Thoughts on the 4Ns

One week away from a new Tournament the 4Ns pits the RWC holders and the 3Ns holders against each other in the first weeks.The AllBlacks will want to break the curse of RWC winners having poor seasons afterwards.The Wallabies to prove last year was no fluke and regain the Bledisloe.The Boks on all known form will be 2-0 after two matches and in a very good position to win this year,the other two will be 2-0,1-1 ,or 0-2.Argentina are an unknown quantity and may well nick a home win,especially as Ted has been working with them.The waiting is nearly over injuries to key players on all 3 SH sides has levelled the playing field a bit.Picking players still carrying injuries or short of match practice could mean early lost matches and the SBW saga drags on.

emack2 wrote: The AllBlacks will want to break the curse of RWC winners having poor seasons afterwards.

Alan. Why do you persist with this statement.

The All Blacks haver NEVER had a problem with any curse post winning a world cup.Why would you think they would want to break a curse that only exists for their opponents?

I fail to understand why you can't understand that simple concept. Sorry. Didn't bother with the rest after that.

I mean its like saying the Abs will want to avoid world cup matches at Eden park because no ones won there...huh?

But on a positive note...
I believe the ABs have less injury concerns don't they.

Ours are more players coming back? Jane, Read, mealamu. Smith is the major but we aren't too bad there. Pieterson and burger particularly are bigger losses for SA and horwill and joc plus an out of form cooper are huge losses for Aus.

But this years more about opportunities. We've had several players stand up against Ireland but they need to show they can perform against top three. Due to the balance of experience around them I think they can.

All eyes on Argentina next two weeks. I think they'll win one home match, maybe two. They've never beaten NZ before but this year is probably their best chance with earlier matches against similar company to prepare.

Point one this is the First All Black defence of a RWC in the professional era.1987 is practically the only incidence when the winners have had a good run unbeaten.You could argue briefly Australia 1991,and 1999 but they were beaten by the AllBlacks first up.Boks 1996 was a mess,and post 2007 not very good.England post 2003 just close your eyes and hope it will go away,Your own media and Hansen himself are being wary why not me?Do YOU really think after all the time you`ve known me I don`t know what i`m talking about?
Point two injured players coming back Luke Romano is borderline,no other Lock has been named .IF one is parachuted in it will be a debutant and a bledisloe Cup match away is hardly an ideal start.Kieron Read has been out of the game a long time and to expect him to just be back to his best at once optimistic.The key area is the 12/13 Conrad Smith was the keystone in both Attack and Defence.Nonu at 13 is far from ideal SBW at 12.IF he plays has`nt trained with the squad.IF not its a pair of rookies outside Nonu,in an area where whoever plays where Australia are always strong.
Point three You had several players stand up in one match,and disappear in the second versus Ireland.With respect the Wallabies are World number 2,defending Champions 3Ns and are really burning about the RWC semi.THEY want the Bledisloe Cup back,there pack is very under rated,there back row excellent,backs outstanding.Super 15 form means NOTHING in the test arena and only a fool writes a side of on the strength of it.
I wrote the thread because I am bored with lack of interest to me on the board currently.The Post RWC thing has been a thread in your media concern too,I don`t believe the publicity The Boks at time looked awesome versus England.IF they can put it together for a full 80 they can beat ANYONE.I`m to long in the tooth to be ambushed by teams suddenly surprising another.I take NOTHING for granted the AllBlacks are playing sides who know they can beat them if they underperform.NOT versus sides who have never done it who hope they can get it up for a surprise win.I am a realist 2009 apart since about the time when 14/15 matches a year was the norm.The All Blacks have lost 1/2 on average I expect this year to be no different.I Hope the All Blacks will win the 4Ns 5-1 or 4-2,6-0 is very unlikely.I expect them to lose 2 matches this year 1 probably in the 4Ns,and possibly the third Bledisloe cash Match presumeably there is one?.

ABs V Qantas.

I'm kinda concerned that the first match is taking place in Aus. If it was at Eden Park we'd very likely win, then carry the momentum into the following match. But since the first match is in Aus then it's going to be a lot tougher, and if we lose Aus will have the momentum and might be able to overthrow the Eden Park curse the following week. Still, I think the ABs will win the first match by about 6 points

Alan..you said...the ABs will want to break the curse.

Show me anything anecdotal that in any shape or form supports any such desire. Their record post world cup so far, for both cups is 21 tests before losing one. This round they are still at 100%.

What I'm saying is you are presuming something on the ABs that seems to fit your own theories.

The abs in no shape or form have suffered post world cup blues. So why on earth would they even consider such a curse. Because others do?

Unbelievable how your logic works.where is this wariness in reference to post world cup blues? Ok to be wary. But not for that reason.

This is what I have to argue against on South African websites.

The Aussies play a beautiful game which is as structured as a ballet dance or WWF wrestling match… THIS is their success.

The success of the Bulls in the first decade of this century has been down to playing to a game plan.

What you are suggesting is that the players need to play instinctually. They do not. You cannot have individuals playing instrinctively because they make THE TEAM look stupid because they are never prepared for the stupid individual’s instinctive feel and the way he acts on it.

The best is for the team to make a call and if well enough drilled it looks instrintive but is actually drilled…

You don’t understand Biltong… there is no longer any “instinctive” play…

Instinctive players do not exist any more.

They never have.

Okay but let us ask the return question…

What is so cool about structured play as opposed to playing like an animal? Has 5 million years of evolution not taught you anything… as in why is Homo Sapiens top of the food chain? Uhhhmmm… maybe because we use our brains and not instincts….

I don’t get why people actually think players playing instinctively is good as opposed to those using their brains to ensure a team wins.

It’s like putting a bunch of expert gun marksmen up against a bunch of soldiers… the soldiers will win every time because they use their brains to work as a team… and in a rugby match you need a team not talented instinctive animals.

I talk about instinct can break open a match situation when you are down by 7 in the last few minutes and the "plan" is not working and I am told it is playing like animals.

jeez biltong

Thats a hard task I cant even think where youd start, but do they not realise that a lot of the plays are actually overlearnt skills, maybe some of the new Zealand plays anyway arent instinct at all, just the end product of many many hours of training.

My response to him.

David why do you not understand what I am getting at?

There are times in a match where the “plan” doesn’t provide results.Then you need a player to break open the match and provide the scoring opportunity.

What you are suggesting is that players should run as autobots during a match with no individuality NO MATTER THE SITUATION, hence your stoic reliance on the “plan” allows for no deviation to break the deadlock.

So what you are saying is “tough luck” if the plan doesn’t work then we lose, and that’s the only resultant end.

You actually beleive that?

Who said anything about playing like an animal?

You are interpreting my statements in a manner where anything I say you refuse to acknowledge any sense in them.

As far as your statement that players who use their instinct aren’t using their brains is in fact laughable at best.

A player that recognises an opportunity to break a game and instinctively reacts to the potential gap or weakness in a defence has everything to do with using their brains. How the hell don’t you see that?

It is the player who is playing like an autobot with no though to anything other than the plan who is not using his brain.

Let’s look at Fourie du Preez at his best, go back to our 36-0 win over England in the RWC. What made him great in that game was his ability to see when the counter attack was on. Using his brain within the game plan.

Instinct is what makes good players potentially great.

Biltong

Just out of interest where abouts in south Africa does the person youre conversing with come from? ie which super xv franchise?

He lives in Boksburg and say he is a Lions supporter, however he gets rather agressive when you criticise the Bulls, Morne Steyn and Heyneke Meyer.

Well dont tell him, but one of his teams coaches was one of the most instinctive rugby players ever, then again maybe hes got a downer on 'los.

Biltong wrote:He lives in Boksburg and say he is a Lions supporter, however he gets rather agressive when you criticise the Bulls, Morne Steyn and Heyneke Meyer.

Ooh really. Sounds like fun.

Watching Rage laurie?

On tv one. Drama about the bok tour in 81. Fond memories for us all.

Taylorman,where are you getting this "MY Theories" bit they are not mine BUT your own Media.You used it in a previous post talking about Deans .You are not 21 and 0 this is 2012 NOT 1987 and are 3-0 against Ireland one of which was very shaky.Play like that on Friday against Australia ,you will lose as you would have against the Boks.EVERY RWC winning side had some sort of post RWC hangover except 1987.Complacency will kill you, forget the RWC side thats gone this one as yet has to prove itself.This is the hardest tournament in the world to win because the 3 best sides in the World contest home and away.
Like you I THINK the AllBlacks will be OK and win this Tournament but don`t blindly take it as read.Ireland with respect arn`t the SH giants and friday is a very real match for concern.It is to close to call,the Home match is another matter they should win there.

I asked for evidence Alan. NZ wanting to break world cup curse. Where specifically?
In NZ we don't 'have' this curse. So I would be amazed if its referred to. Sounds good in theory. Doesn't happen here.

What curse dont you have Taylor.. How do you know anyway?

Do you think anyone that says these things relating to a dip in quality after acheiving the ultimate goal(RWC in this case) actually truely beleves a witch has cursed them or something- but in this case no one has cursed NZ..

There seems to be this hoodoo around teams that win the wcup and don't go on afterwards. England probably the best example.

Its a problem we have not yet had the experience of. It took three years to lose a match the last time we won it and to date at 100% we don't seem to be suffering from it this time. In fact it couldn't be further from the truth.

I'm not saying we won't lose. I'm just saying that the ABs would simply not refer to it as its not relevant to them. Alan presupposes that in the back of the AB minds is this curse by suggestion. When that's plain and utter rubbish.

taylor do you think SA had the thought in the back of there mind after 2007 world cup- do you think England had that in there mind after the 2003 world cup and so on and so on. OFFcourse not. NZ dont have this power of positivity that other nations dont. No team thinks there are gonna lose after the WC- maybe that over confidence is actually the problem- And maybe you are actually demonstrating it

I am not suggesting it is in the back of there minds at all,IF you refer to articles in the Dominion Post ,and New Zealand Herald Tribune.Hansen himself was nervous about a post RWC hang over before the Ireland matches .I am not suggesting a witches curse just stating facts.EVERY winning RWC side suffered it to some extent with the exception of 1987.Something you yourself have admitted above,of course in some cases.It was due a team going out all together England 2003,NZ post 1991 and 1998 but not always.The major problem is Kaino and Thorn are big boots to fill plus of course Conrad Smith a huge loss.SBW if he plays and Nonu are both great players but are essentially both 12`s.Last time it was tried it was`nt really totally successful and it does`nt look like they will get much practice together.

I would be very interested to know what each of our LosPumas/SANZAR brethren thinks will be the first XV for each of the participants.

Well I don't recall them. Hansen has said many times he's on a new page. Last year was last year so to link the two through 'post cup blues' doesn't sound consistent.

In any case, win or not last year we'd be in exactly the same position now either way, except if wed lost perhaps hansen wouldn't be coach.

The players would be the same. Confidence levels should be high as we've made the most of the summer tours in terms of blooding new players. Deans will have cooked up something special and Judging by the sxv the easiest way to improve ones fortunes is to follow the chiefs example in deploying a punishing, in your face defence. That's a must if oz are going to be competitive.

"Steve Hansen is a big-picture guy - a coach with a vision that doesn't lack ambition. The challenge he has laid down for the All Blacks in the Rugby Championship is to repeatedly back up: to follow big performances with big performances, eliminating even the slightest fluctuations in quality to deliver relentless excellence".

Opening paragraph in the article below. Reckon the WC will be all but a distant memory. There's also some comments on the oz/AB rivalry and how it soured a touch last year. Hansen's hoping it'll improve.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10826307

Sorry,this thread has been derailed by a simple comment in the article I wrote and has sidetracked it.It was meant to be a debate on the 4Ns itself and relative teams chances not on post RWC hangovers.can we start again?

In order to compete in the Quad Nations you need to win all three home matches and win in Argentina for a start.

You lose a match to argentina you are out of the comp.

So you need 4 wins at 4 points each.

Then you need a few bonus points. Considering New Zealand is likely to gain at least 2 against Argentina (not a guarantee but a real possibility) and likely at least one more at home against either Oz or SA would mean you need 20 log points to win.

So how will each country gain 20 log points, wehre will they come from?

What makes the inclusion of Argentina so interesting is the effect bonus point wins against them by some and not others will effect the other matches.

Lets say SA gets no bonus points vs Argentina, but walk away with 2 wins.
New Zealand and Australia do get 2 bonus points against Argentina, then for SA to win, they effectively have to win an away match ontop of their other home matches to stay in the race.

The one thing about Argentina recently was although they did`nt win that often
they were`nt easy beats .They seldom if ever at full strength[whatever that is]coughed up 4 tries.IF the Super 15 is any form guide which it rarely is the changes in the laws as they trickle thru and defences are getting really tough.
Offside laws if properly policed make the so called "blitz defence" nearly impossible in kick /chase mode.It used to be win you home matches against Each other NZ/SA get a couple of bonus points and nick one from Oz .Taking nothing for granted would expect all 3 sides to do the double over A rgentina this year but no bonus points.NZ i expect to win there home matches the away one vArgentina.Lose in SA,Fridays match v OZ is key and in my opinion for what it`s worth too close to call.Judging by the NZ Media SBW may well not be released for friday but maybe for the return match.

Do Argentina have full access to potential players as of now and for the rest of the comp?

Why should NZ be guaranteed 5 points against Argentina?

They struggled to manage two tries against them in the WC and pretty much fumbled past in the end. To be honest I see SA getting the most points against the Pumas with NZ doing well but maybe struggling for 5 pointers, Oz could go either way.

It isn't a guarantee Yappy, but it will be their target.

Oh i'm sure it will be. But for what it's worth I think they'll struggle... unless you boys ruin them before NZ get to them.

Yeah, Argentina throws a few unknowns into the comp.

it will be interesting.

Couple of things...

looks like SBW's confirmed despite not showing last training or two.

http://www.allblacks.com/news/20122/Sonny-Bill-Williams-confirmed-for-All-Blacks

and good to see Morne Steyns back..his 'attacking' play against England sees him in good stead again.

http://www.allblacks.com/news/20123/Steyn-back-on-track-for-South-Africa

I'm sure he'll get every opportunity to try those same attacks against the AB's et all. Good to see.

Lastly,
I was reading this book in the mall the other day and even I got a big head looking at the way the stats were presented, that I had to put it down.

Definitely (and only) for the true blue AB fans out there. Some of the statistics, even though they're all out there already, are incredible the way they are presented.

http://www.allblacks.com/news/20116/AllBlacks-power---the-facts-dont-lie

Taylorman
Trouble is that in about six months time a certain welshman living in England will come across these stats and we are going to get nothing but S..t.

i really don't think the ABs are focussed on any curse. True, they may have been wary about coming down from the highs of a WC, but thats been put behind them with a successful (except for the Blues) S15 season and June internationals. IMO they'll be more concerned about keeping their astounding winning ratio intact

Hi,Taylorman just clicked on the link a little surprisedthought there win stats in Amateur period was a little higher than that[just under 72%].I know the stat for all matches is around 76% going back to 1903.Allblacks and Boks jointly were considered the most professional sides during amateur period.Full time Coaches did`nt appear till about 1968/9 in the NH then for a time they were superior to SH ones.During the 1970`s NH coaches had notable successes on Lions tours 1971/4.Strange Carwyn James never coached his country just one of those little sports ironies.Can any one tell me when the 4Ns TEAMS[not squads are annouced for starting 4Ns matches.Also why only a squad of 28 it used to be 32 [2 fullsides plus an extra scrum half and hooker].

emack

The All black team is announced on Thursday afternoon (NZ time), and they fly out on Thursday night.

Romano has made the team and so has Messam. To be honest I'm glad about those calls. Rettalick is on the bench and no doubt will come on when legs are tired in the last quarter. But this Romano kid is a bit bigger and adds a bit more grunt to the pack than the rangier Rettalick. And no doubt Messam's performance against Ireland when he carried out a very effective gameplan of clearing away the previously effective stealers of Healy, SOB et al. Hansen looks to be sending out a clear message of intent: the ABs are going in to dominate up front. I think they have a pack that can do that.

Out wide, apart from the loss of Smith we have the welcome return of Jane. Stick Gear on the other wing and that's a nice combination. SBW and Nonu aren't the best centre combination in my mind but nor are they the worst. Indeed, this is where I think the Wallabies are weakest. I expect Cruden to make an appearance and I only hope we can get a look at Beale at first five. That would mean AAC goes to fullback which is an advantage to the ABs as I think he is the type of player who could do more damage to our centre combinator.

Just seen the team annouced,Adam Thomson does`nt even make the bench,best 6 in NZ this season that is a real slap in the face.Weakens the lineout too,surprised Romano starting because of recent injury.BUT best Lock on offer Whitelock aside.Messam starting no surprise there Chiefs are flavour of the month,no Sam Cane that is a surprise.Vito covering 5,6,7 Thomson if he does`nt get game time will be looking abroad and that`s a damn shame for a man in the form of his life.No place for Savea ,sensible but surprised.

Would you mind putting the team Alan? Have been in the wilderness for two weeks so have been out of touch. Vito is back from injury but I too am surprised to see him in the squad and not Cane. To me Vito covers 7 and 8 and he doesn't convince me at 6. I wonder how long it is before McCaw tries his hand at 6 and leaves 7 to someone else. I hope Read can stay injury free this 4N. He seems to be worryingly picking up injuries all too frequently for my liking. Such an important player.