Indian Wells Day 9 (MOTD: Murray vs Del Potro)

First topic message reminder :

It's time for the first MS1000 of the year! Red and I will be updating the opening post each day with previews of matches that catch the eye, as well as completed results and draws once the tournament moves along a little. If anyone wants to contribute, please do shoot one of us a PM!

96 players are in action with 32 seeds getting a bye into the second round, meaning that as Cogen highlighted, this is the first event since Wimbledon 2011 (at least) where all of the top players in the world are in action. A few of the narratives are the possibility that Federer could be overhauled by Murray at #2, Djokovic looking to continue his unbeaten start to the season, Nadal's triumphant return to hard courts, and numerous other players in reasonable nick - can they challenge for the title, or at least create a few upsets?

Prize: A cool $1 million ($5.4 million purse), and the invaluable 1000 ranking points.
Defending champion is Roger Federer, who defeated John Isner in the 2012 final.
Updated draw on the ATP site.

Preview from Red:


Andy Murray is on the hunt for his maiden Indian Wells title. He has reached the quarter final here, for the first time since he reached the final in 2009, but has a tough task to complete if he is to get his hands on the trophy. He is up against Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarters today, and if he gets through that he can potentially face Djokovic and Nadal in the next two rounds. In his Round 4 match Murray was not at his best, and looked irritated at the end of his tight 2 set win against Berlocq. Berlocq complained that Murray was taking too long between points, Murray complained that Berlocq was grunting too loudly, and well... I think Berlocq is not on Andy's Christmas card list anymore. With the world number 2 ranking potentially on the line if he reaches the final, Murray fans will be hoping a dismissal of Del Potro will help lighten his mood.

Juan Martin Del Potro has never won a Masters 100 title before. Will this be the week he breaks his duck? He has been on good form so far this tournament, an improvement to his relatively mediocre start to 2013. However he has not yet been tested, and with all respects to Bjorn Phau, a fixture against Andy Murray will be a real step up. In Dubai Del Potro tested Djokovic in both sets, but mentally let himself down in the key moments. Will the same happen here against the Scot? The Argentinian's record against Murray isn't great, and he will have to raise his game if he wants to have a chance of winning.

Key Tactics: Murray has a convincing 5-1 lead over Del Potro in the H2H, with Juan's only win coming on clay in 2009. Murray won the last two matches these two played (also both in 2009), and he will fancy himself to continue this run of wins and extend it today. For Del Potro to win, he must be extremely aggressive, in longer rallies Murray will coast. The higher bounce of the surface should suit Del Potro, as Murray's tactic of the low slice which has worked so well against him will be negated. Thus the onus is on Del Potro to force the play, and big serving and aggressive hitting will be his only chance of winning.

Predictions: I think Murray has too much variety and nous for Del Potro, I see the 2012 USO champion winning in straight sets: 6-3 6-4.

Paire, Anderson, Nieminen - good to see them overcome big names.

Very see Ferrer lose and that with arguments with Chair Umpire. Hope Javier calms him down.

kevin!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XooISvoZ_rs

Red wrote:LS, on which grounds would you say Verdasco is more talented than Ferrer? Apart from the fact that he puts more emphasis on attack.

If you attack, and you can do so with precision, then that's fair enough- that's talent. But the guy has poor timing on hie forehand; he mis-hits so many! Apart from a purple patch in 2009 frankly he has never shown he can hit with any sort of accuracy and precision for a prolonged period of time, I just don't see how one can argue he's that talented.
In terms of mental talent Ferrer is leagues above him.

In every ground as ever we shall agree to disagree.

LuvSports! wrote:

Red wrote:LS, on which grounds would you say Verdasco is more talented than Ferrer? Apart from the fact that he puts more emphasis on attack.

If you attack, and you can do so with precision, then that's fair enough- that's talent. But the guy has poor timing on hie forehand; he mis-hits so many! Apart from a purple patch in 2009 frankly he has never shown he can hit with any sort of accuracy and precision for a prolonged period of time, I just don't see how one can argue he's that talented.
In terms of mental talent Ferrer is leagues above him.

In every ground as ever we shall agree to disagree.

First, you may need to agree on the definition of talent.

Nice FH winner from Isner to clinch the set.

LuvSports! wrote:

Red wrote:LS, on which grounds would you say Verdasco is more talented than Ferrer? Apart from the fact that he puts more emphasis on attack.

If you attack, and you can do so with precision, then that's fair enough- that's talent. But the guy has poor timing on hie forehand; he mis-hits so many! Apart from a purple patch in 2009 frankly he has never shown he can hit with any sort of accuracy and precision for a prolonged period of time, I just don't see how one can argue he's that talented.
In terms of mental talent Ferrer is leagues above him.

In every ground as ever we shall agree to disagree.

I have to agree with LS Verdasco is a wasted talent.. he has an awesome forehand a great returner of serve
cast your mind back to the semi-final of the AO against Rafa... he was brilliant.
However ... if you could put him and Ferrer in a melting pot you would come up with a Spanish player to beat all others... Verdasco is now reaping the rewards of a misspent youth... his work ethic is lamentable if he had spent more time on court and less running around Madrid in his Ferrari bird chasing he would have been an incredible talent.
Ferrer is as we have all stated a work horse.. of course he has talent without a doubt.. but its sad when you resalise what Verdasco could have been and in that regard Ferrer is a mental giant

H-N, maybe Verdasco has had (decided to have?) more fun - can't begrudge him that.

Where did I say I begrudge him JM:..It was an observation not a judgement

Both being millionaires a few times over. Neither owning a slam title. I think if I had to choose a way to spend my youth as a tennis player (knowing I wouldnt win a slam by age 30), I would totally rather chase Madridista women in a yellow Ferrari than train and get locked in cupboards

Fair enough, if 'misspent' and 'lamentable' aren't judgements.

Are you enjoying yourself JM.. Not that I owe you further explanation

My comments are about him as a tennis player not as a human being.
Isnt that what this forum is about... making such comments about why players do not use their god given talent.
Similar things were said about Saffin... and Nalbandian. and various others.
Would you care to add any further criticism or can we bring this particular discussion to a close.

Good points HN, but one thing that causes pause for thought is the whole "mental strength" part.

Imo ferrer's game is not very risky at all and has a high margin for error.
He also relies a lot on his fitness which for me enhances the illusion of mental strength.
For me mental strength is not crumbling under pressure (at times against the big 4 ferrer has done this imo) and going for your shots more and increasing the risk level, ala djokovic when he is mp's down.
It's strange for me at times as when djoko is seemingly beaten and has mp's against him, he becomes more aggressive, attacking and stands closer to the baseline.
But he only does this when he is about to lose. Rafa I think does it well when defending break points, he becomes a lot more aggressive and takes control of the point early on.

Is it a coincidence that the mentally strongest players are also the fittest and have the best defences? I think if they didn't have that fitness their mental strength would drop, apart from feds. I know that seems biased but i just think his constant ability to execute his riskier game is a great sign of mental strength. I see him predominantly as an attacker, whereas i see murray, nadal and djoko defenders.

Yes I agree with that Rafa seems to up his mental strength when defending a break point against him.. it amazes me how many times he denies his opponent a break of serve. Ferrer is I will admit is very predictable you can often foresee what he is going to do three or four shots before he does it. I suppose its his tenancity ... he is a grinder and because he has what seemingly appears to be a bottomless pit of energy..that wins him matches. Verdasco on the other hand could well have been as good as Rafa in my opinion but he mentally breaks down under pressure also. I agree about Nadal Djoko and Murray as defenders.. but Djoko is very quick to turn defence into attack when he feels that his game is getting away from him. He and Rafa both have the ability to change tactics if things are working for them. I wish Rafa would attack more at times but I dont think he is at all comfortable coming into the net too often.

Nicely played, Hewitt now has a BP.

Isner's frustrations let him down with too many errors. Hewitt has the break. Can he consolidate?

Rafa is actually an accomplished volleyer. Better by most accounts than Djokovic. But the difference is Djokovic is a real gambler, when up against the wall he will go all-in while Rafa, probably due to the safety-first approach instilled in him by Toni, will try work his way into a dominant position.

The Murray Bros are doing rather well in the doubles at the moment. Long may it continue!!

Lefties have the advantage of the natural serve out wide in the ad court - to the right-hander's BH. Helps them to save break points.

Ah. Why did I say that?

The Special Juan wrote:The Murray Bros are doing rather well in the doubles at the moment. Long may it continue!!

How are The Marx Bros doing?

djokovic is not a very good volleyer at all, so saying rafa is better by most accounts is not saying much imo.

Great win for hewitt though, big loss of points for isner who could be down by 10 places or so into the mid 20's.

Well done. Talented Aussie through to the third round.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:The Murray Bros are doing rather well in the doubles at the moment. Long may it continue!!

How are The Marx Bros doing?

I think they're on later.

If Simon doesn't win this final set against Lorenzi, we'll have Anderson/Niemenin/Paire/Lorenzi as one of our quarter finalists. I don't think anyone predicted that.

I just realized that if Rafa wins IW, he will be back to #4.

ryan86 wrote:If Simon doesn't win this final set against Lorenzi, we'll have Anderson/Niemenin/Paire/Lorenzi as one of our quarter finalists. I don't think anyone predicted that.

LOL, that would be interesting.

I hate using "if" and "but" but if ( ) Querrey doesn't win a match or two then the Americans will have no Top 20 players for the first time ever.

It isnt saying much. Except Djokovic isnt exactly awful. I cant remember to many instances of him recently fluffing a sitter.


Regardless, great win for Hewitt. Truly a gladiator. If his body matched his heart he would have been an all time great.
Still Beating a top 25 player after what, two hip surgeries? and a few niggles. Almost like Super Ferrer...

Murray Bros drop second set

Nalbandian serving for second set against JJ.

Nalbandian takes it -1 set all

6 match points to the Murrays.

Putting my money on Nalbandian to help further my school of thought that it is better to be a sub 6' tennis player than a 6'7+ bohemoth (Should Nalby lose, I will imply that he too has a new hip and thus the result means nothing)

Super Murrayo Bros!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Good riddance, I really don't like that Lindstedt.

summerblues wrote:

ryan86 wrote:If Simon doesn't win this final set against Lorenzi, we'll have Anderson/Niemenin/Paire/Lorenzi as one of our quarter finalists. I don't think anyone predicted that.

LOL, that would be interesting.

And Simon, as he has done each set so far, goes 3-0 down.

Phew. Murrays take it 10-4 in the TB.

When was the last time Murray played non-Davis Cup Mens Doubles with anyone other than his brother?

Simon's down a double break.

Meanwhile, I've noticed Lopez and Raonic are a doubles pair. That's a pretty good pairing as they have an unbreakable guy and a guy who's pretty good at the net, plus Lopez's serve isn't bad at all and Raonic has decent hands.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:

Red wrote:LS, on which grounds would you say Verdasco is more talented than Ferrer? Apart from the fact that he puts more emphasis on attack.

If you attack, and you can do so with precision, then that's fair enough- that's talent. But the guy has poor timing on hie forehand; he mis-hits so many! Apart from a purple patch in 2009 frankly he has never shown he can hit with any sort of accuracy and precision for a prolonged period of time, I just don't see how one can argue he's that talented.
In terms of mental talent Ferrer is leagues above him.

In every ground as ever we shall agree to disagree.

I have to agree with LS Verdasco is a wasted talent.. he has an awesome forehand a great returner of serve
cast your mind back to the semi-final of the AO against Rafa... he was brilliant.

HN, from what I have seen from Verdasco... AO2009 was a purple patch.

His forehand breaks down so easily, his timing in matches can be terrible. His accuracy and precision since 2009... has been lacking quite frankly.

ryan86 wrote:When was the last time Murray played non-Davis Cup Mens Doubles with anyone other than his brother?

Djokovic a couple of years ago? Didn't he also team up with Hewitt at Queens once?

LuvSports! wrote:
For me mental strength is not crumbling under pressure (at times against the big 4 ferrer has done this imo) and going for your shots more and increasing the risk level, ala djokovic when he is mp's down.

I simply fundamentally disagree with this LS.
A couple of years ago when I was playing tennis tournaments and it was a big point in the match, I used to go for broke and try to blitz a winner with an extremely high risk shot... and I lost many (most) of these points; and frankly I think this is what is mentally weak.

Nowadays, instead of suddenly trying to go for incredibly risky 'nothing to lose' shots in key moments, I try to focus my mind, and tell myself to build the point up and use the tactics which have worked well earlier on in the match. This strategy and new found mental strength has worked much better in the key moments.

I know that you will disagree with me on this, but it will be interesting to see what your rebuttal is

Red;
AO and 2009 in general was a purple patch for Verdasco. But doesnt that indicate a greater talent that for whatever reason wasnt tapped into?

I personally think Verdasco was a top 10 level talent. But even in his purple patch (2009), I dont think he won a match vs the big 4 outside of the Murray match. So lets not suddenly make his talent out to be any more than it was. His peak ranking is #7 & I think thats where he would have ended, albeit for a longer time line, if he had swapped the yellow Ferrari for Ferrer's cupboard.

kingraf wrote:Red;
AO and 2009 in general was a purple patch for Verdasco. But doesnt that indicate a greater talent that for whatever reason wasnt tapped into?

No, I see it as a one-off.
As LF said a lot depends on how you perceive talent.

From what I have seen from Verdasco overall, is that for a 'talented' attacking player, his timing on his forehand is poor, it breaks down far too often, and he has no real precision or accuracy in his shots for the majority of the time. Compare that to the likes of Federer and Davydenko... they have far more precision.

Everybody has/d a shot which is can be broken. Djokovic's server was at times a horror show. Nadal's backhand couldn't generate any offence during that losing streak vs Djokovic. Federer for all his accuracy had a back hand which went very array in the face of extreme pressure. Murrays forehand needed some tightening.

Verdasco is one of few players on tour who hit with straight elbow
Cilic
Nadal
Federer
Dimitrov
Verdasco

While this brings the easy power which can have your forehand compared to 'liquid vapour' (Federer) or a 'punch to the gut (Nadal), it also means you have less control than other players. Verdasco never took the time to work on this when he was younger. Control is a lot harder to learn than power. Case in point - Nadal 2010 USO serve (powered up the week before) vs how long it took Djoko to fix his serving issues

Lorenzi choking against Simon.

ryan86 wrote:When was the last time Murray played non-Davis Cup Mens Doubles with anyone other than his brother?

I think it was January last year in Brisbane with Baghdatis and prior to that Paris/Bercy in Dec 2011 with Hutchins, then Djokovic at Miami 2011 before that.

I'd be interested to see him play with Marray in Davis Cup sometime - I think they'd be an interesting combination. Sadly, I don't think it will ever happen though.

Can anyone actually confirm if Verdasco really had a little yellow ferrari? I have heard the "chasing birds in his yellow Ferrari" story many times, so I use it as an analogy, but is it actually true?

It's not just his forehand KR, even the timing on his backhand is frankly abysmal at times. Comparing the BH of Fedal, serve of Djokovic, FH of Murray etc. is.... simply out of place in my opinion. They were slight weaknesses, that were only exposed at the highest level (with the exception of Djokovic's serve which was to be fair very poor before he rescued it in 2010); but the groundstrokes of Verdasco are, if you watch him extensively as I do, lacking precision and accuracy (in my eyes these two features would have a big place in my definition of talent) as well as poor timing on his shots.
You say he 'never took the time to work on this when he was younger'... but I don't think there's really any proof that he had 'it' in the first place. Apart from AO 2009 he's been quite unconvincing at the highest level, and I think that one-off tournament is a big reason as to why he is overrated as a player.

And the old man, who - when he was younger - obviously worked on the timing and accuracy of his forehand more than Verdasco, looks good advancing to the third round.

Simon wins