Nadal out of Indian Wells/Miami

Nadal's injury is looking to be much more severe and he has confirmed that he will not participate in the two Masters 1000 events at Indian Wells and Miami. When you consider that Nadal has retired from the last three tournaments that he has played dating back to Paris last year, it would seem to be quite a worrying phase of his career. Perhaps he si just being cautious and not wanting to risk playing on hard courts and he will clearly want to be back in full swing for the clay court season.

For the rankings, it means that Federer will almost certainly retain the number one position until the grass court season. Federer is defending 2000 points at Indian Wells and Miami, but with the gap between the top due to grow to 845 points on Monday and with Nadal dropping a further 690 points in those tournaments, Federer will have to get a very manageable 465 points to retain the top spot going into the clay court season. It's unlikely that Federer will play on the clay, but even with that, Nadal will have to put in a perfect clay court swing to catch him in the rankings.

More importantly though, what does this mean for the tour. Nadal is showing fragility again and with Djokovic and Murray still struggling to get back from injury, we would be accepting a very new era if Federer wasn't still winding the clock back. Wawrinka is also taking more time to recuperate.

Will the new generation take their chances...?

Disappointing news. And, perhaps, worrying too.

I can’t help wonder just how much longer Rafa really wants to put himself through this sort of stuff : the discomfort, the frustration, the injuries, the recuperation, the come-backs. Very often the comebacks bring significant success - as significant as a return to World No. 1 ; but equally often, it can all prove transitory and very short-lived ; and invariably it’s then more of the same again.

I have no doubt that for Rafa, it’s really important to perform on court and compete at the highest level whilst he still can. But how important is the longer term, the bigger picture  .... ?

As he continues to push his ageing, injury-prone, body, just what are the implications and potential risks for life beyond the rigours of the main tour .... ? Is there a serious likelihood of him ultimately becoming tne sort of retired athlete who finds that some everyday activities in later life - playing with kids, enjoying simple, less demanding physical pursuits - are actually troublesome, or maybe even painful ?

And of course maybe I’m entirely wrong to raise such a perspective.

That's something you hear former tennis pros saying a lot. Who knows really? But it's got to be a thought that all these players come to in their thirties.

lags, six years ago during the AO12 Rafa himself was alluding to the same issues you are mentioning:

I have had experiences that I never could have dreamed of but to finish your career with pain in all parts of your body is not positive. If he [Federer] finishes his career as a rose, it’s because he has an extraordinary body, but neither Murray nor Djokovic nor I will end up roses. ... At what age are we going to stop in tennis?  Twenty-eight, 29 or 30? Then you have left a lot of life ahead and it’s also important that you are physically fit. Now I fear that then I won’t be able to play soccer or ski with my friends.

In spite of that though, I think he will continue for as long as he thinks he has a chance to win big titles.  I expect both Fed and Rafa are still fighting over who will win more slam titles and, while Fed would appear to be the favorite to win that race now, I doubt Rafa has given up.

After all, if Fed had not done as well the last 13 months as he has, they might both have been at 17 slams now.  And Rafa is 5 years younger than Fed.

The latest I heard was that it was an unknown condition, something causing a bursa to form in his left thigh muscle when playing at an intensity and duration needed for match fitness.

If Nadal's condition doesn't improve and he has to withdraw from Roland Garros, it could be an incentive for Federer to play.  Except if Nadal pulls out it will probably be a last minute decision.

Doubt whether Rog would play RG even if Rafa has to be absent. Think his focus will be on another Wimbledon title and staying fit for the US swing.
   Rafa has never failed to show up - and do well - at the clay-court season so he's clearly erring on the side of caution. Great chance for some of the others to step up now that three of the big four are out of action.

Stan the Man has also pulled out of IW and Miami as he struggles to return to peak fitness after his lay off. He has 1,200 points to defend at RG and is no doubt trying to be completely OK for the clay-court season.
   So there will be some big names missing from the two big sunshine events. Bet the organisers are glad Fed is still around.

It's gonna look more and more stark how different the tour is in the coming month. It will be interesting to watch. There's a reaction that you get looking at the casualty list that you begin to think it looks like a cakewalk for Roger. But in reality, you just cannot expect that. I think he will win one of them but not two

Lionel Hutz wrote:Nadal's injury is looking to be much more severe and he has confirmed that he will not participate in the two Masters 1000 events at Indian Wells and Miami. When you consider that Nadal has retired from the last three tournaments that he has played dating back to Paris last year, it would seem to be quite a worrying phase of his career. Perhaps he si just being cautious and not wanting to risk playing on hard courts and he will clearly want to be back in full swing for the clay court season.

For the rankings, it means that Federer will almost certainly retain the number one position until the grass court season. Federer is defending 2000 points at Indian Wells and Miami, but with the gap between the top due to grow to 845 points on Monday and with Nadal dropping a further 690 points in those tournaments, Federer will have to get a very manageable 465 points to retain the top spot going into the clay court season. It's unlikely that Federer will play on the clay, but even with that, Nadal will have to put in a perfect clay court swing to catch him in the rankings.

More importantly though, what does this mean for the tour. Nadal is showing fragility again and win Djokovic and Murray still struggling to get back from injury, we would be accepting a very new era if Federer wasn't still winding the clock back. Wawrinka is also taking more time to recuperate.

Will the new generation take their chances...?

The gap on Monday will be 600 won't it? 9460 vs 10060
Meaning Fed will need 710 points from IW/Miami to retain No 1.

I agree with 710 also. Sso perhaps the 465 is wrong and we'd need to see that calculation to compare.
He needs SF at Indian Wells to retain no 1, but that would leave him needing F at Miami.
If he gets F at Indian Wells, he needs QF at Miami.
If he wins IW, he should be OK into the clay season and could even skip Miami.

Sad news for Rafa, but I half expected it. It's a sad situation at the moment. Federer looking favourite for year end no 1, but won't be as much of an achivement if all his major rivals are injured or unfit.

By the way, I think Federer will play the French Open this year at the very least in the clay season.

Lionel Hutz wrote:It's gonna look more and more stark how different the tour is in the coming month. It will be interesting to watch. There's a reaction that you get looking at the casualty list that you begin to think it looks like a cakewalk for Roger. But in reality, you just cannot expect that. I think he will win one of them but not two

Bit in bold: indeed as stark as this tennis forum and this 606v2 / v2 forum in general. Everything has its day, its period in the sun. But then the world turns, the sky grows dark, as the night approaches. All that remains are the best of the best, quality not quantity, but my dear posters I have seen the writing on the wall and it reads - beware beware the Ides of March or something, I couldn't quite make it out, what with the rising damp and all.

For what it is worth, and maybe it is not worth very much, Del Potro wins Acapulco as does Murray & Soares (doubles).

No name Bertie wrote:For what it is worth, and maybe it is not worth very much, Del Potro wins Acapulco as does Murray & Soares (doubles).

500 events aren’t always significant but this particular title win for Delpo was - for several reasons.

It takes him to Number 8 in the rankings  - an outstanding rise when one considers just how challenging  
the long, gradual recovery has been ;  and he had to beat three top tenners along the way in a tough field. It’s his biggest trophy for two years (as an added sweetener he pockets around $350K for his troubles .....)

Well done Delpo I say

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/del-potro-anderson-acapulco-2018-final

lags72 wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:For what it is worth, and maybe it is not worth very much, Del Potro wins Acapulco as does Murray & Soares (doubles).

500 events aren’t always significant but this particular title win for Delpo was - for several reasons.

It takes him to Number 8 in the rankings  - an outstanding rise when one considers just how challenging  
the long, gradual recovery has been ;  and he had to beat three top tenners along the way in a tough field. It’s his biggest trophy for two years (as an added sweetener he pockets around $350K for his troubles .....)

Well done Delpo I say  

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/del-potro-anderson-acapulco-2018-final

I certainly agree. It has been a long, rocky road back but the big Argentine will feel a lot better with life now. A decent title won and a rise well into the top ten when a year or two ago his career looked finished. Well done Juan.

Well done to Del Porto. Really well deserved. Could he be the one who puts in some serious challenge to Federer in I.W. and Miami ?

Delpo is one of the few players who really worries Fed. Good that he's up to eight in the rankings and can now get some better draws in the big events.

Just having a look on wikipedia and it looks like a very solid run from DP at Acapulco beating both Zverevs, Thiem, Anderson and Ferrer. Only Ferrer took a set off him.

Good comments regarding Del Potro's victory. It gives me hope that he might be able to challenge for the slams or at least the US Open.