HC round 4 - now the dust has settled.

With Quins needing a point, ASM two points, and Ulster five points from their last two games to top their Pools, the likely home quarter finalists are shaping up.

I would expect Toulon to claim the other home q/f, but that is not guaranteed with the mercurial Montpellier still to play.

Pools 1 & 2 could still throw up a home quarter finalist, but they would need the front runners in the other Pools to slip up badly.

At this stage my home quarter finalists, in order of seeding are:-

ASM
Ulster
Quins
Toulon
Leicester
Saracens
Montpellier
Munster or Northampton.

I am sure there will be plenty of people promoting good reasons why their own team will make it, so let's hear them.

And remember, it's the season of goodwill.

Can't argue too much with that, though Racing Metro might also be in with a shout.

Are you a Leicester fan?

Hound is a Wasps fan so probably not

I would think that Toulouse are more likely than Leicester, I don't think Leicester can guaranty a win in Swansea and I imagine Toulouse will be fighting very hard to qualify when they go to Welford Road.

Maes - you can argue that for a lot of teams. I just looked at the Pools after round 4, who everyone has to play, and where. It is just a stab at how I think it will all shake out.

As I said, Pools 1 & 2 are still wide open with three potential table toppers in both. If Toulouse turn up at Welford Road in the same way they did at the Liberty, I can see Tigers beating them and denying them a bp.

Similarly, if the Ospreys can put a similar strong showing against Tigers as they did against Toulouse, then the Os can qualify, provided they get a try bp win at Treviso.

Toulouse have looked a bit lacklustre this season and last, and I can't see them making the cut.

5 out of 5 for the English clubs capped a great weekend for them.
With some close wins.

ASM, Toulon, Ulster & Quins look like the teams capable of going all the way.

But still a lot to play for.

5 out of 6 Trev. Sale let the Prem down having been royally stuffed by Toulon earlier today. 6 out of 7 for the T14, with Toulouse being their only beaten team.

Hound_of_Harrow wrote:5 out of 6 Trev. Sale let the Prem down having been royally stuffed by Toulon earlier today. 6 out of 7 for the T14, with Toulouse being their only beaten team.

Does that dispell the myths of the RP teams as having a massive advantage....?

Good weekend for the English and French clubs, and the one true welsh region, the only team to beat a French side. Against many odds.

Hound_of_Harrow wrote:5 out of 6 Trev. Sale let the Prem down having been royally stuffed by Toulon earlier today. 6 out of 7 for the T14, with Toulouse being their only beaten team.

Oops yes Hound forgot about Sale! Interesting weekend with a lot of surprises.

maestegmafia wrote:I would think that Toulouse are more likely than Leicester, I don't think Leicester can guaranty a win in Swansea and I imagine Toulouse will be fighting very hard to qualify when they go to Welford Road.

As it stands Tigers dont need a win in Swansea just a LBP and deny Toulouse of one at WR, despite not showing any real form in the past 2 games that is very do-able especially considering Toulouse's away performance in Swansea.

I wonder who would of predicted defeat for all the irish sides this weekend. I expected 2 home wins this weekend goes to show how unpredictable the Heinken can be.

tecphobe wrote:I wonder who would of predicted defeat for all the irish sides this weekend. I expected 2 home wins this weekend goes to show how unpredictable the Heinken can be.

Blimey, I've just realised that the Os were the only Rabo team (out of eleven!!) to win. Can't remember when we last saw those sorts of results, if ever.

Well, you know how it goes Hound.

That means the Rabo Pro12 is a weak league and the teams aren't good enough for the Heineken Cup. Now, imagine 10 out of 11 sides Rabo sides had won! Now that could only be caused by the Rabo Pro12 being a weak league which gives its sides an unfair advantage when it comes to the Heineken Cup.

This is in fact the worst weekend for Irish Rugby in the Heineken Cup since 2007, the weekend Munster first lost at Thomond Park.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/1217/1224327923774.html#.UM7Yyc5AyZ0.twitter

Gives an interesting spin on the game between Ulster and Leinster at Ravenhill on Friday. Both teams just suffered a major blow to their confidence and will have to react like champions. Ulster are in a better position, but Leinster ARE champions.

Can't wait to see that game.

Toulon, Clermont and quins are nailed on for a home QF IMO. Ulster should join them but the highest seeding I think we will get is 3rd. Sarries should get through with Leicester (I cannot see Toulouse winning at welford road).

If I was guessing I would ulster will host sarries or Leicester with Toulon hosting the other.

Munster will I think qualify But then it is anyone's.

I love the fact that everyone bills the O's Tolouse win as an absolute shocker, except when you consider Tolouse record in Cardiff and Swansea as not particularly good!!!

MM you need to leave off the 'one true region' garbage, I notice it only comes out when O's win and tbh they really only carry the double name.

I think Hound has the right lineup for the home QFs (though not necessarily the right order for seeding purposes), and given the mixed form of the remaining teams you'd probably expect 4 home victories.

I certainly wouldn't expect ASM or Toulon to lose at home, and as long as Ulster get over this weekend's wobble they look good for it too. The worry for Quins would be drawing another AP team - Sarries and Tigers both have good records at the Stoop in recent years. I'd be more confident - ironically enough - facing an Irish or French team!

How does the semi-final draw get determined?

I'd be more confident - ironically enough - facing an Irish or French team!

Good luck with that! If I were quins I would want anyone over Ulster or Munster, maybe except ASM but that won't happen!

The danger for quins is that their group isn't the most difficult. With respect Toulon are the same. Clermont look in great shape though.

thebluesmancometh wrote:I'd be more confident - ironically enough - facing an Irish or French team!

Good luck with that! If I were quins I would want anyone over Ulster or Munster, maybe except ASM but that won't happen!

Not quite what I meant. On the assumption that Ulster and ASM are also on track for home QFs, Quins wouldn't face them until at least the semis. But I would happily face the current Munster side in preference to Leicester or Sarries. Remember that Quins beat Munster at Thomond the last time they met, and I would say that the Quins squad today is stronger than the squad that played that day, whereas the Munster squad is if anything slightly weaker.

Poorfour wrote:

thebluesmancometh wrote:I'd be more confident - ironically enough - facing an Irish or French team!

Good luck with that! If I were quins I would want anyone over Ulster or Munster, maybe except ASM but that won't happen!

Not quite what I meant. On the assumption that Ulster and ASM are also on track for home QFs, Quins wouldn't face them until at least the semis. But I would happily face the current Munster side in preference to Leicester or Sarries. Remember that Quins beat Munster at Thomond the last time they met, and I would say that the Quins squad today is stronger than the squad that played that day, whereas the Munster squad is if anything slightly weaker.

Id love to see Leinster sneak through and get quins for reasons which are to obvious to mention. I think barnes would have a seizure in excitement with that draw

thebluesmancometh wrote:I love the fact that everyone bills the O's Tolouse win as an absolute shocker, except when you consider Tolouse record in Cardiff and Swansea as not particularly good!!!

MM you need to leave off the 'one true region' garbage, I notice it only comes out when O's win and tbh they really only carry the double name.

Toulouse record so far this season without McAlister is zero wins so no the osprey win wasnt a shocker. Doussain is clearly not a fly half.

tecphobe wrote:

Poorfour wrote:

thebluesmancometh wrote:I'd be more confident - ironically enough - facing an Irish or French team!

Good luck with that! If I were quins I would want anyone over Ulster or Munster, maybe except ASM but that won't happen!

Not quite what I meant. On the assumption that Ulster and ASM are also on track for home QFs, Quins wouldn't face them until at least the semis. But I would happily face the current Munster side in preference to Leicester or Sarries. Remember that Quins beat Munster at Thomond the last time they met, and I would say that the Quins squad today is stronger than the squad that played that day, whereas the Munster squad is if anything slightly weaker.

Id love to see Leinster sneak through and get quins for reasons which are to obvious to mention. I think barnes would have a seizure in excitement with that draw

I've speculated about that as a possible draw... mixed feelings about it. The media feeding frenzy would be very annoying, but it might finally lay the ghost for good. For starters, Quins have a better replacement FH, and a better DoR, this time around (and I suspect that had COS been in charge in the original game, he'd have done what most of the fans wanted and put Gomarsall on at 9 with Care shifting to 10, and gone for the drop goal. People often forget that the only reason for the shenanigans was that Quins lost their replacement FH to a freak injury after he'd been on the field for only a few minutes; it's a tough ask to play 20-odd mins of a Heino QF without a FH).

Not to mention that COS has gone native despite Leinster being his home province . Funnily enough the whole situation for the reasons outlines above has maybe been a blessing in disguise for Quins

Poorfour

I see what you mean now, but I don't think Ulster are guarentee'd home tie yet.

I also as a quins performer would want Munster on the surface, but I think this Munster team have the ability to strangle the Quins play whereas the quins have the ability to take both Leicester and Sarries, does that make sense? I'm not claiming any of the 4 teams are better than any, just that Munster have the ability to dominate a quins team whereas Sarries and Leicester are looking like they would be looking to outplay anyone, instead of just being brutal up front. But then as said quins group has been a bit of a walkover, and would they want to face familiar opposition or not?

tecphobe wrote:Not to mention that COS has gone native despite Leinster being his home province . Funnily enough the whole situation for the reasons outlines above has maybe been a blessing in disguise for Quins

Not to hijack the thread completely, but I have to say that I agree. I did not think we would find a DoR to replace Deano, and there was much scepticism of the "who he?" variety when COS was appointed, but I think today there are very few Quins fans who would swap him for anyone else. He has provided the missing 5% it took to turn a talented bunch of players into a winning team, has proven an exceptionally canny squad manager and, more than anything, has created huge loyalty and team spirit within the squad. We are immensely proud and grateful to have him.

Interestingly, I see a lot of similarity between him and Stuart Lancaster (who in his previous role succeeded COS when the latter left the RFU) - and I see a similar pattern in how the England squad are developing.

Having seen them play yesterday, I'd take Munster any dy of the week. They lost because they tried to force the game and weren't capable of plying a forward/set piece based strangling game. Happily face them

blues, Sarries in the AP are the arch-stranglers, and of all the teams we've played are the ones most able to constrain our gameplan. I'll admit that Munster (or Ulster) could do the same, but are less used to how we play and I would expect them to struggle to contain it for the full 80 minutes. Quins' defence is - when they are up for it - good enough to absorb the pressure for 70 minutes and score enough in the remaining 10 to win. Familiarity works against us there.

Leicester, on paper, we should be able to beat (with good victories in our last two encounters). But I've been supporting Quins for 9 years now, and have never seen them beat the Tigers at the Stoop (and until last year, had never seen them beat the Tigers anywhere. Seen it now, but not at home!).

CJ

Ye thinnking about the way they are trying to play now, leaving forwards out wide constantly it is probably a good time to play them. They are still a very good team but they are trying to learn a new style at present, I think I was considering the Munster of last season.

ChequeredJersey wrote:Having seen them play yesterday, I'd take Munster any dy of the week. They lost because they tried to force the game and weren't capable of plying a forward/set piece based strangling game. Happily face them

Rob penny is i think falling between two stools with munster. I do believe there are the young players coming through at muster for them to return to were they were before. However i do think he's right in trying to change the approach somewhat. However this will not bare fruit with ROG legend of irish rugby that he is playing 10 purely because team know he offers no threat to the line himself and the depth at which he plays. Of the 4 irish provinces ulster are best placed over the next 3-4 seasons to challenge as when you look at the key decison making area they have guys who are on the right side of the curve and are only going to get better.

I see us making the semi-final. Pretty scared of Toulon or ASM though, think they could give our pack hell

key decison making area they have guys who are on the right side of the curve and are only going to get better

This is where I think Ulster have done so well, but Leinster for me are still the front runners when they have a half fit squad. IMHO the key decision makers are what are driving Ulster to play the way they are.

What Penney is trying to do is create a totall rugby atmosphere in Munster, and on paper that sounds great, with the likes of Keatley, POM, Ryan and the younger boys but the older players are struggling with it. I think he's better to just stay with the ethos of Thomond, and the players he brings through just slotting into the roles of the older boys when necesary.

I applaud what Penneys trying to do, but I don't think it will be ultimately succesfull!

The QF are still a long way off. Even assuming the last two games in the pools go as planned there is plenty of time for key players to get injured (hopefully not) or new guys to come good (hopefully). There are plenty of examples of teams struggling the first half of the season and tearing it up in the latter part as things begin to click or missing players return or the new young covering player is a revalation.

I'd be happy to draw Leicester or a Rabo side, maybe even Saracens too depending upon if Farrel brings his kicking boots or not.

The French clubs though are very very scary, it's not just their galactico all-stay 1st XV's that you need to worry about, oh no, Quins could probably compete with any of them, it's the bench-crammed-with-internationals tactic that's built up over the last few seasons that would do for us. Imagine Stegmann, Clegg, Mayhew or Synckler having to come on to face those guys.

It's really only Clermont and Toulon that can enjoy some good strenght in depht thanks to little injury. Toulouse even played the now retired Servat at hooker this season and cant find a decent fly half to make up numbers. And unless you are scared of Hape, there is not much to feared in Montpelier bench.
Harlequins should not face RCT or ASM in the QF though.

No but in the semis we easily could. I think we should make the semis but will then probably get knocked out

I'd agree with that CJ. It'd be great just to make the semi's this year and let the players have a bit more big game experience.

Whocares what's up with Toulouse? They looked really flat over the double header and seemed to have been a bit past it for the last couple of seasons in Europe. Are they focussing more on the T14?

The thing is if you are lucky enough to be drawn a home semi even against the French giants, its probably 50/50 and then a HC final looms......

Lets not get ahead of ourselves though havent even finished the group stages yet.

ChequeredJersey wrote:No but in the semis we easily could. I think we should make the semis but will then probably get knocked out

Should Quins, or anyone else, play ASM or Toulon the key is rapid ball at the breakdown, keep the ball alive with strong support play and offloads, and change the angle of attack. Quins did it to brilliant effect against Munster in the Amlin a couple of seasons back.

Big packs are only effective at the set piece and the breakdown; make them run all over the park.