PGA Tour: European Golfers' "Tour" Prospects For 2013: Notes from the Ballwasher

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1).Tiger got his first win of the year under his belt, and now Phil has done the same. But, of course, they didn't have the cream of the 23-strong European golfing crop to deal with. Most of the lesser lights have been playing, though, and the rest will be here for Riviera and/or the MatchPlay so time to look at their prospects for the season ahead.
Remember, this is a short year - Ross Fisher for example, to name a Q-School grad who is not in any Majors, WGC's and most likely invitationals, only has a maximum of about 19 starts remaining before the FedEx Play-Off season begins, Karlsson in the same boat.
My idea of their prospects is categorised by FedEx rank: 1-30, 31-70, 71-100, 101-125, 126-200.
I am also offering no predictions for players with the most tenuous status (Casey, Cejka, Chopra, Christian, Johnson, Knox, Olazabal and Parnevik).

2).1-30:
~McIlroy: Sky's the limit, though quite prepared to believe his new clubs and ball will take some getting used to. Not as optimistic about Majors unless he can be firing on all cylinders by The Masters - don't fancy him for the rest of them.

~Donald: Another steady season, a low-key win somewhere like Hilton Head and must have a good shout at Merion. Starting his year at Riviera, a course which suits him.

~Rose: Good year in prospect for Justin and another who'll be in the Merion mix, possibly Oak Hill too.

~McDowell: A second breakthrough year for McDowell? Strange that he won't play the West Coast given his success there, but fancy him to win at least once and contend throughout the Majors.

~Harrington: Looked pretty solid in Phoenix, was driving it a mile, and I like his chances of following that up with strong finishes at Pebble Beach and Riviera. Another I fancy to play well at all the Majors - it'll be nice to see him back, and deservedly gets a very good press in America!

3).31-70:
~Pettersson: Best of the rest! Another strong season for Sweden's fattest (until Sjoholm turns up) but can't see him winning and will need strong play-off performances to reach the Tour Championship.

~Westwood: Hope I'm wrong, but Lee needs to absolutely stripe it to compensate for the short game deficiencies that seem to have crept into his head as well as his golfbag. Good to see him playing at Pebble, but not sure it's the type of place for him to shine.

~Hanson: Probably underrating him here, his performances in the US have improved steadily for the past few years and, at 35, should be in position to graduate from contender to winner. Not sure where though.

~Garcia: Looked a world-beater at Greensboro and pretty good at the Barclays before disappearing again. Could win anywhere except perhaps Augusta, but just as easily sulk his way through the season - would think his first two events (Riviera and MatchPlay) will be revealing as to form and fitness (how's that shoulder?).

~Poulter: Needs to win as he just doesn't get enough high finishes to score consistent gobs of FedEx points - best chances at MatchPlay and Hartford. Currently owns the longest streak (16) of consecutive cuts made, and look forward to a resumption of twittering warfare with Miller.

~Blixt: Missed two months of last year but showed how good he can be at Las Vegas and the Fry's. As good a short game as there is on Tour and will accumulate plenty of high finishes even if he doesn't win. Only in the PGA (where he'll struggle) and The Players (where he could flourish) among the big events.

4).71-100:
~Kaymer: Yet to be convinced that joining the PGA Tour is a good move for Martin. Obviously has a big game but has yet to score a Top Ten (no, really!) in a regular Tour event and I can see him struggling if he doesn't make an early impact - if he settles more quickly than I expect, could have a good August at Bridgestone and Oak Hill.

~Laird: Lost his way last year and hasn't scored a top ten since runnering up at The Players, only one Top 25 in that time. We know he has the game, but does he have the ambition? Not in any WGC's or Majors. Has no exemption safety net so needs to pull his socks up.

~Jacobson: Freddie seems to fiddle his way to some good finishes while looking worse doing it than almost anyone on Tour. No Majors or WGC's to look forward to and this is the final year of his winners' exemption, so needs to get his act together.

5).101-125:
~Stenson: Much better form over the past six months, but not on the PGA Tour. Will doubtless look to the WGC MatchPlay for a good result to get his year going - just doesn't seem to care for the stick-to-it-iveness needed for the grind of the Tour; if he follows his schedule of previous years will find he runs out of tournaments unless he enjoys a good FedEx Play-Off run. Currently #52 in the owgr, but not in any Majors yet.

~Colsaerts: His year could be anything. Can see a handful of good results and a dozen missed cuts.

~Lingmerth: Halfway towards keeping his card after that second-place finish at "Humana". The trick will be repeating it!

~Davis: In a terrible trot of form - only four made cuts since June, and one could see Davis falling foul of the short season unless he gets his act together soon. Another with new clubs. Will depend on his usual happy hunting grounds such as Hilton Head, Players, Colonial, Hartford.

6).125-200:
~Owen: Fine year in 2012 but now needs to repeat. Has made 15%+ of his career Tour earnings at Pebble Beach so this is a big week for him! By Tour standards a terrible putter but what a player you'd have if you could combine Owen's "ball-striking" with Davis's putter.

~Lynn: Very sceptical of David Lynn's chances of prospering in the US. Has earned the advantage of playing a couple of WGC's and three Majors, but a disappointing start to his year and surprised that neither Lynn nor Fisher are playing Pebble - appears to me the type that will do better on courses where par has value, unlike Phoenix for instance.

~Fisher: Similar to Lynn except he's not in any Majors, WGC's or, most likely, any invitationals. It's going to be a tough year and fewer events left than he might have expected. Ridiculous that he chose Phoenix over Pebble Beach.

~Karlsson: Saved his best form last year for Q-School, but Back To Go for Robbie and one needs convincing that he's overcome whatever ailed him. Hope I'm wrong but it's almost 18 months since his last top ten and will have the same trouble as Fish in getting into enough tournaments. Fingers crossed for this week though.

~Norlander: One cut made in his first three events, and I'd reckon his season will be all about making cuts and grinding out decent finishes.

7).72 holes of Phil being Phil in Phoenix, mostly sublime but a hint of the ridiculous to maintain interest.
Eleven Europeans had Thursday tee-times, only Harrington and Pettersson survived to play the weekend. There's a message there somewhere.

8).Looking forward to the action this week on the Monterey Peninsula, a gorgeous place to go with or without golf clubs. The boys will be competing on three of the four shortest courses the Tour sees during the year, but par will be at a greater premium than last week and I'd imagine that might suit the European contingent a little better. Harrington plays well here, as does Greg Owen (3 top tens), and Westwood makes his seasonal debut.

9).The field is of uneven quality, many top players including multiple winners Mickelson and Dustin Johnson, but just about every journeyman who ever held a Tour card will pad the field out. If Mickelson plays as he did last year here (remember his demolition of Woods?) or as well as he did last week (another demolition job), he'll win going away, but there's still room for others to gain a good result. Harrington tops my list (good e.w. value at 25/1), but Baddeley, Tim Clark, Watney, Mahan and Marino, as well as the obvious Dustin, all meet the horses for courses criteria.

10).Sorry to read last week's obits for the great sports writer, Frank Keating, but rewarded with some lovely tributes. After reading a couple of observations that he "hated the whole fiasco" of the 1996 Olympics which sapped his enthusiasm for the soul of sport, it's worth remembering who was the prime mover behind that commercial extravaganza: Ryo's mate Billy Payne of course!


PS: Best wishes and fingers crossed for Lindsey Vonn. A bit of a stretch for a golf column but somehow seems relevant.

Kevin Stadler has made over $6 million without ever winning a tournament. Love live PGA!

DJ was supposed to far well at Pebble. I suppose he couldn't swing well with Wayne G looking over his shoulder.

On a side note, Vijay is listed in the field for next week too.

Robo/Kwini, do you have a feel for Timmys view on Golf and the Olympics?
i suspect that the IOC/WADA will be looking at this very closely and wont be too chuffed if a slap on the wrist is all VJ gets.

hend0,
He says he's all for it.
Strongly doubt that IOC/Wada would do anything other than look askance at the Tour's drug policy, no blood testing etc.
Which is typical of many US Pro sports, some of which sometimes seem as much to be facilitators rather than disciplinarians.

robo's point about the Tour Appeals process is spot on - very likely that Vijay will be sanctioned eventually but process first, which is only right I suppose.

Some interesting snippets from the morning press:

~Listened to Paul Azinger describe (this week's Champions Tour winner on his 50-and-over debut) Rocco Mediate as among the top four or five ball-strikers he's played with. Right up there with Watson (Tom), Couples and Toms - doesn't always go where he's looking, said Zing, but he always hits it pure. Had never heard that assessment of Mediate before.
Our friend "Limey at the beach" used to say on 606 how disliked Mediate was among his neighbours; certainly wouldn't be the first all-smiling, mister nice guy to turn out to be a total tool.

~The USGA is doing Billy Payne a favour by discontinuing the amateur "Public Links" Championship effective 2014. Winners to have received a Masters invite for winning this event have included Tim Clark, Snedeker, Ryan Moore twice and Immelman.
That could pave the way for freeing up a Masters spot that could go to the winners of the old Fall Series events - as it currently stands, Blixt, Gainey and Beljan are unlikely to make the Augusta field.

Confirming Europeans in the stacked Northern Trust field at Riviera this week:

Blixt, Hanson, Jacobson, Parnevik, Pettersson
Colsaerts, Garcia
Davis, Donald, Lynn, Owen, Westwood
Harrington,
Laird, McDowell

Fisher is an alternate which means, if he doesn't make the field, he'll have had three weeks off before he tees it up, presumably, at Honda - then off to Puerto Rico for him.
Surprised Kaymer is absent - would have expected Riviera to suit him.

Others making their seasonal PGA Tour debut include Els, Scott Schwartzel and Oberholser.

Ross Fisher's lucky day as he scrapes in to the Northern Trust field, tho' even now it looks a little suspect as surely Patrick Reed should be in the field automatically via his Top Ten at Pebble.

Dream come true for NBC, the Nike Broadcasting Company, as McIlroy and Woods are both confirmed in the MatchPlay, Honda and Doral fields.

Can't disagree with this eminently sensible opinion piece from Doug Ferguson about the Vijay dilemma:

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/doug-ferguson/singh-should-take-leave-of-absence-from-pga-tour/

I guess this is the other side of the "golfers are independent contractors" coin that PGA Tour members are so happy to trot out.
When it suits them.

kwinigolfer wrote:Dream come true for NBC, the Nike Broadcasting Company, as McIlroy and Woods are both confirmed in the MatchPlay, Honda and Doral fields.

Although we are unlikely to see them shoot it out over the back nine on sunday as a golf fan I always look forward to the chance we will see the worlds top two go at it. I know you like to watch all levels of golf but do you not get a little more excited about the very best playing in an event?

Nice article by Ferguson but as you will see in this link as well I wonder if some in the press have failed to look into the actual PGA tour policy - which robo posted - regarding drug suspensions? As pointed out we might not know for a while what will happen to VJ. Although there may be an argument for te PGAT to be more open about what stages of a drug violation VJ is currently in.

'Morning Mac,
Of course I love to see the best players go head to head, whatever the sport.
Just can't stand the relentless, sycophantic hype that goes with it.
Having said that, 99% of the best stories are elsewhere, hidden in plain view, just no-one looking.

I think Fergy's comment is basically: "Veej, for the good of the game and, not incidentally your own image/integrity, sit down while due process takes its course, if appropriate cut a deal w/PGA Tour people that any suspension includes "time served". Because of his alleged previous, and the fact that most of the media can't stand him, he can't win playing through this.

robo was right, of course, and we all saw this play out as clear as daylight with the Sabbatini nonsense a couple of years ago. I thought Roary was pretty smart the way he played it - but no-one felt all his ranting and raving offered him a competitive advantage. This is completely different.

Kwini, Are Donald and westwood also playing the Honda?


Does anyone know what the procedure is in cycling(or any other sport) after a positive drug test(which is the same as an admission)? Does the cyclist get to keep cycling until all appeals have been heard?

I ask just to get an idea as to whether golfs process is a little odd or in fact the norm like most sports?

I'm sure LW is playing Honda; Donald used to, but not now both WGC's are just a fortnight apart. Followed by the Transitions (as was) which he won last year! and then a money-grab in Malaysia (I think). Then a break until Augusta.

An interesting article on Deer Antler (or I thought so anyway!). May not add much to the debate but contains some interesting background.

http://deadspin.com/5982504/ray-lewiss-deer-antler-spray-was-another-imaginary-drug-scandal

Geoffrey Green's "fire engines going to the wrong fire" again.

Pretty much echoes Azinger's comments , basically Vijay was wrong to use products on the banned substances list - but it's the wrong list.

He was adamant that this product gives no more of an advantage than hundreds of non-prescription drugs and practices, and cited his own use of Advil when cancer was growing in his shoulder, yet Advil allowed him to swing the club, which he couldn't do otherwise. Not to mention the fact the Tour can't test for the deer-antler spray.