By end of 2014 - the next 9 slams

So crystal ball time...we have 1 slam left this year then lets say we look ahead 2 more years...2 more years that can still maybe involve Fed to a high level (depending....), Djoko/Murray clearly and Nadal if the inflammation in his knees gets under control again...or rather his head! (IMO)

9 slams is a lot to spread around...3 could help Fed get to 20, 5 could help Djokovic get to 10, Murray wants to win 1 of course...and then Nadal...FO and elsewhere?

So how do you see the next 9 slams up to end 2014 falling? Even split amongst the top 4? And who is likely to be the first guy outside top 4 to win one - or will they?

My thoughts....Federer = 0, Djokovic = 4-5, Nadal = 2, Murray = 1-2, someone outside Top 4 = 1 (perhaps Delpo).

Dont see Berdych doing it...Tsonga I'm not sure about either and he's not getting younger...Raonic - mmmm, not sure his game is coming on quick enough, who are the other threats for a slam?

just to add specifics on spread...
2012 USO - Djoko
2013 AO - Murray
2013 FO - Nadal
2013 Wimb - Nadal
2013 USO - Djoko
2014 AO - Djoko
2014 FO - Djoko
2014 Wimb - Djoko/Murray
2014 USO - Djoko

When I write it like that, I wonder if the split might be broader...perhaps more for Murray but he has to break his duck first.
I really dont see Fed winning anymore...and I think Nadal is going to struggle after 2013.

Hmmmmmmm this is a toughie.

Next 2 Australian Opens - Murray, Djokovic - Outside bet - Ferrer
Next 2 French Opens - Nadal 2 - Outside bet - Djokovic
Next 2 Wimbledons - Murray, Djokovic - Outside bet - Nadal
Next 3 US Opens - Murray, Djokovic 2 - Outside bet - Harrison

Harrison is a good outside bet...making good inroads out of the <21 players. I still dont think Tomic will cut it Top10.

I agree this is a tough one...obviously to pick individual slams, but even to get what the ratio might be is tough given all the factors at play with players careers going up and down. Linked to this is how much longer can top 3/4 domination continue. And what if Murray doesnt win a slam before FO next year...is his head going to drop, or will he just keep ploughing on until he gets there? I do think he'll break the duck...but from there I dont know how far he can go...alot depends on Nadal and other guys outside top 4...Djoko is probably a shoe-in for 50% of them.

I'm struggling to predict this years USO winner so you can excuse me for wanting to wait a bit. If you were to push me, with no certainty at all I'd say:

2012 USO - Djokovic/Murray
2013 AO - Djokovic if Murray wins USO, Murray if Djokovic wins the USO
2013 FO - Nadal
2013 Wimb - Djokovic/Federer
2013 USO - Murray if he wins 2012 USO, Djokovic if Murray wins AO
2014 AO - Murray
2014 FO - Nadal
2014 Wimb - Murray
2014 USO - Murray/Djokovic

I've noticed that players in any individual sport tend to go quiet for about a year when they win the sports biggest prizes. I'm being far too kind to Murray I think, but it would be lovely.

I also see Novak being the favorite to pick a fair number of slams. If I focused on the next nine slams i think 3 to 4 is a fair number with a possiblity of more. I am actually slightly less high on him than lydian. I think murray will win 2 of the next 9-12 slams. Nadal I think will get 2-3 of the next 9. That leaves 1 odd slam for someone else and that will probably be federer and not the field. So if I had to give a hardcount

9 total slams

Novak-4, Nadal-2, Roger-1, Murray-2

2012 USO - Djokovic/Murray
2013 AO - Murray
2013 FO - Nadal/Djokovic
2013 Wimb - Nadal
2013 USO - Djokovic
2014 AO - Djokovic
2014 FO - Nadal
2014 Wimb - Murray
2014 USO - Murray

So the domination continues! Just a matter of how Murray/Djokovic/Nadal will split em really...great chance for these guys to start amassing some more slams given Fed is bound to decline soon (IMO) and no one else is really coming through as a serious threat. So that's going to be nigh on 7-8 years of top 4 domination...quite amazing. Something makes me wonder about slowing surfaces and their effect on slam distribution.

2012 USO - Djokovic
2013 AO - Federer
2013 FO - Djokovic
2013 Wimb - Murray
2013 USO - Del Potro
2014 AO - Murray
2014 FO - <SomeOther>
2014 Wimb - Murray
2014 USO - Federer

Funny prior to the FO I guess it would have been seen as a Djokovic domination, after the FO a Nadal/Djokovic split, after Wimbledon Federer was very much back the picture. And now after the Olympics Murray's gold medal is looking shiny bright. Whoever wins the US Open is bound to be a lock in for the next nine slams...

2012 USO - Del Po/Murray [Finals]
2013 AO - Fed/Nadal
2013 Fo - Del Potro
2013 Wimbledon - Fed/Nadal
2013 USO - Murray
2014 AO - Djokovic
2014 FO - Djokovic/Nadal
2014 Wimbledon - Murray
2014 USO - Federer

Federer - 2, Del Potro -2 , Murray 2 , Nadal -2 , Djokovic -1,

in my view Djokovic will struggle to live upto his expectations as the other top 3 pile it up. Del Potro is my outside bet to win 2 of 9.

Fed might just fall under 20 and Djoko might finally win a FO in 2014 to complete a career slam.

lydian wrote:Harrison is a good outside bet...making good inroads out of the <21 players. I still dont think Tomic will cut it Top10.

I agree this is a tough one...obviously to pick individual slams, but even to get what the ratio might be is tough given all the factors at play with players careers going up and down. Linked to this is how much longer can top 3/4 domination continue. And what if Murray doesnt win a slam before FO next year...is his head going to drop, or will he just keep ploughing on until he gets there? I do think he'll break the duck...but from there I dont know how far he can go...alot depends on Nadal and other guys outside top 4...Djoko is probably a shoe-in for 50% of them.

Yeah but could you see a harrison, tomic or even Raonic lifting a slam in the next 2-3 years, I don't. They have a good shot at it in the future but the one that could do it in a short time frame might be Raonic. Simply because if he serves really hot he might be able to go on a streak of winning close sets and maybe getting a slam in the next couple of years, but even that is a stetretch. I think these guys aren't anywhere ready for major winning level, even for replicating it for just one fortnight.

Yes socal, and we had a thread a couple of weeks back discussing the paucity of young talent breaking through....i.e. are we in a talent-free zone compared to yesteryear, or is it just that much harder for young guys to break through like the others did?
The data for Murray, Novak and Nadal showed they tended to get to top 50-75 ranking by 19th birthday (similarly for other great players in the past too), but none of the current ones are anywhere near this which makes me feel they're just not as good and we could be headed where the women's game is for a while...except of course that thankfully we still have the top 4 current players around for a while yet.

Its hard to see beyond the current 4 winning slams in the timeframe of this OP (except Delpo on a hot streak). So one of them has a great opportunity to rack up some slams...

That is the thing lydian I don't think it is the paucity of young talent I think they look bad as you note when they get compared to Novak, Nadal, and Murray. Also the fitness and variety required to win on the tour today has pushed the average age of the stars up. Agassi in someways foreshadowed this by using and intense physical regimen to really extend his career till his mid thirties, Roger and many other top guys are having good success now in their late 20s and early 30s. In the past a tennis player was pretty much over the hill at 27. However in recent years it seems that even before the current crop that prime and window for tennis dominance has been pushed back.


This is contrary by the way to people who think that baseline rallies shorten careers. As the courts have gotten slower if anything singles players are lasting longer and playing better at later ages. Those who think that S and V tennis is easier on the body than lengthy baseline tennis I don't think have done a lot of serve and volleying because it is anything but easy on the body. One jarring change of direction at net can take a bigger toll on you than 100 baseline forehands. That is another thing I find amusing about the slow conditions and baseline game causing injuries. Baseline tennis may take more out of you cardiovascularly but S and V tennis takes a lot more out of your joints and in terms of pounding.

I can't believe barely anyone is picking Nadal to win the next 2 FO's. He could win it with 1 arm.

He could used to do that TSJ but he's getting older...he cant keep on at the same rate or ability.

Socal, I understand those arguments of fitness, etc, but I dont buy them completely. The game hasnt changed THAT much since 2006...when some of these guys were emerging - most of the surface changes occured between 2001-5 in my opinion. Djokovic, Murray and Nadal were able to get up to the top end of rankings by 19...but todays guys cant. Clearly the top 3 raised the bar and young guys are finding it hard to break through...but its not just them they have to compete against. They only have to beat guys ranked in the top200 to make good headway but they arent doing so...not every guy in top200 is like Nadal, etc.

So for me its lack of talent....talent finds the way. But it isnt doing.
The age aspect at the top end is due to slower surfaces...this helps the older guys because they dont need to rely on explosive, fast twitch movement the same. They can use general stamina, etc, to help them...and fitness is the one thing that can keep increasing with age unlike reflexes, explosvie movement. I discussed this at some length a couple of week back.

The Special Juan wrote:I can't believe barely anyone is picking Nadal to win the next 2 FO's. He could win it with 1 arm.

Erm I did.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I can't believe barely anyone is picking Nadal to win the next 2 FO's. He could win it with 1 arm.

Erm I did.

That's why I said "barely anyone" and not "no one". It's just you and me saying that (although someone had Nadal down for 2 possibly I think).

I also put him (Nadal) down for both French opens. Though I also put Djokovic for one as I think he might have a shout. He's the only one who's game matches up well enough on clay to possibly beat him, in my opinion.

I seriously doubt Rafa will make the US open though. Even if he does make it, having not hit a ball since the Rosol match how could he possibly challenge? Hope he does by the way.

Rafa will, in all probability, be fine for the USO. I'd put him down for the next three RG titles. You'd probably have to cut off a leg to stop him winning it (in which case he'd probably only make the final) or cut off both legs (semi finals).

sirfredperry wrote:Rafa will, in all probability, be fine for the USO. I'd put him down for the next three RG titles. You'd probably have to cut off a leg to stop him winning it (in which case he'd probably only make the final) or cut off both legs (semi finals).

Yep, you are probably right. It is his turf and, barring severe injury, he is hard to bet against. Not sure if I can see him picking up slams outside the French due to his knees but his drive and determination mean he can never be ruled out.

For me

2012 USO Djokovic / Murray

2013 AO Murray /Djokovic

2013 RG Nadal - Djokovic has a shout if RN not at his best but don't see it.

2013 Wimbledon Murray / Federer / Djokovic (nothing like sitting on the fence )

2013 USO Djokovic / Murray

2014 AO Murray / Djokovic

2014 RG Nadal - with the same caveat as 2013

2014 Wimbledon Murray - Always a shout for RF but he may be slowing down by then.

2014 USO Djokovic / Murray.

There you go, now let history prove me completely wrong

Not going to make predictions, but I'd be very happy for Murray to win a couple, and Del Potro as well. Don't want to see Fed/Rafa/Djoko as the only winners for yet another 2 years.

lydian wrote:He could used to do that TSJ but he's getting older...he cant keep on at the same rate or ability.

Socal, I understand those arguments of fitness, etc, but I dont buy them completely. The game hasnt changed THAT much since 2006...when some of these guys were emerging - most of the surface changes occured between 2001-5 in my opinion. Djokovic, Murray and Nadal were able to get up to the top end of rankings by 19...but todays guys cant. Clearly the top 3 raised the bar and young guys are finding it hard to break through...but its not just them they have to compete against. They only have to beat guys ranked in the top200 to make good headway but they arent doing so...not every guy in top200 is like Nadal, etc.

So for me its lack of talent....talent finds the way. But it isnt doing.
The age aspect at the top end is due to slower surfaces...this helps the older guys because they dont need to rely on explosive, fast twitch movement the same. They can use general stamina, etc, to help them...and fitness is the one thing that can keep increasing with age unlike reflexes, explosvie movement. I discussed this at some length a couple of week back.

I do agree the next generation guys are weaker in terms of talent. But I think part of it is what we both touched on in that the age of the tennis prime is moving back slightly with the more baseline game and fitness demands. I do agree that the slower conditions actually help the older guys because like you say you can keep getting fitter in your thirties but you can be more explosive and faster in your thirties than you were in your 20s. And I also agree that these guys are less talented than Murray, Delpo, Djoko, Nadal group of players that came up in that 2-3 year window. But I am sure you remember all of the fast court proponents claiming that the slowed conditions was leading to more injuries and shortening careers, to me that is the strongest argument if it can be proven for speeding the courts up. However I have not seen any empirical evidence and with the continued relevance of guys like Federer, Youzhyny, Ferrer, Haas, Nalbandian, and fish on these slower courts if anything it seems that the slower courts are extending the window. If anything playing S and v point in and point takes more out of you than hitting shots from the baseline. The constant explosive stopping and starting and leaping and lunging required for volleying may not make you sweat as much but sure helps to pay the chiropractors bills.

But wait I thought there was no such thing as a weaker or stronger era? Just like to point out that how much better the Murray, Delpo, Djoko, and Nadal group is than the guys that came immediately before and after them is very strong evidence for a certain posters claims that we are watching a special generation or group of players who are now entering their primes. And it also kind of craps on the idea that all eras are equally tough. If one can look at the younger generation and say that Nole, Nadal, Del po, and Murray are better than Harrisson, Raonic, Tomic, and Dimitrov; then why pray tell can one not look at the Nole/Nadal/murray group and compare them favorably to fat Dave, dodgey hip lleyton, and one shot Andy? Oh that is right because no one can be allowed to challenge Roger's draws or the competition he faces, any competition Roger beats is the best, because he is the best.

Well he's the #1 now at 31 so we knows for sure he's better than the current crop,even past his best

bogbrush wrote:Well he's the #1 now at 31 so we knows for sure he's better than the current crop,even past his best

It's not that straightforward though, is it?

165 points clear at the top but having played 2 more tournaments to earn those points?

And with with Novak needing to serve out one set at Toronto to go top again?

Novak can't go top even if he wins Toronto, according to http://live-tennis.eu/

JuliusHMarx wrote:Novak can't go top even if he wins Toronto, according to http://live-tennis.eu/

Thanks Julius and I stand corrected if I was wrong on that detail. The ATP site seems to have different numbers though:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx/

Do you know where the difference is?

Not sure exactly. From the ATP site, it looks like Novak's 1000 points from Canada last year don't drop off until 13th Aug, so he needs to win Toronto to stay on 11270. That's the most he can get.
Fed's 90 points from Canada will also drop off leaving him on 11345.

Not sure what the other site is basing their numbers on - we've sort of come to trust it, but maybe we shouldn't.
Anybody else know?

HM Murdoch wrote:
And with with Novak needing to serve out one set at Toronto to go top again?

Djokovic is defending his title, lest you forget, hence no net gain of points in Toronto. Let us assume he retains the title and stays at 11,270.

Dropping Cincy points of 180 and 600 from Federer and Djokovic respectively. Drop Federer's 90 from Toronto.

Federer 11,435 - 180 - 90 = 11,165, Djokovic 11,270 - 600 = 10,670.

Federer - 11,165 Djokovic 10,670

R32 (+45) 11,210 10,715
R16 (+90), 11,255 10,760
QF (+180), 11,345 10,850
SF (+360), 11,525 11,030
Final (+600), 11,765 11,270
W (+1000) 12,005 11,315

PS: Updated (and again ).

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Novak-Djokovic.aspx?t=rb

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Roger-Federer.aspx?t=rb

Thanks Laverfan.

Maybe it's easier if I just look at the Race To London numbers!

HM, updated yet again. If Federer retains his QF, he cannot be overtaken.

If Federer loses in R32 then Djokovic must reach the final or win the title to be number #1.

My numbers do not match the Live Tennis website. I will need to check the points rules for Olympics and countables.

laverfan wrote:My numbers do not match the Live Tennis website. I will need to check the points rules for Olympics and countables.

Don't do all that on my account, Laverfan!

Usually the Live Race site is very accurate and quicker than ATP. I am curious now on why there are differences.

Federer - 2
Djokovic - 2/3
Del Potro - 2/1
Murray -1/0
Nadal -1
Other -2/1

I have been so wrong at all the tournaments this year bar RG, so think Nadal will definitely have very good chance of taking the next few French Opens. I don't like the look of Djokovic atm - he is playing well but he doesn't seem to want to go through the 'pain barrier' in the same way he did last year to scoop the titles - how much does he continue to really, really want it? Hope we are going to see Murray take at least a couple of the slams after a great confidence boosting gold medal, and I think that Del Potro has to be a major threat too after a great run on a surface that just hasn't suited in the past - if he is not too kn*ckered (big frame and all that!) just how dangerous is he going to be at his favourite tournament? Love to think Fed had one more in him, and maybe if the draw opens up and he hits form when others a little off their peak, he may be lucky once again.

This thread is changing directions from slams to points, may be a different thread to update rankings would be good.

I disagree timeplease don't mistake poor form for a problem in terms of talent and ability. Of all the top 4 I still believe that Djoko has the most upside and brightest future of all of them. Fed will ride off into the sunset soon with a boatload of trophies, he only regained the number one because Novak tore his back in the US open last year the points race wouldn't be close unless you were measuring 12 months of fed's points against 10 months of tennis for Djokovic despite as poorly as Djoko has been playing recently. He now has made the last 9 slam semis. I still think he is a better player than Murray all around, and poor Rafa seems to keep getting injured and I don't think could challenge Novak on hardcourts to begin with anyway. Novak can handle del po look at their h2h who is going to stop him? Tomic? Raonic?

If anything his near term prospects are as good or better than anyone's I would say better.

socal1976 wrote:I disagree timeplease don't mistake poor form for a problem in terms of talent and ability. Of all the top 4 I still believe that Djoko has the most upside and brightest future of all of them. Fed will ride off into the sunset soon with a boatload of trophies, he only regained the number one because Novak tore his back in the US open last year the points race wouldn't be close unless you were measuring 12 months of fed's points against 10 months of tennis for Djokovic despite as poorly as Djoko has been playing recently. He now has made the last 9 slam semis. I still think he is a better player than Murray all around, and poor Rafa seems to keep getting injured and I don't think could challenge Novak on hardcourts to begin with anyway. Novak can handle del po look at their h2h who is going to stop him? Tomic? Raonic?

If anything his near term prospects are as good or better than anyone's I would say better.

Hey socal - I think you misunderstand me a bit. I actually agree with pretty much everything you have written and I think Novak has been playing very well in many ways. I know you loved the AO final but I hated it because I thought it would pretty much write off the year for the two guys. I didn't know whether it would have a physical effect or purely a mental one, but I think it was in a way more exhausting for Djokovic because the effort of holding Nadal off was becoming harder and harder and I can't begin to imagine how mentally exhausting the concentration needed to come through that ridiculous marathon where it was taking so long to land a point, never mind a game, was. I think Djokovic is burnt out atm mentally and probably not helped in that department if there are family problems, as reported elsewhere.

I do wonder how much he wants it atm, but agree that if he decides he does, then he will be the one to beat. Also agree that younger generation do not look to have the quality to challenge the top guys - that may be one of the reasons Fed has decided to delay 'riding off into the sunset' as well as loving to play, don't you think? He must think that his chances to go deep in tournaments aren't looking a whole lot worse in the short term!

Novak and Andy should win at least 6 of the 9

It is time for them to get their rewards for their sheer consistency of the last 4 years

banbrotam wrote:Novak and Andy should win at least 6 of the 9

It is time for them to get their rewards for their sheer consistency of the last 4 years

Very true. I hope it happens but will not bet my life savings (what there are of them) on it!

banbrotam wrote:Novak and Andy should win at least 6 of the 9

It is time for them to get their rewards for their sheer consistency of the last 4 years

Agree with this banbro that is a pretty good estimate any wager on what the split will be between them?

Good post timeplease, nice to hear from you, the fact is that Roger should be competing at this level. Remember how far ahead of everyone he was in 05 and 06 as much as I like teasing his fans there can be no doubt about how high a level he has attained and still can attain. Even with the ageing that is going to happen there is no reason why fed if he wants to can't be a competive player like Agassi till his mid thirties. Hell fed at 45 could probably still be the top 100 if he really wanted to. He has enjoyed sensational physical health and therefore will be a threat for time to come but an ever receding threat, albeit receding slowly. He could get more slams and even have a lengthy run at #1 again he has that kind of ability. Which is a testament to his greatness in this very difficult era of top ranked competition.