djokovic and ferrer: First real measuring stick for Djoko on clay this season?

So far novak has won 29 straight matches and five straight on clay. But he is 0-3 lifetime against Ferrer on clay. This year however Novak is not the same Novak that we have seen 2010 or 2009. Ferrer has played real well this season on clay reaching two finals against Nadal and winning a 500 pointer in Acapulco against then surging Nicholas Almagro. Ferrer's solid strokes, blazing speed and fitness is good enough to beat 95 percent of the guys out there on tour. Can he stop the Djokovic freight train? Can novak break his duck on clay against the dogged spainard? Of all the quarters this one is maybe the most interesting. If Novak gets through ferrer, with Andy having been knocked out, the Nadal/Djoko Final I have been waiting for since miami will come to pass. But David has proved that he is an exceptionally tough out on the clay court and if Novak doesn't serve well Ferrer's returning ability will make this match very tough. My prediction: Novak in a tight 2 sets something like 7-5, 6-3. David is a good player but I just feel like Novak hits the ball too heavy off both wings for him. And Djokovic's returning ability should make life very difficult for Ferrer on his own service games.

I agree with most you say socal... however the one thing that Ferrer has in his favour is his retrieving skills.. he moves on clay like a rabbit and will chase anything that Novak throws at him. However that is the normal Daveeed I think he strugglerd a little at the beginning of this tournament maybe tired from the two finals against Nadal.. But Daveed is full of surprises and for sure he will give Novak a run (being the operative word) for his money. Should be an entertaining match .But it will be a tester for Novak methinks.

I agree with all you have said about David's attributes as a player and he will make it tough for Novak.

However, where he always lacks is that final 10%, to have that winner's mentality and belief in himself that he's going to do it. I will be looking at this match with interest, but I expect Novak to squeeze it.

However ... VAMOS DAVEED !!!

Yes, ladies it will be interesting. David has played Nadal twice on clay this season losing in straights but the sets were all competitive. So since David has played rafa on clay this season, judging by how Novak handles him it might be a good indication of what will happen if Novak and Nole meet in the final. Until Novak's last match with Garcia-Lopez I wasn't very impressed with how he had played on clay so far this season. But he absolutely blitzed a very good clay courter. Not a great player but a solid clay courter. He just made absolute minced meat of Guillermo's second serve winning 77 percent of points on second serve. For David to have a chance in this quarter I think he will have to hit for a high percentage of first serves and Novak will have to miss a lot of first serves to open the door for David.

Rafa as usual looks absolutely terrifying in his clay court form, so no matter what Novak does it might not be enough. Still Rafa has it all to defend between now and the US open. In my mind if he doesn't defend madrid he will be very hard pressed to remain #1 by the end of the season.

I'll stick my neck on the line: Ferrer has no chance today!

But you know socal there is no accounting for nerves.
And whilst its my belief that Rafa has truly earned the title of "The King of Clay" it is my opinion that for the first set at least he will be nervous against Novak.. the other two finals are still in his mind and we know that clay is his place ofr comfort and especially in front of his home crowd... there will, if I know Rafa well, be a little trepidation to start with.
Doubtless Toni has told him to go out there with guns blazing from the outset and that is what he has to do... but it will be interesting if it comes to pass.. to get a fair assessment in the first few minutes of the match..

"so no matter what Novak does it might not be enough. "
Oh, yea of little faith....Nole's winning Madrid this time, I can feel it in my bones, go Noleeeee

If it is a Rafa / Nole final, then it will be the usual physical affair, 3 sets, and the whole thing resting on those usual 3 or 4 points.

As opposed to IW/Miami ... I feel Rafa will have his conditioning back, this time its "his" surface, so I think the narrow margins will tip in Rafa's favour.

But ... <cough> neither one of them are there yet. Lets see how David does today and the other quarter with Feds/Soderling might prove interesting, but I think Rafa should find himself at least in the semi's.

Woffie,

I've thrown all reasoning and sensibility out of the window at the moment, one has to be a fan in times like these, and they don't get any madder than MEEEEEEEEEE!!!!

I'm trying to put passion back in fashion, people are way too careful and cautious these days trying not to lose their face.....

I mean, what's wrong even if I'm wrong .

NITB, I stated earlier that I thought Novak would beat Nadal this year on clay, mostly likely in Madrid but if not in Madrid I think he can beat Rafa at Rome as well. But I always try to be objective, eventhough Novak is by far my favorite player on tour. Nadal is clearly the best we have ever seen on clay. I think if Novak makes the final, (which is looking real likely) I'll go out on the limb with you and take him in an upset. But to be fair we have to conclude that Nadal with his past track record of domination will be a significant favorite in every match up they have on clay till Novak proves otherwise. But I am with you, I'll go with my heart on this one and not with my head.


Haddie, I kind of think the past two matches against Rafa in the American hardcourts cut either of two ways. Rafa is a nice guy, but I think that maybe he is tired of hearing about those two losses. Maybe he is sick of answering the questions about Novak and the number #1 ranking and his streak. You can never tell because it could go either way, could Nadal come back if they meet in the final and be a bit nervous. Afterall, he has it all to lose defending those points and in front of his home fans. Or will he come out fighting mad and ready to make a statement.

Well Im putting MY NECK on the line socal.. and NIB listen up.
Novak may well soon beat Rafa on clay .. I think its not if but when.
BUT NOT IN MADRID... try Rome Nole. Madrid is very dear to Rafa.. his home crowd will be yelling for him (you only had to hear them the other night with Feli) ... so albeit I may well land up with egg of my face
but MADRID BELONGS TO RAFA. Vamos to the King of the Red Earth

Once Berdych has finished mauling Djokovic and Nadal you'll all be sorry.

Stealth Maestro Agro Love wrote:Once Berdych has finished mauling Djokovic and Nadal you'll all be sorry.

Not to mention Federer

With all due respect Berdych just got mauled by Belluci, wow Belluci looking really strong. Haddie, good for you sticking by your prediction. NITB has passion about her favorite player and so do you. Belluci makes it two straight upsets. Why hasn't this guy made an impact before he hits the balls so well off both sides, serves well, and moves well.

What bothers me most socal is that my predictions are usually rubbish that is why I never bet money.... oh dear what have I done

You guys are already talking about Nad/Nov final? Na, Fedz is gonna waltz Nadz in the semis!!

yeh yeh

I am awesome, I would like nothing better than for federer to show some life and display some of his past glory. But don't see it happening. Shows how far we have come were everyone is kinding of just overlooking roger and not giving him a serious chance. Belluci could be the spoiler of the dream final, he looked really good both against Murray and against Berdych. Haddie, we will see how it ends up. Your man did nothing to dispel his aura of invicibility. Llodra looked like a lamb trying to fight a lion today. Wow nadal looks scary on clay right now.

Wooffie wrote:I agree with all you have said about David's attributes as a player and he will make it tough for Novak.

However, where he always lacks is that final 10%, to have that winner's mentality and belief in himself that he's going to do it.

And the will to hit any winners. Ferrer's class but my word, he can be so boring to watch. If he actually attacked occasionally instead of replicating Usain Bolt at every opportunity then maybe he'd be in the same class as the Federer's, Nadal's and now the Djokovic's of this world

You dont think Federer is boring... but some of us do surprise surprise.

And there he goes. Good effort from Ferrer, but he couldn't handle the Djokovic serve for the majority of the match. To his credit he took his only real chance in the second, but Djokovic was just too good for the remainder.

That was a sweet win for Nole. should've done it in straights, but full credit to Ferrer, he gave hi all, but not even that is not enough against Nole who is on fire, COME ON NOLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

May I add that Nole's serve is better than ever, it's quicker and heavier, I get the feeling it's going to work beautifully for him in Wimbledon.....

Well that was a heck of a match. Novak was sailing along up a set and a break and then he looked like he tweeked his ankle and he went to lose like 10 of the next 12 points. He looked like he was ok after that but it just seemed to throw him off and he looked a little worried. Then David played a heck of a match doing what he always does; running down every shot, going after the second serve, and hitting the ball crisply off the forehand. Djokovic for his part just lost control of his forehand from early on in the second set till early on in third set. But a win is a win and he really turned it on double breaking David in the third set to finish him off. Once he got control of his forehand in the third set he took control. All in all Novak made it hard on himself by losing focus when he was in total control of the match. But this was by far the toughest opponent he has had on clay and he hasn't had a lot of clay court action against big time opposition this year.


Stealth I agree David isn't the most enjoyable player to watch. But I don't think it is because he tries not to hit winners. He just isn't that kind of player. He doesn't have natural power or a big serve, and he was playing one of the best retrievers in the business on a clay court. David gets all he can out of his 5'9 inch body.

noleisthebest wrote:That was a sweet win for Nole. should've done it in straights, but full credit to Ferrer, he gave hi all, but not even that is not enough against Nole who is on fire, COME ON NOLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

May I add that Nole's serve is better than ever, it's quicker and heavier, I get the feeling it's going to work beautifully for him in Wimbledon.....

Hmmm.... i'm sure it is a bit better, but the main thing from last year seems more to be the fact he can actually keep his first serve in now. Todd Martin almost wrecked his serve, a potent weapon over the course of 2008, in 2009, so he's done well to get it back to the level it's at now.

socal wrote:
Stealth I agree David isn't the most enjoyable player to watch. But I don't think it is because he tries not to hit winners. He just isn't that kind of player. He doesn't have natural power or a big serve, and he was playing one of the best retrievers in the business on a clay court. David gets all he can out of his 5'9 inch body.

Absolutely, like I said before he's a superb player, and he's clearly maximised his talents, but out of personal preference I just can't stand watching him play. People deride the likes of Soderling and del Potro as one dimensional ball bashers, when to be honest, you could level precisely the same claims at Ferrer, Robredo and company for the opposite reason; all they do is retreive, retreive, retreive. It's worked for him and that's great, but I just don't find it entertaining if it's the only style he uses.

Todd Martin really did damage Novak for about a year and half with his new service motion. He made a lot of errors and let his first serve percentage drop in the second set. When he got his first serve in he was fierce. But lets remember that Ferrer is one of the top 5 returners in the business playing on his favorite surface. Not to mention that Ferrer has played over 20 matches this year on clay and this was Novak's sixth match on clay. And it was his first match against a guy that actually had any chance of beating him. His previous five matches (lopez excluded) where more like training sessions with his little brother.

Yes but there is a difference, I don't think David can play any other way and make it on the tour. Where as Soderling and Del Potro can learn to hit a volley, David can't learn to hit his serve a 135 miles an hour and get it in consistently. He actually does some damage with his forehand, and he really went after Nole's second serve in this match hitting a few really nice winners off the return. But that is about the only way he can hit them. I respect the guy a great deal but wouldn't say he is one of my favorites to watch either. However he does always fight to make matches competitive.

socal1976 wrote:Yes but there is a difference, I don't think David can play any other way and make it on the tour. Where as Soderling and Del Potro can learn to hit a volley, David can't learn to hit his serve a 135 miles an hour and get it in consistently. He actually does some damage with his forehand, and he really went after Nole's second serve in this match hitting a few really nice winners off the return. But that is about the only way he can hit them.

I don't really agree here. OK, Ferrer lacks the power to make himself an all powerful winner belting machine, but your example regarding del Potro and Soderling is poor; after all, Ferrer could learn a thing about using the volley too, he's more than fast enough to rush the net and kill a point off should he get an opponent trapped in a corner of the court. Likewise, there are things that del Potro and Soderling will struggle to do physically, much like Ferrer; asking them to run around at full tilt all day will not produce the same results as it has with Ferrer; he is not really at a major disadvantage because of his frame; some things go for him, some go against.

But physicality does not effect everything. Nikolay Davydenko for instance succeeds in attacking baseline play when he needs to by taking the ball extra early, limiting his opponents time to return it. Federer, albeit a larger chap than the other two, hardly blasts it a lot of the time, using accuracy and a bit of ambition to paint the lines and dismantle the opposition. There are ways around the physical hampering that it would be nice to see him use once in a while, that's all. I don't particularly believe a 140mph serve-fest is all that entertaining either, but a bit of attacking intent would brighten it up for me, that's all.

OK, so Ferrer will primarily be defensive; so's Davydenko, and he makes it interesting by using some tricks to change the flow of a rally in his favour, as opposed to chasing the ball every point. Not every point has to be back and forth; heck it may do him some favours to attack every now and then!

Well, you make some good points but I take exception with the Davy comparison. Two totally different players. Davy actually has a pretty good first serve that can touch 130 produce a fair amount of aces. Also Davy grew up playing on quick indoor surfaces where you have to be aggressive. Not to mention that he has about two inches on ferrer and more natural power. Ferrer could be more aggressive in fact when he plays his best like when he made the semis of the US open by beating Nadal he played alot like how davydenko plays. Hugging the baseline and going up the line a great deal. And last night he won a few really big points at the net against djoko in that second set. All in all I will say that you convinced me. But still I think it would be hard for ferrer after growing up playing clay to learn new tricks so to speak.

Glad to see Novak continue his match wins and it will be nice to see a new face in a final with Nadal.

Unless the man from Brazil can stop him but I think it may be a "bridge to far".

Sportslover, Belluci is playing really well, I always wondered why this kid hasn't made more of an impact. After the marathon Novak had last night I hope he doesn't look past Belluci. I think he can and will win, but i don't think it is quite the mismatch as it appears. Now that Novak is #2 he gets the benefit of not having to beat both Roger and Rafa on the way to every title. But I personally wouldn't be surprised if Novak's semi is more competitive than the fed-nadal semi.

Maybe Roger will have a surprise in store for Rafa but having watched him play he isn't the Roger of old where as Rafa if anything gets stronger!

Even the Roger of old had a tough time with Nadal on clay, and as you say Rafa is stronger and if Roger in his prime didn't have the answer I doubt he has found it at 30.

Roger would have had a problem with Ferrer let alone Rafa

I saw the only match between Nole and Bellucci, in short, Bellucci is a poor man's Novak .

Nole is a lot more talented and is an all court player.

Bellucci is attractive to watch because he strikes the ball cleanly and is a well balanced athlete, but between the ears, let's be brutally honest - he is a top 50 player.

ON a different note, while scrolling down the comments I caught Davy and Ferrer names in the same sentence, funny because I thought of Davy as well last night.
Davy is a class player compared to Ferrer , a lot better and more dangerous from the baseline.

Ferrer has been playing in the form of his life this year, but his game is very limited because he is just a very very good grinder, which works well on clay.

To me Haddie, I personally am not even going to watch the Fed and Nadal semi, I am going out to hit a couple of tennis balls myself and then get back later and watch Djoko-belluci. I don't think it will be competitive. I would be surprised if Roger got a set off of him. I hope I am wrong, who knows he may be able to find a bit of magic and if he serves absolutely lights out find away to sneak it out. But I just can't see it. And I haven't hit a tennis ball for so long that I can't pass up the chance.

I just hope Fed wears out Rafa as much as possible today

NITB, I don't think he will, its possible if there is a clay court fed could hypothetically trouble Rafa on it would be this one. I actually can't see him getting a set. I mean miami was a hardcourt and Rafa just beat him up. I think there is one guy right now who has a real chance of beating Rafa on clay and his name isn't roger. If Roger of 2007 couldn't do anything with a young Nadal on clay I don't think roger 2011 can. To me the rivalry is over.

I hope Belluci does the same to Novak.. he looked pretty tired last night maybe Belluci can finish off the job Walked into that one NIB itsy bitsy bit of wummery me thinks

socal1976 wrote:NITB, I don't think he will, its possible if there is a clay court fed could hypothetically trouble Rafa on it would be this one. I actually can't see him getting a set. I mean miami was a hardcourt and Rafa just beat him up. I think there is one guy right now who has a real chance of beating Rafa on clay and his name isn't roger. If Roger of 2007 couldn't do anything with a young Nadal on clay I don't think roger 2011 can. To me the rivalry is over.

Maybe the Miami was a one-off? You know not every player can turn upto each and every match 100%, there will be some slacking-off by players, I mean after all they are humans! But yeah on clay the clear favourite by a mile is Nadal, however if Roger can counter Rafa's main tactic against him on clay; the top spin shots to his backhand I think Federer has a good chance. And no, the rivalry is not over, it's just that recently they haven't met a lot of times which has taken the intensity out of it, but I think they will meet again in more tough matches and it'll set the rivalry alight!