Lions Head to Head - who misses out?

The team selection for Saturday is giving clues as to the first test starters - but only clues in my opinion.  The few number of games, relative weakness of some of the oposition teams, and injury list will mean that Gatland will make some selections based on reputation and limited observation (some might argue that he was always going to do that).  In most poistions I think there are two strong contenders and so I've set them out as such and indicated my preference for the opening test 23.  I don't think I'm far from what Gatland will choose, assuming no more injuries. (I didn't consider Healsip, Jenkins or Bowe)


  Starter          Close 2nd        Missing Out
1.Corbisiero      Vunipola         Grant             (Grant might still feature)
2.Hibbard          Youngs           Best              (Best, clearly not at his Best)
3.Jones              Cole               Stevens          (Stevens, only there to lead the singing)
4.Gray                AWJ               Evans             (Evans hasn't shone enough)
5.POC              Parling
6.O'Brien         Croft               Lydiate           (Lydiate not at his best, but imo will feature in one of the tests)
7.Warburton     Tipuric
8.Heaslip         Faletau
9.Phillips            Youngs           Murray            (Murray mid week cover)
10.Sexton          Farrell
11.North          Zebo
12.Roberts         Tuilagi            Twelvetrees      (36 probably mid week cover)
13.BOD             Davies
14.Maitland       Cuthbert  
15.Halfpenny     Hogg              Kearney            (Kearney, unlucky but could force his contention)

Bold is my starting 23

Go on..tell me how wrong I am.

Pretty good shout, to be fair. I have a niggling feeling that Croft may well get the nod at 6. He was picked for the game v the Reds and now again this Saturday and both times with Warbs. Gatland will also have very good memories of Croft from the SA tour in 09.

I agree with your choice at 1, but think they will give Vunipola first shot at the starting position.

Other than that, I think people are going to have a stormer to play themselves in to contention, or a terrible game to rule themselves out.

Your 'missing out' players are right I believe.

Close shouts at 2,6,7,9,12 if players were chosen on form though.

Apart from Tipuric who is way ahead on form.

I'm trying to work out what Kearney has done on the tour to warrant being ahead of Hogg, is it that he hasn't missed a tackle, dropped a kick or thrown a bad pass?

123456789 wrote:I'm trying to work out what Kearney has done on the tour to warrant being ahead of Hogg, is it that he hasn't missed a tackle, dropped a kick or thrown a bad pass?

imo he isn't ahead of Hogg.  Hogg is very much in contention and could make it onto the bench for the first test.  Kearney will need a very big game to show he is back to his best.

offload wrote:

123456789 wrote:I'm trying to work out what Kearney has done on the tour to warrant being ahead of Hogg, is it that he hasn't missed a tackle, dropped a kick or thrown a bad pass?

imo he isn't ahead of Hogg.  Hogg is very much in contention and could make it onto the bench for the first test.  Kearney will need a very big game to show he is back to his best.

Oh yeah sorry, I read that wrong the first time somehow.

Is Maitland ahead of Cuthbert, admittedly Cuthberts' defence is suspect but he takes his chances very well when he gets them.

I also think it would be harsh on Mako if he didn't start

bedfordwelsh wrote:Is Maitland ahead of Cuthbert, admittedly Cuthberts' defence is suspect but he takes his chances very well when he gets them.

I also think it would be harsh on Mako if he didn't start

I would bench Mako and bring him on as an impact player. Corbs or Grant will be better in the scrum

Either Grant or Corbs to start. Vunipolo is an impact player. For me the only players nailed on the bench at the moment is Vunipolo and Stuart Hogg.
Definite test starters for me are Adam, Paul (would like Parling to pair with Paul but I doubt he will), Sam (should be tipuric though), Mike, Sexton, Jami, BOD and Leigh. Still believe the rest of the spaces are up for grabs
For me I would like grant to start, the best looshead throughout the six nations by a  mile and has been great for Glasgow all season. Deserves a shot

Jhamer25 wrote:Either Grant or Corbs to start. Vunipolo is an impact player. For me the only players nailed on the bench at the moment is Vunipolo and Stuart Hogg.
Definite test starters for me are Adam, Paul (would like Parling to pair with Paul but I doubt he will), Sam (should be tipuric though), Mike, Sexton, Jami, BOD and Leigh. Still believe the rest of the spaces are up for grabs
For me I would like grant to start, the best looshead throughout the six nations by a  mile and has been great for Glasgow all season. Deserves a shot

I was surprised not to see Grant start vs the Tah's.

I'll be disappointed if Phillips starts ahead of Youngs. Big Mike's passing and kicking are not up to the same standard and Benny offers a much greater creative instinct. Add to that Ben's far better record against Aus.

maestegmafia wrote:

Jhamer25 wrote:Either Grant or Corbs to start. Vunipolo is an impact player. For me the only players nailed on the bench at the moment is Vunipolo and Stuart Hogg.
Definite test starters for me are Adam, Paul (would like Parling to pair with Paul but I doubt he will), Sam (should be tipuric though), Mike, Sexton, Jami, BOD and Leigh. Still believe the rest of the spaces are up for grabs
For me I would like grant to start, the best looshead throughout the six nations by a  mile and has been great for Glasgow all season. Deserves a shot

I was surprised not to see Grant start vs the Tah's.

---

I wasn't

Gatland obviously does not like the look of Grant as a player, so did everything in his power not to select him and now is unlikely to give him a chance to prove himself - form only works for Gatland when he wants to - ah well

On the above, tend to agree with most of the list.

Well using Petes test 15 poll I've plumped for..

Mako
Hibbard
Jones
Gray
POC (capt)
SOB
Tips
Heaslip
Youngs
Sexton
North
Manu
BOD
Maitland
Halfp

POC and BOD worry me, they deserve to be in the team but I can't see them lasting the game much past half time if they start. I think the sub's are going to be very important in the first test as I think Aus will play a fast game to take advantage of the injuries carried into the game and older players (above) in the team. If the Lions can hang on to the ball and slow the game down they will win but I suspect the Lions will kick the ball away giving the game to Aus.

The pack for the game on Saturday will be the test test pack with Phillips and Sexton the halfbacks, Roberts and BOD the centres and North, Cuthbert and 1/2 Penny the back three.

At this rate north isn't going to play because gatland refused to bring in a replacement for Kearney meaning one of our nailed on starters and devastating attacking weapons has been hammered into the ground playing 3 games in 11 days and is now a doubt. Magic. Foden, Brown or an earlier call for zebo would have could have covered wing and fullback, and perhaps bringing one more bloomin flyhalf would mean our most important player gets some rest as well! Oh well the benefit of hindsight I guess, but if our 10 make it to the final test it will be a miracke.....come on lions,!!

How many of the squad ( will actually be fit enough) to start the first test?

The Lions have not been put under that mutch pressure since the tour started, and yet they have been dropping like flies.

sirtidychris wrote:At this rate north isn't going to play because gatland refused to bring in a replacement for Kearney meaning one of our nailed on starters and devastating attacking weapons has been hammered into the ground playing 3 games in 11 days and is now a doubt. Magic. Foden, Brown or an earlier call for zebo would have could have covered wing and fullback, and perhaps bringing one more bloomin flyhalf would mean our most important player gets some rest as well! Oh well the benefit of hindsight I guess, but if our 10 make it to the final test it will be a miracke.....come on lions,!!

+1 agreed, the surprise is, the back row boys are more or less in tacked showing how poor the opposition has been to date. Having only two 10's and an army of wings is stupid considering 1/2Penny and Hog can cover wing very well.

glamorganalun wrote:

sirtidychris wrote:At this rate north isn't going to play because gatland refused to bring in a replacement for Kearney meaning one of our nailed on starters and devastating attacking weapons has been hammered into the ground playing 3 games in 11 days and is now a doubt. Magic. Foden, Brown or an earlier call for zebo would have could have covered wing and fullback, and perhaps  bringing one more bloomin flyhalf would mean our most important player gets some rest as well! Oh well the benefit of hindsight I guess, but if our 10 make it to the final test it will be a miracke.....come on lions,!!

+1 agreed, the surprise is, the back row boys are more or less in tacked showing how poor the opposition has been to date. Having only two 10's and an army of wings is stupid considering 1/2Penny and Hog can cover wing very well.

+1+1

Alun
You can add Kearney to that wing slot as well...........

So that's SEVEN potential wings and just TWO flyhalves. How long had the Lions coaching setup known about the majority of pish poor opponents up to tomorrows match and yet still selected that imbalance of backs......... I find Gatlands mind a dark and scary place and it has no place in rugby Union

He brought 3 flyhalves if I'm not mistaken and has called up another. There were only 2 flyhalves on  the tougher 09 tour and that worked fine.

I agree that not replacing Kearney was strange though. 

With only a limited number of games and only 3 of them competitive, you cannot bring a load of players and only give them limited game time. Add in the fact that you have to test out limited combinations.

Last time a load of players were brought it didn't turn out too well.

Who are the 3 FHs?

Hogg 1/2p Kearney are the FBs
Sexton Farrell are the FHs

In 2009 he had Jones, O'Gara and Hook, with hook picked and played primarily as flyhalf on that tour allowing stephen jones to remain fresh for the 1st test. If injuries occured they also had riki flutey who had signifcant experience of playing flyhalf, unlike stuart hogg who played of couple of games at flyhalf for his childhood club. It makes more sense seeing tom youngs as centre cover than it does seeing hogg as 10 cover...so in 2009 you could argue they had 3/4 fly halfs.