Will the All Blacks bottle it?

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Will New Zealand blow the world cup at home?

They say it every 4 years , no it’s not that they’ve discovered a new planet which turns out to be gas. It’s that its RWC year and that the All Blacks will destroy all before them. Or will they?

I’m sure everybody remembers 2007 Graham Henry had seemingly lost the plot picking a full back at 13 and a kicking based full back in a team who just wanted to run the ball. But as most people would agree Wayne Barnes also played a role in this but more to the point will it all happen again?

New Zealand have so much depth in there team that it would be wrong to say a injury to someone like Dan Carter would completely ruin there chances because lets face it Luke Mcallister , Colin Slade , Stephen Donald and Nick Evans aren’t bad back up options.

One thing which may prove a stumbling block is the 12 jersey does Henry give to the Freak of nature that is Sonny Bill Williams who is tearing up S15 rugby or does he go with Ma’a Nonu who has had a disastrous season to date.

Another selection headache is out wide on the wing does he go with the old faithful Joe Rockocko or does he try temptation and name Sean Maitland or Zac Guildford and the best winger in the AI Horse Gear and Cory Jane to still name will there be room?

One problem which has pestered Dan Carter throughout his career is the drop goal which sometimes is the only way to take points from the opposition half and being predominately the only kicker in the AB back line will he land the drop goal to win them the web Ellis trophy?

A lot of questions will be asked of the All Blacks but will Graham Henry and his troops be able to answer them?

Yet again they will enter the World Cup as the best team by some distance but I do feel that an injuries to Carter and McCaw would have a very big impact - every other position has great strength in depth but it's pretty hard to replace those two, especially at fly half where they can't seem to find a decent back up to Carter. Mcallister, although improving in recent times doesn't look the same player he was in 2007 ( and is playing 12 again at the moment), Donald doesn't look true International class, not seen enough of Slade but he's hardly setting the S15 on fire week in week out, and the best back up Evans continues to play in England.

McCaw maybe wouldn't be as big a loss as Carter in a playing sense but it would still cause them some serious issues, not just because of what he does at open side (better than anyone by some distance) but he is without doubt is this teams leader and it would be hard job for someone to step into that roll and have the same impact. It would have almost been like Johnson getting injured for England during the World Cup in 2003. Sure, Dally, Back, Greenwood or whoever could have stepped up to be the captain but it would still have been Johnsons team and the loss would have been huge and could have really changed the outcome.

With regards to the SBW & Nonu debate, I’ve watched more of the S15 this year than ever before and my choice would be to go with SBW to start with Nonu on the bench as an impact sub, with Smith at OC (although challenged by the guy who SBW plays with at Canterbury, can’t remember his name but he looks another top level prospect). For me, as SBW continues to improve on a weekly basis his ability to offload and create space for others will make him a certain pick in the starting 15. I hate to admit it but for once I think he is a player who may actually live up to at least most of the hype. Also to be able to bring Nonu on for the last 20 as players are starting to slow down, either in the center or on the wing will create massive problems for other teams, especially if the AB’s are enjoying go forward ball.

All in all I think that the All Blacks will probably win WC2011, with maybe South Africa being the only other team I think can mount a decent challenge. Based on SA's player options I think they could potentially be close to the AB's in terms of ability but they need to replace their head coach, Coco the Clown, before they realise anything like their true potential.

I don't think "bottle it" is the correct phrase here.

Firstly if the All Blacks go in with a full squad and no injuries the fact is they will run most teams off the field. It is however possible that teams on the day will play a tactic of forward pressure and assuring at least 50% possession with having their forwards in the face of the All Blacks. Thus ensuring they dominate break downs with quick ball.

The other issue has been the "illegal offside play" at the rucks from players such as Francks, who continually stand in an offside position thereby blocking players on the fringes of the rucks.

The other side of the coin is if the All Blacks suffer key injuries they will be more vulnerable as is the case with any other team.
So, although the All BLacks are favorites in any match up, it is possible to beat them, France showed that two years ago, Australia did in 2010 after losing 10 straight matches against them and SA did so in 2009.

So this "choking" or "bottling" is a load of nonsense. Sometimes things just conspire against a team and things such as fifty fifty decisions, bounce of the ball etc go against you.