Indian Wells Match Thread (Nadal wins!)

by Silver Fri 15 Mar 2013, 10:46 pm

First topic message reminder :

Rafael Nadal defeats Juan Martin Del Potro to win Indian Wells 2013! 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Nadal's route to the title:

R1: Bye
R2: Ryan Harrison (7-6, 6-2)
R3: Leonardo Mayer (Walkover)
R4: Ernests Gulbis (4-6, 6-4, 7-5)
QF: Roger Federer (6-4, 6-2)
SF: Tomas Berdych (6-4, 7-5)
F: Juan Martin Del Potro (4-6, 6-3, 6-4)

Updated draw on the ATP site.

by LuvSports! Sun 17 Mar 2013, 11:04 am

I think DP will tire after losing a close 1st set, rafa will run away with the 2nd.

7-5 6-2 for me.

by lydian Sun 17 Mar 2013, 11:06 am

I'll just repost as my post was at bottom of page 7 a min before LS posted too.
Agree LS that a lot depends on Delpo's stamina today.

Make no mistake though he's hitting the ball huge at the moment and Rafa has trouble with big flat hitters who don't choke big points/moments like Berdych. Delpo could blow him off court before stamina becomes an issue...and I don't think Nadal played that well yesterday, he needs to up his form for the final...he gave Berdych a lot of 'looks' that a better player would have capitalised on yesterday.
That said, Rafa always brings that X Factor which confounds normal thinking...on paper you think X and Y will happen but Nadal's game is so unorthodox and at times inventive/unexpected that he seems to throw players off their stride when you least expect it. I'm going for Rafa in 3 but I wouldn't be surprised to see Delpo win either if he's not been on a drip all night.

by User 774433 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 11:40 am

Spot on Lydian.

by Jeremy_Kyle Sun 17 Mar 2013, 12:02 pm

Well done to Del Potro, what a fab. couple of matches!!!!

by sirfredperry Sun 17 Mar 2013, 1:03 pm

Let's hope del Po is not too whacked out after that terrific match against Djoko. However well JMDP plays it's still a great chance for Rafa in that he is not having to get past a top four guy in the final.
The current top three may hope for a Rafa win with the 1,000 points bringing him closer to regaining number four so they don't have to meet him before the semis in future.
Fed, for one, would love to go into RG at three with Rafa at four then they can't meet before the final. But I'm probably getting too far ahead of myself here.

by The Special Juan Sun 17 Mar 2013, 1:07 pm

I think (although I may be very wrong) that if Nadal wins today he's back in the top 4.

by lydian Sun 17 Mar 2013, 3:51 pm

That's right, he'd be 115 pts ahead of Ferrer.
He would already have nearly 2000 pts from the come back - as many as the 16-17th ranked player gets in a year.

by Haddie-nuff Sun 17 Mar 2013, 4:18 pm

I never saw the end of the match until this afternoon (Sky broke down here in sunny Spain last night hrrrrmph !!) What a gigantic effort JMDP made to win that match.. he gave it everything and more. He did look absolutely shattered though ... is there enough gas left in the tank ? Hope for his sake that he has because I dont think Rafa is in the mood to take prisoners Wink

by invisiblecoolers Sun 17 Mar 2013, 5:02 pm

lydian wrote:A lot depends on Delpo's stamina today.
Make no mistake he's hitting the ball huge at the moment and Rafa has trouble with big flat hitters who don't choke big points/moments like Berdych. Delpo could blow him off court before stamina becomes an issue...and I don't think Nadal played that well yesterday, he needs to up his form for the final...he gave Berdych a lot of 'looks' that a better player would have capitalised on yesterday.
That said, Rafa always brings that X Factor which confounds normal thinking...on paper you think X and Y will happen but Nadal's game is so unorthodox and at times inventive/unexpected that he seems to throw players off their stride when you least expect it. I'm going for Rafa in 3 but I wouldn't be surprised to see Delpo win either if he's not been on a drip all night.

Well put forward thumbsup

, yes Del Po can blow Rafa of the court but Rafa always playes better when the conditions and the situations are tough, I really don't count Rafa based on last match, he certainly won't play like that but still Del Po has in him to blow Rafa off the court.

by invisiblecoolers Sun 17 Mar 2013, 5:06 pm

LuvSports! wrote:I think DP will tire after losing a close 1st set, rafa will run away with the 2nd.

7-5 6-2 for me.

I am betting on Rafa to win the 1st and lose the match, for which the current odds at Bet365 is 8 times, just to prove the theory wrong that Del Po won't good if he runs out of stamina, in my view when the situation gets tough Del Po starts to believe more in himself. thumbsup

by Haddie-nuff Sun 17 Mar 2013, 5:09 pm

mmmmmmm just as well we dont all think the same then IC.. Rafa is really hungry to win this and frankly when he is in this I WILL NOT LOSE mode I put my money on him...

by ALPanorak Sun 17 Mar 2013, 5:19 pm

I think Nadal will edge todays final. As ever he looks hungry for success and with Delpo's inevitable fitness coming into play, I believe Nadal will be able to outlast him provided his forehand is on point as it has been recently.

Going forward, the manner of Rafa's comeback thus far has led me to believe he stands a significant chance of being no.1 come end of the year. I am not convinced that Novak is the better grass court player and if Nadal can dominate the clay series as usual he should be in good stead to mount serious challenges in the last two slams which he was unable to do in 2012.

by The Special Juan Sun 17 Mar 2013, 5:35 pm

Cheers for the confirmation lydian

I think today will be a great scope for where DelPo stands these days. Who says he's going to run out of energy and tank? Granted he's a big unit, but he's a professional athlete. And, let's not forget, he's smacked Nadal off the court once before (USO 2009), so I am more convinced this match is on DelPo's racquet than Nadal's.

by Haddie-nuff Sun 17 Mar 2013, 5:45 pm

The thing that has to be remembered about Nadal.. he is the ultimate competitor .. his love to compete outweighs even his love of tennis such is his mindset.
It isn´t about winning for Rafa.. its about not losing. No matter what he does, golf, poker, backgammon.. he is the opponent everyone dreads.. he will do all in his power not to lose. I honestly believe he is blinded by all else when he gets on court... his ability to save match points, break points, and set points is unquestionably awesome. Having said that Im not saying that Delpo does not have the wherewithal to beat Rafa.. but he is going to have to be at the top of his game IMHO. But I also believe that this is, for Rafa, (with all being well with the dreaded knee) the beginning of a great comeback. So come what may.. it should be a great match ...

by hawkeye Sun 17 Mar 2013, 6:00 pm

I wonder if Nadal has noticed (like socal1976) that Del Potro doesn't often hit his backhand dtl? I will be watching for this.

by Haddie-nuff Sun 17 Mar 2013, 6:14 pm

HE I cant imagine much has escaped Rafa´s notice .. also the difference for Delpo is he is playing a leftie.

by User 774433 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 7:40 pm

Silver, check your inbox Whistle

by lydian Sun 17 Mar 2013, 7:44 pm

Plus Nadal handles slice probably about the best in the game...Delpo's slice won't hurt him as much it might Novak...partly due to Nadal having a less extreme grip than Novak.

by Henman Bill Sun 17 Mar 2013, 8:21 pm

Someone needs to find a technology that will mute the screeching and grunting but keep the rest of the sounds. And why is the annoying screecher/grunter always winning in women's tennis?

by Henman Bill Sun 17 Mar 2013, 8:32 pm

Sharapova goes a set and 5-2 up, so that match will be over shortly, and we may see ATP players on court close to 9pm (UK), depending on how long the trophy presentation goes on for.

by Danny_1982 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 8:40 pm

I suspect the Delpo backhand will go up the line quite a bit today to avoid the forehand. This will be a fascinating match if they both play well. Delpo won't be bothered by the spinning high balls that Rafa kills Fed with.

Question is does Delpo have much energy left after 2 gruelling wins? I suspect not. That's why I'm going for Rafa in 2 sets. First one really tight, second one easier.

If Delpo wins what an achievement. Beating 3 of the big 4 in consecutive rounds. Has that ever been done before?

by socal1976 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 8:52 pm

Yes the portly super talented one nalby beat fed, djoko, and nadal in Paris indoors in 07 to win it. Apparently his body responded well to those delicious baguettes stuffed with ham, cheese, and butter

by Silver Sun 17 Mar 2013, 8:55 pm

Spot on, Danny. Although interestingly if Del Potro refuses to play the DTL backhand, Nadal can't hit the inside-out forehand into open court very easily, which is a favoured tactic. But then he leaves himself open to Nadal's DTL forehand. Tough one for JMDP, both options involve him hitting a running forehand eventually if he's on the back foot in the rally...assuming he doesn't find another way to change it up earlier, which I'm sure he will.

Looking forward to this one Smile

by User 774433 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:17 pm

Nadal to serve first Smile

by User 774433 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:19 pm

This was my analsys, the MOTD should be up shortly.
Apologies Silver, I had techinical issues, so am a bit late Wink

Del Potro Profile from Red:

Juan Martin Del Potro is on fire. At the start of the week barely anyone fancied him get past Murray in the quarters, but here we are in the final and Del Potro has a chance to win a maiden Masters 1000 title. The start of the year wasn't great for the Argentinian, he lost to Chardy early on in the Australian Open, and despite winning Rotterdamn without facing anyone in the top 30, lost to Simon a week later in Marseille. It was only Dubai when Del Potro did start to play some impressive tennis, and he was stopped there by Novak Djokovic in the semis. However this week Juan has raised his game to a whole other level. He played superb tennis to come back from a set down to knock out Andy Murray in the quarters, and took revenge on Djokovic with a stunning 3 set win in the semis. Is the 2009 Del Potro back? Well, we can't be sure yet, but whatever happens today in the final against Nadal this week has shown some real promising signs that he is nearing his best.

Match Analysis from Red:

Key Tactics and Predictions: Del Potro has only one option if he is to win this match: attack, and attack relentlessly. Who can forget the sensational performance he served up against Nadal in the US Open of 2009. If there was a blueprint of how to play Nadal, surely that would be it. Nadal may have been suffering from an abdominal injury that day, but frankly even if he was serving well he would have struggled against Del Potro on that form. In terms of tactics for Nadal, I feel the Spaniard must try and move his opponent around and vary his shots. If Del Potro gets into a rhythm, it will be difficult to stop him. Nadal must serve well, meek serves will be ruthlessly punished from the 6ft7 Argentinian. Overall I feel that this going to be a close and exciting final, but with Nadal being the more experienced player I give him the slight edge here.
Nadal to win 6-4 2-6 7-5

by The Special Juan Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:21 pm

I thought he was 6'6. Shocking, it ruined the whole article for me.

(Good article Red, I'm joking of course).

by User 774433 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:22 pm

The Special Juan wrote:I thought he was 6'6. Shocking, it ruined the whole article for me.

(Good article Red, I'm joking of course).

by The Special Juan Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:26 pm

I don't like to over analyse but I think DelPo's serve is crucial in this match. If he serves like he did against Murray then all the pressure is on Nadal. The best ever returner on a hard court could only carve out two break points against him and seeing as Nadal's return of serve isn't as good as Murray's or Novak's then it may be very difficult for him if DelPo gets into a rhythm on serve (as I say that it's break point picard

).

I can't watch the match though Sad

by LuvSports! Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:31 pm

rafa up and running with a break

by ALPanorak Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:31 pm

Break for Nadal 2-0. Confident start from Nadal so far although he's yet to fully find his range on the forehand despite hitting quite a few winners off that side already (worrying). Delpo needs first serves.

by Silver Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:33 pm

Cheers Red, OP updated thumbsup

A break already? Wow.

by summerblues Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:34 pm

The Special Juan wrote:The best ever returner on a hard court

By what measure? That sounds overhyped.

Speaking of returns, I am always puzzled why Nadal sometimes runs around his BH on a return, and then still returns a relatively similar ball off his FH.

by User 774433 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:35 pm

So, both me and Silver predict 3 set wins for Nadal chin

He's serving at 2-0 40-30 here Rafa.

by User 774433 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:36 pm

Decent start.

by The Special Juan Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:36 pm

summerblues wrote:
The Special Juan wrote:The best ever returner on a hard court
By what measure? That sounds overhyped.

Speaking of returns, I am always puzzled why Nadal sometimes runs around his BH on a return, and then still returns a relatively similar ball off his FH.

I don't believe it either but apparently Sir Andrew statistically is the best returner on a hard court ever based on points won against serve or something. The Sky commentators say it a lot so it must be true!!

by Henman Bill Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:37 pm

"pre-emptive jinxing",

What other type of jinxing is there?

by Henman Bill Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:38 pm

Good previews all round. Though I don't agree that Nadal had a tough draw. Avoiding Djokovic and Murray was great news for him.

by lydian Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:39 pm

As bizarre as it sounds with the scoreline Nadal's FH is nowhere near fully functioning yet! Yikes.

by summerblues Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:40 pm

The Special Juan wrote:I don't believe it either but apparently Sir Andrew statistically is the best returner on a hard court ever based on points won against serve or something. The Sky commentators say it a lot so it must be true!!

A-ha. By living in the US I must be missing quality assessment of Andy's skills. He is a good returner no doubt, but best ever (even though on HC only Wink

) sounds a tiny bit suspect.

by Henman Bill Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:40 pm

I see Del Potro is wearing the same boxer shorts as yesterday. I guess he probably lost his luggage changing planes in LAX. Still, you would have thought he could afford to buy a few pairs of shorts. There are malls in Indian Wells.

This is going to cost him for me.

by The Special Juan Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:41 pm

Bagel alert Sad

Is DelPo playing badly or is Nadal playing well?

by User 774433 Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:41 pm

FFS should have broken there.

by lydian Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:42 pm

Yep, Nadal's FH cost him the break there.

by Henman Bill Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:46 pm

nice to see a bit of side to side and variety and not just peperring each other's backhand

by lydian Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:47 pm

This is surprisingly error strewn from Rafa despite the score.

by summerblues Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:49 pm

What a return. I was surprised Rafa did not serve down the T, as Delpo was obviously getting ready to unleash his FH.

by ALPanorak Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:50 pm

Delpo's forehand is warming up and Rafa's is breaking down...

by Henman Bill Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:50 pm

not a great call on the bagel alert.

Landing those two balls right on the baseline threw Rafa there. I think Rafa is playing quite well but was certainly confounded by those 2 balls on the baseline. I don't expect the errors will continue, those points were a bit freakish. Rafa is better at the bread and butter stuff that will make up most of the match.

by summerblues Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:52 pm

They just showed time taken between points (presumably average?) and they are both over 25s.

by Henman Bill Sun 17 Mar 2013, 9:53 pm

from 0-3 to 3-3. well done

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