Nadal's ranking

I know it is a little bit too early but I could not wait to start looking ahead. One interesting question is, will Nadal make it to #1 by year-end?

Let's assume he wins tomorrow (I recognize it may be that Daveed Ferrer gonna win the slam without losing a set, in which case I will revamp some of the analysis tomorrow, but for now, let's just go on the assumption that Rafa wins, to make the analysis simpler).

If he does, he will be at 6895 points. He will drop 45 points from Wimby (nothing from Halle, as that one is already non-countable), bringing him to 6850 points.

Question 1: How many points should we expect him to win this year after RG?

I looked at all years from 2005 to see how Rafa fared in the period after RG, and this is how many points he amassed each year:

Year	Points
2011	3225
2010	6265
2009	2400
2008	6300
2007	4120
2006	3100
2005	3440

(note that before 2008, slams were worth 1,000 points, so I doubled points from 2007 and earlier; there was also another smaller change in points system that I made no adjustment for).

What to make of it? In a good year, he can do 6,000+ points, a more "typical" year would have him maybe between 3,000 and 4,000 points, let's assume he is better off clay than in his early years and say that an "ordinary" year will net him around 4,000 points.

So, for the year end total, he could be looking at somewhere between 10,800 and 13,000 points.

Question 2: How many points for #1 at year-end?

It will most likely be enough for #2, but it can be quite close for #1. Nole is currently at 12,310. For further reference, here are the point totals that the year-end #1 player had in the last few years:

Year	Points
2012	12920
2011	13630
2010	12450
2009	10550
2008	13350
2007	14360
2006	16740

So, maybe somewhere between 12,000 and 13,000 is where he should expect to need to be.

Question 3: What do I make of it?

All in all, I expect it will be relatively hard for Rafa to make it. He may well need to reach about 12,500 or more points, which would mean he will need to come close to reproducing his 2008 or 2010 second halves of the season. It is certainly doable, but I would give it less than 50% odds.

Of course, if he is lucky, Nole can slip and if Andy does not do very well either, the total required for #1 could be lower this year.

Also, it should be noted that even if he does not make #1 at year end, he will still have a good chance early next year, when he will be able to gain points at AO and other early season tournaments.

Great to see the stats, very interesting reading. He MAY do it, may not, but to me, it's the Major titles that are of interest. Where-ever he finishes in the Year End rankings, nothing will mean as much as what he does in the two remaining Majors of 2013.

Prior to his loss to Rosol, he had made the finals of Wimbledon the last 5 times he had played the tournament, so one hopes if the French Open (whatever tomorrow's result is) doesn't take too much out of his body (read knees), then there's significant points to be made.

Hard court season is a little more of a question mark as it hasn't traditionally been a huge points "time" for him. But even if it's a question of him remaining on the tour with the South American clay court swing, the European clay court season, grass season and little else - it's still a pleasure to have him back and he brings so much to the game.

Hoping he's going to be fit to contribute significantly year round but if not and he continues to rule on the clay, I for one, am grateful to have him around as long as possible.

Time and again we have seen its very difficult to defend the points and if some body gets a massive lead in the race they are very likely the no.1 in the year end ratings.

Nadal has 5000 points to 4300 points in the Race, thats without counting FO, so if Rafa wins FO he will get a further 1280 lead which would take him close to 2000 point lead, this lead will be very difficult to overcome since 5 players plus some underdogs will be happy to steal the points on every given opportunity.

So if Rafa takes the title in Wimbledon it will seal the rankings on his favor.

Btw nice stats and artilce