1st Round Mock Draft

Before free agency kicks off the v2journal NFL team have put together this mock draft of the first round to look at what could happen on April 25th: http://v2journal.com/19/post/2013/03/first-round-mock-draft.html

Initials by the explanation let you know who made each pick, CL is niner, RC is NYJ and JM is me. Let us know what you make of the picks.

Looked at #1, laughed and moved on. 3rd best OT at #1.

GSC wrote:Looked at #1, laughed and moved on. 3rd best OT at #1.

Wasn't my pick but if niner thinks he's going turn into an All-Pro LT then it's a good #1 pick, though I would have expected Joeckel/Miller to be the first OT off the board.

What did you make of the other picks?

If that number one pick comes good, I'll eat my hat.

I think Star is going to drop with his heart problems, regardless of his excuse.

Don't mind Milliner with jordan gone.

As I say, Johnson is the 3rd best OT prospect, if you want athletic potential, Fisher offers that and better prospects.

Don't think Werners a 3-4 OLB in the NFL.

Its not awful, but the first pick leaves a taste of I'm being controversial for attention, which annoys me.

And as an Eagles fan. Luke Joeckel is the most Andy Reid pick ever.

GSC wrote:Don't think Werners a 3-4 OLB in the NFL.

His best position is a 4-3 End, no doubt. But he can definitely play standing up. He's fantastic value at #17.

I quite like the Lane Johnson #1 overall pick, not because I think it will happen, but it's different and shows some thought. Its not out of the question that down the line Johnson could end up being the best tackle from the draft.

I'm still struggling with Mingo TBH. He was 240lbs at the Combine, though I guess Horton has used undersized LBs. Still I see a similar type of player to Bruce Irvin - in fact both had 1.55 10 yard splits at the combine, though Irvin had better 3cone and shuttle times at 245lbs. Would you take Bruce Irvin top 10?

Richardson was "only" 294lbs at the combine and according to him he played at around 285lbs for the Tigers. That makes me a little worried - can he be a 3 down DL? He had some problems vs. the run at 285lbs.

I expect the stick for the Johnson pick but don't really care. It is easy to look at nfl and draft websites and say that Johnson is the third best tackle because that's what the writing says, anyone can eat that up, but look at the actual tape and tell me if there is much difference between him, Fisher or Joeckel. Plus I'm a big fan of Pat Kirwan after reading his books and I see him as a top analyst and he feels the same. J

If someone can tell me why Johnson is a bad pick and why Fisher and Joeckel are so much better then I may see the opinion as credible but I know quite a few draft analysts myself and have spoken to them about Johnson and I like what I hear and see. Joeckel isn't exactly on Kalil's level last year and Fisher has struggled a bit in games I've seen. Simply based on what I've seen, not on online rankings. I like how agressive he is compared to the other tackles and think if you are asking who is most talented is, its him. Wouldn't say its 'laughable', I doubt people saying that have even watched any Central Michigan games so don't really know what their comparisons are based onam picking between these tackles is like picking between Trent Williams or Russell Okung or Julio Jones or A.J Green although wr's, can't lose

Colan (niner) wrote:I expect the stick for the Johnson pick but don't really care. It is easy to look at nfl and draft websites and say that Johnson is the third best tackle because that's what the writing says, anyone can eat that up, but look at the actual tape and tell me if there is much difference between him, Fisher or Joeckel. Plus I'm a big fan of Pat Kirwan after reading his books and I see him as a top analyst and he feels the same. J

If someone can tell me why Johnson is a bad pick and why Fisher and Joeckel are so much better then I may see the opinion as credible but I know quite a few draft analysts myself and have spoken to them about Johnson and I like what I hear and see. Joeckel isn't exactly on Kalil's level last year and Fisher has struggled a bit in games I've seen. Simply based on what I've seen, not on online rankings. I like how agressive he is compared to the other tackles and think if you are asking who is most talented is, its him. Wouldn't say its 'laughable', I doubt people saying that have even watched any Central Michigan games so don't really know what their comparisons are based onam picking between these tackles is like picking between Trent Williams or Russell Okung or Julio Jones or A.J Green although wr's, can't lose

The main thing is that it's not clear cut IMO, I don't think there's a consensus in the scouting community on who is ranked 1-2-3. I do think for the most part the top spot debate is between Joeckel and Fisher but Johnson is starting to enter into the conversation. The fact that Johnson is on the "rise" doesn't surprise me, I had him high on my rankings months before all the buzz started (same with Fisher) and you dont need the Combine to tell you this guy has excellent athletic ability (28 reps of 225 probably helped him in some people's eyes).

I agree. From what I've seen I'm not as high on Fisher as others, don't think he deals with speed quite as well as the other two and I think the level of competiition plays on my mind too. That is the thing I find funny, I also think all three are very close in terms of talent so don't get why people act like Johnson is that far down the scale, just because follow the consensus really. Of course Johnson is unlikely to go first overall but if the 49ers lost Staley and had to get an LT in this draft, I'd hope they took Johnson over the other two if possible. Don't know what you think of Mayock but just saw, that like Kirwan, he loves Johnson:

'"If you look at Lane Johnson's tape Week One at Oklahoma versus the end of the year, it's very different. This is a guy where the sky is the limit. There might be some teams that very quietly think he could become better than those other tackles, (Eric) Fisher and (Luke) Joeckel, with time because of that athletic ability. He's going to end up somewhere maybe in the 10-15 range in this draft and he has the ability to be an All-Pro left tackle."

And in terms of his combine as you mentioned, never knew this:

'"His 40-yard dash time was faster than Anquan Boldin," NFL Network Analyst Mike Mayock said of Johnson. "His vertical at 34 inches was the same as A.J. Green – think about this, this is an offensive tackle at 300-plus pounds. He ran faster than Anquan Boldin, he jumped the same as A.J. Green and his broad jump at nine feet, 10 inches was the same as Steven Ridley. Think about those three things for a 300-pound offensive tackle and put that in perspective of what he can be.'

Colan (niner) wrote: Don't know what you think of Mayock but just saw, that like Kirwan, he loves Johnson:

'"If you look at Lane Johnson's tape Week One at Oklahoma versus the end of the year, it's very different. This is a guy where the sky is the limit. There might be some teams that very quietly think he could become better than those other tackles, (Eric) Fisher and (Luke) Joeckel, with time because of that athletic ability. He's going to end up somewhere maybe in the 10-15 range in this draft and he has the ability to be an All-Pro left tackle."

And in terms of his combine as you mentioned, never knew this:

'"His 40-yard dash time was faster than Anquan Boldin," NFL Network Analyst Mike Mayock said of Johnson. "His vertical at 34 inches was the same as A.J. Green – think about this, this is an offensive tackle at 300-plus pounds. He ran faster than Anquan Boldin, he jumped the same as A.J. Green and his broad jump at nine feet, 10 inches was the same as Steven Ridley. Think about those three things for a 300-pound offensive tackle and put that in perspective of what he can be.'

The fact that there was progression and improvement through the season is very important, though I already liked him by mid-season (because of his movement skills) never mind his post-season work. With a player like Johnson the physical tools are there - 6'6, 35 1/4 inch arm length, athleticism (40 time, 1.61 10 yard split, explosive 34 inch vertical, etc), 28 reps of 225 I mentioned might change the opinion of some that he's all finesse (lacks strength) - the question is can he be coached - his progression through the season suggests he can, technique improvement, he might be 10lbs too light - can he add lbs and strength to his game? Development is the big ? for him though and that's why I think individual workouts with teams, particularly OL coaches, will be big for him pre-draft. I just don't know if I could rank Johnson ahead of a safer, more experienced and pro-ready prospect like Luke Joeckel.

On Johnson's progression throughout the year: That's why Ziggy Ansah and Cordarelle Patterson are projected to be taken top 10/15. Potential to grow into an even more dominant player. Lower floor but a higher ceiling.

Paul Emery who was on the podcast last week game me a nice response when I asked him if Johnson is good enough to go number one and if he is better than Fisher and close to Joeckel:
'I think in terms of tape I would say Joeckel has the edge. Fisher has some really scary tape - certainly recommend the Toledo game if you can find it anywhere. I watched Bedlam yesterday and didn't think Johnson played that well. He's better than given credit for in terms of his anchor and run blocking (as you say nasty!) - but lost technique when the edge was threatened - came out of his kick-slide and bent at the waist - looked stressed against edge speed and that shouldn't be the case - has to trust his technique more. Hand use is better than one might think though - can strike quickly and win.

In terms of Senior Bowl - I thought both Fisher and Johnson were lights out. In the pit you get shown up if you aren't spot on and both were.

Combine - Fisher and Johnson graded out 1 and 2 in the OT group on my scale (will finish my Diner articles on the Combine tonight with my overall number) - so upside is there for both as athletes.

Joeckel not great with his 40 - but outside of that had a nice workout. Cone was faster than Fisher's and a lot of teams look at that above 40 (or 10 yard split).

Overall I'd have Fisher 3rd - indeed I might even have him 4th (behind Fluker who might be #1 on some boards because Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson are all under 310 lbs, which is too light) and I might even think about Terron Armstead above him - such is my concern with his Central Michigan tape - just doesn't match his Senior Bowl practice performance (he didn't play much in the game, but if you look at the first quarter he's in, but his arms are flapping around big time - they weren't in practice...).

I think I'm going to have Joeckel first - although I've not yet decided for sure. I am strongly considering Johnson though, I am currently watching more of him with a different view. He came into the year ranked as a late rounder, so when looking back at my notes from in season it's all slanted to him being better than a late or even mid rounder. So I'm watching him now and saying "is he top 5?" and "is he better than Joeckel?". I think there are enough concerns there with Johnson for Joeckel to be #1 - I don't think Joeckel is perfect, but I think he might get the nod. If you say Johnson I'd not have a big complaint about it - Fisher I'd have something to say though!!

Colan (niner) wrote:
'I think in terms of tape I would say Joeckel has the edge. Fisher has some really scary tape - certainly recommend the Toledo game if you can find it anywhere. I watched Bedlam yesterday and didn't think Johnson played that well. He's better than given credit for in terms of his anchor and run blocking (as you say nasty!) - but lost technique when the edge was threatened - came out of his kick-slide and bent at the waist - looked stressed against edge speed and that shouldn't be the case - has to trust his technique more. Hand use is better than one might think though - can strike quickly and win.

In terms of Senior Bowl - I thought both Fisher and Johnson were lights out. In the pit you get shown up if you aren't spot on and both were.

Combine - Fisher and Johnson graded out 1 and 2 in the OT group on my scale (will finish my Diner articles on the Combine tonight with my overall number) - so upside is there for both as athletes.

Joeckel not great with his 40 - but outside of that had a nice workout. Cone was faster than Fisher's and a lot of teams look at that above 40 (or 10 yard split).

Overall I'd have Fisher 3rd - indeed I might even have him 4th (behind Fluker who might be #1 on some boards because Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson are all under 310 lbs, which is too light) and I might even think about Terron Armstead above him - such is my concern with his Central Michigan tape - just doesn't match his Senior Bowl practice performance (he didn't play much in the game, but if you look at the first quarter he's in, but his arms are flapping around big time - they weren't in practice...).

I think I'm going to have Joeckel first - although I've not yet decided for sure. I am strongly considering Johnson though, I am currently watching more of him with a different view. He came into the year ranked as a late rounder, so when looking back at my notes from in season it's all slanted to him being better than a late or even mid rounder. So I'm watching him now and saying "is he top 5?" and "is he better than Joeckel?". I think there are enough concerns there with Johnson for Joeckel to be #1 - I don't think Joeckel is perfect, but I think he might get the nod. If you say Johnson I'd not have a big complaint about it - Fisher I'd have something to say though!!

Pretty similar comments to what I wrote above so it seems we're on roughly the same page. Joeckel has the edge in my book as well, Johnson has better physical tools than both Joeckel and Fisher, I can see he's down on Fisher but he had a solid Combine workout and his performance at the Senior Bowl is hard to ignore (vs. good competition all looking to impress). I have Joeckel at #1 but, like Paul, if someone wants to make an argument for Johnson being the #1 OT I wouldn't have a problem with it. The draft community seems genuinely split on these guys and if you look at various rankings Bucky Brooks now has Fisher as #1 OT, many have Joeckel and some are talking about Johnson.