Is there anyone who can end Rafael Nadal's run on clay?

So far its two clay tournaments played, two Rafa Nadal victories, same finalist in David Ferrer.

The Times tennis journalist, Neil Harman, has written a good piece today and offers his thoughts on who the five most likely to stop Rafa are. As the season gears up for the first mandatory 1000 Series at Madrid where all players must participate, what do you think of his list and reasoning? Are there any others that you would add? Or will Rafa once again be too good for them all ...

The article is by subscription only, but this is Neil's list with my interpretation of his musings ...

The five most likely

Andy Murray if he believes that he can beat him ... and Andy does.

Novak Djokovic so long as he mentally gets over his successive losses against him on the surface.

Roger Federer has only ever had 2 victories, but can he still be a threat?

David Ferrer if he can believes that he can beat him, but unlike Andy, he doesn't seem to.

Robin Söderling had that unforgettable victory at RG in 2009 but can he find his form ... and quickly.

For me, the only one to beat Rafa on clay is Nole. Yes Andy played well in MC, but I'm not so sure his form is still what it was. Feds...nope, I just can't see it. Daveed keeps running him close, but just seems to fall short (no pun intended) and Soderling's form seems woeful.....I really do believe he'll start to slide a little down the rankings.

All this depends on Rafa of course....I really believe that on Clay, he does direct his own destiny, he's such a master on the stuff, that even playing below par he can still win tourneys, but as he said, he takes nothing for granted and it's those 3 or 4 points that can be the difference between winning and losing.

I will be watching JMDP with interest. Giraldo had some success hitting through Rafa at Barcelona, but he's not good enough to keep that up. Perhaps JMDP is.

It is intriguing to see he thinks David Ferrer can beat Rafa on the red stuff. I don't think Ferrer has it mentally to beat Rafa on clay because the final on Sunday showed that. 4-2 in the second and he lost 4 games in a row after that.

I think Federer and Djokovic would be the main 2 I would think can beat Rafa on clay. I would put Murray and Del Potro as outsiders who have the game to trouble him.

It will be interesting to see the draw for RG.

I agree with your summation of Ferrer, legend. In MC, David should have done enough to take that second set to a TB and he should have done more in the second again on Sunday. He's a very good clay court player but fails always in the sight of Rafa.

As for Federer ... I think its come the time now where Rafa has his number on all surfaces and Federer was so poor against Melzer that he has to step it up in Madrid and Rome or he is beatable in the latter stages.

To be honest ... I think we are all waiting to see what Nole brings ...

Del Potro could blast Nadal off a clay court.

Soderling was a fluke, indicated by the pounding he took the following year at Roland Garros.

Federer's victories where due to Nadal being knackered. Every pther time Nadal has beaten him with ease(bar Rome which was an epic).

Djokovic has the better of Nadal on H/C, clay he can't get the job done eg Madrid 09.

Murray? No chance.

Sonic, I think the purpose of woffies article is to ask us about right now, not two year old stats or about Nadal being knackered 3 years ago.

If Del Potro could blast Nadal off a clay court, why hasn't he done so ???
His last clay wins were in 2008..

29/2008 Kitzbuhel (AUT)
28/2008 Stuttgart (GER)

I wouldn't call that "blasting" anyone off a clay court.

This guy thinks he has the answer to your question... ()

I invite all you knowledgeable posters to enter Nole's Place where I have discussed the various ways that Novak can beat Rafa on clay. Would I favor Novak in a majority of matches over Rafa on clay, no I wouldn't. But I think Novak will find a way to beat Rafa this year at one of the two clay court master's events that remain.

Federer has no chance right now, Andy maybe if he can keep it together, and JMDP also can trouble Rafa on the clay. But the most likely is Novak.

Reasons are that Djokovic is a great mover, has heavy groundstrokes from both sides. And most importantly he has the ability to get Rafa scrambling by going up the line consistently off of both wings. Also he returns so well that he should be in the running during most of Rafa's service games. What was lacking in the last two or three years for Djokovic has been fitness, his serve, and belief. All three areas are greatly improved this year.

Just read your analysis socal. I think a fair comment is that at the moment I think people are carried away by Djokovic's start to the season as he remains unbeaten and has played some amazing tennis on the hard courts and recent results against Nadal have been brilliant. I think my only concern for Djokovic is the match practice on clay as Nadal has now won 2 tournaments on clay and Djokovic will begin playing tomorrow in the Serbia Open. Both players will then be at Rome and I wonder is that enough for Djokovic to challenge Rafa on clay?

I think the Murray v Nadal match at MC showed that if you can get in Rafa's mind and game that you can find a way to beat him on clay. Andy mixed he lengths up beautifully and was able to attack Nadals forehand side when he was in a position to hit a winner. Murray in a way used the same tactic that Nadal used against Federer in Miami which was to attack the backhand and completely break it down. I question if Djokovic has the discipline to do that.

legendkilla, I agree that many fans are taking notice of Djokovic's performance and the media as well is jumping on the bandwagon. But, you must remember Djokovic didn't come out of nowhere he has been ranked in the top 3 for nearly 5 years straight. Before this season he had over a dozen victories against Fed and Nadal.

Djokovic has a couple of advantages over Murray. First, he has the ability to go up the line with the forehand where Murray simply doesn't hit that shot as well as Djoko. Along with Davydenko, Djoko is maybe the best guy on tour, and has been for years at going up the line off of both wings consistently and aggressively. Murray isn't as good on that shot. Secondly, Djokovic has more belief right now and hits the ball with heavier spin off of both wings. Frankly, I think Nadal got a bit fortunate, Murray if not for losing his focus and picking up a knock on his elbow probably could have won that match.

Now again I'd like to emphasize that Nole will lose a majority of matches against Rafa on clay, Rafa is probably the greatest clay court player in history. But with the strategy that I detailed in the Nole's pub article, I feel that he will maximize his chances and be able to beat Nadal on clay if he plays well and executes this strategy.

socal. I think Djokovic is the in form player out the moment and I think has found the way to beat Nadal on the hard courts. I think the point I would debate on your thread in Nole pub would be the serve points as Nadal very much returns everything. Even with Murray serving well like he did on his first serve only got 2 aces all match which shows how good on returns Nadal is on clay. I agree with the forehand that Djokovic's is much more stronger than Murray's. I think the one thing that Djokovic lacks is the variation that say Murray has because he plays so aggressively.

I think the big difference in Djokovic's game is the mentality and I think that has come from the Davis Cup win for Serbia. I just hope he can maintain that because I believe he is the main challenger to Nadal this year.

A good analysis you made anyway on the Nole thread.

[color=darkblue]Yes Djokovic is playing well this year - undefeated & 4 titles - but how will he respond once he loses a match - the pressure will slowly but surely increase for him. The expectation for him to keep winning is only going to increase & he may not be mentally strong enough to deal with it.

That said, I would put Djokovic in as a threat, along with Del Potro, Gulbis & Soderling.

And Madrid rather than Rome is the most likely place for the loss to come.

It will be interesting to see 'how' Djokovic wins the Serbian Open. I fully expect him to but the manner of his wins & how he improves throughout the week will be very important.[/colour]

Djokovic seems to have gained some self belief this year, and has pushed Rafa really close on clay in the past, so I can see him doing it.

Murray raises his game for Rafa, and but for his injury at MC who knows what might have happened? He has the game to trouble Rafa certainly.

Fed I can't see doing it, he's been pretty poor this year IMO (by his standars) and on clay Rafa has his number.

Del Potro is an interesting one, if he gets back to his best I think he has a chance.

Ferrer doesn't believe he can beat Rafa, so probably won't (on clay obviously).

Soderling is playing rubbish at the moment, needs to turn it around quickly. He has the advantage of having done it before though.

Also if Rafa plays at his best he won't lose.

If I had to rank them I'd go

1) Djokovic
2) Muray
3) Del Potro
4) the rest

legendkilla, thank you for the kind acknowledgement, to a certain extent variation is important but on a clay court volleying and the slice backhand, are less effective. Therefore, variation to a certain degree is a bit less important (ie except the drop shot which is even more effective) than hitting a good consistent and heavy ball off both wings and being able to run. As I stated before, Murray really could have won his match against Nadal if not for a loss of composure and a bit of a knock that he suffered. Yes Rafa returns well on clay, but Novak lead the ATP tour in break percentage in 2010 and is at the top of statistic charts again this year. They both are great returners.

Graf is the greatest, certainly the ATP season is long, and I wouldn't be surprised if Novak hits a slump or a low point during the season, every player does even the guy who finishes number #1 will have an off match here or there. But, I would reemphasize the point that this isn't a neophyte that we are talking about. We are talking about a player who is in his 5th straight season of being in the top three, who has a davis cup, olympic medal, 2 grandslams, 7 master's shields, and year end world tour finals crown. It isn't like he shot up from number #100 a few a months ago. He is entering his physical prime, he has matured mentally, worked out the kinks in his game and his conditioning; and barring injury I expect him to challenge for the top spot.

Lets remember that it is Rafa who has a history of injuries and who has a history of fading in the last quarter of the ATP schedule. And he isn't a particularly great indoor player to begin with so that usually effects his play at the end of the season. While Djoko has played about 80 matches a year in each of the last few seasons.

Rafa has two strategies on clay.

(1) Pummel the backhand of a single handed backhander as the slower bounce and Rafa's excessive topspin gives it height which makes it so hard for them to generate any power, and invariably they hit it cross-court which is right into his leftie forehand (another advantage); or

(2) Have patience in constructing the points and use his supreme fitness and footwork to make his opponents move from side to side, and wider and wider where they then get tired and make an unforced error, or hit short and he moves in for an easy put away shot.

Strategy (1) as we know, is used consistenly on Federer and as he has only had 2 victories over him on clay and is not playing with any form himself right now, I don't see him as a threat. As Andy and Nole both have a two-handed backhand and so can generate better power, and with this being Andy's better shot, this strategy is not as effective. So he tends to apply Strategy (2).

Murray always plays his best against Rafa, and has worked hard on his fitness to keep with him in rallies, so doesn't tire quite as quickly and Murray has also developed a play of keeping Rafa on his backhand which if he works hard enough, occasionally breaks down. He sometimes rushes Rafa into trying to make the winner because Murray is happy to just keep retrieving and putting the ball back in play, when usually it is Rafa who aggressively retrieves then gets on top of his opponent and so often we see Rafa's winning shot being one of the simplest he's played in the point. Where I think Murray lacks is he mentally implodes if something doesn't go quite right and for all of his retrieval tactics, sometimes he just has to take a risk and take the play to him. I say this because the longer Rafa keeps Murray out there, his greater the chances of a win.

I still feel the big question mark is over Nole and what he will do in this clay court season. I believe Rafa has beaten him before because of his superior fitness and essentially, just ultimately wearing him out. That, and his better mental attitude. However, we've seen how Nole's fitness has improved, he's ironing out [some] kinks in his mental game, the health issues seem to have dispersed so as we saw in the US, he can certainly keep up and sometimes better Rafa. What I will add is that Rafa came back after an injury lay off and perhaps his conditioning wasn't all it should have been then. This time its Nole coming back after an injury related lay off, what will his conditioning be like, he still has to find his clay feet and keep himself going over 3 straight weeks of play with only 1 week off before the FO.

We'll just have to watch this space ...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/tennis/13189582.stm
Well its obvious that Nole has the confidence.. bordering on cockiness actually... however that aside yes I believe Nole to be the only one at the moment who could be considered a seriousl threat to Rafa... over three sets I can see him taking Rafa down... Rafa is hard to beat over five on any surface .. on clay ?? I still think RG is Rafa´s to lose and Madrid is so close to Rafa´s heart.. if Nole can prise Rafa´s teeth of that particularly trophy then he deserves it IMO

Haddie, I don't think he was being cocky, he said beating Nadal on clay is the ultimate test, (something he has failed at 9 times)and how Rafa is the king of the surface. I just think he was stating the obvious. To be among the best you have to believe you can beat anyone on any surface. I didn't take it as sleight of Rafa if you read some of his other quotes in that interview. The press just chose to emphasize the quote where he said he thinks he can beat Rafa on clay. Obviously, they are going to highlight the one semi-controversial statement, they have to sell advertising and newspapers. Frankly, any top player who didn't go into a match against any opponent without the belief that he can win, will not succeed. And again he didn't say, I guarantee victory, he said I can win.

Wooffie makes some salient points, it is hard to tell how Novak will play after a bit of a layoff. And generally, Wooffie is correct that against Murray and Novak he doesn't have the same advantage in hitting a lot of heavy cross court forehands to their backhands. Both players handle the high backhand much better than Fed does, having great double handers. In my opinion if Rafa played the way he did against Murray in that semi in Monaco against Nole, Nole would have won the match.

Yes well view it either way socal..but I have always believed Nole to be cocky.. that isnt to say that i dont like him.. but he is cocky nonetheless.
Its as well he does believe and I am still of the opinion that beating Rafa over three is different to beating him over five. And I feel that Madrid is going to be the one that will give us all what we are waiting to see. Rafa will not capitulate easy So I say bring it on Nole bring it on

I read a good article by Steve Tignor on Tennis.com today who brought up some salient points regarding Rafa. One was a reminder that whilst any loss by him on clay is somewhat met with seismic proportions, it should be firmly noted that only once has he ever done a 3 x Masters/RG sweep and that was last year.

So checking back on his stats, in 2009 he lost to Federer (Madrid) and Soderling (RG); in 2008 he lost in Rome to Juan Carlos Ferrer; in 2007 he lost in Hamburg to Federer and whilst he won all of MC, Barcelona, Rome and RG in 2005 and 2006, I think there was just the 2 that counted as Masters.

So if - as a number of you are suggesting - that A.N. Other is successful in one of the up-coming Masters ... well, Rafa's record shows that it happens. So I would suggest that a Masters loss should be met with a bit a of temperance and only if he loses the lot could it be seen as absolute doom.

Haddie, I can't wait for these two to square off again. The match in miami was a great display. Hopefully, they will both remain healthy and duke it out in many finals this season. I can't wait to see what these two guys who move so remarkably well will do in a clay court match. It is going to be a battle of will, talent, and fitness. And you are correct, beating Nadal in five sets is really tough, especially on clay it is going to be very difficult to unseat him at Roland Garros. Novak's best shot is in Madrid or Rome.

And Wooffie is right it would be pretty amazing for Nadal to pull a complete sweep of the clay court season like he did last year. I think if Novak continues to play the way he has this season, and if he executes a smart game plan then he can get a Master's shield off of Nadal on clay. Here is were I disagree with Wooffie, losing a clay master's event this season for Nadal would be seismic. Especially, if Djoko is the one to unseat him lets say at Madrid. If Rafa doesn't sweep the next three events his chances of retaining the #1 will be seriously damaged. Assuming Djoko has good health, with the start of the season he has had, if he can get a 1000 pointer off of Nadal on clay he is well positioned to take the year end #1. Plus that many losses to your main rival at the start of the season is tough to recover from. If he loses a clay master's to Djokovic his lead in the ATP standings would be almost cut in half.

Points!! Where is Stealth cos this is where I come unstuck.

I still don't see the loss of one Masters on clay to be that big a deal. Nole would gain 1000, but doesn't the RU get 600, so Nole will have closed the gap by 400 points. Bear in mind that Rafa’s 500 points from last week still have to go on his tally, so that’s why I don’t think it too catastrophic.

But I’m prepared to be corrected.

This article is about who can beat Rafa on clay, and Nole seems to be coming through as the likely candidate. But couldn’t someone take Nole out? Ferrer can’t seem to take it to Rafa, but could he have the game and mental strength to beat Nole? Nole was losing in the latter stages last year to people like Verdasco. Why should we assume on clay that he will stroll through to a final meeting with Rafa.? Wouldn’t Andy have something to bring to the party if facing him??

Maybe Federer will surprise everybody.

After all he is due a break

I keep reading that Djokovic is a great returner, but surely this in on H/C.

The best returner on clay is Nadal, and by a mega margin.

Djoko is a decent returner on clay. Nothing more, nothing less.

Again, Wooffie I agree there are other contenders that have a shot of unseating Novak on Clay. Roger, Ferrer, and Murray to name a few. But you see Rafa would lose 400 points and Novak would gain at least few hundred points so it would be a net plus or minus of over a thousand. The points Rafa loses, plus the points Novak gains. We are again as you correctly point out dealing in hypotheticals and other players have a better chance of unseating Novak than Rafa.

But I stand by my point, if Rafa loses a Master's event to Djoko on clay, or even worse yet RG (which I think is pretty safe for Rafa) then it would be pretty catastrhophic both from a psychological perspective and in terms of points. Remember the season at the end is a points race, (ignore the weekly rankings for now)and Novak would have a leg up in the race on Rafa. Lets assume that Novak wins Madrid and Serbia.

That puts him at 5750 points with just six out of 19 qualifying tournaments. Meaning that with less than 1/3 of the season through he would nearly half the points required to be #1. 11,500-13,000 points will probably get you the number one ranking. All of those points gained with 3 grandslams, 5 master's, and the year end finals all remaining to garner more points in. He would at that point have to slump and Nadal would have to really surge to finish year end #1.

Stealth please check my analysis.

PS would really like you hardcore Rafa fans to check out my analysis in Nole's Place of how I think Djoko can beat Nadal on clay. Still with all this being said I would still favor Rafa pretty strongly when the two meet on a clay court.

sonic boom, actually Novak is a great returner period. He lead the ATP in break percentage in 2010, on all surfaces. And he is leading or near the lead this year. Returning on clay is actually easier for him and most returners, that is why you rarely see the big servers do well on clay court and why you see more breaks of serve in general. Novak is the best returner in the business, Rafa is right there with him. But I think it is a great exaggeration to claim that the margin between their return game on clay or otherwise is "mega".