Who is going to win the Rugby World Cup

First topic message reminder :

Simple question - who do you think will win this years World Cup?

Remember its in New Zealand people!

And who do you think will be in the final with them?

Hi Linebreaker - long time no see!

I'd tip Australia slightly ahead of South Africa as second favourites behind NZ, though that is in no way excluding the AB's from choking in somewhat epic fashion.

Part of myself cannot stray from Wales' course, though I'd gladly take the semi's. Heck, when the time comes we could well be underdogs to leave our group.

Hobo wrote:Hi Linebreaker - long time no see!

Hi Hobo,

Back again...watching cricket at an ungodly hour!

How's things? The site is on fire...

luckless_pedestrian wrote:I know they're Six Nations champions, but I don't know how anyone can tip England as potential World Cup winners. Their pack won't win them games on their own, their half backs can be got at and rattled, their centres are not the Dynamic Duo and Chris Ashton will only score tries if someone else makes a break for him.

They still have a better chance than Wales, though.



P.S. I'm exaggerating for effect about England, but I genuinely don't see them as contenders.

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Why dont you think back to 2007 Rugby World Cup...I realy think it would be fare to say that i was not the only one before the RWC even started, that gave England a cat in hells chance of even getting any where near the final of the RWC.

So even though the Abs at this moment look unbeatable, I would not be so keen to write off any teams chances of winning....Yes and that includes England.

Madge, if you read on from the post you quoted, I go on to say much the same thing as you.

Linebreaker wrote:

Hobo wrote:Hi Linebreaker - long time no see!

Hi Hobo,

Back again...watching cricket at an ungodly hour!

How's things? The site is on fire...

Yep - its really picked up thanks to the virtual pub from 606 moving over, 606 finally closing and a load of advertising on Twitter by me!

If you use it, here is the link:

http://twitter.com/#!/606v2rugby

YOU ARE MISSING THE MAIN CONTENDERS ON THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





JAPAN!!!!
but in all seriousness, i dont know how the fixtures are working but as long as the 3 SH teams arent on the same side of it, i cant see past an all SH final, unless france really steps up.

england team is too young and inexepereinced atm, showed during the ireland match, but they are looking a good side, wales really need to step it up, scotland need to score tries, and ireland well we know how good they can be.

would like wales to do well with it being SHANES swangsong and possibly Stephen jones going, would be a good send off to two brilliant players

Sure luckless, I forgot to add a wink...

They'll be improving over the next few years leading up 'til then, I'm sure. Also, they will lift even more at home.

I think Aus will win in 2015. That Dingo Deans is a pretty good coach.

NZ should win but even if they do there will be the critics who ramble on about only being able to do it at home.
Aussie will be a danger as will the Saffers.

Wales are in an awful state 3 games out from the WC kick off. Gatland needs to play his expected 15 for all three games. If he buggers up and we do not get to the quarter finals expect him back in NZ possibly with the Hurricans after all the discontent going on there!

New Zealand clear favourites, with Australia my second tip. Boring yes, but I don't see another side winning it.

France, Australia and South Africa are the only three teams capable of beating New Zealand in New Zealand this year I reckon.

But France and South Africa both have crazy coaches who are scuppering their chances. Australia have a good coach but the team does have weaknesses that can be exposed. I'd say the Aussie's are the biggest threat to the All Blacks but I'm 90% sure the Kiwi's will win the cup. It'll be a good lift for the people of Christchurch to, so I wouldn't begrudge them.

"Australia have a good coach":

I thought Robbie Deans was good at the Crusaders but I also think part of that was he was blessed with some great players during his tenure- and a lot of them.

I still wonder why results dont make a good coach when it comes to Deans.

Aus have lost 5 from 10. thats 50%. Thats not the first set of games under Robbies 4 year tenure, thats the last.

People say hes built his team gradually over 4 years to what it is now. What is it now? It still has no reliable front row or back ups to it. They still have no consistency. They get ridiculous flying starts yet fall away against SA and got done by England in one of 2 losses last year.

Yes hes built a good team in Oz over 4 years but really, in OZ -who wouldnt if given that time frame and a leash that long. Just.... don't..... get......it.

Frankly if I were an Oz supporter, I'd be expecting more of a Kiwi coach in that period. Yes they have the stars- but where are the results?

Taylorman wrote:"Australia have a good coach":

Frankly if I were an Oz supporter, I'd be expecting more of a Kiwi coach in that period. Yes they have the stars- but where are the results?

I tend to agree with that. So frustrating to watch the team get off to great starts against SA, then take the foot off the pedal. Last year against NZ it was the usual rubbish to start...then things did get closer, culminating in a win in the dead rubber match in HK.

I still have faith in Robbie (unlike certain ARU people who are sharpening the knives) - but ultimately it's up to the players to execute the perfect game plan, contest and treasure possession more cleverly and try to eliminate all the silly errors which are a regular feature of their game.

Berrick Barnes suffering from "footballer's migraine" (neurological disorder caused by multiple/frequent commotions with crisis on regular basis).

http://www.lequipe.fr/Rugby/breves2011/20110613_140217_barnes-proche-de-l-arret.html

sorry if its old news but thought he was mentionned in the wallabies line-up (albeit as 2nd choice).

Torn between Australia and New Zealand myslef, NZ for the obvious resaons home crowd, the world class players they have etc but Oz have a very young team and the Reds have been on superb form in the Super XV (especially Genia and Cooper) so confidence for them will be high and they can beat NZ in their backyard! Either way i cant wait and hope Ireland perform to their true ability as the potential and players are there to ut themselves into the Semis or further

Keep saying it but Cooper and Genia don't go particularly spectacularly against NZ and they've had enough turns at it.

They just don't get the space that they get sxv time. 3N should again confirm this. Oz's chances are still about the preformances of their tight forwards- has been last 4 years and now with several key locks falling away to injury, they'll be starting to to expose some fragile depth in that area.

Well all I can say is that I am thankful the voting on this thread doesn't depict how SA will fare.

It seems we are 7th favorite with Scotland to win this one.

All the other 6 nations countries have better chance than us to win.

At least there won't be any public pressure n the Springboks...................

Oh wait, the votes don't count!

Biltong, I think everyone knows the Bokke will be a threat at the World Cup. The Tri Nations will tell us a lot about how the Big Three are shaping up - and on the other hand, it'll have no bearing whatsoever on how the World Cup will pan out!

Taylorman wrote:Keep saying it but Cooper and Genia don't go particularly spectacularly against NZ and they've had enough turns at it.

They just don't get the space that they get sxv time. 3N should again confirm this. Oz's chances are still about the preformances of their tight forwards- has been last 4 years and now with several key locks falling away to injury, they'll be starting to to expose some fragile depth in that area.

not sure about that

last game against us they sneaked a win and the game before we sneaked a win. Nothing in it I reckon.

At this point, my guess is an England NZ final (lucky draw for England is the reason) and NZ winning the final comfortably in the second half.

nganboy wrote:

Taylorman wrote:Keep saying it but Cooper and Genia don't go particularly spectacularly against NZ and they've had enough turns at it.

They just don't get the space that they get sxv time. 3N should again confirm this. Oz's chances are still about the preformances of their tight forwards- has been last 4 years and now with several key locks falling away to injury, they'll be starting to to expose some fragile depth in that area.

not sure about that

last game against us they sneaked a win and the game before we sneaked a win. Nothing in it I reckon.

Maybe Genia has played enough to make that argument, but Cooper's only played the All Blacks twice for one win / one loss.

I disagree with comments about Robbie Deans. I think he is a great coach.

Four years ago the Wallabies still had Greagn, Larkham et al running around. He has taken a team of very young players (JOC 19, Genia 21, Cooper 23, Faainga 23, Pocock 21, Beale 22 etc) and moulded them into a team that can compete (and win against) the top 2 sides in the world. Only 6 or 7 players from the last WC will make the squad this time, let alone the 1st XV. Only AAC, Palu (if fit), Elsom, Sharpe and Drew Mitchell (if fit) will make the starting XV. Giteau on the bench and possibly Berrick Barnes, again if fit.

The results against the AB's have been very one-sided but they were better than Sth Africa last season. Yes, they blew some big leads last year but i think this was due to inexperience on the players part rather than poor coaching. The claim that they beat the AB's in a so-called "dead rubber" holds no weight. There are no "dead rubbers", ever, between Australia and New Zealand, especially in Rugby. I'm looking forward to see how they have developed after another season of Super XV.

If they can improve on last year i reckon they'll give the AB's a good run for their money. I think the AB's (rightly) are favourites for the WC but if the Wallabies click, New Zealand will have be at the top of their game to win.

How was your holiday in Cambodia, Jello?

How was your holiday in Cambodia, Jello?

.

Was a working holiday and it's true what they say - you will work harder with a gun in your back.

All for one measley bowl of rice a day.

Needless to say I won't be going back

Even younger Scottish team but I am dreaming by thinking we can win the bloody thing. Oh well he who travels in hope !

As a biased Nzer I say the ABs, but those guys from South Africa worry me...

Taylorman wrote:"Australia have a good coach":

I thought Robbie Deans was good at the Crusaders but I also think part of that was he was blessed with some great players during his tenure- and a lot of them.

I still wonder why results dont make a good coach when it comes to Deans.

Aus have lost 5 from 10. thats 50%. Thats not the first set of games under Robbies 4 year tenure, thats the last.

People say hes built his team gradually over 4 years to what it is now. What is it now? It still has no reliable front row or back ups to it. They still have no consistency. They get ridiculous flying starts yet fall away against SA and got done by England in one of 2 losses last year.

Yes hes built a good team in Oz over 4 years but really, in OZ -who wouldnt if given that time frame and a leash that long. Just.... don't..... get......it.

Frankly if I were an Oz supporter, I'd be expecting more of a Kiwi coach in that period. Yes they have the stars- but where are the results?

The last "set"? Sounds selective. In 2010 Wallabies played 15 tests, won 9. One test against England they lost by a point because Matt Giteau missed a penalty goal 18 yards out dead in front. Anyone else could have sneezed the ball over. They also lost to the ABs by a point (22-23) after a very questionable try to Sir Richie. The Hong Kong test was no dead rubber - it hurt them as it broke a potential world record winning streak - even McCaw said it hurt. So really, 9 could have been 11 out of 15 - when taken into account the youth of the team (O'Connor is 19 as an example) and I think Deans has done a good job with the cattle that he has had available.

Suprised AB's not well over 50% & suprised S.A. not 2nd in voting
I think the winner of there semi should win it all

I feel that France, England, Oz and SA will all match NZ in the pack but only Oz got the backline to beat them and will therefore win the WC

Rob B.
Of course that set was selective. thats what statistics are for- to illustrate a point. Yes we could move back and forward around the win loss record but any way you do it it still spells consistency. My main point is any coach would have the record Deans has over the last 4 years. The fact that its considered hes done well means a lesser coach would have faired worse- is that the case here?

Yes there are young players coming through but in 4 years if nobody else is playing well isnt that a given. What is it that hes actually done in 4 years to get them to this point. I'd love to know.

And steven_sharks, are things all that simple where you are?

Taylorman

The more reliable stat is to look at the entire season not a selection of games. As I said 9/15 is a lot better than 5/10 when you look at the season taken as a whole and coaches should be assessed based on the season, not a sub-set of a season.

Personally I do not think you can put a lot of credit to the coach. The buck stops with the coach yes, as someone needs to be held accountable and that is normally the coach. Coaches don't win games though, players do. Deans came to Aust with a great record at the Crusaders and he has been criticised given the win/loss record of the Wallabies. However, I put that down to cattle, rather than the coach. How hard was it coaching the Crusaders when they had/have 10/11 ABs in the team year in year out? He had the cattle, so they got the results; hardly because of great coaching.

Again cattle has been the problem at the Wallabies. With the injuries last year, Deans was picking guys in the Wallabies (eg Maafu and Mumm) who were barely up to Super14 standard. He could scarcely find a prop in the country. I don't think he can be blamed for that.

Where I think he has done a great job is uncovering talent and giving them a go at the highest levels - and I don't think another coach would have necessarily done that. Last year blokes like O'Connor, Beale, Genia etc were barely a few years out of high school and they have thrived under Deans because he has given them a go and let them play their own game. they are on the rise.

Yep thats fair comment. He certainly is one for allowing players to express themselves. Comments like that came out when he first started and that was good to hear. Henry is in the same shool of thinking.

It will be interesting after the Reds win or loss this year how he translates the available talent into the 3N. Given a good pack of forwards the backs could impose a lot on this tournament, more so than last year and perhaps drive tht consistency.

Cooper is a little high risk but thats what comes with the territory with those types of players. Brilliant one minute a liability the next.

Have to say in Beale and OConnor you have 2 stars over there. Two players where Im always expecting something to happen and it usually does.

So fair enough, lets see what happens over the next few weeks. SA and Oz are certainly looking to get one up on the Abs after last year and just may do it. Deans will be under very close scrutiny during the 3N I would think. Time to get the potential WC winning side onto the field. And good luck to him.

Namibia

The final will be France v NZ. France to win.

New Zealand should be dead certs, a home advantage should be massive, but the pressure on the players will be the same, imagine a tight game will THE CHOKER mentality come out ?

I think England will do the best out of northern hemisphere, unless ireland can pull somthing out

Wales will be nowhere, stuggle to ge through group, i hope im wrong but we will see i in these warm up games

S.A dark horses

Given the fact that NZ has never beaten Australia at a World Cup and lost the last game between them (at this stage) if it ends up as a NZ Aus final surely Aus would be favourites.
I think the idea NZ are dead certs is just crazy. Any top rugby country isn't thinking that I bet.

I really believe Ireland are finally gonna step up this year we have not got the expectency like going into the last world cup and if we click the only tem that i believe can beat us is NZ

Sean OB is gonna be player of the tourney book it

C'mon You Irish wrote:I really believe Ireland are finally gonna step up this year we have not got the expectency like going into the last world cup and if we click the only tem that i believe can beat us is NZ

Sean OB is gonna be player of the tourney book it

He isn't a guaranteed starter!

If he makes the team he could do well. I can't see him being one of the best players of the tournament unless he improves his game at the breakdown. Jennings won't be around to do his dirty work, most likely.

Thormand of course he is going to start it will be him , Wallace and Heaslip

Ferris will not be fit enough to start games he may be brought on near the end of matches but no way will he start

Most Irish fans don't think he will start,look at the team pick threads and he isn't starting. I want him to start but he isn't assured of his place. There was a reason he didn't get near the team when Ferris was around.

Im not saying he is better than Ferris when both are at a 100% of course you would pick Ferris but it would be just stupid to play a non match fit Ferris ahead of a world class player in OB

On another note how do you feel about our chances

We should get out of our group. I don't see us getting much further then the semis(tha'ts a big ask). ROG could be the man for the game against the Aussies in the hopes of pinning them in their own half. You need a very strict line of defence to follow up them kicks though. If we lose to the Aussies then South Africa down under could be a big ask for a team who has no history of winning in the Southern hemisphere.

If we beat Aus and Finish top of our group i would be dissapointed if we didnt get to the final. If we come 2nd i still rekon we will get to semis in all the articles i have read the team seem very relaxed and confident which is great because i believe if we click Nz are the only team better than us

I don't think anything is decided yet with regards to the backrow really. Ireland have four test matches and a friendly in August before the World Cup. That is potentially enough time for guys to get back and fit in time and really, despite voting in the polls that have been going around, I'm waiting to see who fronts up and who doesn't in those games.

Notch is right. It's all up for grabs. Ferris could play his way back on to the team. He has nothing to prove - only his fitness. Fitzgerald could make it also. FB is still not sorted either. Darcy could also be replaced if he's not right. My choice would be McFadden. Paddy Wallace very much in the frame. He has precious experience at this level... It's not done yet, not by a long shot. The Summer Tests will tell us more about how Kidney is thinking and who will be fit, ready and showing form at the end of them.

But, after seeing Oz blow SA away and then relax... I would not hold out too much hope of us topping the group. Could we do something we have never done before in history and beat SA in the QF's down there? I doubt it. But... I still believe.

One thing's for sure, if we do manage to beat Oz, the door to a SF opens wider...

We will beat aus mark my words

26 - 19 Book It

After the last 5 World cups I'm keeping my gob shut.

Laurie,
You are the best team in it - by far. Everyone knows that. Just need to do it this time. I think ye will. The only team you need to fear is Oz, imo.

BELIEVE!