Points Spy - Wimbledon

First topic message reminder :

It's Wimbledon, baby! 

Live Rank	Orig Rank	Player	Orig Points	Drop Points	Gain Points	Live Points	Live Movement	Current Status	Next Opponent
1	1	N. Djokovic [SRB]	11830	720	1200	12310		Eliminated - Final
2	2	A. Murray [GBR]	8560	1200	2000	9360		Champion
3	4	D. Ferrer [ESP]	7220	360	360	7220	Up 1	Eliminated - QF
4	5	R. Nadal [ESP]	6895	45	10	6860	Up 1	Eliminated - R128
5	3	R. Federer [SUI]	7740	2000	45	5785	Down 2	Eliminated - R64
6	6	T. Berdych [CZE]	4515	10	360	4865		Eliminated - QF
7	8	J. Del Potro [ARG]	3960	180	720	4500	Up 1	Eliminated - SF
8	7	J. Tsonga [FRA]	4155	720	45	3480	Down 1	Eliminated - R64
9	9	R. Gasquet [FRA]	3135	180	90	3045		Eliminated - R32
10	10	S. Wawrinka [SUI]	2915	10	10	2915		Eliminated - R128
11	13	T. Haas [GER]	2425	0	180	2605	Up 2	Eliminated - R16
12	11	K. Nishikori [JPN]	2495	90	90	2495	Down 1	Eliminated - R32
13	12	M. Cilic [CRO]	2470	180	45	2335	Down 1	Eliminated - R64
14	14	J. Tipsarevic [SRB]	2390	90	10	2310		Eliminated - R128
15	15	M. Raonic [CAN]	2225	45	45	2225		Eliminated - R64
16	16	N. Almagro [ESP]	2195	90	90	2195		Eliminated - R32
17	22	J. Janowicz [POL]	1549	115	720	2154	Up 5	Eliminated - SF
18	17	G. Simon [FRA]	2090	45	10	2055	Down 1	Eliminated - R128
19	21	J. Isner [USA]	1735	10	45	1770	Up 2	Eliminated - R64
20	20	J. Monaco [ARG]	1740	90	90	1740		Eliminated - R32
		Selected Others:
21	19	S. Querrey [USA]	1810	90	10	1730	Down 2	Eliminated - R128
25	18	P. Kohlschreiber [GER]	1885	360	10	1535	Down 7	Eliminated - R128
35	54	F. Verdasco [ESP]	825	90	360	1095	Up 19	Eliminated - QF
64	130	L. Kubot [POL]	440	45	360	755	Up 66	Eliminated - QF

let's not forget Murray's 2011 clay season, I think he is a little underrated there

just a little

Nadal's two thousand point lead in the point's race has basically been cut in half even if Djokovic loses the final. If he wins it, the two are almost dead even with no more clay court matches and a lot of hardcourt and indoor matches remaining. If Andy beats Novak, Novak will be about 1000 points behind Nadal in the points race with the rest of the season all the surfaces favor Novak. Judging by how rarely Nadal has even played in the indoor swing, the year end #1 is looking more and more secure for Djokovic. If he wins wimbeldon you can basically wrap it up for him.

Feels good to update the table and put "Champion" next to Andy Murray.

I think Andy's No.2 is now safe. I do not see Rafa getting 2000 points more in the section of the season, he normally does the worst

Today marks the first time Roger broke into the top 4 and has stayed there for 10 years!!

Insane!

Murray has actually to score 2000 points more than Nadal in the remainder of the season to stay 2nd.

These are rough figures. In the period post-Wimbledon last year Murray outscores Nadal by 4000pts. However this year it's 7000 vs. 5000 in favour of Nadal in the race.

Plus remember his Olympic points will soon drop off.  

Cogen wrote:Feels good to update the table and put "Champion" next to Andy Murray.

Thats one part of your job (if you can call it that) that has a nice perk to it.

I can't wait for the papers tomorrow, their hype is going to hit a bonanza of self righteous , slap on the back, sanctimonious congratulations.

I dread to think what would have been written if he had lost, such was the journalistic fervour to give him almost outrageous odds to win it.

The stuff of life is made by the width of a broad white line, or in Novak's case, a white band of tape as immobile and unbreakable as a concrete wall.

The sickening thing about the media is their hypocrisy. Seven years ago they tried their utmost to wrongly portray Murray as a bigot and tomorrow they'll be making him the hero. Pathetic.  

Well they won't eat their words for sure CC. They don't like the taste of Humble Pie.

Cogen, I presume Murray will be safe at No2 till at least the WTF? as I dont think Nadal or Ferrer can chase him up till then ?

If Nadal is bothered in any way to play the hard court season, I think he gets the #2 ranking, minimum. But, I think Rafa checks out after USO, no matter what.

kingraf wrote:If Nadal is bothered in any way to play the hard court season, I think he gets the #2 ranking, minimum. But, I think Rafa checks out after USO, no matter what.
   

Depends surely. He'll have to catch Murray, who off clay this year has a record of F, QF, W, W W. If he maintains that sort of form then Nadal isn't getting number 2.

Sorry I've missed one haven't I. It should be W, F, QF, W, W, W. For a guy who has been a bit out of sorts all year, that's a fairly astounding record!

Thanks for maintaining and updating this, Cogen. We're all glad that you do it, stellar work  

Mmm, so the Murray for Number 1 conundrum. Will be easier to work out once Cogen's Wind Down is updated, but I suspect Paris would be the first real realistic chance. So for the rest of the season we'd be looking at Murray to outscore Novak by 1000 points and Nadal by 2000.

ryan86 wrote:Mmm, so the Murray for Number 1 conundrum. Will be easier to work out once Cogen's Wind Down is updated, but I suspect Paris would be the first real realistic chance. So for the rest of the season we'd be looking at Murray to outscore Novak by 1000 points and Nadal by 2000.

Ryan

Remember that Andy is carrying about 600 points more than Djoko from the Olympics that will be dropped and could only be replaced with a countable 500 or 250 (he isn't currently carrying any non-counted tournaments, so will need to play an additional tournament).

Having said that, other than the Olympics and USO, he didn't really do that well in the latter part of 2012 - Masters Series final in Shanghai, but only 90 points to defend in each of Canada, Cinci and Paris, all of which are tournaments he can challenge for or win (Paris is an issue because of holding something back for the WTF).

Realistically, I can't see Andy challenging for the #1 spot until the clay season next year - he should have the scope to add at least 500 points with just an average performance, and if he can do well and get to a couple of SFs.

Yeah, that's why I went for the Year-End. Because with Djokovic winning at the O2(and Shanghai and Beijing) last year I couldn't foresee Murray getting ahead. I'll make a bold prediction that the No 1 into the O2 will be the guy who wins the US Open of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray.

banbrotam wrote:I think Andy's No.2 is now safe. I do not see Rafa getting 2000 points more in the section of the season, he normally does the worst

Are you looking at this the wrong way? Rafa didn't play this section of the season at all last time out, and Murray has to defend the US Open, so Rafa could easily catch up 2,000 points vs last year.

Year end rankings race

1 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 7,010
2 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 6,230
3 Murray, Andy (GBR) 5,160

These look set to be the top 3 don't they. Just a question of the order. Murray has been the 4th best player every year from 2008 to 2012 inclusive. In 2012 he actually finished 3rd because of Rafa's injury. Now's a chance for him to finish higher.

It looks to be a close battle between him and Rafa. Djokovic slight favourite. But they could finish in any order.