Aviva Premiership Final Round Preview

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Table

	Played	Won	Draw	Lost	For	Against	Tries For	Tries Against	TBP	LBP	Points
Saracens	21	16	1	4	510	325	38	23	5	2	73
Leicester Tigers	21	14	1	6	506	325	51	26	6	5	69
Harlequins	21	14	0	7	538	434	49	32	5	4	65
Northampton Saints	21	14	0	7	482	411	52	33	6	2	64
Gloucester Rugby	21	12	1	8	476	441	35	39	1	7	58
Exeter Chiefs	21	11	1	9	502	407	48	38	4	5	55
Bath Rugby	21	10	1	10	438	411	42	26	4	7	53
London Wasps	21	9	0	12	491	507	45	49	4	7	47
London Irish	21	7	1	13	439	569	35	52	2	3	35
Worcester Warriors	21	5	1	15	400	514	32	55	3	8	33
Sale Sharks	21	6	1	14	356	576	35	51	2	3	31
London Welsh	21	4	0	17	379	597	26	64	0	7	18

Fixtures

Sat 4th May 13 14:30
Exeter Chiefs v Gloucester Rugby ESPN Classic
Harlequins v Northampton Saints ESPN
Leicester Tigers v London Irish
London Welsh v Worcester Warriors
Sale Sharks v London Wasps
Saracens v Bath Rugby Sky



Preview
Well we have wound our way to the last weekend of the regular season and for most players their summer holiday starts on Saturday evening. Relegation is sorted and the play-off teams are known, so we are left to sort out the finer details:

Play-Off Semis
Saracens have a home semi-final and will be looking for the win needed to clinch top spot in the table. Tigers need 2pts to guarantee the second home semi or 5pts to have any chance of sneaking the top league spot - though this would still need Sarries to get no points at all at home to Bath. Assuming Tigers do what is needed Quins and Saints meet to see who can avoid the visit to Allianz Park.

HEC Spots
Gloucester have already secured one of the remaining HEC spots, with Exeter and Bath in contention for the remaining place. Exeter have the advantage, 2pts ahead and a home match (with gloucster) while Bath have the unenviable visit to the Aliianz.

Leading Try Scorers
For the last couple of seasons, Leicester have quite comfortably been the leading try scorers. Matters are much closer this season. Entering the final match, Saints are leading this race, Tigers in second 1 behind with Quins and Exeter still in reach.

Match Previews

Shown live on Sky, 2011 Champions Saracens host a Bath team needing a win to have any chance of making HEC. Yesterday's defeat was perhaps the worst thing that could have happened to Bath's chances. In fact it could be the worst thing that could have happened to the other title contenders. Saracens will be hurting and looking to hand out some pain to others. We can expect their defence to be aggressive and always in Bath's face looking to create the errors and turnovers on which they usually thrive. Bath will be looking to bring the scrummaging that caused Tigers trouble to this fixture, but will need to tighten up their line-out as with Borthwick, Saracens have a supreme operator. Saracens have won every AP match at their new ground, while Bath have been poor away from home this season having failed to win on their travels since Round 1. Sarries should win, but expect some nervy moments.

London Irish travel to Welford Rd in the last round for the 2nd time in 3 seasons. A repeat of that last match will leave Tigers fans with short fingernails but ultimately happy (two Ojo interceptions saw Irish leading by 15 points with just 12 minutes remaining - 4 tries in the time remaining saw Tigers take full points and top the table). With nothing to play for and a large number of players leaving the club we can expect a real end of term part feeling from LI - with them throwing the ball around with abandon. Tigers need to avoid getting sucked into the party atmosphere, ensure the basics are done well and secure the points needed to guarantee a home semi-final. That is not to say that tigers should be negative - but need to try not to force issues else we could see yet more interception tries.

With Quins hosting Saints (on ESPN), both teams could finish second. Most likely scenario however is that the winner will finish 3rd and avoid a visit to Saracens. Northampton looked woeful when hosting Tigers in round 19. In two big wins since then, against relegated London Welsh and a Sale team selected to secure RFU funding rather than match points, they have looked powerful. Really though we have learnt little in these two matches. Since beating Tigers in February (at which point they topped the table) Quins have struggled for form and results that saw them slide out of Europe and down the table. A scrappy win over Bath reversed the sequence of loses - and by all accounts they looked good in attack against Worcester last week. Harlequins should be too strong and do everything they can to try and secure a home semi.

In the third televised match, Exeter host Gloucester. The winner will finish in 5th spot. Gloucester broke their bad run with victory over Saracens last time out but Exter need the win more.

With bugger all to play for, the last two fixtures may well slip under the radar. London Welsh will hope to wave goodbye to the premiership with their first win since 1st December, Warriors will hope to gain their first away win - I favour the latter result. Sale finish a dificult season at home to Wasps. Will Diamond pick a proper team? Will Diamon select a proper team? Are the Sale players who went out on the lash in Leeds last week up for a fight? If the answer to both is yes, then Sale should win. If not then Wasps attacking prowess will hold sway.

May is a good winger and has a decent fb skill set which Lancaster likes to have on one wing. Would offer more off the wing than Brown and if the game plan is to kick long (maybe less so with no Farrell at 10) then he'd add nicely to our kick chase. Wade and May waiting to run the ball back would encourage the Argentinean's to keep ball in hand.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:That would be ideal, buddy, plus maybe Perpignan and Ulster - think that works

Aye dude but we will be playing Ulster for the fifth time in the Rabo Final on 25 May so maybe we could do with a wee break from them - Cardiff Blues would suit tbh as we don't want Leinster or Munster

greytiger wrote:I'd like to see a breakdown of May's tries - and the defences he got them against. But when he scores, it stays scored - that's for sure.

8 in 13 matches in the league plus the Worcester penalty try which he should probably get a bit of credit for. Played a couple of games back in September but then was out til February, since when all his tries have been scored.

2 v Northampton 09/02
(pen try when tripped v Worcester 22/02)
2 v Bath 01/03
1 v Harlequins 29/03
2 v Saracens 20/04
1 v Exeter 04/05

Wouldn't say he's a flat track bully at all if that was the question. All top teams.

jeffwinger wrote:

greytiger wrote:I'd like to see a breakdown of May's tries - and the defences he got them against. But when he scores, it stays scored - that's for sure.

8 in 13 matches in the league plus the Worcester penalty try which he should probably get a bit of credit for. Played a couple of games back in September but then was out til February, since when all his tries have been scored.

2 v Northampton 09/02
(pen try when tripped v Worcester 22/02)
2 v Bath 01/03
1 v Harlequins 29/03
2 v Saracens 20/04
1 v Exeter 04/05

Wouldn't say he's a flat track bully at all if that was the question. All top teams.

Nothing of the sort jeffwinger.

There are some impressive Jeff scalps there.
Definitely worth an Argentinian trip - even more so on that track record.

I wouldn't have believed it at the start of the season but I'd really like to see Varndell travel to Argentina. He's big, quick and smart and his defence is far better. Varndell, May and Wade would make a fearsome trio in the back three.

In attack yes, but non existent in defence!

Nah he's alright in defence now, can't be worse then Ashton or Wade anyway.

yappysnap wrote:Nah he's alright in defence now, can't be worse then Ashton or Wade anyway.

Wade's D at Club level is actually pretty good, better than Varndell's up front at the very least

Wade has good technique in the tackle and at the breakdown, he is also brave (unlike Varndell). His issue is just that he is tiny so will always get out muscled and goes backward in the tackle (though he does tend to make them).

That might well mean he is a bit of a liability in contact but what he offers ball in hand should make up for that.

I see that Wade and May both tore it up at the weekend again. God, I hope both travel this summer and stake a claim for the next Six Nations.

Haven't had a chance to watch the games, but also saw Sharples sprint try. Good to see him back on the scoresheet.

I know Varndell was utterly pathetic in that Saxons game v the Wolfhounds. But since then he really hasn't been too bad, at least no worse then any other wing and with a far far far better strike rate.

Can any one actually recall a clear cut situation where Varndell bottled it and cost Wasps a try this season? If I recall correctly he now spends a fair bit of time covering for Wade as well as his own defensive duties.

The tag of 'poor defender' is a hard one to shake off though yappy, mistakes which would be overlooked if another did it are picked up on more readily.

In terms of Varndell costing Wasps a try, Abendanon's try against them was certainly helped by some poor positioning from him. I can't think of a time when he 'did a Cipriani' in a 1 on 1 though, but I don't watch all the Wasps games.

yappysnap wrote:I know Varndell was utterly pathetic in that Saxons game v the Wolfhounds. But since then he really hasn't been too bad, at least no worse then any other wing and with a far far far better strike rate.

Can any one actually recall a clear cut situation where Varndell bottled it and cost Wasps a try this season? If I recall correctly he now spends a fair bit of time covering for Wade as well as his own defensive duties.

Wasps vs Bath - 1st try for Abendanon.

That's the one I clearly remember.