Nadal did not complain about tendonitis? Anyone?

2011.

But when he did in 2010, well he cleaned up in the Slams and the Clay

Never a good omen.

Fair enough 2011 was a hamstring not tendonitis. Let's refine the question - what's the last season Nadal did not complain about an injury?

2002

I bet when Nadal wanted to miss school his family would put adverts in the local paper to let his teachers know...

Rafael Nadal 11 slam wins = no class?

Please stop it or my sides will split from laughing yet here you are slagging him off at every turn - a distinct and definite lack of class on your behalf.

Seifer Almasy wrote:It is a sad excuse from the man with no class. And may I remind people again... Tennis involves fitness. Even if he was injured, it is his own schedule and game play that causes them. Sorry.

Nadal said after the Rosol match he was '100% fit heading into Wimbledon' and that the only reason he lost was because 'Rosol played better than him.' At no point has Nadal said this injury affected him for the Rosol match at all.
Now, how about we get out the transcript after Fed's loss to Berdych 2010

The only thing that was injured was his ego and arrogance.

He said his foot was broke when he called the trainer during his win over Potro. What a sad man.

reckoner wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

reckoner wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

reckoner wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Nah I wouldnt. I think Fed can beat Nadal much easier on grass or US than Djokovic. Nadal is on the decline, mark my words. I will agree Nadal is in Roger's head more and he is a bad match up... but I knew Nadal was going out early... and he will at US too.

Nadal will be going down in USO in the finals to Fed but enroute he would beat Novak in the semi's , oh wait lets first dream about Wimbledon as USO is far away.

Yeah right IC, i like Novak's chances against Nadal on the fast hardcourts of new york. Particularly if we are hearing correctly that the tendinitis is flaring up again in Nadal's knee.

I'd like to know when is the last season that Nadal did not complain about tendonitis? Anyone?

2011.

But when he did in 2010, well he cleaned up in the Slams and the Clay

Never a good omen.

Fair enough 2011 was a hamstring not tendonitis. Let's refine the question - what's the last season Nadal did not complain about an injury?

2002

I bet when Nadal wanted to miss school his family would put adverts in the local paper to let his teachers know...

You keep on going on about how he held a press conference about this injury.. he didn't even hold a press conference.
Do some research
What else is he meant to do, not turn up for his exhibition match without reason...

Seifer Almasy wrote:It is a sad excuse from the man with no class. And may I remind people again... Tennis involves fitness. Even if he was injured, it is his own schedule and game play that causes them. Sorry.

I find it a sad excuse when someone calls a person they never met a scumbag, but hey doesn't say much for your class now does it.

I'll bet when Nadal's running late for the pub his team fliers the bar to let his mates know he's on his way...

reckoner wrote:I'll bet when Nadal's running late for the pub his team fliers the bar to let his mates know he's on his way...

Still avoiding my questions Reckoner
No surprises there

I'll bet when Rafa wants breakfast he puts billboards up around the local supermarket to remind them to stock milk...

reckoner wrote:I'll bet when Nadal's running late for the pub his team fliers the bar to let his mates know he's on his way...

Well I would.

I begrudge buying the first round!!

reckoner wrote:I'll bet when Rafa wants breakfast he puts billboards up around the local supermarket to remind them to stock milk...

I'll give you that one.

reckoner wrote:I'll bet when Rafa wants breakfast he puts billboards up around the local supermarket to remind them to stock milk...

You are evil

It Must Be Love wrote:

reckoner wrote:I'll bet when Rafa wants breakfast he puts billboards up around the local supermarket to remind them to stock milk...

I'll give you that one.

barrystar wrote:Well he has cleaned up on clay (wasn't it ever thus?), but hardly so on the slams this year, and whilst only a fool would count him out, he's not looking the favourite for the US Open at the moment either (he's clearly still a favourite). For the first time I can remember it looks as though the US Open draw is going to be very important for Nadal - already 890 points behind Fed it's looking as though he'll be No. 3 seed and he really won't want to be on Djoko's side of the draw.

I'm very intrigued because it's very likely the rankings will affect the draws @ Canada & Cinci as well as the USO. I don't know how it works for the Olympics, it may well be different for that (nationality based)? The crucial thing is that Nadal is probably going to be placed on Djokovic's side of the draw for Cinci or Canada and that's great because Masters 1000 tournaments play the final, semi & quarters back to back so Djokovic and Nadal slogging it out in a semi would definitely help Fed. However, it may not happen, Nadal hasn't made the semis @ Canada/Cinci since 2010.

From a points perspective Nadal being on Fed's side of the draw @ the USO doesn't hinder Fed because he made the semi last year so he won't lose points if he loses in the semi to Nadal. Wimbledon is clearly important in deciding who will be No.1 for the summer but Canada & Cinci are important for Djokovic to hang onto YE No.1 because like last year, Djokovic (like Nadal) has a front loaded points base where means they acquire the vast majority of their points in the first 9 months and then add little else (not really been true for Fed). Regardless though, Fed is looking very likely to hold onto No.2 for some time. It will certainly be critical for his chances of winning the USO.

Hs the order of play for tomorrow been confirmed yet??

Well Djoko has drawn level with Nadal on points earned in the year so far - you've got to expect him to do better between now and the end of the year. Federer is almost exactly 1,000 behind them both - see http://live-tennis.eu/race .

It ought not to be forgotten that we are entering into what is usually the best time of the year for Murray too.

Therefore, if, and it's a big if, but if Djoko and Nadal start getting drawn against one another it's possible they'll cost one another points to Fed's benefit (subject to what Murray thinks about that vs. Fed).

If last year is anything to go by there is a chance of Djoko and Fed being No. 1 and No. 2 with something of a tussle between them and of Nadal being No. 3 well below them. Of course, Nadal may come back a bit stronger after his Wimbledon disappointment than he did last year, having played less tennis at this time of year than normal.