What effect will The Rugby Championship have on win ratio's

When you look at the current win rates of the top teams New Zealand stands out amongst the crowd with an 85% record, Argentina follows with a 66% win record, SA with a 65% win record, France with a 65% win record, Australia with a 61% win record, Ireland with a 59% in record, England with a 56% win record, Wales with a 46% win record, Scotland with a 39% win record and Italy with a 31% win record.

So what does the future hold for these ten teams?

From a form point of view Wales looks to be inproving their win ratio’s by virtue of some solid consistency over the past few years, Scotland might be coming out of the duldrims, England has been rebuilding for some time and now at last is looking to take the bull by the horns, France as always is a difficult one to predict, Ireland seems to be struggling, Australia has some depth concerns, and the Neanderthals is still a mystery.

But let’s look at some obvious reasons for those win ratio’s.

Since January 2003, Argentina have only played 9 of their 88 tests against SA, OZ and NZ
Since Jan 2003, Australia have played 52 of their 124 tests against SA and NZ
Since January 2003, South Africa have played 48 of their 117 tests against OZ and NZ
Since January 2003, New Zealand have played 50 of their 120 tests against SA and OZ.

So considering that Argentina will go from playing only 10% of their tests against the top 3 nations, they will now play 50% of their matches (considering 12 tests per year) against top three nations.

South Africa, Australia and New Zealand who have been playing about 42% of their matches against top 3 nations will now only play 33% on their matches against top three nations.

So regardless of form and considering that Argentina will take some years to become a top three/four nation, based on this chances are SA, NZ and OZ can be looking to increase their win percentages as much as 5%, and Argentina will take a significant drop in win ratio percentage.

Interesting, don’t you think?

Biltong wrote:
So regardless of form and considering that Argentina will take some years to become a top three/four nation

You seem to assume that they will inevitably become a top three/four nation eventually, because they've joined this championship. And others do too. But they don't even have a pro league or any teams in super rugby. They're going to struggle.

It's the same as what happened with Italy. They were actually really good in the 90's. But we waited to long to let them into the 6 Ntions. And by the time they got in their best players were retiring, and they've never really gotten anywhere in the tournament in over a decade. Now they've belatedly gotten teams into the PRO12 and their fitness has improved a bit but they still lose nearly all their games.

The Argentine golden generation has aged/retired. Scotland can go to Argentina and win a series. I don't think New Zealand, South Africa or Australia will have much trouble to be honest.

I don't think it is impossible either. The only thing I think we can assume is that the first number of years their overall win ratio will dip, and SA and OZ in particular will raise their win ratio's as it is now two much more winnable games where before it was a 40% chance of winning those two matches they played extra in the Tri Nations

Yes it is interesting and obviously will depend on Argentinas development.

But where Argie may drop off against 3N sides they may increase their % against non 3N sides by being a stronger side outside the top 3.

What interests me is the direction Argie chose to take after playing the very different styles of the 3N countries. I think they'll gradually change their approach to a more 15 man approach when they find they can't muscle the 3N sides as easily as they do elsewhere.

Being a very expressive sporting nation I think they'll want to have backs capable of matching that of the better 3N backs, moves etc.

Taylorman wrote:I think they'll want to have backs capable of matching that of the better 3N backs, moves etc.

Well we all want to have backs capable of matching the 3N backs. But wanting it doesn't make it so.

Playing them more often might...is the point.

Hi,Biltong confused percentage win/loss stats[source wikipedia]
New Zealand 75.36
South Africa 63.12
Argentina 58.44
England 57.03
France 55.28
Australia 52.37
Wales 51.64
Scotland 42.41
Ireland 41.91
Those are the official stats back at least in the case of NZ to 1903
As to runs and Rwc wins i don`t give a fig an All Black clean sweep would be nice.Being realistic the regulation two losses by them is more likely.Of course they could have another 2009 and lose 4 that would really have the media screaming for coaches heads.

Taylorman, I agree that playing these teams every year will help them. It's a good thing that they're in it. But it will take a long time. And it's also not ideal that so many Argentine players play in Europe. They should be playing in the Super 15. I fear they're gonna have a pretty demoralizing time of it for the first 10 years to be honest.

emack, didn't the All Blacks lose 5 tests in 2009? They lost to the Barbarians that year too.

ALL BLACKS lost first match versus France .won the return match the following week.Lost 3 matches in the 3Ns all to SA,won versus every other International side including not concedeing aTry in NH [in tests 2008,and 2009]finishing withthe thrashing of France at Nante.36-3. A n All Blacks side lost to the Barbarians.It was not a Test Match,nor the Full side,nor treated as a Test Match.

I was thinking that if Argentina lose ranking points in the Championship and Scotland claim a scalp during the AIs, could the Scots get what would be a crucial 8th place in the rankings ahead of the RWC seedings?

The Scots need a net gain of 1.29 points to overtake Argentina.

Sorry, that's not really 'on topic', but the Championship could affect more than the teams competing in it.

emack, I think Barbarians v New Zealand was counted as a test match.

Hound, I'm not sure Argentina will lose many points because they're much lower than their rivals, but one win and they stand to gain loads. It possible that Scotland could overtake them though. I'd say it's still possible that Scotland could overtake Ireland too actually.

emack2 wrote:Hi,Biltong confused percentage win/loss stats[source wikipedia]
New Zealand 75.36
South Africa 63.12
Argentina 58.44
England 57.03
France 55.28
Australia 52.37
Wales 51.64
Scotland 42.41
Ireland 41.91
Those are the official stats back at least in the case of NZ to 1903
As to runs and Rwc wins i don`t give a fig an All Black clean sweep would be nice.Being realistic the regulation two losses by them is more likely.Of course they could have another 2009 and lose 4 that would really have the media screaming for coaches heads.

Alan, I said last decade, in other words with the past setup of the three nations not since way back when.

I am looking at how the recent ratio's will be affected.

Feckless Rogue,the Barbarians is a Festival match,NOT and never has been a Test match.The NH may I doubt the SH.THE traditional Barbarians match all funds went to charity.The team was by Invatation only ,and one uncapped player always picked.It used to be made up of the Home Nation players,Long serving Touring side members like I.J.Clarke [first AllBlack to tour 10 years apart twice]or the Wallaby Colin Wyndham.The game not THE RESULT matters.Running Rugby ,long cut out passes,all Penalties tap and go not at goal,no doubt the ethos has been eroded over the years mores the pity.

Quickest way to get stats I've found is to use the Rugby Pick and go site.

Couple of clicks and you get an awful lot. Excellent filters when doing who vs who, who vs everyone over any given period. Has all major coaching stats at the click of a button. Projects how future rankings will look if so and so wins this or that.

Excellent for sxv slice and dice as well for any year/ team/ region etc.

There may be better sites but I doubt theyre as quick or as easy...

Try scrum.com if you want a bit more variety.

Expect Argentina to dip a bit and SA and and Aus to rise. Not sure about NZ we've had a bit of a golden era. Would love for it to continue...

What effect will it have on RWC viewing numbers too? When every four years is AUS,NZ,SA,ARG in the semi finals?

anotherworldofpain wrote:What effect will it have on RWC viewing numbers too? When every four years is AUS,NZ,SA,ARG in the semi finals?

Maybe us Europeans will get lucky and one of those four will sometimes knock one of the others out in the quarters?

There has been a NH side in each of previous four RWC finals, so it's possibly a little early to be talking of a Rugby Championship monopoly of the semi finals.

It will also affect the seeding though so chances are the 4 will get separated and better chance to making the final 4 without knocking each other out.

Aye, but it doesn't normally go to plan like that.

NH sides like to put a spanner in the works. We might not win it often (well, once) but we can sometimes beat or scupper the chances of the southern lot.