Does Gatland have a Welsh bias?

We knew before hand that Wales would make up the bulk of the Lions squad after winning the 6 nations, and any tight calls Gatland would prob favour the player he is familar with.

But are there genuine fears that Gatland will be bias?

From
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/22682562

"On the other hand, a lot of the Welsh players have had two weeks together as well and we've trained them pretty hard,"

Is he forgetting that he has Scottish (Hogg, Gray, Maitland) Irish (Murray, Paul O'Connell) and English players (Farrell, Vunipola, Stevens) already there, maybe not the English ones as long, but has had Scottish and Irish players for same time a he's had the Welsh ones?


To be fair I thought I'd just point it out, I think its just habit saying Welsh all the time and I hope he puts out the best team with no bias.

Is anyone slighty concerned though?

We cant make that observation untill the first unrestricted selection.
The game against the BaaBaas will be restricted by the players not available due to domestic finals.

Leinster, Ulster, Saints, Tigers and Toulon players.

Then the early matches will all be about giving as many combinations and players a chance to play.

So, we cant really make that bias assumtion till the 1st test team is announced.

Anyone know what day this week the team is announced?

Yes I am slightly concenred. My concerns will be answered over the next couple of days when the 1st XXIII will be announced for the Baa Baa's game.

I'm not all that bothered if he picks the best players, but anywhere there is a 50-50 call on players (thusfar) he has sided with Welsh guys. How Lydiate is there having barely played any rugby this season whilst Wood, Brown and Robshaw have been consistently good all season was a mystery to me and it still is.

Gatland will obviously want to stick with what he knows, however what "he knows" (Wales) has failed to beat Australia in the last 7 tests they have faced them. If he can't pick a 1st XXIII to beat the Australians out of this crop of fantastic players I reckon his reputation will be tarnished forever. Australia are the weakest I can remember them being, missing key players like Pockock and possibly Beale amongst others they are there to be beaten.

Gatland has to have the courage to pick the best guys, not just the guys he is most familiar with, I'll give him a chance but so far Warbs being captain and Lydiate being picked to tour instead of guys who have been plaing consistent, high intensity rugby all season has shaken my confidence.

The only way to prove that will be if a Welsh player is selected for the tests when a player from another country is obviously better. Given that that is subjective, bias will be almost impossible to prove - only to speculate and suggest. I wish we could put national parochialism aside now and just support The Lions.

Lydiate has played as many games as Paul O'Connell so not sure why POc would not be considered a risk and Lydiate would, considering both look in superb form...?

maestegmafia wrote:Lydiate has played as many games as Paul O'Connell so not sure why POc would not be considered a risk and Lydiate would, considering both look in superb form...?

POC was playing high intensity Heineken Cup and winning MOTM accolades along the way. Lydiate had not.

POC is also a much more experienced player and would bring more to the squad as a whole having been a former Lions Captain himself.

Also there was less competition in the 2nd row as compared to the backrow.

If you have extensive knowledge of someones abilities (i.e. AW Jones) compared to a snapshot of another (Richie Grey) who are you more likely to choose?

Bias will be there, its natural.

However he should stop using the terminology, welsh, Irish, Scottish, English etc.... its going to get him in trouble.

The press are sharpening their knives already... we saw that when Gatland spoke about England during the 6N... all they need is an angle. Say they he goes with what he knows in the 1st test and they lose due to what is perceived to be one of his favoured picks/strategies... the pressure could destroy him and the Lions chances in the 2nd test.

Whatever they say, it will matter.... he may not read the press but when you have every journalist breathing down your neck he may find it tough.

Previously what he said mattered to only 3MM people... now its more like 67MM people. Its broken many and it could break him.

as mentioned by fa, Gatland needs to start building a unity between all the players and talk about them as lions and not Irish, English, welsh or Scottish.

nathan wrote:as mentioned by fa, Gatland needs to start building a unity between all the players and talk about them as lions and not Irish, English, welsh or Scottish.

As captain, Warburton needs to start doing the same. Rather than harping on about Welsh 'leaders'.

More fans getting uptight about nothing and fuelling a nothing story from the media

it wouldn't make sense . it would be the lions and the lions players coming from two winning sides with that confidence and on the other hand lot of lions players had two weeks together

I expect everyone will get a start in the first few games. So if the team to play the Barbarians is roaring with a Welsh accent it doesn't mean much as the Leicester, Leinster and Ulster contingent are likely to get a start against the Western Force.

With Jenkins a doubt hoping to see first up;

1. Vunipola 2. Hibbard 3. A. Jones 4. Gray 5. O'Connell 6. Lydiate 7. Warburton (c) 8. Faletau 9. Murray 10. Farrell 11. Cuthbert 12. Roberts 13. Davies 14. Maitland 15. Halfpenny

16. T. Youngs 17. Jenkins/Healy 18. Stevens 19. A-W. Jones 20. Tipuric 21. Phillips 22. Sexton 23. Hogg

Then for the second hit out;

1. Healy 2. Best 3. Cole 4. Evans 5. A-W. Jones 6. Croft 7. Tipuric 8. Heaslip 9. Phillips 10. Sexton 11. Bowe 12. O'Driscoll (c) 13. Tuilagi 14. North 15. Kearney

16. T. Youngs 17. Jenkins 18. Stevens 19. Parling 20. O'Brien 21. B. Youngs 22. Farrell 23. Hogg

And then T. Youngs, Jenkins, Stevens, Parling, O'Brien, B. Youngs and Hogg to all start against the Reds.

I think that saysing "Welsh players have had two weeks together" marginalises the others and has to be avoided, there's all the Scots some English and some Irish there with them.

Hopefully someone had a word with him to avoid such things in future.

I do have a slight worry about bias, I expect some bias, it would be silly not to, he will go with someone that he knows what they can do, rather than thinks they can do, but agree with the above until the test team is picked we won't know.

"I think that saysing "Welsh players have had two weeks together" marginalises the others and has to be avoided, there's all the Scots some English and some Irish there with them."

Then we are lucky that the players see it and think about it differently

What Gatland is choosing to do is to categorize the players he chose. I don't think he realises that he simply doesn't need to do this as the fans themselves will fill in the Nationality arguments both now and throughout the tour.

"Some of our players have had two weeks together now" - that's all it needs.

But again, Gatland is perhaps being more instinctively honest too about the whole design of a Lions tour than perhaps many of the fans. It is and always will be a campaign with a hidden agenda of "how well our lads do as distinct from how your lads get on".

There is bias in the coaching, bias in the media train that follows along, bias in the players, bias with the fans. Four Unions, one team. Competition exists throughout the whole process not just when meeting the designated Opponent Nation.

The only bias Gatland has is for talented rugby players.

It just so happens that the best players in Britain and Ireland are currently welsh and they have proven this time and time again in the six nations.

If anything there has been a biased in favour of English and Scottish players. Matt Stevens, Richard Gray, Owen Farrel, and Geoff Parling would have struggled to get on the trip if they were welsh.

If Dan Biggar was Scottish, you can bet your bottom dollar he would be a Lion.

Scrumdown wrote:The only bias Gatland has is for talented rugby players.

A bias for clinically prepared players. Remember the fitness level shock lines a week ago?

I think need to think about things here for a second.

We saw on Sunday that a scratch side with talent (the Baa Baas) is poor...what Gatland has rightly done is base the bulk of the squad on probably the strongest 6n at the moment. This way the will be settled have great knowledge of each other, and from here the best of the rest can be bolted in.
It is the correct method. He will be aware that the Wales team have fallen short at nearly every attempt, but hopefully adding in a few top player from elsewhere will push them to victory.

Now the problem i do see...is if certain players dont look to be at the races and he still picks them. Lydiate or Phillips or AWJ etc etc

It may be that at the moment Gatland does have a slightly Welsh bias but that is only natural since those are the players he knows the best. But if there is one thing you can be sure of with Gatland it is that he wants to win. If he thinks that means playing no Welshmen then that is what he will do. If he thinks it means playing 15 then the same applies. If it comes down to a 50-50 call then he will either go for an established combination (Lydiate-Warburton has long been his favourite for Wales) or players he knows - which makes perfect sense to anyone who has coached any team sport.

The simple fact is that all 37 players are Lions playing for the Lions and as soon as they put on that shirt which of the 4 countries they come from makes no difference whatsoever.

Scrumdown wrote:The only bias Gatland has is for talented rugby players.

It just so happens that the best players in Britain and Ireland are currently welsh and they have proven this time and time again in the six nations.

If anything there has been a biased in favour of English and Scottish players. Matt Stevens, Richard Gray, Owen Farrel, and Geoff Parling would have struggled to get on the trip if they were welsh.

If Dan Biggar was Scottish, you can bet your bottom dollar he would be a Lion.

Six Nations isn't playing against the SH though, a bias shown towards English and Scottish players. Honestly Scrum, whatever your smoking you need to take a break.

Not concerned in the slightest. Fully behind you and all you are doing Warren

Interesting to see how he is quoted in the Western Wail. I guess people with a certain agenda can read/write it in a certain way.

Gatland said he welcomed the confidence those who have been successful with their clubs have brought into the Lions camp and said the decision to call up Best for Hartley had been automatic.

He added: “It’s always good when players arrive with confidence and a bit of a spring in their step.

“That’s been obvious with the Leinster and Leicester players and, to a certain extent, someone like Gethin Jenkins from Toulon.

“It’s a real boost to have that confidence in the squad.

“The players who have been here the last couple of weeks have trained very well too and there is a real good vibe in the squad at the moment.

How many times is Gatland going to be hounded by criticism when he talks about anything welsh before he's even got the full party together?

Right now he was questioned about a welsh heavy ba baa's line up wasn't he, and he justified what we all know will be at least 14/15 welsh players in the squad as that theyve spent 2 weeks longer with him than the others, if he was questioned about Farell being selected over Sexton I'm sure he wouldve said the same thing but subbed welsh out with Farell.

Am I worried about the pressures on Gatland for selecting a very welsh test team? no because it's not expected, there are however going to be pressure and criticism of him doing so, the media will jump on him if he selects 12 welshmen for test 1, but with recent form that may well be the case with possibly 10 welshmen the form or quality and favourite in their position. I expect the presure on Gatland will be for a higher mix of players with the media pressure being highest the less Englishmen make the test team.

SecretFly wrote:

Scrumdown wrote:The only bias Gatland has is for talented rugby players.

A bias for clinically prepared players. Remember the fitness level shock lines a week ago?

You make it sound as if the Ireland, England and Scotland squads are bristling with steppers and ball players which is ofcourse a lie.

Yes he is biased. He probably wants to make up for the 5-0 losses against Australia for Wales and will play a primarily Welsh flavoured team with the odd paddy or hooray henry thrown in (apologies to the hairyskirt wearing nation).

No doubt it will be a glorious failure...

DOD wrote:Yes he may well be biased. He probably wants to make up for the 54 -0 losses against Australia for Wales and may well play a primarily Welsh flavoured team with the odd paddy Irishmen or hooray henryEnglishmen thrown in (apologies to my hairyskirt Sctottish bretherin).

No doubt it will be a glorious failureSUCCESS...

Actually a decent point, maybe he will eye this up as a bit of revenge, I hadn't considered that.

thebluesmancometh wrote:

DOD wrote:Yes he may well be biased. He probably wants to make up for the 54 -0 losses against Australia for Wales and may well play a primarily Welsh flavoured team with the odd paddy Irishmen or hooray henryEnglishmen thrown in (apologies to my hairyskirt Sctottish bretherin).

No doubt it will be a glorious failureSUCCESS...

Actually a decent point, maybe he will eye this up as a bit of revenge, I hadn't considered that.

Worse than my old English teacher....although he could spell Scottish Brethren...

thebluesmancometh wrote:

DOD wrote:Yes he may well be biased. He probably wants to make up for the 54 -0 losses against Australia for Wales and may well play a primarily Welsh flavoured team with the odd paddy Irishmen or hooray henryEnglishmen thrown in (apologies to my hairyskirt Sctottish bretherin).

No doubt it will be a glorious failureSUCCESS...

Actually a decent point, maybe he will eye this up as a bit of revenge, I hadn't considered that.

I do not think Gatland has a Welsh bias - though he will tend to favour those he knows better, which will equally apply to players who went on the last Lions tour. That is human nature.

Just wondering though, whether the correction to 4 losses is correct?

LT, I think he means Gatland's personal losses to Aus with Wales. The others were Howley's.

Scrumdown wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Scrumdown wrote:The only bias Gatland has is for talented rugby players.

A bias for clinically prepared players. Remember the fitness level shock lines a week ago?

You make it sound as if the Ireland, England and Scotland squads are bristling with steppers and ball players which is ofcourse a lie.

Scrumdown

You do realise the 6Ns was in Feb/Mar 2013 that's quite a while ago in fact almost three months you cannae consider that form.

Since then (THATS Mar/Apr/May) the talented players i.e. The HC semi finalists, and finalists, The Aviva Premiership play-off teams, and the Rabbo Direct play-off teams have all been playing high intensity games....... whilst most the "talented Welsh" with the exception of the Scarlets players (and North has been so far off-form its unbelievable) have been twiddling their thumbs either playing dead rubber matches or in the case of some not playing at all.

IMHO of the Welsh players only Lee Byrne and maybe Liam Williams/Jon Davies have played well in high intensity matches since the 6Ns ended, two of them are not Lions even.

What's worrying even more is Gatland has selected "high risk" options, firstly Hartley with his temperament issues although he has been on cracking form since March and now we understand that Jenkins has suffered a recurrence of his long-standing calf problem, which has him out of the tour warm-up in Hong Kong on Saturday. So basically he has missed all the training camps and what is Gatlands Ruling: Don't attend at least one training camp then you wont be considered.

"He's had on-going problems with his calf for a long, long time but the physios are confident he'll be available for the second or the third game so it shouldn't hamper him too much

Yes Mr Gatland if you have a bias for FORM and TALENT have a butchers at players who have been fit and performing well since the 6Ns, and hopefully not a bias for a nationality

Scrumdown wrote:The only bias Gatland has is for talented rugby players.

It just so happens that the best players in Britain and Ireland are currently welsh and they have proven this time and time again in the six nations.

If anything there has been a biased in favour of English and Scottish players. Matt Stevens, Richard Gray, Owen Farrel, and Geoff Parling would have struggled to get on the trip if they were welsh.

If Dan Biggar was Scottish, you can bet your bottom dollar he would be a Lion.

Not sure how you can justify that last comment given that only three Scottish players are going, none of which are half-backs. Also, the Six Nations table of the last four years has England (very marginally) on top, and they've got a better record vs the Southern Hemisphere.

I don't mind Gatland going for players he knows better when all other things are equal - it would be a bit thick of him not to - but the idea that Welsh players are currently light years ahead of the other three countries, particularly England and Ireland, has little basis in fact.

He could well be bias, when you consider that Gethin Jenkins has suffered a Calf Injury again, and yet as kept him in the squad ( in case he regains full fitness.) What if he does not get fully fit? will he send a "NONE WELSH" Replacement?

I guess we will wait and see right.

This idea that there will be an equal standing of players and the difference will be nationality or familiarity is a bit off IMHO.

There will always be a key element of one player favoured over another such as Hibbards size, experience and set peice over Youngs, Roberts reliability and experience over Tuilagi, BOD's experience and ability ball in hand over Davies etc etc...

In every key battle there will be a quality prefered by Gatland and familiarity won't really come into it.

majesticimperialman wrote:He could well be bias, when you consider that Gethin Jenkins has suffered a Calf Injury again, and yet as kept him in the squad ( in case he regains full fitness.) What if he does not get fully fit? will he send a "NONE WELSH" Replacement?

I guess we will wait and see right.

The 2 replacement options are Grant and James and both were overlooked by more dynamic options in Jenkins and Vunipola so I wouldn't hold my breathe, if Geths on his own feet he's on the tour.

thebluesmancometh wrote:This idea that there will be an equal standing of players and the difference will be nationality or familiarity is a bit off IMHO.

There will always be a key element of one player favoured over another such as Hibbards size, experience and set peice over Youngs, Roberts reliability and experience over Tuilagi, BOD's experience and ability ball in hand over Davies etc etc...

In every key battle there will be a quality prefered by Gatland and familiarity won't really come into it.

I'm not sure about that. I think that his having a detailed knowledge of a particular player's game will inevitably, and quite rightly, be something that Gatland takes into account. That will be behind the selection of Lydiate and also that of Croft, who he worked with four years ago. The fact that he goes into the tour with a pre-existing relationship with, and detailed understanding of, a player gives him an edge in preparation.

At the end of the day the selection isn't about fairness - it's about winning the series. I may feel that Wood or Robshaw deserved to go more than Lydiate and Croft, but if Gatland's knowledge of them gives the Lions any sort of edge then it's the right call.

thomh wrote:

thebluesmancometh wrote:This idea that there will be an equal standing of players and the difference will be nationality or familiarity is a bit off IMHO.

There will always be a key element of one player favoured over another such as Hibbards size, experience and set peice over Youngs, Roberts reliability and experience over Tuilagi, BOD's experience and ability ball in hand over Davies etc etc...

In every key battle there will be a quality prefered by Gatland and familiarity won't really come into it.

I'm not sure about that. I think that his having a detailed knowledge of a particular player's game will inevitably, and quite rightly, be something that Gatland takes into account. That will be behind the selection of Lydiate and also that of Croft, who he worked with four years ago. The fact that he goes into the tour with a pre-existing relationship with, and detailed understanding of, a player gives him an edge in preparation.

At the end of the day the selection isn't about fairness - it's about winning the series. I may feel that Wood or Robshaw deserved to go more than Lydiate and Croft, but if Gatland's knowledge of them gives the Lions any sort of edge then it's the right call.

Ye I see your point but Gatland has spent the last 10 months or so assessing options, watching and seeing players abilities etc, not to mention working with the majority of the squad in the past. He should know the in's and outs of every squad members abilities by now, and I'd dare to suggest the analysis team would have been like family members over the past few months. If Gatland doesn't know anything about a player by now he hasn't done much of a job

thebluesmancometh wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:He could well be bias, when you consider that Gethin Jenkins has suffered a Calf Injury again, and yet as kept him in the squad ( in case he regains full fitness.) What if he does not get fully fit? will he send a "NONE WELSH" Replacement?

I guess we will wait and see right.

The 2 replacement options are Grant and James and both were overlooked by more dynamic options in Jenkins and Vunipola so I wouldn't hold my breathe, if Geths on his own feet he's on the tour.

Are you seriously suggesting that Grant is not as dynamic as Jenkins or Vunipola. If I was you I would get on UTube and type in Glasgow 19-3 Ospreys that will reveal just how dynamic Grant is (two tries by the way) at the same time have a looksy at the Glasow 15-17 Leinster Rabbo semi when a barnstorming angled run almost produced a try........... if you want further evidence have a butchers at the Scotland v Wales 6Ns match and see how speedy around the park Grant was.

flyhalffactory wrote:

thebluesmancometh wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:He could well be bias, when you consider that Gethin Jenkins has suffered a Calf Injury again, and yet as kept him in the squad ( in case he regains full fitness.) What if he does not get fully fit? will he send a "NONE WELSH" Replacement?

I guess we will wait and see right.

The 2 replacement options are Grant and James and both were overlooked by more dynamic options in Jenkins and Vunipola so I wouldn't hold my breathe, if Geths on his own feet he's on the tour.

Are you seriously suggesting that Grant is not as dynamic as the Jenkins or Vunipola. If I was you I would get on UTube and type in Glasgow 19-3 Ospreys that will reveal just how dynamic Grant is (two tries by the way)........... if you want further evidence have a butchers at the Scotland v Wales 6Ns match and see how speedy around the park Grant was.

Well Gatlands pack is based around dynamism and he's selected both above Grant (I'd tend to agree with him) so wether you perceive grant as more dynamic, or even if he might actually be he has been left home for a reason, especially when you consider how many weaknesses Vunipola has in his game. I'd say Jenkins is the most dynamic and has a better engine than just about any prop in world rugby (he certainly holds records for testing and timing) but maybe dynamism was the wrong word outright, maybe the combination of dynamism, power comdined with strengths etc...

I probably agree with you a FIT Jenkins is the best option (and he was bloody good in the 6Ns), but he obviously isn't fit and might not be until the 3rd game (he hasn't been that hot for his club this season and didn't set the match alight when he came on for Toulon in the HC final).

Do you think it is strange that we are taking a player who will not be fit until maybe the 3rd game of a 10 game series?.

thebluesmancometh wrote:
Ye I see your point but Gatland has spent the last 10 months or so assessing options, watching and seeing players abilities etc, not to mention working with the majority of the squad in the past. He should know the in's and outs of every squad members abilities by now, and I'd dare to suggest the analysis team would have been like family members over the past few months. If Gatland doesn't know anything about a player by now he hasn't done much of a job

That's fair, but are video analysis and references from coaches really any substitute for coaching the player yourself and seeing first hand how they train and how they react to tactical instructions, not to mention the player understanding your style of coaching? I'm not a coach so I'm just speculating here, but it seems like they could be just as important as technical details about a player's strengths and weaknesses.

Wales win a Grand Slam in 2005 and the Lions take 20 english players

Wales win the Slam in 2012 and the Championship after a 30-3 mauling of England in 2013 and Gatland picks 15 welsh players.

That's some bias lads - The only bias on here is from non-welsh fans against Gatland. My advice is get over it and to stop looking for things that are not there:thumbsup:

majesticimperialman wrote:He could well be bias, when you consider that Gethin Jenkins has suffered a Calf Injury again, and yet as kept him in the squad ( in case he regains full fitness.) What if he does not get fully fit? will he send a "NONE WELSH" Replacement?

I guess we will wait and see right.

So if you were Warren Gatland, you would just have cut him from the squad straight away? I didn't think his injury was too bad?

RubyGuby wrote:Wales win a Grand Slam in 2005 and the Lions take 20 english players

Wales win the Slam in 2012 and the Championship after a 30-3 mauling of England in 2013 and Gatland picks 15 welsh players.

That's some bias lads - The only bias on here is from non-welsh fans against Gatland. My advice is get over it and to stop looking for things that are not there

Risca Rev wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:He could well be bias, when you consider that Gethin Jenkins has suffered a Calf Injury again, and yet as kept him in the squad ( in case he regains full fitness.) What if he does not get fully fit? will he send a "NONE WELSH" Replacement?

I guess we will wait and see right.

So if you were Warren Gatland, you would just have cut him from the squad straight away? I didn't think his injury was too bad?

RiscaRev.

My point is that Gethin Jenkins might not be (fully fit) for atleast 3 games. It is a 10 match series, if he does not regain his full fitness. Can the Lions afford too carry a player/s that might not play in any games?

What more could Gatland do?
Since the 2009 Lions tour Wales have won a Granslam Triple crown,Championship and got further than any other home nation in the 2011 worldcup!
It would have been a crime if he didn't pick the majority of Welsh players.

Ireland since the 09 Lions tour have won sod all but have as always done well at Provincial level.

England one championship.

Scotland as useless as ever.

Gatland should have pickd a few more Irish players in stead of there English counterparts.

thomh wrote:

thebluesmancometh wrote:
Ye I see your point but Gatland has spent the last 10 months or so assessing options, watching and seeing players abilities etc, not to mention working with the majority of the squad in the past. He should know the in's and outs of every squad members abilities by now, and I'd dare to suggest the analysis team would have been like family members over the past few months. If Gatland doesn't know anything about a player by now he hasn't done much of a job

That's fair, but are video analysis and references from coaches really any substitute for coaching the player yourself and seeing first hand how they train and how they react to tactical instructions, not to mention the player understanding your style of coaching? I'm not a coach so I'm just speculating here, but it seems like they could be just as important as technical details about a player's strengths and weaknesses.

Ye I probably agree with you, theres nothing like asking players to try something in training and see how they respond, then see how the same players execute the same things during matches too. I think in regards to raw ability and performance though most of what we see over the course of a tournament such as the 6N is an indicator of what we can expect from a player.

Flyhalf

I definately get that Jenkins has had a really poor season, and I was calling for him to not be selected for the AI's or 6N, and in the first 2 games of each he was poor, highlighting his fitness issues (or match rustiness maybe more accurately) but he definately finished both the AI's and 6N in storming true Jenkins form.

That said Healy is still a better option for me for the first test, and I relish the thought of seein him with Hibbard and Cole

Maj, the report says that Jenkins will miss the warm up game vs the Baa Baas, but should be available next week. Therefore, your 'not fit for at least 3 games' is either a guess into the future or an exaggeration.

Griff wrote:Maj, the report says that Jenkins will miss the warm up game vs the Baa Baas, but should be available next week. Therefore, your 'not fit for at least 3 games' is either a guess into the future or an exaggeration.

In reality regardless of what happens in the 7 warmup games winning the 3 tests will determine the success or failure of the tour, so carrying a player until the game or 2 before the first test is probably doable, as long as that player can get at least a full game or so in before being considered for a test spot.

Missing the first 3 matches with a monor injury is ok, 4/5 is on the cusp and anything else rules them out for me, after all there will be knocks and players will miss the odd game or 2 through injury, once the plane has left you really have to work with what you have and replace the players who have no chance of making test 1