Federer's Grand Slam streak records

As everyone knows, Federer has re-written the record books in terms of streaks in reaching consecutive GS finals, semi-finals and quarter finals:
Finals - 10 consetive finals (also next best with 8 - 1 semi-final loss between the two streaks)
Semi-finals: 23
Quarter-final: 36 (active).

My reason for starting this thread was not to emphasise Roger's greatness, but to look at what will be required for someone to break any of these records, especially for active players.

Obviously, given their recent injury absences, Nadal and Murray are no-where with regard to current streaks (Andy had a streak of 3 GS finals prior, but was very unlikely to extend this in Paris even if fit). Rafa's best streaks have been 5 finals, 5 semi finals and 11 quarter finals.

Now to Djokovic:
Finals - best run of 4, currently 2 (could extend to 3 today)
Semi-finals - 12, currently active and second best ever (previously 10, Lendl and Laver)
Quarter finals - 16, currently active.

So to equal Federer's streak records, he needs to maintain each streak until:
Final - Australian Open 2015
Semi-final - Australian Open 2016
Quarter final - no earlier than French Open 2018.

Given how solidly Novak appears to be #1 at the moment, Federer apparently becoming less of a force at the top of the game, Nadal's issues with chronic knee problems (suggesting he will have to manage his schedule and may not be as effective on hard courts over the next few years) and the apparent lack of young players coming through to challenge the top 3 or 4, I can see him having some chance of getting close or even bettering the first and particularly 2nd of these - will take some playing and a bit of luck with injuries / fitness, but it looks feasible.

The quarter final record though - can't see Djoko being able to keep up his human backboard routine as effectively at 31, so I think that's probably too far away.

If a new Federer / Sampras / Borg was to emerge at Wimbledon (and there's not much evidence of anyone at that sort of level coming through in the near future), they would equal Federer's streak records at:
Finals - USO 16
Semi final - AO 20
Quarter final - not before French Open 23.

Thoughts / comments welcome

I can't really see Novak matching any of those.

His current semi final streak of 12 is pretty amazing (as you say, second best ever) but to break Fed's record, he has to repeat that number!

I can imagine him still making finals when he is 28/29 but to make every final until then? No, I can't see it.

HM

I think the semi-final streak is the one Novak has the best chance of matching, although even then its a low probability (<25%). I can see him losing today, so resetting the finals streak, and if not he will probably still have to get past one of Nadal or Federer as a semi-finalist at Wimbledon - given he adapts less well to grass that either of them, those are tough match-ups there.

Good statistics, dummy_half. I was pondering this very question the other day, and was thinking that Novak had more than a decent shot at a few of the streaks - but seeing it written down in this manner shows the monumental task facing him.

I think it's safe to say that the finals record is out of reach, especially after today. With Nadal still a force at the French, and others capable of turfing him out before the final at Wimbledon in particular, surely ten on the trot is a bridge too far?

SF record is the one I think he can match. Realistically, unless we see a freak set of seeding circumstances - such as Federer, Nadal or Murray being seeded at #5 for Wimbledon, I can't see any of the lower ranked players taking out Novak prior to the semi. I know Tsonga came close last year, but I do feel that there's the same inevitability in Novak reaching the SF stage that there used to be regarding Federer in his pomp. He has a shot at this.

QF streak will take a massive effort, particularly as Federer could still extent it yet. Above all though, Novak's records are already absolutely astonishing - second best for consecutive SF (and counting!) is hugely impressive, regardless of arguments about conditions. He's a very special player, and looking at his streaks in comparison to Nadal in particular only highlights that fact. It's just that Federer's records are ridiculous, no shame in not being able to overcome them. It shows how consistent Fedex really was, despite largely being considered a flair player. As his peak, and even beyond, he was a juggernaut that could not be stopped before a semi-final, irrespective of surface. I consider Novak to be of the same mould, now.

Incredible numbers, can't see them being broken by anyone in the Men's game. However MN has them beaten hands down - CELMN (Chris Evert Lloyd Mills Norman) has good numbers but they're not consecutive as MN's are.

Novak - will be interesting to see -he, like Federer, seem to be players that will make those last two rounds with incredible consistency. Hard to see them having 1st, 2nd or 3rd round upset losses as did so many of the All Time Greats, in their dominant periods. Tennis is a different "beast" now, but numbers are numbers.

Djoko's SF streak is potentially vulnerable to meeting JWT on one of his 'unstoppable' days on grass or possibly Berdych hitting a purple patch at USO?

What is so amazing about these v. long streaks is the absence of any injury at the important times, especially during the modern game.

Of all Fed's I think that the 23 SF's is possibly the most extraordinary - nearly 6 years without losing in the QF - although the two final streaks of 10 and 8 are amazing too. Interestingly, he benefited from consistency in the order of things i.e. for most of those streaks Nadal was seeded to avoid him until the final - poor old Djoko has just faced Nadal in the SF.

Yea the real struggle for Djoko will be on Wimbledon, I see he is more than capable of reaching semi's in other slams, but in Wimby he can get knocked out if a good grass court player like Haas meets him before semi's.

Fed's SF and QF streaks will be very hard to break. The chances are Djokovic will have an injury or a shock defeat sooner or later, most other greats do. I bet Sampras's best wasn't great for instance. let me check it out.

Pete managed 10 consecutive quarters from French 92 - Wimbledon 94.

His best streak of semi finalists is only 3. Although he also has a best streak of 3 for finals and even for wins (W 93 - AO 94).

For what it's worth, I would argue that Murray's streaks are still "active" and that if he reaches the Wimbledon final, he would have reached four consecutive finals.

ryan86 wrote:For what it's worth, I would argue that Murray's streaks are still "active" and that if he reaches the Wimbledon final, he would have reached four consecutive finals.

No a streak breaks if you miss an event

Otherwise Nadal could've said he was a 2 time defending Wimbledon champion heading into 2011 Wimbledon, after he won 2008, missed 2009 and won 2010.