Dragons v Blues Build-up Thread

[Luckless Pedestrian]

Just thought I'd get the ball rolling ahead of Saturday's derby match. The Blues have a good record at Dave Parade and will be looking to get back to winning ways after losing at home against Edinburgh; the Dragons lost away to Leinster on the weekend but will have taken heart from scoring three tries at the RDS and will be looking to put in another winning performance at home.

What do we think? Who's going to come out on top?

[youngguns6]

We're looking the better side IMO but that counts for nothing in these games. I do fancy us to get the win but I'm sure it will be close.

We will have Danny back, they will welcome back robberts but loosing halfpenny is a big blow. Hopefully we will be sticking with the same backline as the first to games.

29-24 dragons Toby MOTM.

[ScarletSpiderman]

Youngguns - if history is anything to go by, Ceri Sweeney to be man of the match and score a try, pen, con, and drop.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

I don't know how to call this one, really. Our defence was poor against Leinster but very good against Zebre (and against London Irish before that). I'll be disappointed if we don't have a real go at the Blues' scrum because they looked shaky against Edinburgh, but we've played some good football the last few games and I wouldn't want us to go away from that.

You're right that Halfpenny is a big loss for the Blues when the result could come down to kicks at goal.

[youngguns6]

Spider- We've beaten the blues on their last 2 visits to Dave Parade haven't we?

Not sure what will happen with the scrums. Both teams will be happy with clean ball. Prydie is a goal kicking machine and like you said LP we are playing good football and I expect that to continue.

Toby always tears the blues apart! Really excited about this Saturday, playing, drinking, watching n followed by more drinking!

[Luckless Pedestrian]

The back-row battle is going to be cracking, isn't it? Martyn Williams has been trumpeting Pretorius as a potential Wales number eight, well he has the ideal opportunity to prove it on Saturday. Sam Warburton needs to put in some good performances soon or he's going to lose his spot to Tipuric.

[ScarletSpiderman]

Yeah i guess you may have broken the hoodoo withe the blues at home.

I would think when it comes down to the scrum the Blues are most likely going to want to get it away from there as soon as possible as it has been a real issue last week. Although I would expect them to try and batter the Dragons into submission with plenty of crash ball (cuthbert, roberts, evans) rather than risk getting into a free flowing rugby match.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

Is Jamie Roberts definitely back for Saturday?

[ScarletSpiderman]

On the beeb it says he was meant to be back for Oct, but is WILL be back for the Dragons match

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/19481192

That said it doesn't mean he will start, or that he will not pick up the same knock again (it was the dragons that did the injury last time??) early on opr even in training.

[gowales]

I'm going with the men of Gwent for this one.

[wales606]

I wonder if Tovey will start

A lot of the Blues hope lies with Halfpenny being fit.

It could go either way, but the Dragons have to be favourites at home.

Scrum shouldn't be as bad, Edinburgh had an international front row while the Dragons scrum isn't great - if Bourrust is fit the Blues will be ok.

[bedfordwelsh]

Head and heart says we will win this one on Saturday. Blues haven't look good in either of their games so far and whilst nothing can really be read into the Zebre game we did look very good for first half and we ran in 3 good tries out at the RDS.

But likes been said form counts for little in Derby matches.

[youngguns6]

Yes I agree the backrow battle will be intense. Will Lewis be fit to start at 7?

I'd love to see Steffan and Jason go head to head! Good mates but I'm sure they'd love to get one over each other.
Now in worried that we have the favourites tag. In Prydie we seem to have a touch of class, very calm in attack and defence. We've often been a team to panic but he, along with Evans, looks very composed.

Come on let's hear your score predictions.
I'm sticking with
29-24 dragons Toby MOTM.

[Janecory]

Wayne Evans will be the best 9 on the pitch.

[youngguns6]

Janecory... I'm guessing Jonny Evans will be the best 9 on the pitch !

[Guest]

Jamie Roberts is likely to be on the bench. I just have this nagging feeling that either Tovey or Sweeney (again) is going to come up trumps for them again. At a guess, I'd say Sweeney will start, as I suspect they won't want Jase to make his full debut back at RP.

I think the Dragons will win, but it's bound to be a close one again. If we can get that aggressive for Zebre at home and we generally raise our game for the derbies over the past two seasons, I am hoping we really come out the traps like we have our past two games at RP and then don't ease off, especially as Blues bench is likely to be a bit stronger.

[maestegmafia]

Should be a cracker and I really don't think the Blues will be too confident of winning this, even if they are improving their squad with quality players like Roberts and Tovey returning.

[Janecory]

Janecory... I'm guessing Jonny Evans will be the best 9 on the pitch !

Perhaps, but sure it wont be either of the 2 Blue jokers !

[youngguns6]

"Perhaps, but sure it wont be either of the 2 Blue jokers !"
Haha yes! Rees looked good vs the blues the other day as well haha!

It's always tense v the blues but if there team had a different name I would be very confident and id be calling for 5points..
Years of hurt make us pessimistic.

[offload]

I'll go Dragons for a narrow win. The Blues set piece was really poor last week and with Dan and Toby in the backrow I think we'll edge it.

[munkian]

Really really really wish I was going to this game but I have girl friend commitments

These derbies have been rather close games recently but I think the Blues will really miss Halfpenny.

Cuthbert and Roberts running at us is a worry but if we get the better of their scrum our back 3 are very dangerous and we have even more options when Chav, Will and Pooley come back

Tovey wasnt even on the Blues bench last game was he ?

[Luckless Pedestrian]

Even if Tovey's fit and available for Saturday, I doubt the Blues would want his first match for them to be against the Dragons back at Dave Parade.

[munkian]

Ha, that would be quite cruel. Though he'd probably do a Sweeney and have a stormer

[Luckless Pedestrian]

Tovey's a quality player and I don't bear a grudge because he's left the Dragons; but I wish him nothing but misfortune when the Blues play us.

[munkian]

Exactly

[Comfort]

lets be honest, Sweeney should definitely start this game, its about the only game he will excel in each season! Not sure which way this will go.

Dragons by a score I think.

[thebluesmancometh]

Sadly I have to put my money on the Dragons too, Blues are too out of sorts and have offered little from what Ive seen of them this season, both at home to Edinburgh and away at Bath.

The scrum will be there for the taking and the centre partnership lacks any rugby playing ability.

Dragons by 3-5 but I wouldnt be surprised at all to see Sweeney and Patchell have stormers to win it.

Is this game played friday?

[XR]

Sweeney Hat Trick, 5 conversions with 2 long range penalties and a cheeky back heel drop goal.

Calling it now.

[munkian]

Game is on Saturday.

Dragons to sneak it. Again

[gowales]

If Tovey comes on i reckon he'll choke and miss a few sitters

[Comfort]

On the plus side, we can now gauge how bad the blues scrum is, no offense to dragons, but they arent the best scrummagers in the world, if the blues scrum struggles like it did against ulster i might start scoffing the pies and make myself available to them as a loosehead.

Blues fans, you think Allen could start at 13 for this after the last game?

[thebluesmancometh]

I'm still waiting for Allen, but Patchell seems to be the youngster getting the shot, and with him playing at centre I can't see Allen being risked.

I mean no offence to dragons fans but Tuilagi is a bosh pad, and theres hardly electrifying pace around him.

Hewitt Evans should be comfortable enough, unless Roberts is in.

Mind you I'm still waiting to see Dacey and Hamilton get a shot!!

[youngguns6]

Our scrum is a mess, I really can't see either side dominating in that area. Pens will be flying out against both sides!

Bluesman - we have loads of pace, what are you on about? I believe we have a far more creative backline than the blues. Even with 2 crash ball centres we have a lot of pace and skill. Steffan has to start at 10 for me.Prydie, Evans and harries are all very quick let alone the fact we don't have Chavhanga or Hughes. Can't see your centres causing us problems.

Tovey should do well for the blues, quality young player. He has a swagger that all 10s need. He just needs to deliver consistently.

[munkian]

He was talking about Tuilagi, not the Dragons as a whole

[thebluesmancometh]

younguns

Sorry mate from the players Ive tested they arent particularly quick by modern day standards.

Chavanga is quick, but poor skill leveles.

Harries is quick but seems to have very little upper body strength.

Evans and Prydie are unknowns to me, but from what I can gather neither are devestating, although both very classy players IMO, and good signings.

The Blues centres arent designed to cause problems, they are designed to be solid defencively, offer a crash option and release the wide players when they can.

When you talk about pens you could be talking in every part of the field with these teams, neither have any real quality to boast of except for the odd player, and both have really flawed units and systems.

I think the winner will be the team who are most disciplined at the breakdown, and with the Dragons having fewer quality breakdown men I think it'll be their day.

But of course this is all dependant on lineups so...

[munkian]

Prydie and Evans have both scored good running tries in their opening debut games ?

Chav is very very quick and Harries isn't exactly weak.

I don't think you know what you are talking about...

[youngguns6]

Didn't Prydie hold the welsh 100m record before K.Phillips?

Chavhanga is on another level. Halfpenny is also very very quick but I think Tom, Evans and harries will be quicker than your back 3 with him missing.

[thebluesmancometh]

Thats your opinion, but fans tend to big their players up over their actual abilities, from my POV numbers do not lie.

From the numbers Ive dealt with 5m/10m/20m accel, 40m agility, Yo Yo and numerous other tests with lots of professional rugby players around the world none of the dragons players stand out.

Now I'm not saying Prydie and Evans aren't quick, but by modern back 3 standards I'm willing to bet my mortgage says they are average at best (Prydie wasn't quickest at Swansea over 5/10m).

I'm not saying Harries is weak, he is a strong lad but again by modern day standards he'w not going to be shrugging opposing wingers off any time soon.

Chav I said is quick, but the dropped balls and poor skill, even only semi opposed is not good.

[thebluesmancometh]

As I said I'm not slating these players, Evans and Prydie are very classy and will be very good signings, maybe even reach int level if they keep improving, but you have to keep some perspective.

I'm not running around saying Gavin Evans, Hewitt, Jame, Czecs, Sweeney are world beaters, they are also just club players and have numerous flaws.

I was merely stating that the Dragons will have an edge, but won't have anything to cut the Blues to ribbons in the backline.

[wales606]

Sweeney Hat Trick, 5 conversions with 2 long range penalties and a cheeky back heel drop goal.

Calling it now.

Tovey to come on at FB to score the other 2 tries for Sweeney to convert?

[Smirnoffpriest]

I've also heard that Prydie was a Wales 100m record holder for a while at a certain age grade before he got into rugby, and he is fast, Evans has a nice turn of acceleration but maybe isn't the fastest, he can still spot a gap. Chavy I'd say has as good (or as bad as depending on your POV) a ball skills as Tom James IMO, and while Tuilagi is very poor I think Hughes and Harries are dangerous at regional level when given the chance - though of course I haven't seen the Dragons this year.

[wales606]

Damn it, my post disappeared.

Prydie vs Robinson will be interesting, unfortunately, I think Prydie will win it.

On the other hand, the Dragons have nobody to stop Cuthbert on the other wing.

Cuthbert broke the first tackle every time last week, except for one when he was tackled by 3 players at one.

If Cuthbert is drawing 3 men out wide and Roberts is fit to draw a couple in the midfield, it could really open up the Dragons defense...I hope.

[ScarletSpiderman]

As I said I'm not slating these players, Evans and Prydie are very classy and will be very good signings, maybe even reach int level if they keep improving, but you have to keep some perspective.

I'm not running around saying Gavin Evans, Hewitt, Jame, Czecs, Sweeney are world beaters, they are also just club players and have numerous flaws.

I was merely stating that the Dragons will have an edge, but won't have anything to cut the Blues to ribbons in the backline.

Ain't they both done that already seeing as they are capped?

I personally would say that Thom James and Czekaj may be faster than Prydie and Evans in a straight line, but in a weaving run I would put money on Prydie and Evans beig quicker. I guess it is just how you determine pace, and speed.

[munkian]

To be fair, Tuilagi has lost alot of excess weight and has improved ALOT during the season break.

And we don't need to cut the Blues to shreds, we just have to be slightly faster and dynamic than them. Having watched the recent Blues games this hopefuly shouldnt be a problem, especially if they are missing Halfpenny.

[thebluesmancometh]

SS

I determine speed and pace the way the WRU tests for it...

Accel 5/10/20m
TV 20m (30 rolling)
Agility Illinois/T tests (both very poor IMO)
IRT Yo Yo

Not sure who mentioned the 100m but whith regards to rugby it's about as appropriate as an egg and spoon comp.

With regards to rugby the average player sprints just over 8m, and the average back sprints just over 14m.

Czecs is very very lethargic for a back 3 player (used to be much more dynamic before leg break) Tom James is surprisingly agile, but not particularly quick.

Also Prydie was not capped for his ability, he was capped with Phillips for a bit of experience so he can develop his ability, same way Robinson has been capped, neither are up to international standard yet but may be one day.

[munkian]

I'm sorry but again, that's just your opinion.

If Prydie didnt have ability then he wouldnt have been capped in the first place. And he scored a try against SA on his debut I believe.

[ScarletSpiderman]

Prydie has a fair few welsh caps, and was looking rather safe in the shirt until injury. Phillips (kirs) has not been capped.

Also I appreciate that you know your stuff by naming tests, but have you tested these player, or seen their most recent test result? The best way to tell which is more pacey, agile will be when they line up against each other, and how they perform against each other in the real heat of battle and not just on the training pitch.

[thebluesmancometh]

SS / Munkian

No, when they line up in the heat of battle their are a million and one variants, team mates, situations, crowd, game trends etc... thats no way to rate them.

I'm not just trying to name tests, I have been involved in tons of testing in SW for the last few seasons, have seen training sessions on tons of occasions, and know plenty who do so regularly.

If Prydie had the ability he would've had a regional game under his belt, instead he was playing well in the prem and Gatland (who tends to take a risk on an unknown) calls him up for some experience. Prydie was not looking safe in the int team until injury at all, he was called up, given some gametime and then dropped of which he went back to the prem for a long time, and it was decided he wasn't good enough for the O's and released wasn't it?

Like Ive said SS, I am not slating these players, they are good and IMO classy and they'll go far, but they are not world beaters in both skill or out and out speed. Thats all Ive said.

[ScarletSpiderman]

Bluesman - that prob came out a bit too shirty from me mate, not meant like that. What I meant is what they do on the pitch is all that matters, not how well they test up, as on the pitch is where they play and win /lose games on on the training paddock

[Luckless Pedestrian]

Tom James is surprisingly agile, but not particularly bright.

Agreed.

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