HC Quarter Finals - Discuss

Clermont Auvergne v Montpellier
Saracens v Ulster Rugby
Harlequins v Munster Rugby
Toulon v Leicester Tigers

With our blues out, sadly for the first time in years I can look at the HC quarter-finals through the eyes of a neutral. The bookies have it that Clermont, Saracens, Quins and Toulon will make it an Anglo-French semi-final line up of Clermont v Quins in Montpelier and Sarries v Toulon in Twickers. Bookies usually call it right but I don't see it as that clear cut.

OK, Clermont should stuff Montpelier - especially after they put 60pts plus on Agen last week with Fofana getting 3 tries, Nalaga another 2 tries plus 4 more tires. Only Agen, but still Clermont seem to be in awesome form and this QF is probably the easiest to call. Montpelier a decent team but that's about it.

Saracens on a very good run although they were hardly stellar in beating an almost-relegated London Welsh at the weekend. Ulster were on a poor run but were excellent in beating Leinster at the RDS. Pienaar taking the kicks released Jackson as a playmaker, great defence - Leinster were barely in with a sniff of a try - and Ulster probably should have had more than the two tries they scored. Maybe I'm looking at this through green-tinted glasses but I sense a bookie upset here and this is the game where my pitiful few euros will be going on Ulster. At least, this is the one game where there might be an upset.

Munster are in dire straits and the game in Glasgow wass probably the worst performance I've ever seen from a Munster team. No passion, no confidence, feck all skills. Hard to see beyond Quins but then when Munster are being written off they have a tendency to make all of us who wrote them off look like eejits. Still, hard to look beyond Quins.

Don't see that many AP games but Leicester looked very good against Northampton at the weekend. Toulon scoring like there's no tomorrow but they did lose to Bayonne (!!!!) a couple of weeks ago. Love to see Tigers stuff this moneybags outfit - would mean there would be at least one Irishman in the SF's (Niall Morris) but all logic points to Toulon.

Overall, love to see Ulster and Leicester get through but if they don't then like to see Clermont go all the way.

brennomac wrote:
Saracens on a very good run although they were hardly stellar in beating an almost-relegated London Welsh at the weekend.

Saracens were playing Wasps this weekend.

Home wins seem the most obvious result. Ulster and Munster will be very hopefull of winning in London but it will not be easy. Clermont and Toulon (sadly) should win easily.

As an Ulster fan I was giving us little hope given the run we were on before the Leinster game. But the difference in personnel we have now compared to our poor run is massive. I think it will be very tight and despite Saracens being bookies favourites there isn't that much in it. I think its the most likely chance of an upset as well.

If we can go to Dublin and beat Leinster for the first time in 14 years then we can go to Twickenham and beat Saracens.

Munster are poor but it should be noted that Harlequins are on a poor run at the minute as well especially their last result. Munster also have O'Connell back.

Toulon should win but for me their HC performances this season haven't been on a par with their Top14 performances and they had a very easy group, they haven't really been tested in Europe yet.

Clermont to completely outclass Montpellier for me.

Clermont are the charmed side in that everyone thinks they'll do it and most people seem to want them to.... Hows that for great marketing!

Well, it looks like they are the only 'cert' to me - they'll go and lose now to prove me wrong.

Ulster looked like a side back on track against Leinster, but then Leinster too looked like a side who didn't get anywhere in HEC this season. So it'd be a difficult one to read too closely.

If Ulster can notch up the intensity again by a good few degrees, then they'll be in the game towards the end and the dice of luck or a moment's invention might tell us who wins in the end. I'd give Ulster a good chance but it'll have to be fire for the full 80...no patches of sucking up the pressure like they did against Leinster.

I think Munster would need a miracle...and even then, that would be to just stop a mauling. Munster have the ability (still) to shock both ways though. To shock us at just how bad professional players can be and then shock us by the force of the hatchet job they do on a wandering favourite side who encounters them. I don't think they'll get a miracle this season. I think they'll either just lose or lose badly unfortunately. I think next year is their real beginning under Penney.

Leicester/Toulon....................? Leicester, another old dogged dog who doesn't know how to take a beating. Or that might be that it's taken so much beatings that it doesn't know how to feel pain anymore!!! Whichever it is... I think Leicester will fight harder than Toulon and it might be enough.

Did you watch our last match, Dodger? The one before it was very poor but our last match, despite being a loss, and a massively disappointing and frustrating one at that, I would have thought would worry rather than encourage Munster!

Maybe so Chequered - I didn't see the game against Gloucester but was working on the basis that two defeats in the Premiership isn't ideal preparation for a HC quarter final.

If we can match sarries up front I would back us. Easier said than done, particularly with their bench and a reason I might be tempted to go for a 6-2 split again.

Sarries will rightly be favourites and ulster will rightly have no fear. A cracker. I also think Leicester and munster might spring surprises

I wish I had half the confidence in Leicester that is being demonstrated by you folks.

I was feeling slightly more confident than you LT especially after the saints game but then just looked at the head to heads between the starting teams. It's not pretty viewing.

Ed Slater v Bakkies Botha
Anthony Allen v Matt Giteau

for example now both Allen and Slater have been very good for us but when thinking how far they will have to up their games to match these two iconic players. Some of our boys will have to play the games of their lives if we are going to have a chance, and we are down in Toulon. The size of the challenge is gigantic.

I just think there is something about this game that a team can be more than the sum of their parts. Toulon don't have that although their individual parts a bloody good! Leicester have it in spades.

Toulon are still favourites but I wouldn't rule Leicester out. If we were to beat sarries i would rather face Toulon than Leicester

Leicester should not focus on some of the names Toulon have but more in keeping the game and the defense tight. Toulon are used to bully through their forwards and outpower most opponents but dont do so well against heavy packs (see their only home defeat of the season was against Racing) so Leicester with all their grunt and experience have a decent chance. Only problem for them is that the atmosphere in stade mayol is quite something !

Saints was the perfect warm up for Tigers, just keep hitting them up front, out ruck (oh dear) out scrum and out mail them and they'll be lost.

The Quins game is too hard to call, both teams come in to it on the back of losses and poor form but both can be potentially great in their day. Quins have the home advantage, Munster have that Munster mentality and a heck of a lot of experience.

Ok, this is some of what I posted on another thread (the pub), plus some added bits.

The Stoop is a bog of a pitch atm, so Munster may find a territorial game may work. What am I saying; that's how they normally win games. Quins have lost their last three league games, and that pitch ain't going to help their normal offloading game.

Sarries are just a feckin machine at the moment. They have the best squad in the Prem, and will be a hard nut to crack for Ulster. Sarries do not panic, as we (Wasps) found out on Sat. For me they are the only team who can take on the big two French teams in terms of squad strength. Ulster could well surprise Sarries at the break down though.

Tiggers will need a lot of dog to beat Toulon, and I can't see them doing it. Toulon have a mighty pack on paper, but they are getting on a bit. Best tactic for Tigers is to try and play wide, retain possession and shift the point of attack, and force Toulon to make loads of tackles. Tough ask though.

Clermont will not lose to Montpellier. Quins or Munster have to play them in the semi.

Sarries or Ulster v Clermont final.

If Toulon make it

3 home wins + ...

Ulllllllllsssttttttteeeeerrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!

Clermont are the red hot favourites and deservedly so.

Artful Dodger Quins might be on a poor run but their performance against Gloucester was a much more heartening performance. Key players like Evans,Care and Easter looked a lot more comfortable.

With Quins having home advantage as well I think they will bounce back.

I feel like the Ulster fans are underestimating Saracens.That pleases me. I would throw up a very important statistic but I don't want to jinx proceedings.

The one area where Ulster could potentially cause problems in my opinion is the scrum. The ref Poite is a stickler in the scrum area.

Bear in mind that Brown,Barritt,Stevens,Hargreaves and Brits were all missing vs Wasps because they were resting.


Of the sides left in the competition who I think can beat Toulon away Leicester is certainly one of them. They have been in decent form recently.

They have a really strong 23 and I think could cause Toulon quite a few problems.

It's quite funny that most of the England guys now back at their clubs have made a good impact.

Very hard to say how Munster will do. We could win or we could get our backsides whipped.

We will more than likely make about 4 significant changes from the team that lost badly against Glasgow (Ryan, O'Mahony, Zebo, Murray). Thats a lot better than Duncan Williams, Johne Murphy, Paddy Butler and Donnacha O'Callaghan. We may even see Keatley come in at either 10 or 15 especially if we want to play territory.

Munster seem to be able to compartmentalise their League and European campaigns. In January we saw them lose in humiliating circumstances against the Cardiff Blues (at home) before going on to get some key wins and claim best runners up spot.

Harlequins must start as favourites but I can certainly still see us winning. The interception pass has become a trend now. As Beshocked will tell you an intercept try was the difference between Munster and Saracens in the pool stages. We conceded three interceptions against Glasgow. Sadly our interceptions aren't down to bad luck. Its down to having our flyhalf standing deep and throwing wide, slow passes.

But our maul has been really been an excellent weapon this year. If we can win the territory battle and use O'Connell and Ryan (with O'Callaghan to come off the bench) and O'Mahony we have excellent lineout options.

I think Tigers have enough in them to beat Toulon. Clermont and Ulster to be the other semi finalists.

4 home wins for me, with Quins my tip as most likely to lose.

Clermont - Montpelier: Clermont should win this 19 times in 20.
Toulon - Tigers: Long time since Tigers won in France, would expect Toulon to win this 18/20
Saracens - Ulster: Saracens were beaten up in last seasons 1/4 finals by Clermont. In Europe at least they have added an attacking edge to their defensive prowess. Bang in form against Ulster who started the season on fire - but have struggled ever since Saints won in Belfast. Good win over Leinster - does that show they have regained form? For me Saracens win 15/20
Quins - Munster: Intermittent decent performances by Munster combined with really poor ones. Quins struggled with Sarries physicality but played well away to Gloucester. Quins to win 12/20.

red stag no I don't know what you mean.

It was Munster who got the intercept try vs Saracens. Saracens' try came from a grubber kick.

An Irish man thinks Munster and Ulster to win? What a surprise!

Being realistic it should be all home wins but I think Leicester are the most capable of causing the upset.

Why do you think Ulster will win?

So it seems that if you think ulster have a chance you are underestimating Saracens?

Any ulster fan I have seen has said sarries are favourites. (apart from rodders but he is nuts)

Beshocked

Your right the old noodle ain't what it used to be. I checked now and see that Downey scored an intercept. I had got it into me head that we conceded one. Must have been engrained into my memory from the Glasgow debacle at the weekend.

Realistically I don't think Munster will win. That is a pure Heart > Head debate. Looking at it objectively Harlequins are the clear favourite but why be objective. I'm a biased little Munster fan

As for Ulster, the honest answer is that I that its a tight match. Home advantage doesn't come into play as I think it will be a fairly even split in the crowd. Possible in Ulsters favour. I know I will be there supporting Ulster (Munster playing in Richmond next day). Ulster are doing well in the league and Europe. They have got some key away wins (in Thomond Park last quarter finals, in Leinster last week, in Franklins Gardens this year and in Castres this season) which will give them belief.

They have the better scrum and a number of very good players spread throughout the team. I've seen Sarries play a number of times. A very good team and deservingly topped our pool. However Ulster are looking strong too and are a match for them.

Having watched the Heineken Cup time and again in Europe over the last decade I can safely say that league form doesn't matter diddly squat in Europe. Its about a once off must win game and I think Ulster are the more likely to claim a win.

Standulstermen,

I notice Beshocked had no qualms about my claim that Tigers would beat Toulon!

QuinsvMunster is 50/50 i'd say. Neither team have a lot of form to bring in to this game so they'll both be looking for fresh starts.

If Quins can get a try early doors then we'll grow in confidence and hopefully our game will get a bit more composed as a result. I still wouldn't put it past Munster to come back from a deficit and win though. If on the other handwe concede points early we'll probably look to chase the game and could end up with a wupping as we expose ourselves.

Sarries game could be hindered a fair bit by not being on their new pitch, the speed of their forwards has been a shock over the last few weeks, and now they won't be able to rely on that so much.

Don't think you can blame people for underestimating Sarries beshocked me old mucker. See all their recent form has come in the Aviva Prem which is an inferior league. Ok I never, ever watch it myself but I just know its inferior. Know what I mean?

Oh and Stag, objecively I wouldn't say Quins were firm favourites. We're actually very similar to Munster at the moment, but I'd still say you boys have more big game experience and while the sum of our parts is class, perhaps a few of your individuals are better then ours man for man.

Notch wrote:Don't think you can blame people for underestimating Sarries beshocked me old mucker. See all their recent form has come in the Aviva Prem which is an inferior league. Ok I never, ever watch it myself but I just know its inferior. Know what I mean?

Ouch don't start underestimating Sarries and then dissing the Jeff. Playing with fire....

yappysnap wrote:Oh and Stag, objecively I wouldn't say Quins were firm favourites. We're actually very similar to Munster at the moment, but I'd still say you boys have more big game experience and while the sum of our parts is class, perhaps a few of your individuals are better then ours man for man.

Its actually funny but its true. On one hand you have a a team with a number of very good individual players (Zebo, O'Connell, Murray, Howlett, Ryan, O'Mahony etc.) with a poorly functioning game plan. On the other you have a team with probably less international players but with a game plan that the team know and trust. For years Munster were the latter taking on the big name French and English clubs with a game plan we all bought into. It now seems we are the big name and the tables have turned.

Most of our tries either come from the maul or from a bit of individual play. I'd rather be in Quins position but its definitely not a foregone conclusion.

yappysnap wrote:

Notch wrote:Don't think you can blame people for underestimating Sarries beshocked me old mucker. See all their recent form has come in the Aviva Prem which is an inferior league. Ok I never, ever watch it myself but I just know its inferior. Know what I mean?

Ouch don't start underestimating Sarries and then dissing the Jeff. Playing with fire....

Sorry, gonna have to throw you back. See- you're a trout. But I'm fishing for salmon!

red stag you say home advantage doesn't come into play but I think you are wrong personally. You do touch closely to Saracen's impressive stat I hint to in one of my previous posts.

Who do you think will be more comfortable playing at Twickenham?

A side who has played their numerous times and won an AP title there or one whose only match there didn't quite go to plan?

I expect a tough match. I am not certainly not underestimating Ulster. They picked up an excellent win on the weekend and have some really good players.

I just feel really happy with the Saracens squad at the moment. Even when down by 10+ points they have come back really strongly.

I think you're underestimating Ulster in saying you think Saracens are good, beshocked...............................





Okay, so I'm only trying to add more madness to this 'you think we is bad by saying your side is good' schmaltz.

Ulster will have to have full lungs for 80 to make an impact. But Saracens, I think, will have to be pretty damn serious about the competition coming to meet them too. Any complacency on either side and it's the proverbial curtains.

SecretFly wrote:Ulster will have to have full lungs for 80 to make an impact. But Saracens, I think, will have to be pretty damn serious about the competition coming to meet them too. Any complacency on either side and it's the proverbial curtains.

Precisely.

SecretFly wrote:I think you're underestimating Ulster in saying you think Saracens are good, beshocked...............................





Okay, so I'm only trying to add more madness to this 'you think we is bad by saying your side is good' schmaltz.

Ulster will have to have full lungs for 80 to make an impact. But Saracens, I think, will have to be pretty damn serious about the competition coming to meet them too. Any complacency on either side and it's the proverbial curtains.

Agree with that. I am looking forward to hopefully a high intensity game. Personally I think this game is the game of the round but I would wouldn't I?

So back onto actual rugby talk - what 23 are you expecting for Ulster? What's the injury update etc?

So does no one think Montpellier could beat Clermont?

Don't forget they did man shame Toulon in Europe this season.

yappysnap wrote:So does no one think Montpellier could beat Clermont?

Don't forget they did man shame Toulon in Europe this season.

Anything can happen yappy. So I'd never be shocked into ten years of silence if that Montpellier win happened. (What?? Some of you will be hoping for a Monty win now and hoping I change my mind about the silence bit??? )

But on the balance of probabilities who would you say has the better chance?

Montpellier could definitely win. They have the Lions test number 8 in their ranks after all.

Seriously, it's hard to look past home wins here, but I just have a feeling that Leicester could pull one out of the bag.

Standulstermen wrote:So it seems that if you think ulster have a chance you are underestimating Saracens?

Any ulster fan I have seen has said sarries are favourites. (apart from rodders but he is nuts)

beshocked gets very very defensive about his beloved Saracens

You are right all we've said is we have a decent chance, thats not underestimating anyone.

Artful_Dodger wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:So it seems that if you think ulster have a chance you are underestimating Saracens?

Any ulster fan I have seen has said sarries are favourites. (apart from rodders but he is nuts)

beshocked gets very very defensive about his beloved Saracens

You are right all we've said is we have a decent chance, thats not underestimating anyone.

Artful Dodger I was wondering if you could tell me what you expect your 23 to be. Close to full strength?

The neutrals seem to be a lot more optimistic about Tigers chances than us supporters. I think our away record in Europe over the last few years has caused a large amount of pessimism among the fans and considering how powerful Toulon look, especially at home, I unfortunately will go there looking forward to a weekend in the south of France and a good game of rugby but not expecting a win.

On a side note, it seems that the main square in Toulon near the stadium will be converted into a "Supporters Village" on Saturday and Sunday with food, bars, activities for kids to do, music and a big screen to watch the other quarter finals on which is great.

The supporters village looks good. Certainly a good place to watch Saturday's matches.

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/news/20658.php

Interesting stats about the lineout. It's an area that surely Saracens will target Ulster.

beshocked wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:So it seems that if you think ulster have a chance you are underestimating Saracens?

Any ulster fan I have seen has said sarries are favourites. (apart from rodders but he is nuts)

beshocked gets very very defensive about his beloved Saracens

You are right all we've said is we have a decent chance, thats not underestimating anyone.

Artful Dodger I was wondering if you could tell me what you expect your 23 to be. Close to full strength?

No Bowe, Paddy Wallace or Ferris but shouldn't be far off full strength. I'll guess something along the lines off:

15 Payne
14 Trimble
13 Cave
12 Marshall
11 Gilroy
10 Jackson
9 Pienaar
8 Williams
7 Henry
6 Henderson/ Diack
5 Touhy
4 Muller
3 Afoa
2 Best
1 Court

Bench: Black,Herring ,Fitzpatrick/Lutton, Stevenson, Henderson/Diack, Marshall, Olding, Nelson

beshocked wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:So it seems that if you think ulster have a chance you are underestimating Saracens?

Any ulster fan I have seen has said sarries are favourites. (apart from rodders but he is nuts)

beshocked gets very very defensive about his beloved Saracens

You are right all we've said is we have a decent chance, thats not underestimating anyone.

Artful Dodger I was wondering if you could tell me what you expect your 23 to be. Close to full strength?

Very close. We won't have Ferris who is frankly finished. We won't have Tommy Bowe on the wing which is a blow but we've been coping with him out well given the depth we have on the wings. Aside from that I'm expecting a full strength team. The same as what rodders posted above but I would have Luke Marshall ahead of Wallace now anyway. So I would say 13 out of our first choice 15 will be starting.

I think we might go with a 6-2 split with olding and Marshall benching for the backs. Other than that we may drop Lewis on the reasoning that Henderson can cover the row as well. Either way I think we will see 5 back rowers in the squad. I don't think we realistically expect Williams to do the 80.

Henderson and Diack are excellent line out exponents too which will be massive.

Yep, expecting;

Court Best Afoa
Muller (c) Tuohy
Diack Williams Henry
Pienaar Jackson
Marshall Cave
Trimble Payne Gilroy

Herring Black Lutton Stevenson Henderson Wilson Marshall Olding Allen Nelson

- either one backrow and one outside back or two outside backs. 8 from 10 of those. Would not be at all surprised to see another 6/2 split on the bench for Ulster.

I think that some of the disconnect people have with Irish teams form and expectations coming into the Heineken Cup comes from not understanding the Irish provinces.

In Scotland, England and Wales the big games in the season are the autumn test and Six Nations. Thats where they want to peak, thats where the blood gets stirred and they find that extra gear thats the difference between defeat and glory.

But Irish players don't have that at test level. For better or worse, that comes in the Heineken Cup instead for us. So we'll always have a bit of an extra 1 or 2% on the French and English sides in terms of intensity because of that. It's just one factor amongst many, but in a tight game it can prove the big difference. Maybe enough for 2 away wins? Wouldn't rule it out.

Notch wrote:Yep, expecting;

Court Best Afoa
Muller (c) Tuohy
Diack Williams Henry
Pienaar Jackson
Marshall Cave
Trimble Payne Gilroy

Herring Black Lutton Stevenson Henderson Wilson Marshall Olding Allen Nelson

- either one backrow and one outside back or two outside backs. 8 from 10 of those. Would not be at all surprised to see another 6/2 split on the bench for Ulster.

I think that some of the disconnect people have with Irish teams form and expectations coming into the Heineken Cup comes from not understanding the Irish provinces.

In Scotland, England and Wales the big games in the season are the autumn test and Six Nations. Thats where they want to peak, thats where the blood gets stirred and they find that extra gear thats the difference between defeat and glory.

But Irish players don't have that at test level. For better or worse, that comes in the Heineken Cup instead for us. So we'll always have a bit of an extra 1 or 2% on the French and English sides in terms of intensity because of that. It's just one factor amongst many, but in a tight game it can prove the big difference. Maybe enough for 2 away wins? Wouldn't rule it out.

If Jackson has a good day and Pienaar has had a break and recovered his mojo - you can definitely do it. SUFTUM.

I'm looking forward to Henry v Kelly Brown knocking chunks out of each other at the breakdown.

My tips:

Sarries
Refuse to call between Quins and Munster. Already have butterflies
Toulon
Clermont

My tips:

Sarries
Refuse to call between Quins and Munster. Already have butterflies
Toulon
Clermont

The pressure is showing Jersey!

Expected Quins team if all are fit:

1.Marler
2.Buchanan
3.Johnston
4.Kohn
5.Robson
6.Fa'Asavalu
7.Robshaw
8.Easter
9.Care
10.Evans
11.Monye
12.JTH
13.Lowe
14.Williams
15.Brown

Not a bad team but I feel we'd be better suited to playing Robshaw at 6 and Wallace at 7 for this one. It's a 50/50 between Casson and JTH for the 12 shirt, Casson can kick but JTH is better defensively. I'm also seriously torn between Williams for his all round game and Chisholm on the right wing.

You dont think Robshaw will start Yappy?

Hearing rumours of Tommy being fit to be on the bench... If so that could be a big boost for Ulster!