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Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - Novak's 2012

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Post by HM Murdock Mon 20 Aug 2012, 9:31 am

There seems to be a difference of opinion on this forum about Novak's 2012.

Some argue that his form is not drastically behind that of 2011. The difference is that his opponents are now in better form and the small margins that nearly all went his way last year are now sometimes going against him.

There is definitely some truth in this.

This time in 2011, Novak had made 10 finals and had won 9 of them. This year he has made 7 finals and has won 3. So the results, whilst not as good as 2011, are hardly bad.

Others of us (including me) believe that the results are not telling the whole story and there are some mental demons troubling Novak recently when he plays the top players. This has really been noticeable since Rome and I've worked out a stat that to me is very revealing.

Since (and including) Rome, Novak has played Fed and Rafa 4 times - Rome, RG, Wimbledon and Cincy.

In these games he has played 58 service games and double faulted 15 times. On average this means that 26% of service games have featured a double fault.

Outside of these matches, he has played 735 service games and double faulted 93 times. On average this means that 13% of service games have featured a double fault.

So his rate of double faults against Rafa and Roger recently is double what it is for the rest of his games. These double faults have often been at key moments - break points down, set points and even match points.

I think this is a great indicator of how Novak is cracking in the big moments against these players. When Novak is feeling worried, his serve is the first thing to go.

Also, although it is not an exact science, double faults do not really stem from great play from the opponent. They are a failure of technique, which in turn is often a symptom of feeling nerves and pressure.

I remain convinced that Novak is going through a mental block against the top guys. The results in themselves may not be extraordinary but the manner they are coming about certainly is.

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Post by banbrotam Mon 20 Aug 2012, 9:37 am

He's just back in 'normal' mode - which puts him even with the others

I maintain that now when the Top 4 play each other it is a matter of who has the best form, i.e. it's rare that any of them can get away without being in top form

When they are playing the rest they can

Wimbledon is wide open between the Top 3 (who are entering) as I'm no longer convinced that Fed has the energy for five set Tennis to be at this peak for finals, given who that he might have to beat both. Remember at Wimbledon, he was on the ropes for the first two sets and it was his sheet unique skill that got him out of a hole

Hence, no reason to think that Nole isn't joint favourite

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Post by HM Murdock Mon 20 Aug 2012, 9:47 am

Banbrotam, I do agree with you assessment on the top 4 and their form. The issue for Novak at the moment is that his form v the top 4 is much worse than his form the rest of the time.

Cincy was a great example. Didn't lose serve all tournament and was showing signs of getting back to his best v Cilic and Delpo. Then in the first set v Fed, he double faults 4 times, loses serve 3 times and gets bagelled!

That can't be solely attributable to Fed's performance (which, admittedly, was pretty fantastic!).

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Post by sirfredperry Mon 20 Aug 2012, 9:52 am

No one, including Djoko, thought that he would do as well in 2012 as in 2011. It was a remarkable season, especially as he had to play Rafa in so many finals and how he was also too strong for Fed and Murray at times.
But if you look at the matches, some were very close. Fed had those MPs in New York and even when Djoko managed to win the first Slam of this season, he trailed Rafa late in the match.
There was so much self belief in Nole's play last year. but he was not always blitzing his opponents so much as playing better at the crucial stages.
But, hey, he's not exactly having a bad season, though, is he? He may well be year-end number one and is fairly certain to be at least number two.

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Post by hawkeye Mon 20 Aug 2012, 10:01 am

I never saw Djokovic repeating 2011 and expected a bit of a slump. Think many are being a bit hard on him. He's just picked up 1,600 ranking points in two weeks. Not bad going... Federer has only picked up 1,450 ranking points even if you add in his Olympic points. Djokovic will be fine.

I would say though that having won Wimbledon, regained the number one position and now beating Djokovic with a bagal set Federer will be feeling pretty pleased with himself... maybe a little smug. Also although I'm sure he wouldn't want Nadal injured it must make things easier for him not having Rafa lurking menacingly somewhere in a slam draw. Nobody will want to play a smug Federer. I make him clear favourite for the US Open...

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Post by HM Murdock Mon 20 Aug 2012, 10:04 am

sirfredperry wrote: There was so much self belief in Nole's play last year. but he was not always blitzing his opponents so much as playing better at the crucial stages.
Sir Fred - exactly right. But why would you say that belief seems to have dried up against the top guys? Is it really just the result of a couple of losses?

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Post by sirfredperry Mon 20 Aug 2012, 10:52 am

HM M - Djoko did hint after his semi defeat at Wimbledon of something not being right (personal life/family ?) but he bounced back in North America so seems OK.
I think the double faults - mentioned in another posting - are quite significant. Shows a lack of confidence on the big points. USO could hinge on just who of Fed and Nole gets Murray in their half and the scheduling on Stupid Saturday.

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Post by kemet Mon 20 Aug 2012, 1:16 pm

Thanks for the thread HM Murdoch. One thing that was very troubling was the double fault that Novak served at RG to enable Rafa to defend his title and surpass Borg's haul of seven titles. While I think Rafa may still have won the match, the manner of defeat was a bit too tame for me in the end.


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Post by Guest Mon 20 Aug 2012, 1:24 pm

HM some stunning stats there clap especially on the serve side.

We could point at broken Egg Chambers or Rigged Draws for the problem.

All joking aside it does seem like Djokovic across the net is missing that presence that made him a nightmare for players like Federer and Nadal in 2011. I think post Australian Open some things have seemed a lot different. I do think emotionally he is running on near empty. Matches he would normally steam roller have turned into a life and death battle. I think if he can see 2012 out, the end of season rest might do him the world of good. I do wish to see him back to his best. I think he needs rest.

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Post by Danny_1982 Mon 20 Aug 2012, 1:52 pm

Confidence breeds confidence breeds wins.

Novak is playing well. Not at the super human level of last year, but then that was never going to happen in most peoples opinion. Yesterday was a bit more worrying than his other defeats vs top 4 this season as he didnt actually play well and looked tight as HM has alluded to.

But take the Murray Olympic match, Novak played really well overall but Murray saved all 4 BPs against him and took 2 of the 4 he created. That was the difference. Paper thin, as it usually is when the top guys meet.

If Novak went on another ridiculous streak you'd probably see that ridiculous confidence back where he never misses. But that run will never be repeated. I understand his fans concerns, but like I said yesterday if you delete 2011 from memory then 2012 is Novak's best season ever, and there's still a slam and WTF to go!

He set the bar so high that he was never going to match it, and because of it very good form is somehow anti-climactic. He'll continue winning tournaments and slams, but he'll also lose matches occasionally and play below par occasionally.

Basically, he's human again. Not a cause for great concern for me. If I was a Bovak fan I'd just be delighted that 2011 happened, but appreciate it was most likely a one off.

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Post by barrystar Mon 20 Aug 2012, 2:00 pm

If you had said to Novak in 2010, or even January this year, that running into the USO in 2012 he'd already have a slam, a slam final, and two TMS wins in the bank as well as being a couple of hundred points ahead in the race to the ye #1 I guess he'd be pretty chuffed.

Tiger Woods said that any year in which you win a major is a great year - the same goes for winning a slam in tennis and there's a lot left to fight over for Djoko, Fed, and others.
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Post by Josiah Maiestas Mon 20 Aug 2012, 2:12 pm

Also although I'm sure he wouldn't want Nadal injured it must make things easier for him not having Rafa lurking menacingly somewhere in a slam draw. Nobody will want to play a smug Federer.
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Post by HM Murdock Mon 20 Aug 2012, 2:32 pm

kemet wrote:...While I think Rafa may still have won the match, the manner of defeat was a bit too tame for me in the end.
kemet, well said, this is exactly what is nagging at me.

Losses to Rafa at Rome & RG and to Fed at Wimbledon & Cincy may have happened however well Novak played. The losses don't worry me. The tame performances in these matches are becoming are worryingly recurring theme though.

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Post by Henman Bill Mon 20 Aug 2012, 2:51 pm

Interesting but remember Djokovic saving 4 MPSs against Tsonga at the French, and it was hardly a surprise that he did it either. He looked pretty solid then. Something changed since then for me.

I don't think Federer's level is better this year, I think Djokovic's is lower though.

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Post by HM Murdock Mon 20 Aug 2012, 2:52 pm

Danny_1982 wrote:But take the Murray Olympic match, Novak played really well overall but Murray saved all 4 BPs against him and took 2 of the 4 he created. That was the difference. Paper thin, as it usually is when the top guys meet.
Hi Danny, I agree completely but this to me was another good example of the problem.

Although overall it was a good performance, both of the breaks came at 6-5 with Novak serving to stay in the set. In the last game of the second set he was broken to love!

So again, when the pressure was on, Novak's service game collapsed.

Of course, Murray played his part in this too and played very well on those points. But I got the feeling beforehand that Novak would be the one to blink and that's the way it turned out!


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Post by erictheblueuk Mon 20 Aug 2012, 2:57 pm

To me he just doesn't seem to be moving aswell he was. Last Year it was so hard for the other top guys to get him out of postion on the baseline. Now they seem to able to do it more often.
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Post by HM Murdock Mon 20 Aug 2012, 3:05 pm

Henman Bill wrote:Interesting but remember Djokovic saving 4 MPSs against Tsonga at the French, and it was hardly a surprise that he did it either. He looked pretty solid then. Something changed since then for me.
HB, that is a valid point. It's part of the reason I see the problem as being mental with Novak. Outside of Rafa and Roger (and the one match with Andy), he has been quite cool under pressure, the Tsonga match being a noteworthy example. He could have done with some of that cool in the final when he started spraying double faults!

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Post by Josiah Maiestas Mon 20 Aug 2012, 3:12 pm

Djokovic first set winners 4 unforced errors 10, to me its just obvious he's not very good at playing matches early in the day mixed with high temperatures. Also, what was the wind like? Didn't seem much wind at all, which could make a big difference.
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Post by socal1976 Mon 20 Aug 2012, 5:50 pm

If people think this is Novak's normal form from now on I think you are sadly mistaken. I don't think that Fed or Nadal are drastically better or worse than they were the year before. Novak is struggling with something as bizarre losses and streaks of play. The guy brutalizes Nadal winning what 8 or 9 straight games from him on his most favored court in the world, and then turns in sets like the one he played yesterday against federer. I am not kidding a lot of the WTA stars could have given him trouble in the first set, the guy couldn't hit 3 balls in a row in for the first half hour. That is nowhere approaching "normal form". When he is brimming with confidence he strokes that mid court forehand as well as anyone in the game. For short bursts in matches its like his focus completely dissappears and neutral forehands that not just in 2011, but even in 2010 and 09 that he would be spanking off the court are sailing long or flubbing into the net.

I mean if he was being blasted off the court it is one thing, but hitting like 20 errors with 2 winners for set and half against any pro let alone Federer in form is going to get you beat up and bad.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion. But if you want the opinion of this Djoko fan who has watched a couple hundred at least Djoko matches this is not Djoko coming back to normal. Nole's new normal is quite a bit better than this. Time will tell, I think in a few short months or by next season this point I am making will become clearer for people.

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Post by Danny_1982 Mon 20 Aug 2012, 6:23 pm

I missed the first set yesterday so can't comment on how bad it was. 6/0 kinda tells me to an extent... And maybe it was bad enough to raise some serious concerns. But his record this season is still great, unless compared with 2011.

Australia W
French RU
Wimbledon SF
Olympics SF
Titles won 3

Hardly a collapse. Now looking at his defeats in the bigger tournaments:

Nadal at RG - played pretty well. Beating Rafa at RG toughest ask in tennis though.
Fed at W - nothing in it for 2.5 sets, had bad 15 mins and lost. Fed on grass AND indoor is 2nd toughest ask in tennis.
Murray at Olympics - played very well. Murray the more aggressive on the 7 or 8 big points.

I think it all comes down to how you perceive 2011. Was that the exception or the rule? I see it as the exception, never to be repeated by Novak or anyone. In comparison to that ridiculous form every loss - hell, even every error - looks sub standard in comparison.

Admittedly I didn't see that poor set yesterday. Maybe that did hint at bigger problems. But in terms of his results and performances the rest of the year, I think it's about what I expected.

Time will tell I guess. But he could still finish the season as number 1 and with 2 grand slams, and yet we're talking as if he's falling apart! I don't get that.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and I can understand the concern from Novak fans, but I don't share that concern. He's clearly not playing as well as last year but in my opinion he may never play that well.

He's still the points leader in 2012, and is still in my opinion favourite for New York. He's hardly having a Berdych!

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