USO - The Quarter Finals

Two men's and two women's quarters today. Schwartzman may be fatigued after his tremendous efforts so far, so CB may have the edge in this one.
   Querrey v Anderson is tough to call. Q won a long five-setter between the two at Wimbledon. I think the American will win but it could go either way.
   Same thoughts about Venus v Kvitova. If Petra plays well she'll probably have too much for Venus, but it's another 50-50 match. I'm taking Sloane S to win her quarter.

Schwartzman looked injured in his last match. Unless he's recovered incredibly well, hard to see him being able to beat PCB.

Agree about Querrey v Anderson. Very hard to call but possibly the home support may give Querrey the edge.

PCB should win comfortably, unless Diego has recovered extremely well.

Querrey small favourite against Anderson for me. Home support should see him through....could go long though.

Agree with whoever said that Rublev is a potentially trickier opponent for Nadal than Goffin, and the youngster is the sort of big-hitting opponent who can trouble him on these courts, whereas Goffin's game wouldn't have caused him too many problems. I still think Nadal will win that match but I think it could go the distance.

I think Del Potro's exploits against Thiem will take their toll against Federer, and I can see Fed winning that match in 4 sets. To stand a chance I think Del Po will need to mix things up in the match, coming to the net a few times and avoiding Federer setting the pace for the match.

Agree that PCB should win easily. Anderson v Querrey is an interesting one - the South African has often fallen short at 3rd/4th round stage in slams and has typically underperformed, whereas Querrey's results at Wimbledon over last couple of years have been v impressive. Mentally I think Querrey is the stronger player and he ought to edge this in 4 tight sets.

Busta to beat Schwartzman in five sets.
Querrey to beat Anderson in four sets.
Nadal to beat Rublev in three sets.
Federer to beat Del Potro in four sets.

I just think this will be one round too far for Rublev or should I say too big a challenge too soon. Roger should have too much for Del Potro who must be shattered and especially if he still has that virus. Querrey with home support could help him a lot but also could hinder but just think he is in the more consistent form this year. Busta against Shwartzman is the tightest match I'd say but take Busta to edge it.

It seems that to beat Nadal you have got to force him behind the baseline and to take time away from him - a combination of power, accuracy, stamina, and variety is needed for that.  I think Goffin lacks the crucial element of power to put it to Nadal so I'd agree that Rublev's outside chance is probably better than Goffin's.

We tend to remember the USO 2009 final, why wouldn't we, but Fed's record vs. del Boy is strong (16:5) so you have to favour Fed in most circumstances.  That said, there is another real danger of playing del Boy - namely beating him saps too much energy for the next round.

Bottom half, I go for a SF of PCB v. Querrey...

I'm going to say - despite the notable absentees - this has been an intriguing tourney and that the closing stages are in no way lacking in interest. Don't know how many feel the same way, and of course I'd like something closer to a full field by the time the next Slam rolls along. But the fact is we have been treated to some good contests, with hopefully more still to come. And yet more upsets perhaps ........

barrystar wrote:................................

We tend to remember the USO 2009 final, why wouldn't we, but Fed's record vs. del Boy is strong (16:5) so you have to favour Fed in most circumstances...................

In "most circumstances" ...... yes, agreed.

But that 09 Final was a classic example of how a lower-ranked - but extremely talented - player can hit a hot streak on the very day that the guy with vastly superior career history suddenly gets edgy during a long match.

Happened once. Could happen again. Just sayin ........ !!

If Federer fights Delpo on who can hit bigger (a la 2009), then Federer is in trouble. OTOH, if he mixes it up using slices and drops, it will make Federer's job much easier.

Thiem had much less variety to trouble DelPo and choked away.

and still, I am sure federer preferred thiem to delpo

lags72 wrote:

barrystar wrote:................................

We tend to remember the USO 2009 final, why wouldn't we, but Fed's record vs. del Boy is strong (16:5) so you have to favour Fed in most circumstances...................

In "most circumstances" ...... yes, agreed.

But that 09 Final was a classic example of how a lower-ranked - but extremely talented - player can hit a hot streak on the very day that the guy with vastly superior career history suddenly gets edgy during a long match.

Happened once. Could happen again. Just sayin ........ !!

Only difference being that Del Potro of today is a far different player from the 2009 version.

Carreno Busta up a break against Schwartzman, with the Argentinian serving at 3-5 to stay in the 1st set. Schwartzman is a tenacious player so I don't think he will crumble easily, but I still think it will be straight sets win for the Spaniard.

Carreno Busta now serving for 2nd set at 5-4.

Schwartz is fighting but keeps trailing. CB serving for a two sets to love lead.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Only difference being that Del Potro of today is a far different player from the 2009 version.

Do you mean not as good after years of injury problems?

His victories vs. Fed came in bursts:

Two in a row in 2009 - the USO and at the WTF when he was firing bullets and probably playing the best tennis of his life

Three in a row, being two at the end of 2012 - Basle final and WTF and Basle again in 2013 - Fed had a good 2012, so those wins were of some merit (although the WTF was the final RR match), and Fed was poor in 2013.

Otherwise it's all been Federer, albeit sometimes after a tussle. Del boy is always a dangerous opponent because of his skill and power, but provided Fed's back doesn't cause problems, I think you'd favour this encounter to go the way of most of their matches. However, even a victorious QF may be the death knell to Fed's chances because he very rarely takes Del boy in straights.

PCB through to SF in straight sets.

4 , 4 and 2 for CB, who could yet make the final, especially if Q and Anderson wear each other out.
   I see Fed is not only the night match for tomorrow but the SECOND match on in the evening. They could finish at 2 in the morning. Advantage Rafa.

barrystar wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Only difference being that Del Potro of today is a far different player from the 2009 version.

Do you mean not as good after years of injury problems?

Yes well it is patently obvious Juan has had to restructure his game after wrist injuries. It means he cannot hit with power on certain shots and has to play some sliced shots where in the past he'd have played a booming winner.

Sets lost after 4 rounds
Nadal 2
Rublev 1
Querrey 1
Anderson 1
Carreno Busta 0
Schwartzmann 2
Federer 4
Del Potro 2

Not to mention PCB wins the QF in straight sets! PCB for the title?

This guy seems to have come out of nowhere, although I just checked and reminded myself QF at French Open, SF at Indian Wells. Prior to this year not reached R4 of any slam or QF of any masters. Won 3 250s this year and last.

Aged 26 - a late peaker or just having a freak year.

Today's win giving him a serious chance of playing at the world tour finals in London. He goes into 8th place in the race today with a 10 point lead over Djokovic, but, more importantly, a 160 point lead over Sam Querrey. A Querrey win over Anderson would put Querrey slightly ahead. A potential Querrey-PCB semi would have a significant bearing on the race to London between the two of them! Although I wouldn't be surprised if Anderson wins that, actually.

http://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race

Murray is only a few hundred points behind though - he can certainly catch up if fit and not opting for surgery. (Not sure what the situation is there.)

CaledonianCraig wrote:

barrystar wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Only difference being that Del Potro of today is a far different player from the 2009 version.

Do you mean not as good after years of injury problems?

Yes well it is patently obvious Juan has had to restructure his game after wrist injuries. It means he cannot hit with power on certain shots and has to play some sliced shots where in the past he'd have played a booming winner.

I have a theory about this, although keep in mind it's pure speculation and I don't follow the tennis news in detail. So perhaps Del Potro will damage his wrist again if he consistently hits in a certain way for months. But, I just wonder - if he were in a slam final, or a 5th set of a major match, could be just ignore that for one match and just go full out - then take a month or two of rest after if necessary. Not sure how that works.

If he had Federer coming up in the final, he could just go full wrist for the whole final, and maybe win. But he can't do it against Roger than have to do it again against Rafa, then again in the final. As I said, pure speculation.

On what is proving a good tournament for the American WTA players, Sloane Stephens edges through a tight 3 setter, in 3rd set tie-break to beat Sevastova.

Coming up later Venus vs Kvitova which I hope lives up to expectations.

Zverev will be #4 in the rankings after the USO.  And that in spite of never having been to a slam QF, and only once to R4.  He has had some very good results outside of slams, but he had better start performing in slams too.

Williams vs Kvitova - very nice match. Kvitova played an error-prone TB to lose the match. Williams played some brilliant Tennis. Well played to both.

Anderson v Querrey - Ashe is less than half full based on the spider-cam shots. It will be stark contrast if there is a FedAl night match.

DF on BP by Anderson, and back on serve.

Some magical play by Querrey to level at one set all - aided somewhat by a couple of critical errors from Anderson. So little between these two ..... so much tension.

Amazed by number of empty seats for a night match featuring a home player (not as if there are too many of them regularly making the business end of Slams these days !). Rarely seems to happen at a Federer match - maybe his agent should be negotiating a cut on ticket sales.

Good win for Anderson - who had the narrow edge for most of the match. He should be favourite against PCB but will be interesting to see how he copes with a slam final on the line.

Expect Fedal to triumph relatively easily tonight. Going for both to win in straights.

CB may benefit from being much the fresher player after that long Q-Anderson match.

Born Slippy wrote:Expect Fedal to triumph relatively easily tonight. Going for both to win in straights.

Let's see ! Straights for Federer is a bold call considering that Delpo showed more than the odd glimpse of his '09 level - and a good deal of fighting spirit - in the impressive comeback vs Thiem. Can't see any serious trouble for Nadal.

Anderson deserved his win, but a huge disappointment for Querrey who could (should ?) so easily have taken it to a fifth. This was quality tennis throughout, with both guys coming up with a good few showreel shots. The scoreline might have the flavour of a serve-fest but anyone who actually watched the match will know it was far, far, more than that. Well played guys

Have to agree with Lags that even if Fed wins it won't be easy. Rarely does delpo get completely smashed in a match. And he can usually find something from somewhere to stay competitive even when he's in a series of long matches.
   We could have an all-American last four in the women, with at least one US finalist guaranteed.
   I'm expecting Rafa to win fairly comfortably today. In the women I'm going for Pliskova and Keys.

Think both Federer and Nadal will win in straight sets. Hopefully matches will be closer though. Don't see Del Potro's sliced backhand working too well against Federer as he goes for winners a lot earlier than most and will restrict DelPo's chances of setting up his huge forehand shots.

Henman Bill wrote:

Not to mention PCB wins the QF in straight sets! PCB for the title?    

This guy seems to have come out of nowhere, although I just checked and reminded myself QF at French Open, SF at Indian Wells. Prior to this year not reached R4 of any slam or QF of any masters. Won 3 250s this year and last.

Aged 26 - a late peaker or just having a freak year.

Yes - I don't like to strike a bum note, but my general skepticism (not cynicism) about sportsmen and women who emerge from years of obscurity to have freak years has gotten my antennae tweaking and my memory extending to the likes of Puerta in 2005.  Let's hope that there's nothing in it, but like other sporting bodies (IAAF in particular), the ITF has not done as much as it should have done to make skepticism of this sort unrealistic.

he is a good player in a good moment and with a good draw, thats all

I wonder if you would insinuate doping were he not spanish

its not a strage trend these days to start doing something noticeable at 26

Henman Bill wrote:Sets lost after 4 rounds
Nadal 2
Rublev 1
Querrey 1
Anderson 1
Carreno Busta 0
Schwartzmann 2
Federer 4
Del Potro 2

Not to mention PCB wins the QF in straight sets! PCB for the title?    

This guy seems to have come out of nowhere, although I just checked and reminded myself QF at French Open, SF at Indian Wells. Prior to this year not reached R4 of any slam or QF of any masters. Won 3 250s this year and last.

Aged 26 - a late peaker or just having a freak year.

Today's win giving him a serious chance of playing at the world tour finals in London. He goes into 8th place in the race today with a 10 point lead over Djokovic, but, more importantly, a 160 point lead over Sam Querrey. A Querrey win over Anderson would put Querrey slightly ahead. A potential Querrey-PCB semi would have a significant bearing on the race to London between the two of them! Although I wouldn't be surprised if Anderson wins that, actually.

http://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race

Murray is only a few hundred points behind though - he can certainly catch up if fit and not opting for surgery. (Not sure what the situation is there.)

PCB is a bit Ferrer-esque. Very good at beating those he should beat, but not so good at beating those better than him. The worst possible final is him v Rafa imo. It'll be a massive bend-over and 3,3 & 1 or similar. At least Anderson has the ability to take the racket out of his opponents hand.

The bottom half of this draw has been different and fun, but the possibility of a coronation of Rafa or Fed (neither of who have been playing well) is a real possibility for the final.

The WTF final 8 looks like being - Fed, Rafa, Zverev, Thiem, Cilic, Dimitrov, PCB & Querrey.

I do not give any nationality a free pass in relation to my skepticism - but some nationalities (e.g. Russia) or sports (weight-lifting, athletics, cycling) or chosen training locations (East Africa) merit additional scrutiny above and beyond standard skepticism.

When it comes to Spain the fact that the mist surrounding Operacion Puerto has not cleared hardly helps, but I don't draw conclusions about athletes because they are from Spain any more than I would about athletes from the UK (taking a wider look, the two countries have had similar state-supported drives to improve elite athletic performance by virtue of being Olympic Hosts in 1992 and 2012, and I am always wary of the perverse incentives that can result).

When watching our press witter on about UK 'Olympic heroes' or 'role models', one of my first questions is whether the press would be writing them up differently if they were from overseas - the question need only be asked to know what the answer is.

The unfortunate truth of all professional sport with a substantial element of endurance is that there is invariably an unknown but far from insignificant % of dopers.  Time and again it has been shown that there is no guarantee of cleanliness just because a sportsman or woman never tests positive and says all the right things about doping or comes from a certain country.

Some think it 'unfair' to clean athletes to wonder whether what we are looking at is what it seems - that's a decision for the individual and I do not agree.  To be clear, I think that all athletes have a right to defend their reputations against cynical or unfair allegations of cheating, but I don't think that athlete has a 'right' to be accepted as clean or to be entirely free from doubt just because they have not tested positive.  All athletes can have a hand in regulating their own sports if they so wish, pretty much any athlete you care to look at could do more to stamp it out and ostracize cheaters, but by and large they restrict themselves to standard condemnatory formulations which have the beneficial side-effect of avoiding upsetting the sponsorship apple cart.

Guest82 wrote:

The WTF final 8 looks like being - Fed, Rafa, Zverev, Thiem, Cilic, Dimitrov, PCB & Querrey.

Indeed it does, especially if PCB beats Anderson.

With Stan and Novak out, the 10th position should qualify.

A win for PCB should give him enough points right away, he would be at around 3000 and that should be enough.

However if Anderson beats PCB it is going to be PCB, Anderson and Querrey all within about 200 points of each other, with only two of them likely to make it. At most - since there are some good players below them like Kyrgios or Nishikori or Raonic although they are about 500-800 points back so would have to win one of the masters or put in consistently strong performances, although this is possible with so many players out and would be no surprise either if Federer and Nadal skip Asia or Paris so all to play for still.

So on reflection maybe you're overstating it slightly.

Didn't realise Anderson was so close. Hope he makes it. If he beats PCB then he's got a very good chance.

Amazing when you think - Djokovic, Murray, Stan, Raonic and Nishikori would all have expected to qualify at the start of the year.

roof on Ashe... not a good thing for rafa

Coco and Pliskova into a first set tiebreak.

Later: Coco takes the first set 7-6 (7-4)

Coco beats Pliskova 7-6, 6-3 to make the semis. This means Pliskova loses her number one ranking, with Muguruza taking over at the top next week.
  Now a very real chance that Americans will make up the four semifinalists. First time at the USO since 1981, apparently. Bit ironic that this will be/may be achieved without Serena being in the field.
   Next up is Rafa v Rublev. Anyone fancy Rublev's chances?

Not me !

There is a notable intensity about Rafa's mood at this USO.

I sense that nerves will get the better of young Rublev, and that this could be over fairly quickly, and in routine fashion.

Perfectly happy to be proven wrong.

sirfredperry wrote:...
   Next up is Rafa v Rublev. Anyone fancy Rublev's chances?

dont fancy them, but fear them

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2017-09-06/2017-09-05_ready_for_rafaroger_at_the_open_not_so_fast.html?promo=media_wall

Those of you who use the US Open website, which is many of you probably, will likely have already seen this. It's about the 5 times Roger-Rafa meetings at the US Open have been one round away.

H'Bill. Yeah, something always seems to crop up to prevent the pair meeting in NY. This time, of course, the "something" could be delpo.

I've thought about it a bit more and I'd say Federer in straights.

Del Potro has not been beating top players this year, Federer seems to be just about to move into top gear, and we don't even know how Del Potro is after a five setter following an illness.

Even at one set apiece, but something is amiss with Federer. None of the shot making is right, the returns are abysmal. He will be lucky to win this one.

DelPo, OTOH, is hammering the pelt off the ball. If he moves up another gear, Federer is done and dusted.

Don't agree with this. Federer has played well. The first set there was only one break point in it, a very makeable highish volley that Federer played too safe on and got passed. If he had put that away, it could have been a completely different match, who knows. And the third set against was only barely lost on a very tight tiebreak. More kudos to Del Potro for playing well if you ask me. Much better than in the last rouund.

Current stats show Federer at an impressive 51 winners to 33 UEs, and also has defended Del Potro's power well. At the time of writing Federer has won more points in the match - 110 to 107.

Just lost a few big ones.

Interesting he lost both the first and third set on a serve volley point. The tactic has worked well for him at times, but hsa also been costly on big points.

laverfan wrote:Even at one set apiece, but something is amiss with Federer. None of the shot making is right, the returns are abysmal. He will be lucky to win this one.

DelPo, OTOH, is hammering the pelt off the ball. If he moves up another gear, Federer is done and dusted.

Agreed. Roger's decision to go to Juan Martin's forehand at 6-4 in the third set tiebreak was head-scratching to say the least; especially considering how strong Delpo has been off of that wing the entire match.

Rafa would slaughter Roger based on the display I am seeing tonight